Author Topic: Sept 2021 MSC  (Read 1282 times)

Masse24

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Sept 2021 MSC
« on: July 04, 2021, 11:20:13 PM »
SEPTEMBER 2021 MSC

Deadline: July 31 at 11:59 p.m. (ET)

Submit your SEPTEMBER MSC responses here: The Bridge World - MASTER SOLVERS CLUB

BWS 2017 System: BWS 2017
BWS 2017 POLLS, CHANGES AND ADDITIONS: BWS 2017 - Polls, Changes, and Additions
  • Bridge World Standard 2017 (BWS or BWS2017) is effective beginning with the January 2017 Master Solvers' Club problems. This page shows (1) the results of the panelist polls that were used to adjust the system; and (2) the changes in and the additions to Bridge World Standard 2001 (BWS2001) that were made.
    In the listings of the questions and answers, an asterisk indicates the BWS2001 agreement; the proportion of the expert votes for each item, rounded to the nearest percent, is shown in brackets.


IAC Forum MSC Scores


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« Last Edit: August 29, 2021, 11:26:52 PM by Masse24 »
“Kindness is the only service that will stand the storm of life and not wash out. It will wear well and will be remembered long after the prism of politeness or the complexion of courtesy has faded away.” Abraham Lincoln

blubayou

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Re: Sept 2021 MSC
« Reply #1 on: July 04, 2021, 11:56:47 PM »
problem A:  BWS2017  includes the  fancy GSF replies  that can  show either the king or ace,  and either of those plus the trump JACK.  Look it up.   Decide if you want to go the limit with  4-4 trumps missing the jack or not.   it would be chicken to avoid seven  if we learn he has  both the king and jack.   The almost-extinct Grand Slam Force is the way to go here.  Hopefully,  if he has  cuebid  a second round diamond control,  he will  lie by one level  when responding to  our 5NT?


problem B:  I think I want to be dummy  for whatever we end up in (4NT, 6NT, 6C, ??? )  so  first guess is 2 Hearts now.  I can smell the spade lead through pard's doubleton ace as a good start for out opponents, so I really  would prefer  the spade attack[to come through my  JT8 up to pard's Ax(x)!



problem C:  'Double" we can handle, IF there is more bidding. Might be a bottom if it goes "all pass" though.  IF not doubling, we must jump in hearts though, as  "2H" guarantees a trash opener in my book.  Hmmm.


problem D:  The opps MUST have Law protection for competing to 3 Diamonds.  But will they exercise this fact, or leave me to rot in the cute 3 Club call?  When pard shows up with KTxx,  Axx, Jxx, Axx,  will he say "WDP-- we bluffed them out of 4 diamonds (hearts) down one", or something else?



The last four have no charm for me. Not that they don't have the traditional 2-3 choices--just that there seems no  'manifesto-type' position to take--just some coin-flipping. [size=78%] :( :(
E:>>  2 !S , 3 !S , and 3 !C  must all get some votes;  my wife liked 4 !S !
F:>>  Same for  5 !C , 4NT, and Double(?!?)
G:>>  Wish I could get serious about rebids other than 4 !S ,  really I do, but.. 
H:>>  Anything but from the club AQxxx.  sigh[/size]
« Last Edit: July 14, 2021, 01:52:36 AM by blubayou »
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Masse24

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Re: Sept 2021 MSC
« Reply #2 on: July 05, 2021, 12:58:06 AM »
Problem A: 5 !C

Showing the void.
“Kindness is the only service that will stand the storm of life and not wash out. It will wear well and will be remembered long after the prism of politeness or the complexion of courtesy has faded away.” Abraham Lincoln

peuco

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Re: Sept 2021 MSC
« Reply #3 on: July 16, 2021, 06:06:45 PM »
A. 5NT, the problem is not so much the S J but if the S with the K is 5th or longer. I wuld rather do not play 7 opposite KJxx because 4-1 split wuld make it a poor contract unless pd has three winners in D and C

peuco

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Re: Sept 2021 MSC
« Reply #4 on: July 16, 2021, 06:21:54 PM »
B. 2NT i want to rebid 4NT over a 3NT bid by my pd. If after a 2H rebid he raises to 3H will he have 3 or 2 ? after the raise 4NT would be read as quantitative? i use the major rebid when i have a xx doubleton

peuco

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Re: Sept 2021 MSC
« Reply #5 on: July 16, 2021, 06:46:51 PM »
Agree 100% with Blu´s observations, my choices:

C. X
D. 3S rather than 3C
E. 3C
F. 4NT
G. 2H  slam is quite possible, where?
H. S 10

jcreech

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Re: Sept 2021 MSC
« Reply #6 on: July 18, 2021, 12:33:19 PM »
My initial thoughts:

Problem A:  4 !H  I'm inclined to take the last train (and hint), and then follow-up with a club cue over 4 !S.  Partner has already said that the will is there, now we are exploring whether we are bidding 6 or 7.

Problem B:  2 NT  I have the extras to go slow and show shape.  I wish the spades were a bit better, but let's see where partner heads next.

Problem C:  3 !H  I think this shows at least 5-5 with extras.

Problem D:  3 !C  I have length, an uncertain !H K, and partner may be 4-3 in the majors for the double.  Let's show competitiveness, and if the opponents continue to bid hearts, I will now show spades to show four, but with longer clubs.

Problem E:  3 !C  I need to make a forcing bid, and what better than to show a concentration of values.  I think KQJx qualifies.

Problem F:  4 NT  I think this emphasizes the minors, and since I did not use a responsive double before, suggests that the clubs are at least 6.

Problem G:  2 !H  The nebulous cue-bid seems best here - we could have game in either pointed suit, or even a diamond slam.  Let's get the party started!

Problem H: !S 10  May as well pickle partner than myself.  Let declarer find out about the bad trump break on his own.
A stairway to nowhere is better than no stairway at all.  -Kehlog Albran

kenberg

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Re: Sept 2021 MSC
« Reply #7 on: July 18, 2021, 06:41:50 PM »
Problem A leads to a question about BWS 2017. I quote:

"Exclusion Blackwood: When a call is defined as Exclusion Blackwood (EB), the replies are in steps similar to Key-Card Blackwood, but the replier does not count the ace of an excluded suit. The EB interpretation applies to certain jumps that name an excluded suit, and also when a player makes a slam-try, indicates a short suit, receives no encouragement, and then bids four notrump (in which case the indicated short suit is an excluded suit)."

Suppose. on the auction 1H-1S=4C-4D, I now bid 5C.

The paragraph lists two cases for understanding a call to be Exclusion:
The second one: "also when a player makes a slam-try, indicates a short suit, receives no encouragement, and then bids four notrump (in which case the indicated short suit is an excluded suit"
That clearly doesn't apply because it requires that I receive no encouragement and the 4D is encouragement.
Ok, how about the first one? " The EB interpretation applies to certain jumps that name an excluded suit "
Well, 5C over 4D is not a jump. But I did jump to 4C. Are they saying that because the 4C was a shortness showing bid hoping for slam that now 5C would be exclusion?
That interpretation sounds reasonable to me and would be useful here.

It's not certain that 7S is a make if partner has Kxxx in spades and the A of diamonds, but surely I want to stay out of 7 if he does not have that.

Suppose I bid 7S, the opponents lead a club, I rough. Lacking the spade J I do what? If spades are 3-2 I could draw trump but then I have four spade tricks, one rough, the diamond A, that comes to 6 tricks and I hopefully have 6 ore heart tricks. That's only 12.
So I could, at T2, come to hand with the D A and ruff a second club. and then what? If pard has the spade J I can play A of spades, overtake the Q of spades, hope for a 3-2 split, and hope hearts behave. That's a lot of hoping
Of course they might lead a trump against 7S. Maybe that would help pard get two ruffs. Maybe. T from board, J from Rho, K from declarer  , maybe pard  was dealt K98x, 

Does partner need more that KJxx in spades and the diamond A to bid 4D over 4C? I don't think so.  Of course he might well have more. It would be nice to bring him into the decision making prcess but how? He might not realize that Tx in hearts would be very useful.

But first things first. After my 4C splinter and the encouraging 4D, is 5C an exclusion key card ask? Seems reasonable. 4NT asks for keys, and 5C asks for keys outside of clubs.
I don't much play exclusion, mostly because it takes more when is it on/off discussion than I have given it.  But can't avoid thinking about it here. Good morning exclusion, are you on today?

Hmm. I am starting to think 4H over 4D is right. Partner knows better than I do whether he has some extras, and if so he can bid 4NT and I can show my 2 keys and a void.

« Last Edit: July 18, 2021, 07:07:02 PM by kenberg »
Ken

blubayou

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Re: Sept 2021 MSC
« Reply #8 on: July 18, 2021, 11:15:49 PM »
on PROBLEM A!   Todd,  Jim, and especially Ken  have convinced me solidly  that the handling charge on getting 13 tricks if pard has KJxx trumps plus the diamond ace, and not more will be fatal. Peuco, too mentioned this, though to date  he has his vote in with me for the GSF 5NT.   I will probably back off by crunch time  to "last-train 4 !H , then confirm spliter is a void,  then raise unwilling partner to a mere small slam  :(
  Ken!  you wraskal  to bring up the 10-x of  Hearts possibility.  we must get colin to teach us how to cue-bid a key ten-doubleton!.................love,love,love this font; Next month and onward i will make it my default!
« Last Edit: July 22, 2021, 10:56:11 PM by blubayou »
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jcreech

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Re: Sept 2021 MSC
« Reply #9 on: July 19, 2021, 12:55:58 AM »
Jock, I was happy to see you moving toward slowing down the auction a bit.  You have to remember that partner has only made a simple response and cooperated with a slam try.  North has not promised the World's Fair - I think it is reasonable to assume Kxxxx or KJxx in spades and the ace of diamonds, but for slam, I may still need more cover cards, alternatively, some diamond shortness.  Besides, what is the GSF going to do for you?  It is impossible for North to have two - so there will never be a 7 !S bid; with one, 6 !S is the obvious bid; but what if you have none?  Now you have to guess whether to bid 6 !S or try passing the 5 NT - after all, partner could be looking at any one of the A, K, or Q, and 5 NT with Axx opposite a void is likely to be down lots, where 6 !S might still have a play unless both the A and K are missing.

While I am assuming that partner has at least the trump K for the cooperation, it does not have to be so.  If partner signs off after I show the club void, then I accept and hope that partner is right.
A stairway to nowhere is better than no stairway at all.  -Kehlog Albran

kenberg

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Re: Sept 2021 MSC
« Reply #10 on: July 19, 2021, 01:16:24 PM »
I am still wondering if 5C would be an exclusion key card ask.
It seems like it could be. That way, after 4D, I can ask for keys w/o exclusion with 4NT and I can ask for keys with exclusion by bidding 5C.

As mentioned, I do not generally play exclusion. It does not arise that often and it seems as if there are several situations where reasonable people might disagree on whether it is on or off. I do not find the BWS write-up all that clear (on many items including this one).

I have pretty much decided on 4H, regardless of what 5C might mean. But I still wonder what 5C does mean.
Ken

peuco

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Re: Sept 2021 MSC
« Reply #11 on: July 21, 2021, 07:59:34 PM »
SOLUTIONS FOR:
Francisco Lizana

PROBLEM A: 5 Notrump
PROBLEM B: 2 Notrump
PROBLEM C: Double
PROBLEM D: 3 Spades
PROBLEM E: 3 Clubs
PROBLEM F: 4 Notrump
PROBLEM G: 2 Hearts
PROBLEM H: Spade 10

wackojack

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Re: Sept 2021 MSC
« Reply #12 on: July 23, 2021, 03:24:12 PM »
Problem A
This was my first thought:
Simple!  If partner has A♦ and K♠ then 13 tricks looks almost certain.  So I bid 5♣ “exclusion”  Then Ken and Blu spread doubts that 5♣ was “Exclusion”  And that 7♠ would not be a good contract if partner had only ♠Kxxx and ♦Axx.  My simple logic was that if partner has ♠Kxxx and ♦Axx, then we have 11 top tricks and 2 ♣ ruffs in hand to make 13.  Then Ken pointed out that you could not get back to dummy to draw trumps without overtaking. So 2 questions to consider:

Is 5 !C to be taken as exclusion key card?  
I don't believe the experts will treat BWS like a legal document.  I believe they will take it that if it looks like exclusion and could not be anything else but exclusion then it is exclusion. 

What do we need partner to have to make the grand a good contract assuming partner bids 5 !S showing K !S and A ! !D?

1. Give partner A !D and  !SKJxx, then the grand has about a 60% chance.   Combining (!S 3-2 68%,  !H 5-1 or 6-0 16%)
2. Give partner  5 spades !SKxxxx.  then the grand has about a 50% chance.
3. Give partner AK !D and  !S Kxxx, then the grand has about a 70% chance of making.

If after partner bids 5 !S we bid 5NT, this asks partner to bid Kings. Then:
If partner bids 6 !D showing the K !D we have enough to bid the grand. 
If partner bids 6  !S, another question arises. It is:
When partner responds 1 !S to 1 !H what are the odds of it being a 5 card suit?
I don't the answer but imagine it to be about a 2 in 3 chance.  So not good enough.

The Case for bidding a last train 4 !H

 It enable us to play in 4 !S if partner signs off there. 

However, can partner really have all useless points like  !S xxxx,  !Hxx,  !D QJx,  !CKxxx?  We would be really unlucky if he did.
 
So I vote for 5 !C exclusion.  If partner shows zero or 1 then we stop in 5 !S. If 2 then I bid 5NT and only bid the grand if partner shows the K !D.

kenberg

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Re: Sept 2021 MSC
« Reply #13 on: July 23, 2021, 04:05:27 PM »
A: If I bid 4H and pard bids 4S, I do not have to pass. I can bid 5C.
After 4H, which could be just a general try, if I now bid 5C I think that says something about the 4H as well. It has to be something like: I heard you when you bid the passable 4S but really I am now saying that I have H control and C control and a good hand. I need something, but I need very little for 6S to be right. Or, for that matter, I could just blast to 6S over the 4S sign-off. The message would be: I was hoping to go on to 7, but after your discouraging 4S I will settle for 6.

I am not so sure of the logic that " if it looks like exclusion and could not be anything else but exclusion then it is exclusion" so an immediate 5C over 4D must be exclusion.
I quote Larry Cohen on exclusion:
"I wouldn't recommend this convention to anyone other than a full-time expert with a full-time regular partner."
Similar views are expressed elsewhere. .
I think it makes sense to agree that it is exclusion. And I think it is reasonable to think it could be exclusion. But I am far from certain that it is exclusion unless there is a specific agreement.


It seems 6S is highly likely but 7S is iffy but worth exploring. But how to explore. Good question, Ken!
I omagoine when the next issue of BW arrices we will see. It would not amaze me if Expert X says of course it is exclusion and Expert Y says of course it is not exclusion.
Ken

hoki

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Re: Sept 2021 MSC
« Reply #14 on: July 24, 2021, 05:43:43 AM »
A   5♣, but can live with 4
B   2NT, the problem comes next round
C   2 – double risks missing a 5-3 heart fit
D   3 – but at the table I’d probably bid an impulsive 5♣
E   3♠ – it’s where my hand lives and if it’s a misfit this is high enough
F   5♣ – the suit disparity speaks against 4NT
G   4♠ – I don’t expect pard to be void in spades when competing in a minor
H   ♠10