Author Topic: 2021 July MSC  (Read 10156 times)

blubayou

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Re: 2021 July MSC
« Reply #15 on: May 25, 2021, 10:58:35 PM »
Fnal choices,  July 2021:
PROBLEM A:>>  I am cuebidding for the contest's 100.  The ugly truth is I am in spade game already whether partner rebids spades, diamonds notrump  or [impossibly] clubs.  Don't tell the BW this.
                                                                             3  !H

PROBLEM B:>>  Still DOUBLE, then run from hearts to spades when the time comes.
                                                                            DOUBLE

PROBLEM C:>>  First, but not crucially, there are hands partner may have that cannot pass semi-forcing 1NT yet do NOT have four of them...AKxxx, xxx,  AKx,  xx for example,  and for my pairs  you can throw in a spade or diamond jack.  But our original thought to give the 6-9 preff to his major is history.   There is the theory that opener ALWAYS passes this "unless he forgot to jump-shift",  so  we are sticking with the overbid of...                                                                                   2NT

PROBLEM D:>>  Call my lead through  doubler's club queen (hope,hope,HOPE)  and fold our tent.
                                                                               3 !C

PROBLEM E:>>  Coming in my major, but more frightened of the overbid than on Day-one :-\
                                                                                3 !S  

PROBLEM F:>>         --------------------------->       3NT


PROBLEM G:>>  As much as I would like to get to the par spot NOW  (  seven hearts),  I see we must call our lead, as partner may well be lost about which is OUR minor, and which is THEIR minor.  I am doing this at the slam level--not at five, which will make me the odd man out for either suit, or level.  so be it.  And don't ask me if I will believe them when one of them takes our dare  and bids six spades.  They didn't ask for a part two answer.               
                                                                           6 !D          

PROBLEM H:>>  Everybody is on board with the idea that pard is 3=2=0=8  and opps are 4-4 in both majors and 5-4 one way or the other in diamonds--right?  e-mail a different idea of these shapes if you imagine one  [MANDYBRO888@GMAIL.COM] .  That said,  I give up on the idea they 'must' take the rest after pard ruffs trick one.  Whether he promised the setting trick or not, let's play him for at least Qxx in spades along with his J [eight times] of clubs.  even just the queen  may be behind gonzo dummy's  AK?x                                                                        pass/ !D 3


bulletin:  one worthy contributor posited  via BBO-chat that East has five hearts, rather than the 4=4=4=1  that I am sure he has, (not willing to give HIM the club void after WEST plopps him in slam).  This would make the big hand shaped 4=3=6=0  or 5=3=5=0. All this assumes that our partner does not have zero diamonds and only ONE heart.  I don't know what to think about this disturbing idea, having already voted that pard's hypothetical spade king or queen will come home for our SETTING trick after the diamond ruff ruins my decent natural stopper in that suit,  but if  hearts ARE  5-3  and therefore diamonds  3-6 [or 4-5 while spades be 3-5] then  his big spade honor will never score given the 2 or 3 diamond dumps this nightmare scenario makes available.   Over-ruling the Lightner Double (by running to 7C) is looking better and better, if we can believe the opps' hands are not "mirrored"  as in my construction:(.


SOLUTIONS FOR: Jock McQuade, 3 Bag End, Hobbiton OR 97030U.S.A.
PROBLEM A: 3 Hearts
PROBLEM B: Double
PROBLEM C: 2 Notrump
PROBLEM D: 3 Clubs
PROBLEM E: 3 Spades
PROBLEM F: 3 Notrump
PROBLEM G: 6 Diamonds
PROBLEM H: Pass | Diamond 3
« Last Edit: May 31, 2021, 02:37:07 AM by blubayou »
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peuco

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Re: 2021 July MSC
« Reply #16 on: May 26, 2021, 09:09:38 PM »
SOLUTIONS FOR:


PROBLEM A: 2 Spades
PROBLEM B: Double
PROBLEM C: 3 Diamonds
PROBLEM D: 3 Clubs
PROBLEM E: 3 Spades
PROBLEM F: 3 Notrump
PROBLEM G: 5 Diamonds
PROBLEM H: Pass | Diamond 3

msphola

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Re: 2021 July MSC
« Reply #17 on: May 28, 2021, 01:27:59 PM »
July MSC
A. 2S
B. 2C
C. 2N
D. 3D
E. 3S
F. 4S
G. 5H
H. 7C

wackojack

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Re: 2021 July MSC
« Reply #18 on: May 29, 2021, 11:04:53 AM »
A   2♠. 
If partner has something like ♠AQxx, ♥xxx, ♦KQxx, ♣xx and decided to pass, she will now make a game try. 

B   Pass
The choice is between 1♠ and pass.  Double is out with only a ♥ doubleton.  I go for pass, fancying that +100 is more likely than +90.

C   3♦
Since we are not playing Gazzilli I have to raise to 3♦.  This is much better than 2♠ because it will encourage partner to bid on with 16.

D   3♣
   The opps are likely to bid the contract in hearts and so 3♣ is a good lead director.

E   3♠
   With this hand, passing is riskier than bidding.

F   3♦
This is really tough:
3♦?  This bid is NOT necessarily asking for a ♦ stop it is saying “Please tell me more?”  However, if partner bids 4♣, it pretty certainly means that partner does not have a ♦ stop and so we bid 4♠.  This is ok if we think it will play better in 4♠ than 3NT.  OK give partner ♠Q10xx, ♥xx, ♦10x, ♣AKQxx and 4♠ gives us a better score than 3N.  Remember this is MP scoring.

G   5♦
This tells partner that I have some top diamonds with my ♥ support.  So, if the opponents bid to 5♠ or 6♣, then she is in the best position to judge whether to make a forcing pass, bid on to 6♥ or double.

H   Pass and lead 3♦   
This looks very unusual.  It is not possible for partner to be void in ♦ or ♠.  With a void in ♦s this would give partner an impossible 5107 distribution.   With a void in ♠ this would give partner a 0157 distribution.  Possible I suppose.  So it could be that partner has opened 3♣ with a 6 card suit and an outside ace? Would it be possible for partner to have opened with a 0157 distribution?  It is unlikley that partner would gamble on the opps 2 clubs dividing 1-1. 
So, the question is which Ace?  If A♦ then it is possible that on a ♠ lead the losing ♦ can be discarded.  If A♠ it is less likely that this can be discarded on winning ♦s.  So lead the 3♦ and hope that ♣s do not split 3-0. 

yleexotee

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Re: 2021 July MSC
« Reply #19 on: May 29, 2021, 11:05:08 PM »
PROBLEM A: 2 Spades
PROBLEM B: 1 Spade
PROBLEM C: 3 Diamonds
PROBLEM D: 3 Clubs
PROBLEM E: 3 Spades
PROBLEM F: 3 Notrump
PROBLEM G: 6 Hearts
PROBLEM H: Pass | Diamond 3

Some of these against my better judgment, but playing the MSC game!

bAbsG

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Re: 2021 July MSC
« Reply #20 on: May 30, 2021, 06:56:50 PM »
Your solutions have been received. This copy is for your records.

SOLVER: Babs Giesbrecht
       

Your Solutions for the July 2021 Contest 
-------------------
PROBLEM A: 2 Spades
PROBLEM B: 1 Spade
PROBLEM C: 2 Spades
PROBLEM D: 2 Spades
PROBLEM E: 3 Spades
PROBLEM F: 4 Spades
PROBLEM G: 5 Diamonds
PROBLEM H: Pass | Diamond 3

DickHy

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Re: 2021 July MSC
« Reply #21 on: May 30, 2021, 09:58:03 PM »
Problem H.  Aside from technical points, don't partnership cohesion and trust play an important part?  At the table, if partner said he could see setting tricks, I would pass immediately and think what to lead.  Bidding 7 !C would undermine trust.  If partner turned out to be wrong, well ... I make tons of mistakes.  It will be interesting to see if professionals think that way!

Masse24

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Re: 2021 July MSC
« Reply #22 on: May 30, 2021, 11:13:56 PM »
Problem H.  Aside from technical points, don't partnership cohesion and trust play an important part?  At the table, if partner said he could see setting tricks, I would pass immediately and think what to lead.  Bidding 7 !C would undermine trust.  If partner turned out to be wrong, well ... I make tons of mistakes.  It will be interesting to see if professionals think that way!

Right. I was just discussing this with Pat.

While I have been able to construct hands that fit the auction where they make slam and also go down in slam, I'm not sure that is the question we should be asking. Instead, rather than a trees question (who has what for their bids), try to see the forest, the big picture questions such as partnership trust. I'll bet at least a couple of panelists do so. Rubens? Kleinman? Stewart?

Another one that Jim and Blu touched on was, does partner promise a second trick for the double? We all know partner has a !D void. At least, that seems to be what he is asking to be led. THAT is another question the panelists will surely kick back and forth.

At the table, this is an auto-pass and !D lead for me. For the partnership trust question that you raise, Dick. But this is the MSC.  :-\

Sigh . . . 
“Kindness is the only service that will stand the storm of life and not wash out. It will wear well and will be remembered long after the prism of politeness or the complexion of courtesy has faded away.” Abraham Lincoln

blubayou

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Re: 2021 July MSC
« Reply #23 on: May 31, 2021, 02:50:13 AM »
none of us have drilled down on the IMP loss-vs. gain ratios  on this slam double that might go south  "lead  problem"
 It strikes me as lazy to assume pard has ato p spade that will score later  , or even the  !S Q  that should stand up given my "MUST BE"  distribution of all the suits:(...3=2=0=8 with opps 4=4=5=0 and 4=4=4=1)
  I firmly believe the opps MuST be  [dummy 4=4=5=0, and  "declarer" 4=4=4=1!!!  (SO, even pard's spade QUEEN  will win trick 13---though she ma not have that ], or better) 
« Last Edit: May 31, 2021, 01:39:40 PM by blubayou »
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jcreech

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Re: 2021 July MSC
« Reply #24 on: May 31, 2021, 03:33:46 AM »
I have recently faced the decision of running following a Lightner double, and made the wrong choice.  It was different than this - running from a suit to NT to shift the declarer.  The choice made was wrong because it took us from the slam that makes on any lead, to one that goes down on any of 10 cards, but luckily for us, the leader chose one of the three cards that let the slam make.  But it reminded me that the doubler is not always right, even when partner finds the suit they want led.  So in conclusion, either choice may be right.  I know where I stood a few weeks ago; I am still uncertain where I will stand in a few hours, when I lock down my selections.  GLTA.
A stairway to nowhere is better than no stairway at all.  -Kehlog Albran

Masse24

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Re: 2021 July MSC
« Reply #25 on: May 31, 2021, 12:40:58 PM »
We may as well beat this dead horse a bit more. There's time.

Speaking of shifting, Jim. Nobody has mentioned the other possible contract of 7 !D. Does it make? Maybe. Certainly, the !D finesse is now marked.

Is it secure enough for West to bid? Unknown. But is a pass now (rather than pull to 7 !C) more likely to push them into a making 7 !D? Or is it folly to consider?
« Last Edit: May 31, 2021, 03:46:25 PM by Masse24 »
“Kindness is the only service that will stand the storm of life and not wash out. It will wear well and will be remembered long after the prism of politeness or the complexion of courtesy has faded away.” Abraham Lincoln

DrAculea

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Re: 2021 July MSC
« Reply #26 on: May 31, 2021, 02:38:21 PM »
Wladislaus Dragwlya
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PROBLEM A: 2 Spades
PROBLEM B: Double
PROBLEM C: 2 Spades
PROBLEM D: 3 Notrump
PROBLEM E: Double
PROBLEM F: 3 Diamonds
PROBLEM G: 4 Spades
PROBLEM H: Pass | Club King

jcreech

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Re: 2021 July MSC
« Reply #27 on: May 31, 2021, 05:16:54 PM »
We may as well beat this dead horse a bit more. There's time.

Speaking of shifting, Jim. Nobody has mentioned the other possible contract of 7 !D. Does it make? Maybe. Certainly, the !D finesse is now marked.

Is it secure enough for West to bid? Unknown. But is a pass now (rather than pull to 7 !C) more likely to push them into a making 7 !D? Or is it folly to consider?

If 7 !D is such a great contract, won't they run to it over the Lightner double?
« Last Edit: May 31, 2021, 05:25:34 PM by jcreech »
A stairway to nowhere is better than no stairway at all.  -Kehlog Albran

Masse24

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Re: 2021 July MSC
« Reply #28 on: May 31, 2021, 07:41:12 PM »
I thought I asked that.  :P
“Kindness is the only service that will stand the storm of life and not wash out. It will wear well and will be remembered long after the prism of politeness or the complexion of courtesy has faded away.” Abraham Lincoln

kenberg

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Re: 2021 July MSC
« Reply #29 on: May 31, 2021, 08:07:31 PM »
How does that song go?
I'll be bidding before the morning
Spruced up and looking in me prime


A. 2S
Maybe an underbid, but the HK is not a trick.

B. Pass
Let well enough alone

C. 3D
I'm a passed hand, pard might have passed 1NT, 3D should be ok

D. 2S
I suppose that we will be defending a heart contract, I suppose I want a spade lead

E. 4C
We can probably make 4C

F. 3NT ????
I was surprised to see I am not the only daffy duck choosing this. I don't promise to stick with it.

G.5D ?
Well, I'm not passing and so? I only claim 5D is not crazy. Possibly it is right.

H. Pass and D3
I guess pard has a void somewhere and it's not in spades (or clubs).
I hope pard knows what he is doing.
Should I therefore feel 7C is a good sac? Nah. Pard doubled, pard expects me to pass and lead a D, I'll pass and lead a D.

Plan for the rest of the day:
Mow the grass
Think these over
Send them in
Get me to the site on time
Ken