Author Topic: 2021 July MSC  (Read 10159 times)

jcreech

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Re: 2021 July MSC
« Reply #45 on: June 19, 2021, 11:56:49 PM »
Right after posting the last of the summaries, there was a flurry of discussion on the August  poll.  I am just bringing attention back here, in case there are those who were interested, but did not know the summaries had been posted.  Look on page 3 for the summaries.
A stairway to nowhere is better than no stairway at all.  -Kehlog Albran

blubayou

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Re: 2021 July MSC
« Reply #46 on: June 20, 2021, 02:16:21 AM »
We cant IMAGINE any participant missing the summaries,  but a good P.R. move anyway, Jim!


A rehash on the lead problem:  22  of the 27(28) panelists commented,  and only TWO of the many in the "pass/give diamond-ruff"  majority expected partner to also provide the setting trick as well (Steve Garner & Gary Cohler)  All the others considered it just a hope, and a possibly forlorn one, eg:
[ZIA: "The double says he's ruffing something, not promising to beat the contract. I hope he has a plan"]

Add those approx  15 or 16 doubters  to the 5 more who voted with their feet (7 !C !)  and  I read this  as a 5 to 1 landslide for the position that somebody with a Lightner Double "Just does it--let the chips fall where they may regarding the SETTING tricks"


One other set-up  I don't think the IAC even mentioned  is the idea that dummy has a huge 7-4-?-? in the majors  and our pard has 11 minor cards and 0=2 majors.  At least 3 panelists found that less unbelievable than my belief that pard has 2 hearts and 11 black cards.  But the moderator gently stomped on this being the case, noting that if he did have such, he would bail out to 6 spades "in a New York minute", rather than play victim to the Lightner.  (Unless he had SUCH a moose that he was confident of the remaining 12 tricks, hey?)

« Last Edit: July 08, 2021, 06:54:45 AM by blubayou »
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jcreech

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Re: 2021 July MSC
« Reply #47 on: June 20, 2021, 05:28:14 PM »
Jock,

My thinking has always been that for a person to make a Lightner double, there should be something rational about the decision.  Earlier, I viewed it as either a certainty or near certainty of a set, and this was largely because of the rarity of the situation.  More recently, I've reconsidered and brought it more in line with other types of decision that I make more frequently.

If the double is in a strong auction, then the doubler should be looking at two probable tricks - the ruff plus a hopefully cashing ace or a positional king.  This is because the defense does not have the values for developmental tricks - say a QJx.  On a more distributionally-based auction, where the defense also has values, it could be based more on speculation - a ruff and hopefully a second trick.  So then what percentage of certainty should you need to think there is a second trick in order to double to ensure the first?  It probably should be roughly the same risk-reward calculation you make when deciding whether to bid a close game or slam (though you should consider the chance that the opponents will redouble and make it stick too or can run to a contract that is cold).

Another consideration is whether your teammates are likely to bid the slam.  The less likely they are to bid the slam, and a Lightner double will give the defense a chance to set the contract when it would otherwise be a certainty to make, then the Lightner double should be automatic.  The loss of few IMPs for the chance to save 10 or more make the calculation easy.
A stairway to nowhere is better than no stairway at all.  -Kehlog Albran

Masse24

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Re: 2021 July MSC
« Reply #48 on: June 21, 2021, 11:16:59 PM »
In other words, it depends on the auction;) ;D

EDIT: Font adjusted to convey sarcasm.
« Last Edit: June 21, 2021, 11:42:52 PM by Masse24 »
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jcreech

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Re: 2021 July MSC
« Reply #49 on: June 23, 2021, 06:23:51 PM »
Richard Pavlicek on Bridge Winners:  There's a simple solution to these issues, Reverse Lightner:  Pass demands an unusual lead. Double says "Make your normal lead; there's no way we're beating this."

S.J. Simon said in Why You Lose At Bridge (paraphrased) that the greatest benefit of a Lightner double is that it kept people from doubling with two aces that weren't cashing!
A stairway to nowhere is better than no stairway at all.  -Kehlog Albran