Author Topic: Shape, LOTT, all that jazz  (Read 2158 times)

kenberg

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Shape, LOTT, all that jazz
« on: July 04, 2022, 01:59:36 PM »
We had some good luck on the challenge yesterday. I'll post the last hand. I am curious as to what everyone thinks should happen. For example, what is the par contract? Is it plausible to reach it? NS have 17 cards in the majors, and so EW have 17 cards in the minors. Is LOTT accurate and can it be confidently applied during the bidding?


https://www.bridgebase.com/tools/handviewer.html?lin=st||pn|S,W,N,E|md|4SKQ8763H973DT82C2,SA95H4DK654CAQJ54,ST42HAKJT6D7CKT73,SJHQ852DAQJ93C986|sv|b|rh||ah|Board%2010|mb
 

I am assuming that a discussion of these boards is welcome. There were more than the usual number of shapely hands yesterday, and that always leads to some guesswork.


« Last Edit: July 04, 2022, 09:11:58 PM by kenberg »
Ken

jcreech

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Re: Shape, LOTT, all that jazz
« Reply #1 on: July 04, 2022, 07:50:10 PM »
Ken, the best way to paste a hyperlink is to use the hyperlink format around the actual hyperlink - that way the whole thing is treated the way you want.  On my screen, it is the second button on the second line (below the italics button) - it puts in ["url"] hyperlink [/"url"] without the quote marks.
A stairway to nowhere is better than no stairway at all.  -Kehlog Albran

kenberg

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Re: Shape, LOTT, all that jazz
« Reply #2 on: July 04, 2022, 09:11:29 PM »
Ah yes  I should have thought of that. I use URL hyperlinks all the time in other contexts.
Ken

blubayou

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Re: Shape, LOTT, all that jazz
« Reply #3 on: July 09, 2022, 01:28:02 AM »
Hi;  just claiming my seat ken and james....   seems to me  the lott is doing ok on this example  ( i see 10 tricks in !d and 9 in !S,  with a chance to screw up and bring the TNT number down to 9+9  which is the TNTrumps  in the main fits  and disregarding the [size=78%]'plus" tweaks for  (both)  secondary good 8-carders.[/size]
[size=78%]  We were DESTROYED  in the late challenge match,  being down by 45  on this the 20th deal....Our teamies nailed this one buying it in 4 !D,  but my table ran from 5!DX  to 5!S -300....turning +9 into -9.  [/size]
[size=78%]   ACROSS THE BORDER will  petition for these opps next month / we cannot let our honor be so be-smerched!![/size]
often it is better to beg forgiveness, than ask permission

kenberg

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Re: Shape, LOTT, all that jazz
« Reply #4 on: July 09, 2022, 02:02:25 PM »
Yes, LOTT is correct but not quite as you say. There is a 9 card fit in both D and S so LOTT says 18 total tricks. and so there are, the spade contract can be held to 8 tricks, and there are 10 tricks in diamonds. So LOTT is right, but it illustrates issues with LOTT. 130 to EW is the par contract, but if I (I was S) open 2S and the opponents compete then surely pard will raise to 3S, and double dummy I am off 1 for -200. But of course they won't double, and they might not hold me to 8 tricks if they do. In reality, the other table got to 4S and were off 3. And, at one point during the play of 3D, it could have been held to 9 tricks. Further, I didn't open 2S, it seemed a bit pushy when vul wit KQxxxx and nothing else. The problem with opening it 2S is not that I am worried, or not terribly worried, that I will be playing 2S off a few but rather I worry that partner will expect, or at least hope for, more with my vul opening and compete at too high a level, as happened at the other table.

So, first round,  I just passed, after which Lho opened 1D, partner overcalled 1H, Rho bid 2D, I bid 2H and then 3D ended the auction.

I asked in my post if the LOTT total could be discovered during the auction, and I guess the answer is maybe yes, maybe no. As we bid it, we knew we had an 8 card heart fit but we never learned of the 9 card spade fit. W knew of their 9 card diamond fit but I  doubt E could be sure of it.

So double dummy LOTT is right, there are 8+10=18 total tricks in S and D, or at least there are 18 total tricks if everyone declares and defends optimally.  We arrived at the par contract of 3D played EW but there is a certain amount of stumbling into it since we have a 9 card spade fit we never explored.

Bridge is an interesting game.
« Last Edit: July 09, 2022, 02:06:46 PM by kenberg »
Ken

wackojack

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Re: Shape, LOTT, all that jazz
« Reply #5 on: July 16, 2022, 07:30:18 PM »
The problem with opening it 2S is not that I am worried, or not terribly worried, that I will be playing 2S off a few but rather I worry that partner will expect, or at least hope for, more with my vul opening and compete at too high a level, as happened at the other table.

So, first round,  I just passed,

Rest assured Ken.  If my partner opens a weak 2 then I will believe it to be a weak 2.  Ofcourse if my partner happened to open the weak 2 with a 10 count and we had game on I would be very annoyed that partner opened a weak 2 with a 10 count. 
A weak 2 is a weak 2 and therefore not a 10 count in my book. 

Had you opened 2 !S I think I would have passed with the good heart suit.  Had opps then doubled and bid 3 !D I would have taken that as a likeley 9 card fit and so competed with a LAW raise to 3 !S.  No way would I be tempted to go to 4 !S.


kenberg

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Re: Shape, LOTT, all that jazz
« Reply #6 on: July 16, 2022, 11:55:12 PM »
4S is optimistic, I probably just make an immediate raise to 3S.

As to opening 2S on a 10 count I have been known to do it. I have never liked the idea that a hand with a six-card major could be too strong for a 2M bid and too weak for a 1M bid so I do one or the other unless there are other aspects of the hand that I worry about. Bad suit quality could convince me to pass rather than bid either 1 or 2.

Other opinions?
Ken

blubayou

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Re: Shape, LOTT, all that jazz
« Reply #7 on: July 17, 2022, 01:29:44 AM »
"Tweeners"  DO exist!

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kenberg

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Re: Shape, LOTT, all that jazz
« Reply #8 on: July 17, 2022, 12:53:20 PM »
My thinking, I suppose I am a traditionalist.

On this hand partner has three card support, the AK of hearts, an outside K, and a stiff diamond. Still, good defense holds me to 8 tricks. Am I really so keen on declaring this hand in a spade contract? If I am non-vul against vul, ok. But vul? I'd rather not.

More generally: I think that 2S should suggest that I'll probably be ok in 2S if partner has only modest values and a doubleton spade, and I will probably be ok if partner has three spades and some shape and so competes to 3S. And, if my Lho declares, I would like to think I will be fine with an opening spade lead from partner. My posted hand satisfies this last requirement.

Another way of thinking about it. Some expert, I forget who it was, said that you want to give partner accurate information during the auction but then, if the opponents buy the hand, you might well regret putting this info out there. Meaning here that when the opponents play a diamond contract then knowing spades split 6-3 might be of use to declarer.


I don't usually play multi bids, but I will comment on N's response to the 2D call at the other table. At least as I play multis, when I play them, it seems N's bid is 2S or 3S. Yes his hearts are (much) stronger but the 2S bid says so. The idea is to say "Yeah, I have good hearts in case that is actually your suit, but if, as I am guessing, your suit is spades then 2S will be fine. Or he could bid 3S with the same meaning: Sure, 4H will be fine if hearts are your suit, but if it's spades then let's play 3S.

But multis need discussion and it's a matter of choice.

As to the in-between hands, too much fo 2S and too little for 1S, I don't think I ever do that if I have a good spade suit. If I have a six-card spade suit, no singleton, so 6-3-2-2 in some order, and a ten-count consisting of two kings and two queens all in different suits, I probably pass. I wouldn't call it too strong for a weak 2, just wrong for a weak 2. And I am not suicidal so 1S is not my call either. With a ten count that consists of the KQJ of spades and a couple of outside queens but not much shape, I am fine with 2S. With a six-card suit including of the KQJ and an outside A, I am fine with 1S.
Mostly, if I pass holding six spades and a ten count, it's probably with a hand where I am not at all sure I want to play in spades and not at all sure I want partner to lead a spade if we end up on defense.
Ken

Masse24

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Re: Shape, LOTT, all that jazz
« Reply #9 on: July 17, 2022, 06:26:04 PM »
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