Author Topic: 2022 March MSC  (Read 9391 times)

kenberg

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Re: 2022 March MSC
« Reply #15 on: January 28, 2022, 02:47:46 PM »
I have been amusing myself, sort of, with A. I think that N should not be a minimal 13 count to X at the 3 level, if that's what he had he could pass and see if I want to balance in the pass out seat. Passing, as I did, on the first round and then making a balancing X is not out of the question if I have the right hand. Here I don't have the right hand.

Anyway. I made up a lay-out that is perhaps optimistic but here it is:

The N hand, as I chose it:


!S AK98
!H KQ87
!D 76
!C K52



!S 765
!H A94
!D T3
!C AQ987


I then gave EW cards such I could imagine E opening 2 !D and W raising to 3 and gave the hand to the robots.
The auction did indeed begin 2 !D - Pass - 3 !D - X - Pass

The robot passed the double, the result was 3 !D X off 2.

I then imposed the following on the robots. As S, on the second round, I bid 4 !D in response to the X,

Of course N then bid 4 !H passed out.

I gave W a 3=4=3=3 shape. Surely N, in 4 !H, has to be prepared for a 4-2 split in trump. The robot was down 1 but could have, and I think should have, made it. The defense was two rounds of !D and then a switch to !S. N took it, cashed three rounds of !H,  and went down. Better if, after he takes the !S switch, he immediately ducks a !H. He can then win the next trick, draw trump, run clubs.

Interestingly, despite the 8 card club fit and the 7 card heart fit, and the 3-2 cub split and the 4-2 heart split, 4 !H makes (can make) and, as near as I can see, 5 !C doesn't. They take the first two !D and then wait for a !S. Declarer could hope for a ! S - ! H squeeze, but it's not there.

Quick summary:

The robot, with the given hand and the given auction, passed the X and they set it two tricks. So the bot's entry in the MSC is to pass. With the four hands as I laid the out, 4 !H can be made but wasn't, and 4 !C makes on the nose.

Added: I note that LOTT world here. We make 10 tricks in our 8 card !C fit, they make 7 tricks in their 9 card !D fit. I suppose I might think about the possibility that they have a ten card !D fit, pard having a stiff.
« Last Edit: January 28, 2022, 06:55:27 PM by kenberg »
Ken

Masse24

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Re: 2022 March MSC
« Reply #16 on: January 28, 2022, 04:48:28 PM »
On the lead problem, no one has yet mentioned the viability of a trump lead. Dummy will have, at most, a doubleton spade. I worry about losing the tempo required to reduce the cross ruffs. But leading a stiff trump is high on the list of "never do it."

So I dunno. Maybe best to retreat to the safety of a diamond.

As an afterthought, I should add that I hate lead problems.

« Last Edit: January 28, 2022, 05:19:53 PM by Masse24 »
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bAbsG

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Re: 2022 March MSC
« Reply #17 on: January 28, 2022, 07:49:53 PM »
SOLVER: Babs Giesbrecht  Canada

Your Solutions for the March 2022 Contest 
-------------------
PROBLEM A: 4 Diamonds
PROBLEM B: 3 Hearts
PROBLEM C: 3 Spades
PROBLEM D: Pass
PROBLEM E: Pass
PROBLEM F: Pass
PROBLEM G: 4 Hearts
PROBLEM H: Diamond 10

msphola

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Re: 2022 March MSC
« Reply #18 on: January 28, 2022, 10:01:39 PM »
A.  4H
B.  3N
C. 2S
D. 2S
E. P
F. 3C
G. 4H
H. 2H

wackojack

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Re: 2022 March MSC
« Reply #19 on: January 29, 2022, 11:56:28 AM »
Problem A

I discount west having a 5 card major because with decent cards in those suits it is better to overcall with 5 unless very strong.  West is most likely to have 4 ♦s for the raise.  This would give opps a 9 or 10 card ♦ fit.  If 10 card fit then partner has a singleton ♦ but perhaps more likely a doubleton ♦.  So partner’s distribution is most likely 4423 or perhaps 4414.  If 4423 the total tricks are 8+9 =17 and if say we can make 4♣ then opps are 2 off in 3♦.  OTOH if opps have a 10 card ♦ fit partner is much more likely to have 4 club cards.  Then total tricks =10 +9 =19.  Then if we can make 4♣ opps can make 3♦.  Also, if we can make 5♣, opps are only 1 off in 3♦. 

So do we go for:
Pass?  Likely a top if correct and a zero if wrong
4♣?  Likely av+ if just making and av- if down or 5♣ makes.
5♣?  Top or bottom again
I think we need to have table feel for the opps to know the correct answer.  I would like to pass the double but if it did happen to make I can just see the look of accusations in partner’s face

kenberg

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Re: 2022 March MSC
« Reply #20 on: January 29, 2022, 12:42:04 PM »
I think a 5=4=1=3 shape is possible. It's true that X could lead to missing a 5-3 spade fit but it is also true that bidding 3 !S could lead to missing a 4-4 heart fit. Holding a good three cards in clubs I might reason that if pard has four cards in either major the double will be fine, and if he lacks four cards in either major then he might well have five clubs. Maybe, maybe not, but since the short diamonds are in my hand this might play well in clubs.

Still, while I think it is possible for partner to have five spades or five hearts, he usually won't.

I was discussing this hand while drinking gin and quarks with the robots, and they are thinking pass. I'm still just thinking. I think I have ruled out the jump to 5 !C.
Ken

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Re: 2022 March MSC
« Reply #21 on: January 29, 2022, 09:43:21 PM »
Problem A:   This will not be a good day for opps'  2-bid  treatment     
                                                  PASS
Problem B:   Just WILL NOT bid 3 over 3 when both sides have max of 8 trumps.
                                                   PASS          
Probelm C:   Jim's worry that "2 !S "   may be taken as natural  is justified-- because it IS.  If we want to cue bid then we're stuck with  "2D". West doesn't have to have deliberately PSYCHED,  for spades to be our trump suit after all.                                     Four Hearts
Problem D:   Partner is loaded, but very unprepared for one minor suit from me (no 1NT overcall)... I am betting the ranch that suit is clubs-->       DOUBLE
Problem E:   In the 1950's,  Shenken wrote in his book debuting 'the Big Club'  "If your system cannot get you to 3NT with a running 6-carder plus 3 aces,  revise that system!"   What I see here is close enough for me to  that kind of 3NT                             Three Notrump
Problem F:   I expect I will have to fight off  a heart rebid  from partner, so let's let him get that out of his system at the 3-level by bidding 3C now.  Then my 3NT may be left in peace.  It's not all rosy, though--imagine 3C  going swish, and dummy coming with a perfectly ordinary ...x, J9xxx, Axx, Axxx!  Down 1  in  7 clubs--ouch.                                              Three Clubs

« Last Edit: January 30, 2022, 06:21:01 AM by blubayou »
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blubayou

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Re: 2022 March MSC
« Reply #22 on: January 29, 2022, 11:17:09 PM »
Quote from: blubayou link=topic=556.msg4341#msg4341 date=164132785
[b
problem G:  I EXPECT that the #1 purpose for playing 3C or 3D or 3H as transfers is to be able to drop the 18-19 pt. hand in part score. (there are no WJS's to the3-level in BWS).  No doubt the other purpose is to offer choices among one or two other suits or Notrump for game or even slam (funny to think of slamming by a sub-opener facing 18 balanced,  but heyy!).[/b]
   If we accept this purpose #1,  are we willing to just accept the transfer and  be left in 3H?  If so then our answer in G is  "3H";  if not,  will the answer be 4H,  or something else  eg: 4Diamonds?
                                                     yes -->  Four diamonds


Problem H:  Play to shorten declarers trump that lurk over our partner's holding.  If they will be playing a full-on crossruff,  maybe having to start by club ruffs  will ruin the timing a little--or a whole lot.
                                                Club Ace
« Last Edit: January 30, 2022, 06:18:13 AM by blubayou »
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Masse24

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Re: 2022 March MSC
« Reply #23 on: January 29, 2022, 11:30:04 PM »
MARCH GUESSES:

PROBLEM A: 4 Clubs
PROBLEM B: 3 Notrump
PROBLEM C: 4 Diamonds
PROBLEM D: Pass
PROBLEM E: 3 Notrump
PROBLEM F: 3 Clubs
PROBLEM G: 4 Hearts
PROBLEM H: Club Ace



A: 4 !C. I know the panel is aggressive, so am a little concerned about 4 !D appealing to the panel. But I’m not going to bury partner for competing. So 4 !C.
B. 3NT. Whisper from Hamman.
C. 4 !D. Splinter now. Later, maybe spades. Fun hand.
[Added] - I'm concerned that the 3 !D jump-reverse will be the preferred splinter since 4 !D should really show a void. Might be a good choice for anyone who has not yet submitted.
D. Pass. Difficult choice. What could partner have? Opps do not have a heart fit, so I assume three hearts with partner. No direct seat double, so probably not four spades. Is partner 33(43)? Opener must then be approximately 4522? Partner should have at least three clubs. So we have a fit. But if it’s only 5-3, do I want to play it at the three level?
E. 3NT. WTP? Partner should have !C AKJxxx at a minimum for the jump in clubs. Staring at the queen in my hand means they run. Crossing fingers (hey, it works) partner has the red suits controlled.
F. 3 !C. Pass feels wrong. Hate the void. 3 !C is an underbid of sorts, but what else?
G. 4 !H. Have a ruffing value, so the jump is warranted. Playing in 3 !H is too risky to simply reply at the three level. Anything stronger (I did contemplate 4 !D) is unwarranted.
H. !C A. I also like the underlead of my !C AQxxx. Certainly the hero lead if partner has Kx. But I have no guts. I hate lead problems!
« Last Edit: January 30, 2022, 02:11:02 PM by Masse24 »
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ccr3

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Re: 2022 March MSC
« Reply #24 on: January 29, 2022, 11:30:33 PM »
​Your Solutions for the March 2022 Contest
-------------------
PROBLEM A: 4 Clubs   
PROBLEM B: 4 Hearts   
PROBLEM C: 2 Spades.
PROBLEM D: Pass         
PROBLEM E: Pass         
PROBLEM F: 3 Clubs     
PROBLEM G: 4 Hearts   
PROBLEM H: Heart 2     
                                   
                                   
                               
« Last Edit: January 30, 2022, 03:58:52 PM by ccr3 »

kenberg

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Re: 2022 March MSC
« Reply #25 on: January 30, 2022, 04:01:26 PM »
Probable choices
A: Pass
B: 3H
C: 2D
D: Pass
E: 3NT
F: 5C
G: 3H
H: Club A

Some  thoughts:

A: Pass. It's matchpoints. I think the probability of making a game is less than 50-50, I think the probability of taking five tricks against 3D is better than 50-50. One of the problems about going for game is that even if there is a making game somewhere it is far from clear that we can sort out where it is.

B: 3H Partner's balancing double is based on the assumption/hope that I have something. I have something, but not all that much more than something.

C: 2D This auction will be competitive. I am prepared to bid hearts at the 5 level if need be and I am thinking that bidding 4H and then, later, 5H doesn't do justice to this hand. There is a question of hat various bids mean. It seems to me that if the auction begins 1 !C - (1 !D) - X - (1 !S) then double by opener of the 1 !S should say "Had my Rho not come in here, I would have been pleased to bid 1 !S. Suppose I have, say, a 12 or 13 count and a decent four card spade suit. If that spade bid on my left is real, I don't really want to play in 2 !S and get a 5-0 trump split. It seems better to just have X show that 13 count with four spades. Partner will then cope.

D: Pass. What's up? First, who has four spades? Partner I think. With long !D and four !S I think E would have bid 1 !S rather than 1NT. W might have four !S but he has five !H so, while possibly he has four, my guess it is partner that does. Now what about the hearts? on this auction, with my three card !H holding, it seems pard must have at least three !H and my guess is four. I only have two !D. Maybe that have a bunch but if they do they will probably go on to 3 !D over my 3 !C, and if they don't have a lot of !D then pard has some, and that doesn't give him many clubs. I suppose he has three for his double, but that doesn't mean we should compete to 3 !C. my guess is his shape is 4=4=2=3 with modes values. I'm for letting them play 2 !D

E: 3NT Well, it's imps. Nobody vul but still it's 400 if it makes. At matchpoints I would pass. Probably less than a 50% shot of making.

F: 5 !C.  Again, what's going on. I have no hearts. I am betting pard has five or six. And so too weak to bid 2 !H. Probably at most one !S. We should have a minor suit fit and a play for 5m. I suppose I could be cautious and bid only 4 !C,  Maybe I will. I'll think about it.

G: 3 !H. How many hearts does that 3 !D bid show? No need to be sure just yet. I have three !H and if pard raises 3 !H to 4 !H maybe that's right even if he has only four. The opponents can cash a couple of clubs after which I could well have ten tricks. If over 3 !H pard bids 3NT I will assume he has only four hearts and thinks that unless I have four hearts we should give it a shot in 3NT.

H: The !C A. Declarer will be tossing some minors on his spades, I think we need to get all the minor suit tricks that we can and then we see what we get in hearts. I might think more about this also, but the !C A seems right.
« Last Edit: January 30, 2022, 04:15:18 PM by kenberg »
Ken

wackojack

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Re: 2022 March MSC
« Reply #26 on: January 30, 2022, 07:42:00 PM »
Problem B
Imps
North-South vulnerable
You, South, hold:
♠ Q J 3   ♥ A 8 7 2   ♦ J 7 4 3   ♣ Q 6
SOUTH   WEST   NORTH   EAST
——   ——   ——   3 ♦
Pass   Pass   Double   Pass
 ?         
Partner is fairly likely to have a singleton diamond giving west also a singleton ♦.  I can then see 4♥ making giving partner say ♠ K10xx, ♥KQxx, ♦x, ♣AJxx. OTOH if partner has made the take-out double with a doubleton say 4423 distribution then 3♥ is likely the limit and 3♦ is likely going off 1.  Since we are vul and the opps not  I will take the low road and go for 3♥.  If partner has 4414 distribution and say ♠Kxxx, ♥ KQxx, ♦ x, ♣ AKxx that she will raise to 4♥.








Problem C
Imps
Neither side vulnerable
You, South, hold:
♠ —   ♥ K 9 6 4 3   ♦ 7   ♣ A K J 10 6 5 3
SOUTH   WEST   NORTH   EAST
1 ♣   1 ♦   Double*   1 ♠
 ?         
*BWS: at least four-four in the majors
We need an exclusion keycard ask where ♠ are excluded.  I don’t think 4♠ would be taken as such.  I would love to bid  6♥ now and partner turns up with a perfectly ordinary ♠ 10xxx, ♥AQJx, ♦Ax, ♣ Qxx  so missing the grand

kenberg

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Re: 2022 March MSC
« Reply #27 on: January 31, 2022, 01:10:52 AM »
Ok, maybe I was too quick with G: 1 !S - 1NT - 2NT - 3 !D, and the note says BWS: hearts.
I took that to mean 4+ hearts.  But perhaps it means 5+ hearts. I looked at the BWS 2017 and I don't see it discussed.
Of course if he has 5 he wants to know if I have 2 or 3.
But we could play that if I have 2 I rebid 3NT so 3 !H promises 3.
I guess it depends on what 3 !C means. If 3 !C is Stayman then presumably that 3 !D call of his showed 5.

I prefer a nice simple system. After 1 !S - 1NT-2NT all calls are natural and forcing. But if we are playing something more exotic I would like a fuller explanation than "BWS: hearts."

I think I do not deny four hearts with 1 !S - 1NT - 2NT. 

This requires some thought. I am now thinking of bidding 4 !H. And then, after the hand, we can decide what "BWS: hearts" means for when it comes up again.
Ken

blubayou

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Re: 2022 March MSC
« Reply #28 on: January 31, 2022, 02:42:30 AM »
Hi, Ken:    As you consider, factor in that 3C, 3D AND 3 HEARTS[!?!]  are all transfers.. I KNOW  it's in print where it ought to be--because seeing it astonished me.   So  3D  is a TRANSFER,  not a check-back for 4 --or even three-- hearts.   If you don't buy my ranting that her intention MAY be to bail in a  (6/7-2 fit) partial,  then  via con Dios, compadre,  but this is not a gadget letting us get away  with  raising the 5-11 1NT to two  when  5=4 in the majors
   Bulletin  BWS section G--about halfway down : " One of a major — one notrump — two notrump is invitational; responder's continuation of three of a suit other than opener's is a transfer." 
This appears to include     "1 !H  , 1NT; 2NT, 3 !S " -- Can hardly wait for a  quiz question  using that little bugger!
« Last Edit: January 31, 2022, 07:27:13 AM by blubayou »
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blubayou

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Re: 2022 March MSC
« Reply #29 on: January 31, 2022, 08:47:33 AM »
My WINNING VOTES from Hell list..
A:  Their 'Action Two'  is a 6-4 thing of beauty [would make]  AND north does have 9 major cards  "3 !H "=100
B:  Opps'  !D s are 7-2  with K9 in dummy, so they pick off my 'stopper' and make. 3 !H also makes "3 !H "=100
C: Do NOT know what winning vote would be a horror, But WackoJack did find a layout where we're sacrificing over their Spade slam.  I guess, for me, having the panel accept(let alone like) 2 !S  as a cue is horror  "2 !S " =80
D: We do have 11+14 HCP but no 3NT or 5 !C  Both side's minors are decent fits so 3 !D -100 looses to 3 !C 130
E:      ..................No horror result on this one  3NT is ice,  and the panel knows it.   .........                 3NT=100
F: Jumping in clubs leads to slam.  Arranging to get to 3NT by any route gets no respect from panel      4 !C =100
G: Obeying orders wins over superaccept or anything else one thinks of--A horror thought for me          3 !H =100
H: opp's 4 !D  is declared an attempted swindle--to get some fool to open up clubs.  WTG, Zia!             !D 10=100


SOLUTIONS FOR: Jock McQuade 3 Bag End Hobbiton The Shire
PROBLEM A: Pass              PROBLEM B: Pass      PROBLEM C: 4 Hearts        PROBLEM D: Double 

PROBLEM E: 3 Notrump  PROBLEM F: 4 Clubs PROBLEM G: 4 Diamonds PROBLEM H: Club Ace
« Last Edit: January 31, 2022, 11:36:27 PM by blubayou »
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