Author Topic: 2022 December MSC  (Read 4938 times)

blubayou

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Re: 2022 December MSC
« Reply #15 on: October 30, 2022, 03:19:26 PM »
SOLVER: Jock McQuade    3 Bag End         Hobbiton OR 97030        U.S.A.Your Solutions for the December
PROBLEM A: 2 Spades       --pard is strong in the reds,  or longish
PROBLEM B: Double          --Michaels is a better first round bid,  since I can not stand to give up NOW :(
PROBLEM C: 3 Spades     --going with the suprizing finding of The 100-deal Simulation!
PROBLEM D: Pass             --what HOKI said , above
PROBLEM E: Pass             --too few values left for pard to have;  2!D overcall may be their" last mistake"
PROBLEM F: 2 Diamonds  --can't expect to reallyenjoy  +50
PROBLEM G: 3 Notrump   -- no comment
PROBLEM H: Spade 5       --  too many comments already,  above ;)   --by "everybody"
Thank you for participating in the Master Solvers Club
« Last Edit: October 30, 2022, 06:33:08 PM by blubayou »
often it is better to beg forgiveness, than ask permission

Masse24

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Re: 2022 December MSC
« Reply #16 on: October 31, 2022, 02:34:46 AM »
Blu, I get your !S 5 lead. I don't think it crazy at all.
“Kindness is the only service that will stand the storm of life and not wash out. It will wear well and will be remembered long after the prism of politeness or the complexion of courtesy has faded away.” Abraham Lincoln

hoki

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Re: 2022 December MSC
« Reply #17 on: October 31, 2022, 07:00:59 AM »
I have tried to construct hands based on the bidding.  Here is what I have come up with:

                    2
                    Q987x
                    Kxxxxx
                    x

AJx                               KQxx
AKJxx                           x
xx                                QJ10
xxx                              KQ9xx

                   98654
                   103
                   A2
                   AJ106

Certainly 3N is off on any lead except a club.  Give declarer the Q !H instead of the J, then 3NT will make on any lead.  Maybe someone can construct a hand where 10 !H defeats the contract when a  !S lead does not.

I stuck this hand into a double dummy solver and the contract makes on any
lead except a spade - but it requires double dummy play to make (declarer
has to assume South is short in both red suits). So sadly I don't see how this
proves anything. Put me into the hating leads camp.

As for Jock's hand, that is a pretty aggressive game-forcing 2D bid on a sickly
looking 12-count (Qx, AQxxx, Qxx, Qxx). I'd rather keep a low profile with that
hand and just stick in a more sedate 2NT bid on the second round (and if I
knew that my partner opened 12-counts on a regular basis I could even seeing
myself taking the low road of rebidding 1NT at that stage).

The only thing that might make me change my choice of a club lead is to switch
it to a little one in case North's singleton is the nine. Give East a 4=2=3=4 shape,
including the nine of hearts, then leading the ten of hearts might be just what the
doctor ordered for declarer to claim the contract.
« Last Edit: October 31, 2022, 07:06:06 AM by hoki »

wackojack

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Re: 2022 December MSC
« Reply #18 on: October 31, 2022, 10:48:15 AM »
SOLUTIONS FOR:
Jack Goody

Guildford
England

PROBLEM A: 3 Diamonds
PROBLEM B: Pass
PROBLEM C: 2 Hearts
PROBLEM D: Pass
PROBLEM E: 3 Clubs
PROBLEM F: 2 Diamonds
PROBLEM G: Double
PROBLEM H: Spade 9

jcreech

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Re: 2022 December MSC
« Reply #19 on: October 31, 2022, 11:01:16 AM »
Blu, I get your !S 5 lead. I don't think it crazy at all.

Let me clarify my comments a bit.  Like Masse24, I don't find the lead crazy.  What I do find about the the !S 5 lead is that it does not follow the BWS agreement of "(ii) Spot-card leads: fourth-highest; second-highest (but highest of equals) from a weak suit" 

Blu's first comment about the lead was:

about leading around to declarer's pretty good spade suit:  I am KEEPING  my 9-8 for later!.  If there is a mighty crash of honors on the first two tricks,  the  9-8  may have grown up into 'something",  and I may be glad to have a pusher later to set up the fourth round.  My motive  is not ENTIRELY  to go passive, you see.

Because Blu does read closely and is thoughtful, I wanted to encourage him to clarify both which small spade, as well as his reasoning behind his choice.  He has clarified by adding

... , so I don't care if I have given partner a wrong message too much  (In fact  I will be pleased as punch  if he even gets in, before I do!)
 
to his original comment.  Although it takes careful reading to know something was added.  In this case "« Last Edit: Today at 12:46:42 AM by blubayou »" indicates that something has changed, but reading my quoting him, that follows, provides the missing context.

And given Blu's expressed reasoning, I am considering changing my lead to a small spade (either fourth-best, per the BWS agreement against NT contracts, or fifth-best, to false-card to be deceptive about my length).  A fifth-best lead might deceive declarer about length, but not partner because the bidding should show exactly four in declarer's hand.  I had not given enough thought about the importance of the 98 as pushers and too much to preserving partnership lead understandings.
« Last Edit: October 31, 2022, 11:02:53 AM by jcreech »
A stairway to nowhere is better than no stairway at all.  -Kehlog Albran

Masse24

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Re: 2022 December MSC
« Reply #20 on: October 31, 2022, 03:16:12 PM »
December guesses:

PROBLEM A: 3 Diamonds
I also considered 2 !D to find out about a possible spade fit as low as possible. But the splinter conveys a lot of information, showing a lot of black cards.

PROBLEM B: 4 Diamonds
Aggressive, but since I did not first double should describe a distributional hand just under that threshold.

PROBLEM C: 2 Hearts
I have a strong hand, so 2 !H seems best. I worry though about this being directed by Kleinman.

PROBLEM D: Pass
Take the plus.

PROBLEM E: 3 Clubs
Bid what I have.

PROBLEM F: 2 Diamonds
Tactical. A double would let west off the hook. This will elicit the presumed 2 !H from west and if it comes round to me I can show my spades.
 
PROBLEM G: 3 Notrump
Very tempting to try 6 !C. But I rate it as a bit less than 50%.

PROBLEM H: Spade 5
Not crazy. I actually like this. ;)
« Last Edit: October 31, 2022, 08:24:59 PM by Masse24 »
“Kindness is the only service that will stand the storm of life and not wash out. It will wear well and will be remembered long after the prism of politeness or the complexion of courtesy has faded away.” Abraham Lincoln

jcreech

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Re: 2022 December MSC
« Reply #21 on: October 31, 2022, 04:14:55 PM »
SOLUTIONS FOR:
James Creech
Fredericksburg VA 22407
U.S.A.

PROBLEM A: 3 Diamonds
PROBLEM B: Pass
PROBLEM C: 2 Hearts
PROBLEM D: Pass  I never really liked bidding 4 !S with four little.  I have a lot of defense for my bidding up to this point, so I will try for the penalty for a plus.
PROBLEM E: 3 Clubs
PROBLEM F: Double
PROBLEM G: 3 Notrump
PROBLEM H: Spade 4  I decided that a low spade was best based on Blu's thinking, but went with the false card to since partner is unlikely to be harmed, and it may give declarer an incorrect inferential count of the hand.
A stairway to nowhere is better than no stairway at all.  -Kehlog Albran

ccr3

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Re: 2022 December MSC
« Reply #22 on: October 31, 2022, 04:30:26 PM »
PROBLEM A: 3 Diamonds
PROBLEM B: Pass
PROBLEM C: 2 Hearts
PROBLEM D: Pass
PROBLEM E: 3 Clubs
PROBLEM F: Double
PROBLEM G: 3 Notrump
PROBLEM H: Spade 5

Masse24

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Re: 2022 December MSC
« Reply #23 on: November 01, 2022, 10:00:40 PM »
December Results

BabsG led the IAC solvers with 680.  Masse24 and Wackojack were tied for second with 670. All three made the honor roll this month.

NAMEBW-SCORERANKMPs
BabsG     680   1   30
Wackojack     670   2   10
Masse24     670   2   10
        
        



Also participating this month were:  JCreech, Blubayou, Hoki, CCR3, and Peuco.

Congratulations to all!
“Kindness is the only service that will stand the storm of life and not wash out. It will wear well and will be remembered long after the prism of politeness or the complexion of courtesy has faded away.” Abraham Lincoln

jcreech

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Re: 2022 December MSC
« Reply #24 on: November 17, 2022, 09:36:33 PM »
December MSC SUMMARY (Part 1) – Danny Kleinman Director

Problem A  3 !D  (BabsG, JCreech, Masse24, WackoJack, CCR3, Peuco)

Matchpoints  Neither side vulnerable
You, South, hold:

♠ K J 9 8 6 3    A    6   ♣ 9 8 4 3 2

SOUTH   WEST   NORTH   EAST
  ——      ——      1 ♣        Pass
  1 ♠       Pass      2 ♣        Pass
   ?*         
*three of a red suit = splinter (not BWS)

What call do you make?

Eleven black cards, stiffs in both red suits, 1st or 2nd round control of three suits, five-card support for a suit partner opened and rebid, but only 8 HCPs; how do you describe all of that?  Quite a challenge.

3 ♠   40   Bridge World Panel (BWP) 1 Panelist   Bridge World solver (BWS) 5%  Intermediate-Advanced Club (IAC) No solvers
Robert Wolff pushes for the spades aggressively:  "Catering to matchpoints, with a club slam a slim possibility.  I will bid five clubs if partner bids three notrump but pass if he raises to four spades."

3 ♣   50   BWP 1 Panelist   BWS 3% IAC No solvers
While Jeff Rubens shows the fit in clubs; the problem is that he risks a pass when game is on, though still leaves a route to the higher paying spades: "Then three spades over three of a red suit or four spades over three notrump; I understand that that last sequence is common on the third moon of Jupiter."

3    30   BWP 1 Panelist   BWS 1% IAC No solvers
Patricia Ann Straat has a plan "To provoke a lead-directing double that might deflect East from a killing diamond lead against six clubs."  She wants to follow with 4 NT as an attempt to elicit exclusion RKC.  However, the moderator, Danny Kleinman, points out that "A direct jump to four hearts would be an exclusion key-card ask, the one to which North's reply would be least likely to get us overboard."  Were the hints incomplete this time?

4    60   BWP 7%   BWP 1% IAC No solvers
A couple Panelists bid 4 !DDavid Berkowitz thinks it is "Blackwood by me.  Off to six clubs opposite three keys."  As does Irina Levitina "Only 8 high-card points, but slam is on the horizon."  The moderator explains the problem with bidding 4 !D, "... in Bridge World Standard (BWS) one level above a splinter is an exclusion key-card-ask, so partner might disregard the ace of diamonds ..."

4 ♣   70   BWP 7%   BWP 5% IAC No solvers
Some Panelists tried jumping in clubs.  Billy Eisenberg suggests that "We can still play in spades, but this gives us a chance to reach a club slam."  While Ron Smith views the auction as the basis for concern:  "The silence of the opponents suggests that partner may have four hearts and only five clubs.  It will be hard to reach spades."  I think that if you are willing to stop short of game, then 4 !C is your action.

2    80   BWP 22%   BWP 10% IAC No solvers
There was moderate support for simply making the cheapest new-suit bid.  As Eric Kokish argues:  "Any club-related auction will make it difficult to find a spade fit, so going slow with a red-suit force caters better to spades, although supporting clubs accurately afterward may be complicated."  Drew Casen says "I intend to force to game in clubs (without precluding spades).  I will bid three forcing-to-game clubs over any continuation."  Carl Hudecek wants "... to give partner room to pattern out.  A 1=4=2=6 or 1=2=4=6 pattern won't excite me."  While Robb Gordon is "... headed for game (possibly more), but I am not yet certain of strain."

3    100   BWP 52%   BWP 67% IAC 75%
Taking the hint, Kit Woolsey says "You talked me into it.  It will be complicated whatever I do, but partner's reaction to the splinter may be helpful."  And it is hard to ignore Masse24's point that "... the splinter conveys a lot of information, showing a lot of black cards."  More than half of the Panel, as well as clear majorities for both solver groups, used the splinter.  The major remaining split was whether to give up on spades for the final contract, or not.  Most thought there wsas still a chance for spades.  Kevin Bathurst thinks "Pretty-good description.  I'll try to offer spades later."  WackoJack says "The obvious descriptive bid.  If partner can next cue, we are on the road to slam."  Joel Wooldridge, similarly,  "How convenient this agreement is!  Gives me room to suggest four spades as well."  Doub and Wildavsky writes "Better to make the value bid for clubs and perhaps back into spades than to force with two diamonds, then bid spades, and back into clubs."  And Zia optimistically says "I intend to bid four spades next, permitting partner to pass with a singleton honor and offering a choice of spade game or club slam."  More realistic, Marty Bergen feels "Five clubs might have no play, or six could be cold.  If we belong in four spades, I'd love to be able to reach it."  JCreech:  "I have a huge fit, first or second round controls of the side suits, so I will splinter since I am assured that partner will take it as such.  Anything in the black suits from partner is gold, so partner should be in a position to evaluate that and decide whether to take a move toward slam."  Straddling the fence is Bart Bramley, who is "Heading for five clubs.  I'm not sitting for three notrump.  Might get to slam or back into four spades on the way." Concentrating on the bird in the hand (i.e., clubs), Frank Stewart is "Intending to show the heart ace next.  I give up on playing in spades, since North surely has several red cards."  Echoing with a bit more detail, Barry Bragin thinks "Most likely, the opponents have too many spades to compete, and partner is within one card of 1=3=3=6.  I'm giving up on spades to start the investigation into a club slam."  Meanwhile, I think Bart identifies the right reason for "Choosing diamonds as the 'purer' singleton."  Hearts, with full control, is not the singleton to highlight, while diamonds with only second-round control is better.  Nonetheless, it heartening to hear that Marc Jacobus "... learned a new convention."





Problem B  Double (Hoki, Blubayou, WackoJack)

Matchpoints  Neither side vulnerable
You, South, hold:

♠ A K Q J 9    —    J 9 6 5 2   ♣ Q J 10

SOUTH   WEST   NORTH   EAST
  ——      1         Pass       2
  2 ♠        3         Pass      Pass
   ?         
What call do you make?

The opponents are bidding aggressively, but willing to stop below game, in your void.  You are 5-5-3 in the other suits with 100 honors in the suit you overcalled in and your other five-bagger looks more like four, while the three-bagger has soft beef (QJ10).  Do you rebid your strength, double to show support for all suits, while risking a penalty pass that when all your quick tricks are in one suit, reverse into that ragged diamond suit, or bail altogether to avoid getting into worse trouble?

3 ♠   40   BWP 11%   BWS 3% IAC No solvers
The spade suit is fantastic, and there are a few Panelists willing to treat it as being longer than five.  Marty Bergen feels "Any suit with four honors can be treated as if it were one card longer."  While Marc Jacobus simply will "Rebid a good suit."

4    30   BWP 1 Panelist   BWS 18%  25% IAC No solvers
If you are willing to be at the four-level, you could have cue-bid on the first round, and then let partner ask if it matters which minor.  I find the bid of 4 !D to be confusing, suggesting longer spades (which is not wholly wrong given that the spades are close to a six-bagger and diamonds close to being only four).  However, Doub and Wildavsky choose this option because "If we double, partner will make the wrong decision far too often."  Masse24 simply sees the bid as "Aggressive, but since I did not first double should describe a distributional hand just under that threshold."  IAC was nearly a three-way split; the smallest chunk, 25%, bid their second suit despite going past their overcall suit.

Double   100   BWP 59%   BWS 56%  IAC 38%
The slightly offshape double is the Panel and BW solver favorite, but not without trepidation.  I like Hoki's perspective:  "maybe if I say it loudly enough or write it in capitals my partner will understand that it is takeout."  Zia is "Trying for a big board but perhaps getting knee-deep in the Big Muddy."  Ron Smith is "Closing my eyes."  While Phillip Alder finishes the thought, "And hope for the best."  Kevin Bathurst is "Holding my breath to see if partner passes."  And Nick L'Ecuyer is "Not selling out.  Not much defense if partner passes, but at least I can handle partner's doubleton spade lead."  Once you get past the knee-jerk reactions, you find the experience that says it is too soon to sell out.  Robert Wolff says "As I would have when I was 50 years younger and looking for the one big board that would win the tournament."  David Berkowitz thinks "It cannot be winning bridge to sell out to three hearts.  Two spades was just a noise, so now I must show my true values."  Eric Kokish agrees that it "Could blow up in my face easily enough, but I like it better than three diamonds or two spades, which ignore clubs."  Joel Wooldridge will "... apologize later when partner passes and the contract makes, or partner pulls and goes down two or more doubled."  Brian Platnick is "Not sure this is best, but passing hands like this isn't the way to win at matchpoints."  Drew Casen adds "To sell out to three hearts at matchpoints would be to beg for a bad score.  The five weak diamonds look like a four-bagger."  The co-plurality IAC choice was the double.  BluBayou gets the last word on this choice:  "Michaels is a better first round bid,  since I can not stand to give up NOW" to which I now remind him of his initial thoughts:  "some of us will follow up now with a double.  I wish them  the -530 they deserve, since partner could have made his own  penalty double,."

Pass   60   BWP 26%   BWS 23%  IAC 38%
Second choice for the Panel and BW solvers was to stay clear of the potential trouble.  WackoJack has thought this through:  "Best we can expect is an 8 card minor fit and another 4 points from partner to add to our 14 points.  The opps likely have a 9 card heart fit, meaning that if they can make 3 !H then we could go 2 off in 4m doubled for a zero. Or if they can only make 8 tricks in 3 !H then we have phantom sacd in 4m."  Robb Gordon points out that "I could be 'stepping into it' if partner has an indifferent hand with four or five decent hearts."  Carl Hudecek settles for "I put my lead-director in, and I will take my chances defending, matchpoints or no matchpoints.  Probably no matchpoints in this case."  Bart Bramley sums up the merits of pass best:  "Void and all white say bid, everything else says pass.  Second choice four diamonds, with thee spades in contention.  Double is out with so little defense.  If it's a three-level partscore deal, we did our job, which was to push them up."  JCreech has similar thoughts:  "Do I want to double with my only quick tricks in spades and partner may pass with a four or five card stack?  Do I want to rebid my spades with only five, albeit great, spades?  Do I want to try NT with a void in partner's probable longest suit?  Or do I want to introduce a jack-high suit at the four level?  Sometimes the better part of valor is to know when to back away."  The other co-plurality choice for IAC was to pass.




Problem C  2 !H (WackoJack, Masse24, JCreech, BabsG, CCR3)

Matchpoints  Both sides vulnerable
You, South, hold:

♠ A K 6 4 3 2    6 5 4 2    —   ♣ A K 3

SOUTH   WEST   NORTH   EAST
  1 ♠       Pass       1 NT     Pass
   ?         
What call do you make?

You opened a spade and partner bid a semi-forcing NT, how do you proceed with a sixth spade, albeit no spots after the AK, a four-card heart suit that perhaps should be thought of as being only three (maybe less) and a diaamond void?  The moderator pulls in a response from the 1960's:  Larry Weiss:  "Two-and-a-half spades.  What the hand is worth."  Then makes his own argument that "2.72 spades would be a better approximation; alas, bridge still discriminates against fractions ..."  Indeed, spades dominates this hand, but two is too little, while three is too much; so you are left with whether to round up or down, or bid something else to temporize on the way back to spades.

2 ♠   60   BWP 11%   BWS 28%  IAC One solver
Taking the low road, Frank Stewart "... can understand the show-more-than-five-of-your-cards philosophy of David Berkowitz and others.  Clearly, to bid two hearts might be best, but I'm afraid of playing there opposite a 1=3=5=4 minimum."  At matchpoints, Brian Platnik bids 2 !S "But two hearts at imps."

3 ♠   40   BWP 11%   BWS 12%  IAC One solver
Opting to round up, Robert Wolff also looks to a friend from the past"  "If Al Roth were here, he would bid two hearts and say, 'If I get by this round ..."  However, I haven't heard that lately - and for a good reason, because all too often he didn't."  Billy Eisenberg wonders about the alternative not taken:  "This hand is a great commercial for two clubs, as six hearts might make while three spades goes down."  An interesting consideration was raised by BluBayou:  "This one made and excellent hand for a 100-deal SIMULATION!  It turned out that rebidding   3 !S  and 2 !S come out dead even  IF you  assume the double-dummy opening lead.  Very many of the deals where 4 !S was on the cusp would have failed on an improbable lead,  but been easy  on some other."

2 ♣   50   BWP 11%   BWS 5%  IAC One solver
Some Panelists went one step further than Billy, and made the bid.  Marty Bergen argues:  "When in doubt, make the cheapest reaasonable bid.  Reasonable even though two clubs denies four hearts."  Hoki makes a "... tactical choice since 2♠ is an underbid and 3♠ leaves partner no room to express an opinion; I could even try 2 over 2."  Ron Smith describes his bid as "Strange but flexible."

2    100   BWP 67%   BWS 53%  IAC 63%
The obvious reason to bid 2 !H is expressed by Marc Jacobus: "I think I have four hearts."  Phillip Alder adds "If we belong in hearts, I must bid the suit."  Nick L'Ecuyer "says I cannot suppress hearts.  I'll bid three spades next.  Partner knows to be courteous in this auction."  Bart Bramley is "... a true believer here.  I might look silly when partner passes with three hearts, but I'll look good whenever I catch him with four or more.  Its impossible to reach hearts unless I bid the suit now."  This may be a good time to bring up that the fear of bidding 2 !H is that partner will pass with three hearts and a minimum.  Jeff Rubens thinks it is "Not necessarily a disaster opposite one=three in the majors."  Robb Gordon: "I'll pay off to three weak hearts and a stiff spade if partner passes.  I'll pass two spades."  Kit Woolsey: "If partner has four hearts, this will turn out very well.  If he doesn't, I may survive."  Doub and Wildavsky: "This might not be best if it end the auction, but it will probably work well on most other continuations."  Eric Kokish: "Sure, we could ignore hearts and perhaps feign holding 6=3=1=3 or 6=3=0=4, but if we have a future, bidding our suit in length order will often be important."  David Berkowitz is not even tempted:  "Automatic for me.  This hand will play so well opposite four-card heart support that I am disappointed even to see this problem here.  While we might not reach game, at least we will find our hearts."  Irina Levitina, though, is pragmatic:  "I am not going to guess how many spades to bid."  Some even remember that there is extra strength involved.  Kevin Bathurst "... won't skip the heart suit, and forcing to game would be too much, so I hope to survive this round."  WackoJack:  "To strong to rebid 2 !SJoel Wooldridge thinks the hand "Not strong enough to jump-shift, and I refuse to bury hearts.  I want to encourage game and introducing a new suit is the best way to do that."  JCreech argues "The advantage I see to bidding the hearts is that in addition to finding partner with four as well, you may get a preference to spades with two or three trump, and could make a game try."  However, Masse24 has a different worry than most:  "I have a strong hand, so 2 !H seems best. I worry though about this being directed by Kleinman."
A stairway to nowhere is better than no stairway at all.  -Kehlog Albran

blubayou

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Re: 2022 December MSC
« Reply #25 on: November 17, 2022, 11:11:31 PM »
RE:  problem C....A suprising sidebar in THIS 100 board simulation was that FINDING  our 4-4 heart fit was the most disasterous thing we could do almost every time one existed  (and stopping in 2 Hearts with a 4-3 fit also under-performed rather often as well).  No doubt, a second 100-board simulation will support the panel's landslide vote  for rebidding 2 !H , but the 2h rebid gave me the creeps and it still does.
often it is better to beg forgiveness, than ask permission

jcreech

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Re: 2022 December MSC
« Reply #26 on: November 19, 2022, 01:51:53 PM »
December MSC SUMMARY (Part 2) – Danny Kleinman Director


Problem D  Pass (CCR3, BluBayou, WackoJack, BabsG,  Masse24, JCreech)

Imps  North-South vulnerable
You, South, hold:

♠ 8 5 3 2    Q J 5 2    —   ♣ A Q 10 9 7

SOUTH   WEST   NORTH   EAST
  ——      ——      ——        4
  Pass      Pass    Double   Pass
   ?         
What call do you make?

The opponents open 4 !H in first seat, partner reopens with a double in the passout seat, and now it is your turn holding four trump to the QJ, a very nice 5-bagger in clubs, a ragged 4-bagger in spades, and, of course, that leaves a void in diamonds.  Let us not forget that the vulnerability favors the opponents.  Although there are several choices, Danny Kleinman, the moderator, laments that "The overwhelming majority for the penalty pass obscures the closeness of the decision.  There's no science to help us, nor much information of any kind on which to base judgment."
 
4 ♠   40   BWP 7%   BWS 28%  IAC 1 solver
One option is to bid the spade game.  If you have gme, then the penalty may not be enough to cover the vulnerable game.
Carl Hudecek "Could be easy opposite four decent spades and the king of clubs.  If the oppenents have a diamond fit, this could be a double-game-swing deal."

6 ♣   30   BWP 1 Panelist   BWS 1%  IAC   No solvers
Bidding clubs, Marc Jacobus answer was better than his choice: "No good answer."  On this problem, it truly is a guess.  Even the moderator admired the bid:  "If you're right a whopping big gain awaits you.  Four spades making earns us 3 imps when four hearts doubled goes down three, but six clubs making earns us 13 imps, and as far as we know each may be equally iffy."

Pass   100   BWP 89%   BWS 66%  IAC 75%
The reason why people preempt is that it works, and sometimes when you are fixed, the best course is to stay fixed.  The vulnerability makes it extremely tempting to bid,  but at the four-level and above, with a hand such as you hold, the risk-reward calculation may leave you wanting.  Jeff Rubens puts it in terms of a "Bird-and-a-half in the hand versus highly-variable potential in the bush."  Masse24 wants  to "Take the plus."  Brian Platnik found an interesting way to avoid the temptation of bidding:  "I didn't bid hearts with six-five-four-deuce in Problem C, so to be consistent I refuse to bid spades with eight-five-three-deuce."  Robert Wolff is "Listening to what my cards tell me, not to the voiceless hopes of cards unseen.  we may be cold for a black-suit game, even slam, but we cannot get there without taking inordinate risks."  JCreech says "I have a lot of defense for my bidding up to this point, so I will try for the penalty for a plus."  Kit Woolsey thinks "The heart holding is worth two more tricks with hearts trump than with a black suit trump.  To bid either clubs or spades is to guess, and even if we have a game, we might score more on defense."  Phillip Alder says "I cannot be sure of a spade fit.  If five clubs scores 600 and four hearts doubled earns only 500, we may lose 3 imps or none at all."  WackoJack points to the "Possible but uncertain 620 missed. Bet on the more likely defend for +300 or 500."  Drew Casen: "If I knew which game figured to make, I would bid it.  What I do know is that four hearts will be beaten badly.  Take the money."  Joel Wooldridge writes: "The spades are weak and the splits may be bad.  I'd bid four spades at matchpoints, as I think it is likely to make, but not at imps where the difference in scores may be small even when it does make.  Passing guards against partner's having only three spades or our finding exceeding bad breaks."  Marty Bergen "As partner is unlimited, anything is possible, but I want the sure plus."  Barry Bragin: "Glad it's imps as 500 vs 650 isn't a disaster.  Yes, we might have a slam, but partner might not have four strong spades and is unlikely to bid more anyway."  Circling round, Irina Levitina says "When opponents preempt and you must guess, guess to go plus."






Problem E  2 NT  (Peuco)

Imps  East-West vulnerable
You, South, hold:

♠ Q    A K Q 10 8    Q 7 5   ♣ A K 8 5

SOUTH   WEST   NORTH   EAST
  ——      ——      Pass      Pass
  1        2         Pass      Pass
   ?         
What call do you make?

You hold 20 HCPs, most of which are in your two longest suits, hearts and clubs.  You opened 1 !H in third seat, but West overcalled.  If the overcall had been in spades, this would not have been much of a problem, but the overcall was in diamonds. This leaves you with a dubious stopper and a outside singleton to make either a double or NT less than obvious choices, while the suits are either too short or the level too high to make them desirable.

2    40   BWP 7%   BWS 4  IAC   No solvers
Choosing to rebid hearts, Joel Wooldridge says "I prefer two hearts, because the suit is powerful, and I'd rather not play in three clubs opposite three-card support."

3 ♣   40   BWP 7%   BWS 45%  IAC 75%
Trying clubs at the three-level to show nine cards, David Berkowitz is not even tempted:  "Automatic for me.  This hand will play so well opposite four-card ... support that I am disappointed even to see this problem here."  Wait a minute - this was his response on Problem C when the long suit was AK-sixth and the second suit was 6-fourth - while this time David bid 2NT - I wonder where the automatic went?  Let's check out some who actually bid 3 !CRobert Wolff said "Bid what I have and hope for the best.  ... North may well have long clubs and short diamonds, in which case we might make five clubs.  Little risk in trying?"  Masse24 is more succinct:  "Bid what I have."  WackoJack wonders "What else?"  Zia answers:  "I considered two notrump, but that would risk a spade lead and umpteen tricks for the opponents before we took any.  Partner is likely to have at least four clubs, and we may have a super fit."  JCreech: "Without length in the spade suit, and length in the diamonds, double is clearly wrong.  Qxx is a shaky stop at best, so I am not inclined to bid NT unilaterally.  That leaves cue-bid looking for help and 3 !C.  I prefer to bid where I live; partner still has room to cue-bid and ask if NT is right."  Hoki: "since I’d hate the thought of having to cope with 2♠ from partner should I double."

2 NT   100   BWP 44%   BWS 19%  IAC 1 solver
So what happened with Mr.  Show-my-shape David Berkowitz, he argues that "As I might have opened two notrump, I see no reason not to bid it now."  Barry Bragin has what I consider to be the best argument for the bid:  "Too strong to give up on game. A double would risk partner's insisting on spades.  I can hope that North has enough bits and pieces to keep East off lead and protect my tenuous diamond stopper."  Kit Woolsey feels that "Passing would be too risky, and notrump is most-likely game."  Phillip Alder: "Not without risk, of course, but with a good potential upside."  Eric Kokish says "Roughly what the hand is worth, and as such, often the simplest solution to a tough problem."  Nick L'Ecuyer "Not perfect, but the least of evils."  This was not a rousing endorsement for the bid that garnered the top score.

Pass   70   BWP 30%   BWS 11%  IAC 1 solver
Frank Stewart describes well why a pass should be considered: "If West has any kind of vulnerable, two-level overcall, I can't see our side making game.  I'll settle for a plus on defense."  Brian Platnik says "My first thought was to bid two notrump, but, on reflection, I doubt that we have a game, and we're more likely to go plus defending."  BluBayou "too few values left for pard to have;  2!D overcall may be their 'last mistake'"  Jeff Rubens thinks this is the "Best chance (a good chance!) for a plus; game looks unlikely."  Carl Hudecek went for the surprise:  "Partner couldn't eke out a heart raise or double.  Maybe he can eke out an 'Eek!' after he sees my hand."  While Irina Letitina asks "Where are all the spades?"  The moderator responds "Good question!  Unless the opponents have eight spades, in which case they've missed their best spot, North has at least five.  either way, we should be happy not to give the spade holders another chance to bid."

Double   50   BWP 11%   BWS 19%  IAC   No solvers
Going where few have dared to tred on this Problem, Kevin Bathurst says "Pass is tempting, but we could easily have a good game."





Problem F  2 !D  (BluBayou, WackoJack, Hoki, Masse24)

Imps  North-South vulnerable
You, South, hold:

♠ A K 5 4   ♥ —   ♦ K J 7 6 4   ♣ A K Q 4

SOUTH   WEST   NORTH   EAST
  ——      ——      ——       2 ♣*
   ?         
*six-plus clubs (or five clubs with a four-card major); 11-15 HCP

What call do you make?

So far in five hands, we have seen three voids and three singletons, usually in less than the most useful of suits.  With this Problem, add another less-than-useful void to the totals.  The opponents have opened a natural 2 !C, and while you have the club suit completely controlled, it is with high cards, while your void is in hearts.  And with your strength added to the promised range of opener, LHO and partner have 5 to 9 points to split between them.  Is there a way to bring partner into the discussion, and show the strength and distribution of your hand?

Pass   40   BWP 7%   BWS 9%  IAC   No solvers
Having no good bid to make, some pass and pray.  Billy Eisenberg "Hoping for West to try two hearts."  Barry Bragin "When there is no good bid, choose No Bid.  This might end the auction, but so might any other call (except a double, which flirts with a major disaster).  I hope the opponents' methods allow for a non-invitational two-hear response.  That will offer me a perfect way back into the auction."

2    100   BWP 56%   BWS 32%  IAC   50%
Others give up on showing the strength, and hope that by showing the long suit, there will be an opportunity to show the strength later.  As WackoJack writes "I will risk a pass out.  Double or 2NT looks wrong"  Bart Bramley believes that "With the entire heart suit out there, I should get another chance.  The same theory might suggest passing now, but I'm less sanguine about a second chance if I do that.  ... Playing in two diamonds is not necessarily a bad outcome."  Masse24: "Tactical. A double would let west off the hook. This will elicit the presumed 2 !H from west and if it comes round to me I can show my spades."  Hoki also claims "another 'tactical' choice since the thought of having to cope with some number of hearts bid from partner over a double or notrump bid is traumatic"  Carl Hudecek says "If partner bids hearts, I will bid spades.  This is too strong a hand to pass two clubs.  Look how well it plays opposite five low spades and out."  Brian Platnik thinks "This looks about average for a vulnerable, two-level Eric-Kokish overcall."  While Eric Kokish, himself, says "Great hand, terrible suit: atypical for direct action but maybe it will find a fit or someone will bid hearts.  At this vulnerability, one mustn't pass with so much strength."  BluBayou: "can't expect to really enjoy  +50"  And Zia gets the last word for this choice: "Save me, someone!  Someone will, right?  I couldn't handle a double and the ensuing..."

Double   60   BWP 26%   BWS 52%  IAC   50%
Still others try to get across the strength, despite the imperfect shape.  Robb Gordon points out that it is "Hard to show a big hand without doubling first."  Robert Wolff continues by saying "We must suggest huge strength.  From there, we will do our best to sort out where to land, making every effort to avoid a heart contract, unless partner insists by showing at least seven decent hearts."  JCreech is more concerned about the poor shape:  "I hate doubling without hearts, but at least I can takeout partner's hearts with spades and suggest both pointed suits."

3 NT   40   BWP 7%   BWS 3  IAC  No solvers
Preferring to concentrate on their triple stop in clubs while ignoring the void, some tried 3 NT.  Jeff Rubens writes "Failure to double first suggests playing strength (probably ong diamonds) rather than at least a moderate fit for the unbid suits - not great, but the best I can do."  And Phillip Alder says "I refuse to double with a heart void.  Two notrump would be a big underbid, but if we belong in spades, two notrump would give us more change of getting there."  Interesting - refuse to double with a heart void, but to bid the NT game with the same void and no information about partner's hand is ok - go figure.

2 ♠   30   BWP 1 Panelist   BWS 1  IAC  No solvers
Frank Stewart is "Choosing this bid in honor of Mike Lawrence, with whom I have debated the merits of four-card overcalls.  South should point toward the most-likely game, and if I happen to catch North with a big spade fit, I will reach game."
« Last Edit: November 20, 2022, 03:03:24 AM by jcreech »
A stairway to nowhere is better than no stairway at all.  -Kehlog Albran

jcreech

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Re: 2022 December MSC
« Reply #27 on: November 21, 2022, 08:40:43 PM »
December MSC SUMMARY (Part 3) – Danny Kleinman Director


Problem G  3 NT  (JCreech, BabsG, Masse24, BluBayou, Peuco, CCR3)

Imps  North-South vulnerable
You, South, hold:

♠ A 8    A J 8    A 6   ♣ A K Q J 4 3

SOUTH   WEST   NORTH   EAST
  ——      ——       Pass      3
   ?         
What call do you make? 

Finally, we have some serious debate about which direction the Panel thinks is the best action on a Problem hand.  Partner is a passed hand, RHO opened 3 !H in front of you, you hold 23 HCPs, including a solid six-bagger and all of the outside bullets, and your side is vulnerable while the opponents are not. Do you go with the near certain vulnerable game, or do you risk getting too high with some other action?

6 ♣   40   BWP 7%   BWS 3%  IAC  No solvers
Some just blast into the club slam.  Doub and Wildavsky point out that there is "No intelligent way to choose among three notrump, five clubs, six clubs, and seven clubs."  While Jeff Rubens regards the bid as "Optimistic, but we can't expect partner to cooperate with even the strongest try when he has no ace, no club honor, and very likely no more than the average strength we can expect (which isn't very much when our haand is so strong)."

4 NT   40   BWP 7%   BWS 6%  IAC  No solvers
I try to steer clear of bids that can easily be misinterpreted.  However, the moderator, Danny Kleinman,  clarifies that "BWS is not explicit on this issue, so it rules that four notrump is natural by default.  Still, four notrump has the huge flaw that partner may misinterpret it."  Not certain, Robb Gordon pleads, "Please tell me this isn't 'unusual'!"  Robert Wolff: "Bidding a prosaic three notrump would require adding a prayer for partner to hold a near-yarborough, lest we miss a slam."  Irina Levitina brings to the table the misperception, so she bids something else: "It would be nice if four notrump were natural."  As does Bart Bramley: "I think four notrump shows minors."

3 NT   100   BWP 44%   BWS 57%  IAC 75%
A plurality of the Panel and a majority of the solvers just bid what they know can be made.  JCreech sums up the situation:  "23 HCPs, a probable double stop in the opponents suit, first round control in all suits, and nine almost certain tricks.  There may be a slam in these cards, but I will settle for the almost certain game."  Kit Woolsey wonders "Maybe this is all we can make."  Ron Smith says "Nothing like a sure plus, but I could be missing a slam."  Carl Hudecek: "A close-out call at imps, vulnerable, and with partner a passed hand."  Bart Bramley believes "Partner's pass reduces slam possibilities."  Masse24 finds it "Very tempting to try 6 !C.would be inane - But I rate it as a bit less than 50%."  Zia: "This or six clubs.  I guess if I don't bid six clubs, few will.  A double - of do I mean insane?  King-queen-ten-fifth of spades or diamonds produces an easy grand slam, but queen-ten-fifth in one and king-third in the other is more likely."  Billy Eisenberg thinks that "Though we might miss a good six clubs, we might also go down in five clubs."  Barry Bragin, similarly, "Yes, we might have a laydown grand slam, bug there is no way to investigate intelligently without risking a minus.  I'll play it (very) safe."  Perhaps cruelly, Drew Casen says "Take the money.  Anyone who doubles deserves to see partner reply four diamonds and wind up in a failing five clubs."

Double   90   BWP 41%   BWS 32% 1 solver
WackoJack thinks:  "Easy!  The problem is my next bid over 3 !S."  Kevin Bathurst is "Trying to get my strength across."  And David Berkowitz thinks the hand "Too strong for three notrump."  Some are clearly slamming, Frank Stewart "I plan to bid six clubs, hoping that North has about 6 points - his fair share of what's missing.  I will have a good play if he holds something resembling:  ♠ Kxxx    xx    QJxxx   ♣ xx.  If I double first, I may hear something helpful.  I am stuck by the psychology of slam bidding.  Pairs that are quick to bid by iffy vulnerable games are slow to bid even slightly speculative slams."  Marty Bergen's plans are more elaborate: "Six clubs may make easily opposite a very week hand such as:  ♠ Kxxx    x    xxxxx   ♣ 10xx.  I expect partner to advance three spades, and I will then bid three notrump.  But if he bids at the four-level, it's off to slam I go.  After four diamonds, a hopeful six clubs; after for spades, a confident six clubs; after four hearts, I'll envision a stiff heart and dream of seven clubs; after four notrump (choice of minors), I'll bid seven clubs, expecting to claim."






Problem H  !S 5  (CCR3, Peuco, BluBayou, Masse24)

Imps  Both sides vulnerable
You, South, hold:

♠ 9 8 6 5 4    10 3    A 2   ♣ A J 10 6

SOUTH   WEST   NORTH   EAST
  ——      ——      Pass      1 ♣*
  Pass      1        Pass      1 ♠
  Pass      2        Pass      2 NT
  Pass      3 NT      (All Pass)
*BWS: East-West use Bridge World Standard

What is your opening lead?

The moderator paints the picture:  "The vote chart doesn't paint the best picture of this problem, which encompasses three issues:  (1)Active defense or passive?  (2) If passive, hearts or spades?  (3) If a black suit, which card?" 

♣ J   40   BWP 11%   BWS 10%  IAC 1 solver
Making an active lead, Carl Hudecek "I expect to be in the plurality."  He's wrong, because most went passively.  Hoki: "am always a sucker for 'standard' leads; really can’t see how a spade lead into declarer’s four card suit which is likely to contain two or three honors can help us."  Nick L'Ecuyer thinks the lead "Our best shot to take five tricks before declarer takes nine."  However, Joel Wooldridge finds "A club lead has little appeal to me, as it would let declarer win the king easily, and leading the jack would weaken my holding in the suit."

♣ 6   30   BWP 7%   BWS 5%  IAC  No solvers
Alternatively, Kevin Bathurst is "... hoping partner can contribute a club and then gain the lead to continue clubs.  If a club lead is wrong, it's probably fatal."  A good point by Kevin, if an active lead is wrong, it can be very wrong.

10   70   BWP 30%   BWS 31%  IAC  No solvers
Both plurality choices involved passive leads.  David Berkowitz argues "As suits do not appear to be splitting favorably for declarer, I see no reason to do anything but defend passively."  Barry Bragin thinks that "Partner appears to have at least four, maybe five hearts.  I can hope that when he gets in he will see from dummy's holdings that my values, and our defensive prospects, lie in clubs."  Marty Bergen says "In my dreams, partner has the heart king and the club queen.  I definitely would have overcalled one spade."  Frank Stewart: "But the spade nine if North flickered over three notrump."  Zia is "Combining aggression and hope.  A spade lead is all right but not ambitious enough."  The heart apparently received a lower score because of the passive suits, it was chosen less often.

♠ 9   80   BWP 11%   BWS 18%  IAC 25%
Based on BWS understanding, if you are going to lead a spade, then the nine is one partner should expect - second highest from length unless the highest card is touching, then the highest card is selected.  WackoJack writes, "I chose 9 !S without looking at the bidding.  Then I looked and still chose the 9 !S."  Robert Wolff thinks it is the "Least risk of blowing a trick.  Second choice, ten of hearts, but I'd rather leave hearts to declarer to attack, for the ten may have surprising value as the second or fourth card to play to a trick."  And Phillip Alder:  "Only because everything else looks worse."

♠ 5   100   BWP 30%   BWS 22%  IAC 50%
The other plurality choice was the !S 5.  Bart Bramley considers the lead to be "Automatic.  Spades is best both for setting up tricks and for avoiding blowing tricks.  The five is much better than the ninm as dummy may will have a short honor that declarer will surely play."  According to BluBayou's analysis: "... leading around to declarer's pretty good spade suit:  I am KEEPING  my 9-8 for later!.  If there is a mighty crash of honors on the first two tricks,  the  9-8  may have grown up into 'something",  and I may be glad to have a pusher later to set up the fourth round.  My motive  is not ENTIRELY  to go passive, you see, so I don't care if I have given partner a wrong message too much  (In fact  I will be pleased as punch  if he even gets in, before I do!)"  Joel Wooldridge sound a bit like Jock:  "Leading the nine could cost a trick when partner has two honors doubleton."  Jeff Rubins is thinking differently:  "I hope to induce declarer to put up dummy's likely doubleton honor; by retaining the nine and eight, I'll be able to continue spades safely later if necessary."  Brian Platnik: "Leading a higher spade could cost a trick.  If partner wins an early trick and needs to shift to clubs, I may regret not having led a higher spot."  Kit Woolsey says "Safe enough, and my spots in spades may come through for tricks."  Eric Kokish thinks "North doesn't need much behind dummy's likely singleton or doubleton honor for this to work."  And actually responding to Jock elsewhere in the thread, Masse24 says "Not crazy. I actually like this. ;)Ron Smith, though, has a different concern attached to his lead: "I'll never be accused of cheating.  My leads are not so hot."

♠ 6   90   BWP 11%   BWS 2%  IAC  No solvers
The six is an interesting alternative, trying to alter the message of a low spade, while retaining the high spades as pushers.  Doub and Wildavsky "We like spades; the issue is high or low.  The nine will keep partner from giving declarer a trick by playing high from king-third or ace-ten-low.  The five will let us lead the nine later when declarer's spades include the seven.  The guiding principle is:  trick-taking takes priority over signaling.  The five risks misleading partner, but we deem it a risk worth taking.  Between the five and six; the six seems wishy-washy, no better than the five and sometimes worse."  Drew Casen "I don't want to waste the nine with length on my right, and I can't lead lower when I am likely to want a club shift.  So I lead middle in the hope that partner can figure it out."

♠ 8/4   70   BWP No Panelists   BWS 9%  IAC 1 solver
No Panelists went with the other two spade options; the eight might have been sloppy, selecting the second highest, but not so the four.  JCreech had "... decided that a low spade was best based on Blu's thinking, but went with the false card to since partner is unlikely to be harmed, and it may give declarer an incorrect inferential count of the hand."
« Last Edit: November 22, 2022, 11:54:05 AM by jcreech »
A stairway to nowhere is better than no stairway at all.  -Kehlog Albran

Masse24

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Re: 2022 December MSC
« Reply #28 on: November 23, 2022, 02:51:49 AM »
Thank you, Jim.
“Kindness is the only service that will stand the storm of life and not wash out. It will wear well and will be remembered long after the prism of politeness or the complexion of courtesy has faded away.” Abraham Lincoln

wackojack

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Re: 2022 December MSC
« Reply #29 on: November 24, 2022, 12:02:15 PM »
Thanks Jim for all the work.  It is very interesting seeing ones own comments mixed in with the world class and fellow iac players.   

I am interested that Todd says he is inclined to vote strategically to get the best score, thinking what would the moderator favour.  Personally I vote what I would do against a field of world class players as does the panel.   However in real life, if you want to win an event with the field roughly equal in ability you must go anti field.  In that way you either win or come way down the field.