Author Topic: 2023 MAY MSC  (Read 4952 times)

yleexotee

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Re: 2023 MAY MSC
« Reply #15 on: March 31, 2023, 11:34:05 PM »
PROBLEM A: 3 Hearts
PROBLEM B: 3 Hearts
PROBLEM C: 4 Spades - still think this might be too simple, but decided to stick with it.
PROBLEM D: Pass - I went around in circles on this one. but finally as I had noticed in an aside, why wouldn't p bid 2h to start if they wanted to force. The error in my thinking was that 2h was a "new" suit. technically, its a rebid of the 4 hearts already shown.
PROBLEM E: 1 Notrump
PROBLEM F: 1 Notrump
PROBLEM G: (c4)
PROBLEM H: Spade 8 - 2/4 leads I think 8 technically correct if you want to lead the empty spade suit. (I believe I've seen this in past problems, not sure)

JAG

Masse24

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Re: 2023 MAY MSC
« Reply #16 on: March 31, 2023, 11:55:37 PM »

PROBLEM H: Spade 8 - 2/4 leads I think 8 technically correct if you want to lead the empty spade suit. (I believe I've seen this in past problems, not sure)

Second highest from crap if non-consecutive. So with !S 9753 the 7.

From !S 9832 I'm pretty sure the 9 is correct.
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blubayou

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Re: 2023 MAY MSC
« Reply #17 on: April 01, 2023, 04:03:42 PM »
another typo!    for problem D  please mark me down for TWO NT   --not that dumb jump to three
often it is better to beg forgiveness, than ask permission

Masse24

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Re: 2023 MAY MSC
« Reply #18 on: April 02, 2023, 08:39:35 PM »
May Results

CCR3 and Masse24 led the IAC solvers with 760. JCreech was close behind with 740. BabsG had a 720. The Bridge World honor roll this month required a minimum of 710. A high scoring month.

NAMEBW-SCORE
Masse24     760   
CCR3     760 
JCreech     740   
        
        

Also participating this month were:  BluBayou, BabsG, VeredK, YleeXoTee.

Congratulations to all!
“Kindness is the only service that will stand the storm of life and not wash out. It will wear well and will be remembered long after the prism of politeness or the complexion of courtesy has faded away.” Abraham Lincoln

jcreech

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Re: 2023 MAY MSC
« Reply #19 on: April 15, 2023, 04:50:15 PM »
May MSC SUMMARY (Part 1)– Bart Bramley, Director

Problem A  3 !H  (Masse24, JCreech, BabsG, YleeXotee, BluBayou, CCR3, VeredK)

Imps  Both sides vulnerable
You, South, hold:

♠ A J    Q 9 8 6 4 3    Q J 7   ♣ A 8

SOUTH   WEST   NORTH   EAST
  ——      ——      ——       1 ♣
  1        1 ♠        2        Double*
   ?         
*three spades

What call do you make?

With 14 HCPs and six hearts, you have a nice hand, but your primes are in short suits, and you have soft values in the diamonds.  How good is your hand, really?  At the table, given that it is imps, I might try bidding game, gambling that partner's values are working in concert with mine.  But this is MSC, so thinking through the strengths and weaknesses of the hand are important.  Everyone is bidding, which lends itself to a partscore and competing, but the right values from partner could make game a laydown, which suggests making a game try.

3    100   Bridge World Panel (BWP) 34%   Bridge World solvers (BWS) 59%  Intermediate-Advanced Club (IAC) 100%
IAC is all in with 3 !H, while the BW solvers make it their majority choice and the Panel, their plurality choice.  Most view this action as purely a competive action.  Masse24 thinks to "Jam their auction. Unanimous?" but his prediction only works for the IAC solvers.  Kit Woolsey: "I will want to compete to three hearts, and this isn't worth a game-try, so I don't see Plan B."  Jeff Rubens is "Hoping to profit from unresolved ambiguities in the East-West bidding."  Billy Eisenberg: "Bidding my limit before the opponents have a chance to discover what they can make."  Ross Grabell: "To make it uncomfortable fot he other side to compete."  Pratap Rajadhyaksha thinks "I will need to bid this eventually, so I might as well impede the opponents.  Game is remote with flat shape, slow values, and no cue-bid from partner."  Kevin Rosenberg struggled:  "Almost all the decent games I can construct give North a hnd worth a cue-bid."  I agree with JoAnna Stansby: "Too many losers for a game try."  Resulting in Sartaj Hans' observation: "After a game-try, North would too often accept when game has no play.  Three hearts will miss some close games but avoid a lot of hopeless contracts."  Danny Kleinman: "Just enough extra to have hope for game.  In-and-Out valuation and all that jazz."  Taking a simplistic view, BluBayou "Binary choice!  -- Follow the LAW, and reraise or don't do so and let 2 !S ride and likely buy it.  Right now, count me IN ..."  While JCreech responded: "I don't know where Jock gets off thinking there are only two options, I can see two cue-bids available for the aggressive, in addition to the two he identified.  Would I choose one of the cue-bids?  Probably not.  Are they unreasonable?  No.  You only need nine HCPs from partner to have a reasonable shot at the heart game (less with the unlikely singleton or void in diamonds).  Nonetheless, I find solice in the LAW.  Pass is too weak and the cue-bid too strong, while 3 !H is just right."

Pass   60   BWP 7%   BWS 7%  IAC No solvers
Those passing have given up on game entirely, but not necessarily competing.  Arguing for the wait-and-see approach, Augie Boehm says "The heart tricks seem too slow for notrump.  I'll listen before deciding about competing to three hearts; our nine-card heart fit lacks ruffing potential."  Carl Hudecek writes "If two spades comes around, I'll bid three hearts; but game looks hopeless, and freely bidding three hearts would be forward going."  However, Carl's view of 3 !H seems old fashioned.

2 NT   70   BWP 10%   BWS 1% IAC No solvers
Showing their black-suit stoppers and offering an alternative strain are the two notrump bidders.  Does it hurt to put partner on notice that a double of 3 !S may be the best place to play this hand?  Phil Clayton feels the "Game is too likely merely to reraise."  Hemant Lall points out that "Partner can have useful cards in all four suits; two notrump puts that message across."  While Eric Kokish feels that "It will be good to be able to double three spades with partner involved.  A redouble would be too much, pass or three hearts too little."

3    80   BWP 21%   BWS 12% IAC No solvers
Some viewed 3 !D as the best game-try alternative.  Phillip Alder thinks the bid: "On the aggressive side, but we are vulnerable at imps."  Allan Graves: "Usually, partner will not be strong enough to bid more than three hearts.  If the opponents bid on, a diamond lead from the king would be good."  David Berkowitz says to " Announce that we own the deal before things get out of hand.  If we sell to three spades, so be it."  Steve Beatty feels he "Can't redouble with an extra heart and secondary honors in long suits.  Vulnerable at imps, partnerships usually invite aggressively and accept conservatively so maybe we won't get too high."  The moderator, Bart Bramley, points out that "The trouble with three diamonds is that it is misdescriptive, implying a two-suiter, or at least a suit-oriented hand.  Partner, with a top card in each red suit, will often drive to game when there is no play."  I'm not so sure about all of Bart's analysis, but the hand is versatile - aces and heart length for a suit contract, as well as QJx of diamonds, AJ of spades and values in all suits suitable for notrump.

Redouble   90   BWP 21%   BWS 10% IAC No solvers
For me, the problem with 3 !D was that it put the focus on only diamonds, when I would also like to know something of trump quality; it was too one-dimensional.  An alternative is redouble, and if I were inclined to make a game try, I think redouble is the one I would make.  Robert Wolff describes it as "Informing partner that I have an excellent overcall, just under the values for bidding game."  Similarly, Mike Passell says "To involve partner.  If he starts doubling, I will be happy."  Sami Kehela: "Strong hand; general values."  Jeff Alexander: "To convey that this may be our deal (against today's light openings and responses).  We might have game opposite a couple of kings and a queen."  Joe Grue sums it up nicely: "To make it possible to find game; three diamonds is not what the hand is about. Three notrump is far more likely than four hearts to be our game, and I will be happy if we buy the contract in three hearts."




Problem B  3 !H  (VeredK, CCR3, Blubayou, YleeXotee, BabsG, JCreech, Masse24)

Imps  East-West vulnerable
You, South, hold:

♠ J 10 9 7 2    9 6 3 2    10 7 3 2   ♣ —

SOUTH   WEST   NORTH   EAST
  ——      ——       1          1 ♠
   ?         
What call do you make?

You have length in both partner's and RHO's suits, the opponents are vulnerable while you are not, and you have 1 HCP and a void.  Does this give you the liberty to mess with what appears to be the opponent's auction?

Pass   70   BWP 14%   BWS 15% IAC No solvers
There were naysayers.  Danny Kleinman: "Ain't go nothin' but shape, and for all I know partner may have lots of stuff in clubs.  No reason to try to obstruct opponents who may be headed for spades."  Jeff Rubens: "Current biggest worry is partner; I don't want North to think that I have or might have high-card values."  Allan Graves: "I don't want to encourage partner to bid except voluntarily.  North should allow for this hand if short in spades."  This call describes your HCPs, but little else; there is a lot of playing strength in that one measly point.

2    60   BWP 7%   BWS 8% IAC No solvers
Chiming in timidly.  Robert Wolff says "If I do not support now, I'm likely to regret it later."  Sami Kehela is "Joining in, against my better nature."  What I don't like about this bid is that partner will expect values, not shape, which can turn into wrong expectations later.

3    100   BWP 55%   BWS 60%  IAC 100%
Another IAC unanimous vote, coupled this time with majorities from both the Bridge World Panel and solvers.  BluBayou writes: "A favorite quote i heard long ago goes 'If your weak jump raises don't terrify you a bit, you're not doing them right.'  If you combine the votes for 'pass', 2 !H  and 4 !H  together, the panel should still be at 21-6  or something in favor of the jump-raise ..."  Phil Clayton "Gives our opponents just enough rope without hanging partner.  Steve Beaty think it is "Right on playing strength and forces East-West to begin looking for a minor at the four-level."  Zia: "Should be enough.  Should be enough.  Four would be a bit over the top, and there is no reason to thing that the opponents' clubs are not breaking badly."  Joe Grue: "I'm content trying to stop the opponents from reaching three notrump easily."  Mike Passell says: "Perfect hand.  Makes it difficult to find a fit, which is a good idea."  Kit Woolsey describes the bid as a "Classic preempt to the level I think we should compete.  If partner bids game, I might or might not have the right cards, but there is no way to find out.  JCreech: "The LAW guides me ... Let's get to our proper level as quickly as possible.  This may result in the opponents continuing to imprudently bidding spades, but it will also make it more difficult for the opponents to find an alternative strain."  Kevin Rosenberg: "Too attractive to resist."  Phillip Alder: "No doubt there will be four-heart bidders influenced by the void."  Masse24: "I was all over the place on this one. Considered 2 !H and 4 !H too. But 4 !H was too hot. And 2 !H was too cold. 3 !H was juuuuust right."

4    90   BWP 24%   BWS 17% IAC No solvers
Going for the gusto, some bid game directly.  Joanna Stansby is "Counting my void plus the vulnerability as a fifth trump.  The opponents will have problems finding their best spot."  David Berkowitz: "Do not know who can make what, but I won't wait to find out.  Maybe I can coax an injudicious four spades out of the opponents, or maybe I can keep them out of clubs.  It won't always go double all pass."  Eric Kokish says "One either believes a jump-raise is acceptable or worries about doing too much if the opponents complete."  Sartag Hans: "Hands with voids and a fit play exceptionally well.  Nonvulnerability increase our downside protection.  The opponents' vulnerability provides an extra edge in the hope they misjudge."  Hemant Lall argues that the bid is "Better than three, because it gives the opponents less room to explore.  On a good day, they will double four hearts, and partner may make it with as little as: ♠ x    AKxxxx    Axx   ♣ xxx, for a double-game swing.  Also, we may beat four spades when five clubs is cold."  Pratap Rajadhyaksha: "The book bid is probably three hearts, but that would allow West to double, perhaps enabling the opponents to get together in clubs.  I am reasonably confident that partner can take at least seven tricks and prefer to force the opponents to make the last guess when possible."  Roy Welland: "Overbidding as usual."






Problem C  4 !D  (BluBayou, CCR3, Masse24, BabsG)

Imps  Neither side vulnerable
You, South, hold:

♠ K 6 5 3 2    7 3 2    K J 10 7 5   ♣ —

SOUTH   WEST   NORTH   EAST
  Pass      1 ♣        2 ♠        3 ♣
   ?         
What call do you make?

Another big fit, but a better hand.  Again, there are multiple ways to describe the hand, but much depends on how optimistic you are. And BTW, the opponents have already established a fit.
 
3 ♠   50   BWP 7%   BWS 4% IAC No solvers
A simple raise doesn't strike me as doing much.  It doesn't describe the big fit, it doesn't explore whether there is a double fit, and it doesn't obstruct the opponents much.  As a top choice, it feels more like a cow flop.  Jeff Rubens: "I don't see how giving partner information rates to help:  He can't be short in hearts and is not likely to be void of clubs, so he won't turn up with a boatload of diamonds."  Working toward life balance, Roy Welland says this time:  "Maybe underbidding could work sometimes."

4 ♠   80   BWP 24%   BWS 55%  IAC 43%
4 !S wold be the classic preemptive strategy.  You bid to your side's maximum level immediately and leave the opponents the last guess.  Danny Kleinman writes "I have no idea who can make what.  The opponents might have no idea either.  Let them guess at the five-level, and let them guess now."  Phillip Alder: "I usually like to make a fit-showing jump in this position, but that would give extra wiggle room to the opponents."  Robert Wolff: "Yes, I'm underplaying the offensive potential but, at this moment, I need to show support and await further developments."  Jeff Alexander asks "Where are the hearts?  I'll defend against five clubs, since five spades may be too expensive."  Hemant Lall: "The alternative is four diamonds, but giving descriptive information will help the opponents more than partner."  JCreech: "I typically like to blast to the level I want to be at immediately.  I may come to regret not bidding to the implied level of the LAW, but the 5-level is frequently daunting.  I will gamble that game will suffice."  JoAnna Stansby says "Partner's preempt can be a poker bid opposite a passed hand.  If I were unpassed, I would bid five spades to take away a key-card ask."  Augie Boehm: "I may have a guess over five clubs, but sometimes four spades will buy the contract."  YleeXotee is "wondering a bit about system, and Todd makes an argument for the fit jump. but over a weak overcall? I like 4S as the simple answer, but what will I do over 5c??"

3    70   BWP 21%   BWS 11% IAC No solvers
Partner only overcalled, but sometimes overcalls can be quite good.  Bidding diamonds should show spade support, but how high should you be bidding the diamonds, if you do.  Carl Hudecek is "Preparing a defense if the opponents by the contract.  I will keep raising spades to the four-level, then leave the rest to partner."  Allan Graves: "I would like diamonds led when the smoke clears."  Don Stack: "Do not want to bid four spades and push the opponents into five clubs.  If the bidding  ends at three diamonds, we will have stolen the deal."  Sami Kehela feels the bid "Necessary, although the possibility exists that I may not make it."

4    100   BWP 48%   BWS 18%  IAC 57%
As Masse24 pointed out "'Over a bid by responder, a jump, below-game, new-suit advance is a fit-jump.' Should aid partner if a 5-level decision must be made."  Similarly, Kevin Rosenberg "This might help our partnership judge whether to bid on over five or six clubs.  I plan to bid five spades if partner passes a five-level decision to me.  Bid more with voids generally; here, it's especially important to bid four diamonds so that partner can judge to bid six spades later."  Zia: "We may need to make a solo judgment later, breaking discipline."  Sartaj Hans is "Hoping to encourage partner to bid when we have a double fit."  Steve Beatty says "I hope that partner guesses my intentions correctly.  I want to bid five spades, but I am willing to give up pressure to suggest the lead if we are outbid.  Four diamonds might push us to a good slam on some days."  Billy Eisenberg describes the bid: "Lead directing, showing spades and diamonds."  Pratap Rajadhyaksha: "Directs the lead without committing to the five-level.  Pard can be relatively wide-ranging opposite a passed hand and will be able to make an intelligent decision."  Mark Feldman: "Opposite a passed hand, partner's possible holdings are numerous, and a fit-showing jump is not primarily lead-directing."  Ross Grabel thinks it "May help in getting the best lead or in guaging how high to compete."  Kit Woolsey: "Slam isn't in the picture.  If the opponents bid over four spades, I can hope that partner will know what to do."  Phil Clayton: "Partner probably has at least three hearts, so our high-level prospects are poor, and I do not expect to compete to the five-level.  However, a diamond lead might be the key to beating five clubs ..."  Joe Grue: "Partner can have a decent hand (opening strength is possible).  I want to stress that I have a ton of shape and big fit, so North can be in charge of competing.  I also want a diamond lead."  BluBayou "If we were not a passed hand, any number of spades from 3 to 6 --  plus 3 or 4 Diamonds would be in the running, but it would be presumptuous to imagine that the opps have a club or heart slam when partner jumps in 3rd seat.  Let's give what I hope is taken as a fit-jump and be glad we don't have a follow-up about what to bid on round 3."


This ends Part 1 of the May MSC summary.  I will return as time permits.  I hope you find something useful here, and will take some time to participate in the June problem set (now open on a different thread).
« Last Edit: April 25, 2023, 02:10:55 AM by jcreech »
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jcreech

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Re: 2023 MAY MSC
« Reply #20 on: April 19, 2023, 11:39:05 PM »
May MSC SUMMARY (Part 2)– Bart Bramley, Director



Problem D  Pass  (YleeXotee, BabsG, JCreech, Masse24, VeredK, CCR3)

Imps  Both sides vulnerable
You, South, hold:

♠ K 10 2    3    A K 10 9 7 4   ♣ K 6 2

SOUTH   WEST   NORTH   EAST
  1        1 ♠       Double   Pass
  2        Pass       2        Pass
   ?         
What call do you make?

Partner's bidding on this hand indicates length in hearts and less than 9 HCPs.  So what do you do?  You have a good hand with stoppers in the unbids, so do you try to improve the contract, do you yield to the rules of misfit hands and pass, or, with a very nice six-bagger, insist on playing in diamonds?

Pass   100   BWP 66% BWS 53%  IAC 88%
The majority stance across the board is to pass. Pratap Rajadhyaksha asks "What's the problem?  Pard has shown 6-9 HCP with six-plus hearts.  With aces and kings, I put down the dummy."  David Berkowitz says "Even thinking would be an overbid; stay out of trouble if possible."  Allan Graves thinks "Partner should not have a good hand for three notrump."  Zia: "Sounds like three=six in the majors.  It may be prudent to exit stage left."  JCreech:  "Partner's bidding typically shows a weak hand with long hearts and no fit for my diamonds.  Time to quit trying for better."  Danny Kleinman reminds us that "The second-best place to play a misfit is usually in the long suit of the weaker partner."  The moderator, Bart Bramley, continues Danny's thought:  "...  the first-best place is on defense, but that ship has sailed."  JoAnna Stansby: "When each hand has a six-card suit, the suit headed by ace-king should come down in dummy."  Joe Grue points out "Partner is severely limited by failure to bid two hearts earlier."  Augie Boehm "North has described six weak hearts and limited values.  One-suit negative doubles are unpopular, but partner seems to have managed one."  YleeXotee:  "I went around in circles on this one. but finally as I had noticed in an aside, why wouldn't p bid 2h to start if they wanted to force. The error in my thinking was that 2h was a "new" suit. technically, its a rebid of the 4 hearts already shown."  Masse24 provides the final word:  "The law of Holes applies here. 'If you find yourself in a hole, stop digging.'"

2 NT   70   BWP 14%   BWS 29%  IAC 1 solver
Some show their side-suit stoppers.  Phil Clayton argues "Partner didn't bid three hearts initially so doesn't have seven.  If partner has a weak 3=1=6=3, he should have passed two diamonds. ♠ xx    AQxxxx    Qxx   ♣ xx is possible, and I am not giving up on three notrump, even though I am probably lookin for lightening in a bottle."  Eric Kokish: "Could get us to three clubs when we belong there, but in any event caters to everything except two hearts."  Jeff Rubens says "Having failed to bid one notrump, I am indicating six diamonds and fewer than four clubs, most likely 3=1=6=3.  I am underbidding the diamonds by the ten-nine, but there isn't room to do everything."  Kit Woolsey: "Partner should not have only long hearts.  Two notrump give a very good description."  Phil's vision holds the most promise in my mind, but I'm inclined to make the bid when I am looking for magic (against far superior opponents, or clearly down in a match), but should I really count on a diamond fit?.

3 ♣   60   BWP 7%   BWS 2%  IAC No solvers
Some bid the unshown suit.  Carl Hudecek expects "... partner to hold several cards in the minors."  Jeff Alexander thinks "Partner has either clubs or a decent hand."  The moderator has concerns:  "If partner has clubs, that makes one of us.  Raising the level to play in a tenuous three=four fit seems questionable."  Personally, I am worried that if I bid clubs, partner will pass, and I am playing in a 3=3 fit.

3    70   BWP 14%   BWS 13%  IAC No solvers
Some return to diamonds; the suit is better than advertised thus far.  Robert Wolff considers the bid "Dangerous, but percentage; somewhat dependent on partner's tendencies."  Sartag Hans: "With long hearts, many Norths tend to bid two hearts fairly light over one spade.  The chance of game is minuscule.  Playing in diamonds will protect the black kings and should be worth an extra trick at least."  Ross Grabel concludes:  "I'm not sure I see the problem here."




Problem E  1 NT (CCR3, VeredK, Masse24, JCreech, YleeXotee, BluBayou)

Matchpoints  North-South vulnerable
You, South, hold:

♠ 7 5 4 2    9 3 2    K J 2   ♣ Q 6 4

SOUTH   WEST   NORTH   EAST
  ——      Pass       1        Pass
   ?         
What call do you make?

The moderator "... expected a three-way battle among one spade, one notrump, and two hearts; pass was not on my radar."

1 NT   100   BWP 69%   BWS 44%  IAC 86%
The runaway choice is what I would consider the standard response; three-card support and the lower end of a raise of partner's suit.  Sami Kehela: "Clear: (i) hearts too flimsy to raise, particularly in a weak hand; (ii) 4-3-3-3 distribution."  Don Stack: "Do not want partner to bid over a raise to two hearts.  I will bid two hearts over two of a minor.  If North tries three hearts, pass is probably correct."  Phillip Alder: "Throwing up a small smokescreen seems like a good idea."  Jeff Alexander: "Standard nowadays."  Ross Grabel: "The first order of business is to put the brakes on while allowing for partner to hold a near game-force."  Mike Passell: "Too weak for two hearts, one spade would be silly."  JoAnna Stansby: "Bidding two hearts will often push us too high."  David Berkowitz: "Not enough for a modern two hearts, and I'm certainly not bidding the robust spade suit."  Similarly, JCreech says "Without a ruffing value, I don't see a good reason to raise the hearts directly.  With crappy spades, I will not bid 1 !S; I don't want to encourage partner to re-evaluate any spade holding."  Kit Woolsey: "A raise might encourage partner to drive too high.  If North passes one notrump, that might be as good a spot as two hearts."  Joe Grue: "Too weak to raise with three low; maybe I'd raise with king-jack-third."  Phil Clayton: "I cannot bring myself to raise on this dreck.  If partner passes, I will be happy to play for seven tricks instead of eight."  Augie Boehm: "Too strong to pass, too weak to raise.  If our auction dies at two hearts, the opponents may be reluctant to balance, since they will likely assume that we lack a true heart fit."  BluBayuou describes this differently:  "TEN  LTC "LOOSERS"? Surely it is time to trot out the "cheating raise"---via semiforcing 1NT + plus heart preference.  Obviously BWS doesn't use constructive raises or this would be a quizz with exactly ONE answer"  However, Masse24 clarifies the nature of direct raises:  "Follows system (Constructive raises). The four-card spade suit is a red herring. The thing that concerns me is that two or three 1 !S responses will dilute the 1NT responses. I’m also concerned that a handful of panelists will eschew the system in favor of the preemptive value of 2 !H."

2    60   BWP 7%   BWS 41%  IAC 1 solver
Two Panelists choose to support with support.  Robert Wolff says "Again very close vs. pass; I choose aggressive."  While Arthur Robinson reminisces:  "I lasted 10 years with Bob Jordan by raising him." 

Pass   80   BWP 24%   BWS 3%  IAC No solvers
Although it is hard to envision in this world of light openings and aggressive action that experts would think to pass 6 HCPs and three-card support, it is not crazy.  Old-time valuations, would have subtracted a point based on the 4=3=3=3 shape and the KnR for this hand is even less (4.3).  IAC did not vote this way, so let's see the arguments posed.  Allan Graves points out that "The auction isn't over and rates to be below two hearts on the next round."  Jeff Rubens: "Out of fashion, but in the modern game there is too much focus on high-card points to the exclusion of quality of support, nature of honors, and shape."  Mark Feldman feels that "At this vulnerability, there is no reason to bid."  Billy Eisenberg: "Maybe it's close."  Carl Hudecek thinks there is "Not enough stuff to raise."  Danny Kleinman says the "Flat shape and weak three-card support put this hand below the normal threshold for a raise; if the queen were in hearts, I would eke out one."  Hemant Lall choice is conditional:  "Matchpoints, I pass.  As both opponents have passed, if I bid partner may drive to a game likely to fail."


1 ♠   30   BWP No Panelists   BWS 13%  IAC No solvers
What about the spade suit?  You hold four, and you want to avoid the direct heart raise, that sounds like a reason to bid the spades.  No one on the Panel bit, though some discussed the option while choosing to bid 1 NT.  Kevin Rosenberg says "Generally, I respond one notrump rather than one spade with three hearts in a hand too weak to raise (especially with four weak spades).  Eric Kokish: "North might raise one spade with three, so I'll steer toward two hearts modestly."  Steve Beatty: "Even if partner has four spades, one spade may not work out with my poor spade holding and secondary honors in partner's short suits."  Pratap Rajadhyaksha: "I don't want to bid one spade lest pard raise with three.  Another ad for Flannery, Bart?"  CAUTIONnone of the above opinions were in support of 1 !S as a response, the discussion was entirely why 1 !S was not a good choice.




Problem F  2 !H (BabsG)

Matchpoints  East-West vulnerable
You, South, hold:

♠ K J 5    K 8 6    A K 5 3 2   ♣ 9 8

SOUTH   WEST   NORTH   EAST
  ——      ——       Pass      Pass
  1        Pass       1        Pass
   ?         
What call do you make?

You opened 1 !D, [partner is a passed hand and responded 1 !H,  so what is the best description of your hand?  You are semi-balanced, so 1 NT is a possibility; your have three-card support and a ruffing value, so 2 !H is also a possibility; and you also have a 14 count that could be promising, or maybe not, so perhaps passing partner might be the way to go.

2    100   BWP 72%   BWS 38%  IAC 1 solver
The Panel was heavily invested in raising with only three, though there was also a substantial minority of BW solvers that joined in as well.  Kit Woolsey describes the hand as "A bit too strong to pass and suit-oriented enough to prefer two hearts to one notrump."  Phil Clayton considers the bid "Fairly automatic with a weak doubleton club and values that mostly aren't positional.  I agree with one diamond at matchpoints, although I would have opened one notrump at imps."  Hemant Lall: "The best shot to find the right strain and level, especially important in matchpoints."  Don Stack:  "This is the only type of balanced hand that should offer a three-card raise:  A worthless doubleton and three trumps headed by an honor.  This will not play terribly even opposite four low cards - or will it?"  Ross Grabel "Three strong trumps and shortness in a side suit, although I wish the clubs and spades were reversed."  Jeff Rubens: "Habits of a lifetime."  Pratap Rajadhyaksha "Either one notrump or two hearts could be right for a partscore, but two hearts will encourage partner to look for game and shows a sound opening bid (as I could have passed one heart).  As many would have upgraded to a strong notrump, a one-notrump rebid seems a bit feeble."  I must admit that I was not thinking about how a NT rebid might sound to a passed-hand partner in the face of third-seat upgrades to a strong NT opener, despite the fact that I would have opened 1NT at the table.  Billy Eisenberg: "More encouraging and forward-going than one notrump."  Sartaj Hans thinks "We might easily make a game in hearts, so I must encourage partner to act aggressively with five hearts."  Eric Kokish views it as "A style tester.  The one-notrump bidders are following their systemic preference."  As Sami Kehela begs the BW staff: "Please provide us with more such problems instead of torturing us.Zia, though, provides the final zinger: "If you don't know by now that this the winning bid, it's probably too late."

1 NT   70   BWP 17%   BWS 57%  IAC 86%
Majorities of the IAC and the BW solver votes went with 1 NT.  It certainly shows the shape and describes the hand, if partner were not a passed hand.  Mike Passell says "I can't think of an alternative."  David Berkowitz follows his original plan: "I have a weak notrump, so I show it.  I would have opened one notrump had partner not been a passed hand."  Augie Boehm: "Either pass or two hearts would be too committal.  Opposite a sound opener, game is still a lively option."  BluBayou sounds like he agrees:  "Maybe MAYBE I could raise one SPADE to two, but  not one heart."  Kevin Rosenberg, clearly does not like the original choice, but follows his style: "I would have opened one notrump.  I don't raise on a balanced hand with three-card support."  JCreech:  "I am torn between 1 NT, raise partner and pass.  I am minimum opposite a passed hand, but I also have a maximum, full-values for my minimum.  I do not want to encourage the opponents to enter the fray with the pass, and I don't want to encourage partner too much with a raise (particularly if he only has four), so I split the difference with the very descriptive 1 NT."

Pass   60   BWP 10%   BWS 3%  IAC No solvers
Some think it is right to bail with a balanced minimum opposite a passed hand.  Carl Hudecek "If partner were not a passed hand, I would raise to two; here, I want to avoid one notrump with good heart support and two low clubs."  JoAnna Stansby is "Planning to bid two hearts if the opponents balance." 


I don't often comment on the problem; you take the problem as it is presented and make your decision.  But then I think it is right to open this hand 1 NT in third seat (and much of the time in any seat).  Although I did not calculate the KnR until this write-up, it is 14.95; how much better do you want the hand to be for an upgrade?  Joe Grue makes a good point:  "I would not have opened one diamond with this nice 14-HCP hand unless my range were 16-18 HCP or 12-14 HCP."  Opening 1 NT solves, with this hand, so many problems off the top, that I cannot imagine having this problem at the table.  Masse24 echos the thought:  "Why didn’t I open 1NT?"



This concludes Part 2.  One more to go, and I will get to it when I have time.  Hope you are finding the discussion useful, and please do not avoid participating in next month's problems.  We love to see the regulars, the return of old friends (KenBerg, we see you lurking), and the addition of new ones.  Please join in the fun.
« Last Edit: April 27, 2023, 10:47:04 AM by jcreech »
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jcreech

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Re: 2023 MAY MSC
« Reply #21 on: April 21, 2023, 01:56:00 PM »
May MSC SUMMARY (Part 3)– Bart Bramley, Director


Problem G  (c4) 1 ♣; then, after, (Pass) - 1 - (Pass) - ?, 2 (JCreech, BabsG, YleeXotee, Masse24, BluBayou, CCR3, VeredK)

Imps  Both sides vulnerable
You, South, hold:

♠ K 4 3    3    A Q 10 4   ♣ A K 6 4 3

SOUTH   WEST   NORTH   EAST
   ?         
What is your plan?

(a) 1 NT
(b) 1
(c) 1 ♣; then, after (Pass) - 1 - (Pass) - ?
    (c1) 1 ♠
    (c2) 1 NT
    (c3) 2 ♣
    (c4) 2
    (c5) 2 NT

The question raised by the moderator, Bart Bramley, was "Is this another 'style tester'?  The question before the panel was: 'Is this enough to reverse?'"

c4 (1 ♣; then, after, (Pass) - 1 - (Pass) - ?, 2 )   100   BWP 52%   BWS 59%  IAC 100%
The answer emerging from both the Panel and the solvers is "yes."  All three groups provided a majority for the reverse into diamonds, but other than IAC, the majority was joined by substantial minority positions.  BluBayou declares:  "The die has been cast! If we aren't reversing after partner's normal response, we shouldn't have opened one club."  But Jock, you cast the die for clubs; you had other openings available.  Mark Feldman admits to the sequence: "Having opened one club, I would be quite content to reverse."  Ross Grabel is "Not uneasy about this.  The hand has the values to open one club vs. one diamond."  Robert Wolff says to "Just bid naturally and recognize a minimum; natural has advantages."  Steve Beatty: "With a control-rich, five-loser 16-count and two reasonable suits, this is a model reverse."  Kit Woolsey: "With all these prime values, I'm willing to risk a reverse.  Sometimes the auction doesn't go as shown, and then it will have been best that I opened in my longest suit."  JCreech: "I see no reason to distort my shape.  I wish I had some better spot-cards, but this hand has primes, so I am willing to reverse on this 16."  Sartag Hans: "After half a lifetime of waiting for 'pure' six-four-type hands for reverses, I've joined the herd of 'show the strength and the basic shape with a five-four reverse.'"  JoAnna Stansby: "Short only a jack for an otherwise-perfect description, and the good controls everywhere make up for it."  Pratap Rajadhyaksha considers it "A bit light for a reverse, but I like the other alternatives less."  Kevin Rosenberg agrees "This is a bit light to reverse, but it is least of all evils."  Jeff Alexander: "Minimum.  Without the spade king, I'd open one diamond."  Joe Grue: "Hits the bottom of the reverse range."  Zia, though, says "This is a good 16-count.  I'm an optimist and will make a goodish approach.  The diamond ten is not chopped liver."  I like the point Masse24 makes: "The ugly reverse. Also strongly considered the 'if I can only get past this round' 1 !S. But the point shy reverse is the lesser lie. It also has the advantage of being more likely to get us to the right strain."

b (1 )   90   BWP 34%   BWS 23%  IAC No solvers
The most substantial alternative vote from the Panel, was to not reverse by distorting the shape of the hand; bid the four-card diamond suit first, so the five-card club suit could be shown without reversing.  Among the solvers, there were no IAC votes, but nearly a quarter of the BW solvers liked this approach.  Danny Kleinman considers the hand "Just a hair below the threshold for one club then two diamonds.  Add two black tens and I would say 'just a hair above.'"  David Berkowitz claims the gerontological excuse: "Too old to change now.  To open one club and not anticipate a one-heart response would be very shortsighted."  Mike Passell: "No auction looks promising after opening one club.  After one diamond - one heart - two clubs - two diamonds, I will upgrade to two notrump."  Don Stack asks "Will we miss game after a two club rebid?  Probably not.  As long as the shorter diamonds make a decent four-card suit, this usually works well."  Allan Graves: "I almost never prepare an auction in the minors, but when I have enough strength to bid around with a strong two-of-a-major raise and too little for a pushy reverse and the diamonds are decent, the I say okay."  Eric Kokish says "... I'd rather bid the long suits without admitting to reversing values."  Billy Eisenberg regards this approach "The least evil."  Augie Boehm writes:  "Without the wire, I might well open one club and hope for competition or a one-spade response that would elevate the hand into reverse territory."  Augie regards this problem as telegraphing what will happen, I think he is taking the wrong approach to the problem.  To me, the problem is anticipating the worst-case scenario, and trying to cater to the best solution.  That is Carl Hudecek's approach: "I prefer to solve a rebid problem early, so not one club.  Don't ask me what I would do if partner responds one spade."

c3 (1 ♣; then, after, (Pass) - 1 - (Pass) - ?, 2 ♣)   60   BWP 7%   BWS 6%  IAC No solvers
The third choice was to avoid the reverse by bidding and rebidding the clubs; a common approach understood to show an unbalanced hand that may not have a sixth club.  Hemant Lall thinks "With 16 HCP, I want partner to keep the bidding open over two clubs with 9-10 HCP.  I suspect he will have more hands with which to give a courtesy raise to three clubs if I open and rebid clubs than if I open one diamond and rebid two clubs.  Over three clubs, I will bid three notrump."  Jeff Rubens says "The advantage of (c) is that the single-most-likely scenario will often not occur.  (c3) is a guess with the excuse of demotion for the misfit and the absent sixth club."  The moderator points out that "We would bid the same way with 11 HCP and six clubs, right?  Sure partner may give those panelists another chance, but they're pretty much on their own, because North will never figure out what they hold.  And how will they reach diamonds opposite four or five of them?  Consider this North hand:  ♠ QJx    Axxx    Jxxxx   ♣ x.  Good luck!  They land in two clubs when six diamonds is on a finesse and normal splits."

c1 (1 ♣; then, after, (Pass) - 1 - (Pass) - ?, 1 ♠)   50   BWP 1 Panelist   BWS 6%  IAC No solvers
The fourth choice was too avoid the reverse by clearly distorting the shape; choosing to bid the spade fragment rather than upgrading the hand to a reverse, or suggesting a balanced hand by rebidding 1NT.  Phil Clayton is reluctant: "I don't love it, but I dislike the other options more.  If partner raises, I will have an easy two notrump.  If partner bids one notrump or two clubs, two diamonds will complete the picture."  The moderator commented "Unnecessarily bidding a three-card spade suit is the 'suicide bombing' option.  Two diamonds may complete a picture, but it's not a pretty one."

a (1 NT)   50   BWP 1 Panelist   BWS 1%  IAC No solvers
The fifth choice is a repudiation of the ACBL restriction of the opening of 1 NT with a small singleton.
Phillip Alder "I do not like this with a low singleton, but I strongly dislike opening one diamond, and the rebid problem after partner's one heart response is even worse."



Problem H  !D A  (None)

Matchpoints  Both sides vulnerable
You, South, hold:

♠ 9 8 3 2    A 5 4    A Q 5   ♣ Q 5 3

SOUTH   WEST   NORTH   EAST
  ——      ——       Pass      Pass
  1 ♣     Double     Pass      1 ♠
  Pass      2         Pass      3 NT
  Pass      Pass      Pass
What is your opening lead?

You opened and partner was not helpful as the opponents ran roughshod over you to bid 3 NT.  LHO doubled and bid hearts.  RHO bid 1 !S when forced to respond, but jumped to 3 NT at his next opportunity.

In general, I would place RHO with spade length and club values, and LHO with extra strength and hearts.  Beyond that, the placing of values and length are in the minds of the opening leaders.

A   100   BWP 55%   BWS 26%  IAC No solvers
Hemant Lall feels "The best shot to beat the contract and not to give up a trick.  East is probably 4=2=3=4 or 4=2=2=5, and the diamond king rates to be in the dummy - maybe doubleton when partner has jack-fifth or -sixth.  Or, if king-third is in dummy, we may be able to set up partner's diamond and hope that he gets in with a heart."  Kit Woolsey believes "Our future might be in diamonds; but, since declarer appears to have at most four spades and three hearts, his future might be in diamonds.  By leading the ace, I can see the dummy and partner's signal, an those should tell me how to continue."  Steve Beatty goes for the last suit standing: "The other three suits look worse."  David Berkowitz: "LHO has hearts and a good hand.  RHO has the blacks.  Maybe that leaves partner with some diamonds.  Leading the ace, I can see what aI should have led at trick one."  Pratap Rajadhyaksha: "Must attack before the heart ace is dislodged. ... I lead the ace rather than the queen, because we may spear something at trick one, and it allows me to look at dummy.  A beat seems unlikely on the auction, but we may be able to stop some overtricks."  Carl Hudecek reminds us that "Partner couldn't bid over one club doubled, so he is probably broke.  I'm not optimistic about beating three notrump, so I take a look."  Zia finds it "A narrow choice between ace and queen.  I've seen bare kings and other friendly layouts."  Ross Grabel: "Preferable to the queen as I can see dummy and also get partner's reaction."  JoAnna Stansby may have the best reason identified: "Partner would have raised clubs in some fashion with five.  At least I'll get to see dummy and know what to do next." 

Q   90   BWP 34%   BWS 20%  IAC 57%
JCreech: "I hate to say this, but my strongest inclination right now is to lead the !D Q, like last month, hoping to hit Jxxxx with partner."  Masse24 is also "Hoping for length and a Jack from partner."  Kevin Rosenberg thinks "The queen might be more effective than the ace (maybe declarer will have king-ten-low and fail to duck when partner has jack-fifth).  It might have more deceptive value.  I'll be sorry if dummy has stiff king."  Phillip Alder: "If we can defeat the contract, this looks like the suit to lead.  If partner lacks the king, surely it will be in the West hand.  No other lead has any appeal."  Billy Eisenberg "At least as good as anything else and may produce a home run."  Allan Graves: "With no good lead, let's attack and force a duck with king-third to hold declarer to four."  Don Stack: "It appears that leading any other suit would produce tricks for the opponents."  While Mike Passell may have the best reason: "Looks like a time to be desparate."

♠ 2   60   BWP 7%   BWS 14%  1 solver
Phil Clayton feels "Any non-spade could easily blow a trick and would be too committal. ... North will be weak, so I am not too concerned about camouflaging my spade holding."  Augie Boehm: "It wouldn't be a great surprise to find partner with four spades, or at least three, since the opponents didn't bother to explore a spade fit."

4   50   BWP 1 Panelist   BWS 2%  IAC No solvers
Robert Wolff echos the uncertainty of his choice: "In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king; this opening lead belongs in that category."

♠ 9, 8   10   BWP No Panelists   BWS 30%  IAC 29%
About 30% of the solvers made this selection, but no Panelists.  Phil Clayton discussed why he did not choose a high spade to show his disinterest: "I cannot afford to lead the nine or eight and crash partner's two honors doubleton (or even honor-seven-doubleton)."

I feel Sami Kehela has the right idea: "Just an uneducated guess." regardless of what lead was chosen this month.


Meanwhile, this concludes this month's MSC summary.  I hope you found something interesting, or at least entertaining in this summary.  Please join next month's contest (and when you do, tell us why you chose what you chose - you may find yourself quoted in the next summary).
« Last Edit: April 25, 2023, 02:23:30 AM by jcreech »
A stairway to nowhere is better than no stairway at all.  -Kehlog Albran

Masse24

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Re: 2023 MAY MSC
« Reply #22 on: April 22, 2023, 01:37:47 AM »
Thanks, Jim!
“Kindness is the only service that will stand the storm of life and not wash out. It will wear well and will be remembered long after the prism of politeness or the complexion of courtesy has faded away.” Abraham Lincoln

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Re: 2023 MAY MSC
« Reply #23 on: April 26, 2023, 01:45:12 AM »
On problem F, where we were asked to raise 1 heart or not raise it  with  KJx, Kxx, AKxxx,  98, ZIA's comment"If you don't know by now that this the winning bid, it's probably too late." infuriated me. Then I noticed  the 72% agreement from the panel which changed my mood to merely  'depressed'.  I have played about 400,000 bridge hands since 1963,  and raising hearts with this hand is not even on my  "let's have a little fun" list,  so I guess it's well and truly  too late for me :o
« Last Edit: April 26, 2023, 01:47:23 AM by blubayou »
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Masse24

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Re: 2023 MAY MSC
« Reply #24 on: April 26, 2023, 07:56:29 PM »
On problem F, where we were asked to raise 1 heart or not raise it  with  KJx, Kxx, AKxxx,  98, ZIA's comment"If you don't know by now that this the winning bid, it's probably too late." infuriated me. Then I noticed  the 72% agreement from the panel which changed my mood to merely  'depressed'.  I have played about 400,000 bridge hands since 1963,  and raising hearts with this hand is not even on my  "let's have a little fun" list,  so I guess it's well and truly  too late for me :o

Blu, I too have not fully embraced raising on three. I rarely do it. And although I know Spiral and know 3344, I do not advertise it 'cuz my three card raises are so few and far between. When I do raise with three I generally limit them to when I have a stiff somewhere.

This panel result has me thinking that I need to rethink. Sigh . . .
“Kindness is the only service that will stand the storm of life and not wash out. It will wear well and will be remembered long after the prism of politeness or the complexion of courtesy has faded away.” Abraham Lincoln

jcreech

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Re: 2023 MAY MSC
« Reply #25 on: April 27, 2023, 10:46:17 AM »
On problem F, where we were asked to raise 1 heart or not raise it  with  KJx, Kxx, AKxxx,  98, ZIA's comment"If you don't know by now that this the winning bid, it's probably too late." infuriated me. Then I noticed  the 72% agreement from the panel which changed my mood to merely  'depressed'.  I have played about 400,000 bridge hands since 1963,  and raising hearts with this hand is not even on my  "let's have a little fun" list,  so I guess it's well and truly  too late for me :o

Blu, I too have not fully embraced raising on three. I rarely do it. And although I know Spiral and know 3344, I do not advertise it 'cuz my three card raises are so few and far between. When I do raise with three I generally limit them to when I have a stiff somewhere.

This panel result has me thinking that I need to rethink. Sigh . . .

I found Pratap Rajadhyaksha's comment the most illuminating: "Either one notrump or two hearts could be right for a partscore, but two hearts will encourage partner to look for game and shows a sound opening bid (as I could have passed one heart).  As many would have upgraded to a strong notrump, a one-notrump rebid seems a bit feeble." 

Personally, I would have opened 1 NT with this hand - two suits with tenaces, 14 HCP plus a five-bagger headed by the ace-king speaks volumes to me for an upgrade.  Having chosen to open 1 !D (perforce by MSC), the question is how to respond given that you are already bidding differently than you would like.  Rather than complain or scream misclick, you make the best of the situation.  Under those circumstances, 1NT sounds like an 11-13 with a poor heart fit, while 2 !H sounds like a 13-14 with a good heart fit.  Now the question is, can partner take a joke?  You have also promised four-card support, but have actually raised with less, assuming that the doubleton club with be a decent ruffing value in a possible Moysian fit.

Eric Kokish called this problem "A style tester.  The one-notrump bidders are following their systemic preference."  When I provided my answer, I did not think about the issues that Pratap raised, and just followed my original plan of rebidding 1 NT.  On reconsideration, I see that having made a bad initial choice, there is some need to try to catch up.  I only looked at the problem from my own holding, not how partner might be viewing my holding given my choices of bids.

As I said as commentator "Opening 1 NT solves, with this hand, so many problems off the top, that I cannot imagine having this problem at the table."  And that made all the difference.
« Last Edit: April 27, 2023, 10:59:35 AM by jcreech »
A stairway to nowhere is better than no stairway at all.  -Kehlog Albran