Here are all four hands
http://tinyurl.com/ybr8jj38There are several interesting features. Since I had seen the hand it was perhaps a little tough to be objective, but I wanted to see if you or whoever responded would trust that the
Q lay to declarer's right. Or rather trust that enough to play on that assumption. Leading the T from QT, with or without accompanying spots, seems odd enough that I think I would go with the Q being to my right and then see where this leads.
I'll pursue this further, but first I want to say something positive about declarer's line. It didn't work, but it wasn't nuts, once he decided, as he did, to start by drawing trump. It would have worked, for example, if the hands had been
http://tinyurl.com/ydxsl7xqHere I have switched the
Q with a
spot.
He cashed the high club on the board, finessed a club back to his hand, and drew the last trump. He ran his spades, played a heart to his A, a diamond back to the board.
On the board he now has
T!H
Q
In his hand
A J
If either opponent started by holding both the
K and the
Q , something which is just a tad under 50%, that opponent has now either thrown his K or blanked his Q. Since the K has not appeared, he led a
to his A.
So this line works whenever the two red honors are in the same hand, and it also works if the
Q was dealt as a doubleton. That's better than 50%. Whether he had enough evidence to revise the plan after 11 tricks and take the finesse is unclear, but if so he didn't see it. Of course the spades do not have to split 4/3. If they are 5/2 he learns this in time to switch plans and put his faith in diamonds. Qxx onside would bring him home. Actually Qx onside will often work also , with various squeeze possibilities depending on who has the known spade length.
Now back to T1-T2, with thoughts on the trump Q. Let's suppose we are willing to stake the contract on the
Q being with RHO. If spades are 4/3 either direction we have 12 tricks so a
ruff will be the 13th trick. We can get it if diamonds are no worse than 4/2 either way:
T1 J holds, declarer follows with the 3
T2 small
to the 9
T3 small
to the K
T4 T
to he A
T5. Small
to the
K
T6 small
to the 8
Now we pause to see if we are home safe. If diamonds were 3-3 or the Q was doubleton, we now draw the last trump and claim, no longer caring whether spades split or not. We have taken four club, two top diamonds and a ruff, we still have the
J to cash, and then four spades and one heart. That's 13.
If this line does not bring down the
Q then we are still alive if we can bring in five spades. A 4/3 split will do it, but with a little care we might be able to help things along. Suppose LHO was dealt 5=3=4=1. Then cashing the last trump and the high heart will at T7-8 will force him to give up a
or a
, and the hand comes in. It is possible, although less likely, that LHO started with two diamonds. Maybe a 5=5=2=1 shape. But this makes it likely he holds the
K. Thus, if LHO shows up with only two diamonds, cash the
A at T7 , leaving five spades and the
Q on the board. Now, at T8 bit not at T7, cash the last club..LHO has to hold his hypothetical
K , but this forces a
discard. Either way, you have your 13.
Ok, it gets a little complicated at the end, but that happens only because we are trying to cope with a possible 5-2 spade split. If spades are 4-3, we have our contract as soon after four tricks, when the second round of diamonds escapes unruffed.
Now back to T1 and what I think is the most important part. There are various ways to try to bring this in, depending on how the cards might lie. But the crucial clue, I think, is that LHO would not have led the T from any holding that included the Q. If we start with that, then various possibilities emerge. Declarer took a line that would succeed if the
K and the
Q were in the same hand, and would also work if the
Q were doubleton. Over 50%, at least if the spades come in, not bad, but if we assume from the start that the
Q is to our right, we might find something better. Ruffing a third round of diamonds high works if this brings down the Q, works if spades are 3-3 no matte whether the
Q comes down or not, and sometimes works even if spades spades are 5-2 and the diamonds are 4-2 with the Q not falling.
So, repeating the main point, the a priori odds on how the cards lie can be put aside once we deduce, from the opening lead, that the
Q lies to our right. If we take the J at T1, and then finesse the 9 losing to the Q, our LHO is either a mad genius or just mad. But in reality, it simply won't happen. For example, declarer could have AJxx, dummy Kxxx, and partner 9xx. The defense is, or at least probably is, getting a club trick. But no if the lead is the T at T1. [Added: maybe not. I guess, assuming no
is led, and declarer has AJxx with Kxxx on the board, missing the T, the 9 and the Q, there is something to be said for playing to drop the Q after a start of small club to the T-K-x and then x from the board, x on the right. Ah, but then a defender should play the T first round from Tx. This could morph into a digression. Still, I have never seen a trump lead of the T from QT. Paging Zia. ]
