3rd in hand pre-empt

[wackojack]

 I gave this hand in yesterday's work-out
 
                J105
                  765
                  10632
                  Q76
  AK5                        9743
  A42                        9
  Q5                          KJ87
  AK1052                    9843

                  Q82
                  KQJ1083
                  A94
                  J
Dealer was North at love all.  The bidding went: pass -pass-3 - 3NT- all pass.  3NT looks like a reasonable bid but had no chance.  Whereas 5  is an excellent contract and makes.

South's 3 pre-empt did the damage.  Has South opened the more normal 1 opener the bidding might have gone like in the viewgraph match that I was watching:
pass- (pass) - 1 - (dbl);
pass - (1 ) - 2  - (dbl);
pass - (3 ) - 3 - (5 );
all pass
 
5 was an easy make.

It got me thinking "Is there a case for opening this 13 HCP hand  witth a pre-emptive 3 ?  It looks like the main danger is missing game for NS.  Give North instead a 10 count say  J10x,  765,  KQ32,  A76  then 4 would be missed. How likely is this?  The points to be shared in the 3 hands is 27, and the median share would be 9 in each hand.  So if I now take away the J  from the North hand it reduces to 9 which is the median.  I conclude that the chances of game being on from East's POV would be less than 50% but not much. 

This leads me to having a rule of thumb as to what is the maximum strength for a 3rd in hand pre-empt to make it an overrall winner? 

Usually 3 level pre-empts are made on 7 card suits .  I believe there is a very good case for opening in 3rd nv on a 6 card suit, but how strong?  Take away Q ( a possible defefensive trick) and I think the case for opening 3  is very strong, but with the hand as it is perhaps just do it if you are behind and need a swing to win a match.     
 

[kenberg]

The S hand needs another card, the heart T.

I sometimes do the following when looking at the "what might have beens", Interchange the N and the E hands. The auction would have begun the same. What happens then?

                  9743
                  9
                  KJ87
                  9843
  AK5                        JT5
  A42                        765
  Q5                          10632
  AK1052                     Q76

                  Q82
                  KQJT83
                  A94
                  J

 In the new layout pard has a stiff heart but they split 3-3. Pard has the diamond K so we have two diamond tricks, but presumably, we can draw trump before we have to tackle diamonds, and the Qx is onside, so we get three D tricks. So it looks like 0+5+3+0=8 tricks, off 1. If the opponents play in NT, they can take 9 tricls when the spade finesse works. A bit lucky but it works. Of course opening 3H might not stop them from bidding 3NT. That is a 20 count with W.

Obviously just switching the N and E hands does not count as a conclusive analysis, but it's easy to do and provides something to think about. With the hands as they were actually dealt, 3NT is hopeless but 5C makes. In the switched hands 3NT makes but it appears that you lose two diamonds and at least one heart playing in clubs.

So bridge is an interesting game!

I think there is something to be said for a third hand opening of 3H although it might be just a tad too strong for my tastes. It's a very nice six card suit.