Author Topic: 2021 July MSC  (Read 10157 times)

Masse24

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2021 July MSC
« on: May 04, 2021, 01:00:17 AM »
Contest deadline change: The deadline for the JULY MSC contest is May 31 at 11:59 p.m. (ET).


JULY 2021 MSC

Deadline: May 31 at 11:59 p.m. (ET)

Submit your JULY MSC responses here: The Bridge World - MASTER SOLVERS CLUB

BWS 2017 System: BWS 2017
BWS 2017 POLLS, CHANGES AND ADDITIONS: BWS 2017 - Polls, Changes, and Additions
  • Bridge World Standard 2017 (BWS or BWS2017) is effective beginning with the January 2017 Master Solvers' Club problems. This page shows (1) the results of the panelist polls that were used to adjust the system; and (2) the changes in and the additions to Bridge World Standard 2001 (BWS2001) that were made.
    In the listings of the questions and answers, an asterisk indicates the BWS2001 agreement; the proportion of the expert votes for each item, rounded to the nearest percent, is shown in brackets.


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« Last Edit: June 02, 2021, 12:44:41 AM by Masse24 »
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jcreech

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Re: 2021 July MSC
« Reply #1 on: May 04, 2021, 04:19:21 PM »
My guess is that we are at least 10 days from seeing anything more of substance for June, so these are my initial thoughts for July (and there are several that may change before I submit my Final Answers:

Spoiler Alert!  This may be the first true test of how much Todd hates lead problems.  Let us see how he responds to Problem H this month!

Problem A:  2 !S  I'm not afraid of the Moysian when taking the tap in the short hand.  For the negative double partner should definitely have at least four spades when the opponents have hearts.

Problem B:  1 NT  I am torn between letting this go, and upgrading to a balancing NT.  I prefer to make this call at the table, and see what my feel is.  Blind as we are, I think I will trust that we have the balance of power and bid.

Problem C:  3 !D  I have limited my hand, now I will let partner know I have diamonds with him and not completely broke.

Problem D:  2 !S  Nice lead directing diamond raise.

Problem E:  3 !S  I am giving this bad boy a full upgrade.  I have five spades and five clubs with partner.  If partner cannot support spades, we can revert to clubs.

Problem F:  3 !D  I have a really good hand, and am willing to bid 3NT with my Jxxx stopper, but partner is unlimited, so I am interested in where he might be headed.

Problem G:  5 !D  May as well put in my lead director on the way to 5 !H.  My calculation is that we will be down 1 in 5 !H.  I do not want to make it too easy for the opponents to be in slam, if that is right, make 5 !S if that is right, or be certain of doubling if that is right.

Problem H:  Pass| !D 3  Putting my trust in partner.  He preempted and then doubled them in slam.  I will try to hit partner's void, and advertise that I have a top club.  I almost pulled to 7 !C so I would not have the lead problem.
A stairway to nowhere is better than no stairway at all.  -Kehlog Albran

Masse24

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Re: 2021 July MSC
« Reply #2 on: May 04, 2021, 09:39:20 PM »

Spoiler Alert!  This may be the first true test of how much Todd hates lead problems.  Let us see how he responds to Problem H this month!

Hey, I'm on a roll! Three straight months with the top lead guess.  ;)  Anyone for four?

I think the lead is the easy part here. Clearly, partner is asking for a !D. But it sure feels like lefty is void in clubs. If so, and 6 !H doubled is making, that's 1,660. If I pull partner's double to 7 !C (doubled of course), we're down what? 4? 5? 6?

One question I have is, would partner double with seven clubs? Does the likelihood of a void (holding seven) influence partner's willingness to double for the lead with the diamond void? I dunno. Seems like partner knows all this and must have another trick somewhere. Maybe !S K?

[Added] I'm missing something here. I'm never confident about a lead problem, but this one seems clear. What, what, what am I missing?

Glad there's a month remaining! :o

By the way . . .

Did I mention I hate lead problems?
« Last Edit: May 08, 2021, 01:40:55 PM by Masse24 »
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blubayou

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Re: 2021 July MSC
« Reply #3 on: May 05, 2021, 01:02:51 PM »
PROBLEM A:>>  This is a memory-test from problem G last December?  There we had the hearts (Axxxxx) and opening side had the clubs; there we had 14 working, here we have 13 working plus their lone king.  The cue bid won big in December and it will again this month (But I would gladly trade December's  diamond jack for this month's stiff king in their suit --  a completely worthless card on offense, I must admit.)
                                                                 -- 3 Hearts --

PROBLEM B:>>  9 working is plenty to protect with.  I think I will take advantage of our passed-hand status and try to double-and-bid in spades.  But 2 clubs and one spade are still in the running.  ( I thought the balancing 1NT with xx in their suit went extinct before I was 25,when Queen Elizabeth was coronated!)
                                                                -- Double? --
PROBLEM C:>>  I see no reason to avoid the spade preference just because pard is more likely to have a diamond suit than were I not a passed hand (She IS ALLOWED to pass with a minimal 5=3=3=2). So I keep it open in case we can wander into 3NT. Speaking of wandering into 3NT, my wife favors giving this very stoppery 9-count a promotion  and rebidding 2NT,  as if it were 10-11, yet we are together on not going to the 3-level --in DIAMONDS.  2NT is henceforth on my radar (needs a 50-deal simulation!)
                                                               -- 2 Spades --
PROBLEM D:>>  Will we lie down to 3 Hearts?  I say yes to that, So I will call the lead I think I REALY want-- which is clubs.  The spades may well take care of themselves.  Costly if declarer opp has Qx and a profitable spade dump on doubler's Axx(x).  If we were going to push to the 4-level, no point in calling either lead really.         
                                                               -- 3 Clubs --

PROBLEM E:>>  What's the problem? -- Famous last words indeed!
                                                                -- 3 Spades --

PROBLEM F:>> If our cue bid of 3 Diamonds receives a 4 Club response,  who gets the blame?
                                                               -- 3 Notrump -- 
     
PROBLEM G:>>  I might actually submit this answer in 3 weeks:
                                                               -- 7 Hearts --
PROBLEM H:>>  If partner really has 0 diamonds and (max) 2 hearts,  then he  must have 8-9 clubs,   or else be 4-2-0-7, up with which we shall not put,  yet not up to opening four at green vulnerability.   So our seven sacrifice will be 500 if he scores his hypothetical spade top, and 800 if his spades are queen high or worse.  If I recall,  the player who can make a Lightner double does so  and doesn't worry where the OTHER trick is coming from.  If running to 7C is wrong,  I sure hope our teamies somehow are playing any of their 3 slams  from the other direction and bringing it home, because..........
                                                                -- 7 Clubs --
Two footnotes come to mind over this problem:  (1) Do the panelists consider IMP scoring to mean a head-to-head match with more or less chosen teammates, or cross-imps as is commonly played all around BBO?? I would trust our friends in the closed room to have avoided this pickle somehow, but not so much a random gaggle of 15 unknown East-Wests.
               (2) can anybody show me a distribution around the table OTHER than:
                                                                                                  XXX
                                                                                                   XX
                                                                                                    ---
                                        3 !C   P                                  XXXX     XXXXXXXX    XXXX
                           5 !C  X     P    5 !H                               XXXX                         XXXX   
                             P   6 !H   X     P                                   XXXXX                        XXXX
                            __?                                                      ---        XX                 X
                                                                                                   XXX
                                                                                                   Q9XX
                                                                                                   AKTX
.....that satisfies the given bidding,  (assuming the diamond void business is in fact what is going on)?
« Last Edit: May 24, 2021, 10:13:00 PM by blubayou »
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jcreech

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Re: 2021 July MSC
« Reply #4 on: May 07, 2021, 01:01:38 PM »
If I recall,  the player who can make a lightner double does so  and doesn't worry where the OTHER trick is coming from. 

Sorry, Jock.  A Lightner Double implies that the doubler can see the setting tricks if partner can find the desired lead.  Larry Cohen writes "The doubler expects that without alerting his partner to the need for a special lead, the slam will make."  It may not always be true, for example, I recently saw a hand where the defender and dummy both had voids, but  had bigger trump than the defender.  A close, but no cigar situation.  I would be willing to make the Lightner double gamble in that situation.

You may make a Lightner double without considering the other defensive trick, but I do not.
A stairway to nowhere is better than no stairway at all.  -Kehlog Albran

peuco

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Re: 2021 July MSC
« Reply #5 on: May 16, 2021, 07:06:29 PM »
First ideas which will not change much

A. 2S not much to it
B. X maybe p is loaded on Ds. if not i bid Spades after Hearts
C. 3D i have seen game with this kind of holding
D. 3C take advantage of BWS for an eventual C lead
E. 3S what else
F. 3NT do not want to hear 4C if i cuebid 3D
G. 5D follow Jim, maybe they stay out of slam
H. D 3 my rule i i prefer to let the blame on p rather myself. If they make with the D lead, he gets redfaced. If i bid 7C and they were down my face would turn ultraviolet

yleexotee

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Re: 2021 July MSC
« Reply #6 on: May 19, 2021, 10:09:39 PM »
First stab at it:

A: 2s or 3h- asking for a stopper
B: X or 2C - would lead more strongly toward X if I had only 1 diamond.
C: Pass. I have an unsavory collection of Queens and Jacks, and partner is not showing much else either. Lets try the possible 8 card diamond fit rather than the 7 card spades. When ops come in with their 2h, we have 2s to fall back to. But also pass never scores well, so there's that.
D: Taking the hint - 2S
E: Pass - its a crummy spade suit, and I don't have enough to force to game in clubs, with no way to ask about NT. I think I can be convinced to try 3S, which would be easier to swallow if West had already passed. Partner can X if he needs me to get in the action with a better than average hand. But also pass never scores well, so there's that.
F: 4S or 3nt. we seem to have game going points, but clubs are a mystery. might be ok in moysian. I have the stopper in diamonds, so asking for a stopper seems a recipe for the disaster of passing 3nt when that's our best spot.
G: 5H. Trying to stay out of trouble so I don't bid 5D, might look like I'm encouraging slam bid by partner, which I don't want to do opposite guys like me and their preempts.
H: Pass, 3D

Masse24

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Re: 2021 July MSC
« Reply #7 on: May 22, 2021, 01:25:17 AM »

PROBLEM C:>>  I see no reason to avoid the spade preference just because pard is more likely to have a diamond suit than were I not a passed hand (She IS ALLOWED to pass with a minimal 5=3=3=2). So I keep it open in case we can wander into 3NT. Speaking of wandering into 3NT, my wife favors giving this very stoppery 9-count a promotion  and rebidding 2NT,  as if it were 10-11, yet we are together on not going to the 3-level --in DIAMONDS.  2NT is henceforth on my radar (needs a 50-deal simulation!)

Pard is more likely to have a diamond suit? No. Pard absolutely has a diamond suit since I am a passed hand and 1NT is not forcing. Therefore, pard's 2 !D shows 4+ in the suit.

Because partner's 2 !D is wide-ranging (we could have game), I (as you wrote, Blu) "keep it open." But never with 2 !S since I know we have an 8-card !D fit. And I agree with the "very stoppery" description. So 2NT is on the table. The nice thing about 2NT is that I have already limited my hand with my "passed hand" 1NT showing 6-9ish.   

A coin flip at the moment between the safe 3 !D and pushy 2NT.


P.S. I'll be stealing "very stoppery" for future posts.  ;)
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DickHy

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Re: 2021 July MSC
« Reply #8 on: May 22, 2021, 10:00:21 AM »
C.  BWS after our opening of 1M:  a one-notrump response is semi-forcing (limited to at most game-invitational strength; opener may pass with 5-3-3-2 or 4=5=2=2 and a hand deemed no stronger than 12 high-card points.  This applies when I am an unpassed hand.  So when I have passed and then bid 1N, N would pass with a minimum 5(332)*.  This suggests N has 5x4x.  He may be minimum (11-13) but he would also bid this way with 14 or 15.  My HCP are max for my bid, and also I have nice spot cards in every suit. 

If N is 14/15, a 3D bid is likely to end the auction (and preclude 3N) so 2N from me would be better.   If N is a bare minimum 11/bad 12, a 2N bid is going to produce a negative score, but with a good 12/13, 2N might have chances.  So 2N could be worth the risk. 

At IMPs what’s best, a guaranteed 3D or a stab at a putative 3N which could produce a negative score?   
 

DickHy

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Re: 2021 July MSC
« Reply #9 on: May 22, 2021, 04:17:53 PM »
We've had a dreadfully wet May.  Yet again, cricket has been stopped, so I'll post this even though it may be tripe.

A.  3H (3N).  According to BWS: Among advancer's actions when responder raises opener: a double is not for penalty (for takeout or showing general values, depending on level).   If N’s double was for takeout, EW have a 10/11 card fit and one of them would have bid 3H (or some punchier bid than 2H).  Therefore, N must have three (maybe four hearts) and “general values”.  For a passed hand these had better be in the 8-10 HCP range or there’s going to be shouting in the bar afterwards.  Holding the heart king, should I simply bid 3N?  Suppose I bid 3H asking for a heart stop (does 3H have this meaning in BWS?) and partner has JTx or Qxx, will he bid 3N? Still, 3H gives more options 

B.  X.  Balancing seems right.  N and W have 28 HCP between them.  N could well be 12-14 with three or four diamonds (pretty much like W), but probably hasn’t got five hearts.  That raises hopes for a spade fit.  Balancing with a 2C bid is likely to lose the spades if they’re there.  When N bids 1H over my x I can bid 1S; p will know I have only four spades and because I’m a passed hand won’t get overly excited.  My hand is close to a 1N balancing bid (10/11 by a passed hand and not necessarily promising a stopper over a minor suit opening), and I wonder if that will get some votes.

C.  3D or 2N (see above).

D.  3C.  We don’t open a weak 2 with an outside three- or four- card major, so EW have a nine-card heart fit.  I can lead my spades safely, so if I want to direct the lead, 3C is the choice. 

E.  3S.  W is yet to bid, so how strong is p and what are his diamonds like?  3S is over-egging but gives N a chance to bid 3N with decent diamond stop(s).  If N is 2425/2434 with no diamond stop, he may well bid 4H; after all, I could be 54 in the majors. That will mean we play in 5C.  Will it be that bad?

F.  3N.  Would N make a negative x with five spades?  Hopefully not, but he might have four spades and three hearts (a 44 trump fit leaving the hearts for discards).  3N looks reasonable – apart from being a pragmatic bid, it shows my hand quite well (18/19, stop in diamonds).  If partner has got three hearts, I can rely on him bidding 4H and then I will go slamming.  Of course, p with 4315 might make a heart slam move himself (quite what that may be eludes me just now – 4C? 4N? or just 5H?)

G.  6H (6D).  We’re not vulnerable so partner may well just hold AQ in hearts.  One opponent with a heart void and the other with a diamond singleton looks entirely possible - say E is 5215 – so they have a slam.  Will 5H really change the price of fish? 6H looks better.  If W then bids 6S, we can sacrifice in 7H.  If W was eyeing a minor suit slam (3046), well … let him squirm a bit. 

  • What about 6D instead of 6H?  If W passes that, partner will need to be on the ball and bid 6H.  Can I rely on that?  I wonder what partner would conclude if asking the same of me.  If I can rely on p, 6D gets a lead director in – to what end, though? It might dissuade them from bidding a failing grand.  But would the grand fail if I bid 6H and partner missed the diamond lead?

H.  Pass and D3.  W must surely be void in clubs, but what does N mean with his x?  Does it mean “don’t lead clubs” – in which case he must want a diamond lead.  Is it likely that he is 4207, with W 4450 and E 3442?  Well, maybe.  Partner would hardly double without a second trick.  That must be partner’s major suit king (after all, he’s got only 3 HCP in clubs).  Therefore, partner has the spade king which looks a sure trick on the auction.  Partner might have the heart king instead of the spade king but then his double is more of a gamble, but not without a chance – although the heart king will be stiff after ruffing a diamond, W might still contrive to take the losing trump finesse.   

Masse24

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Re: 2021 July MSC
« Reply #10 on: May 23, 2021, 06:30:54 PM »
July - first guesses:


PROBLEM A: 2 !S. This one is difficult, I think. My gut tells me 2 !S, which I may change to. (changed.)
This is an underbid. But 3 !H is an overbid. I can see several possible answers to this one.


PROBLEM B: 1 !S. It occurs to me that 1 !S is a good way to preclude partner from a silly jump in hearts. This is the only suit I can bid on the one level.


PROBLEM C: 3 !D. Partner’s range is wide. My range is limited to a 6-9 or so (or bad 10). Pass seems timid. 2NT is a slight overbid, though the lead coming up to my heart and club honors is desirable. If partner has the values to go on, since he has already denied four hearts, a 3 !H bid on the tails of my 3 !D would ask me to bid 3NT with the proper club honors.


PROBLEM D: 3 !C. Follow the MSC hint. This feels safer than 2 !S. The spades are not going anywhere, and I want the lead to come into my !C KJT tenace.


PROBLEM E: 3 !S. Trying to find a spade fit. We always have clubs to fall back on. Shows 5+ spades and is a GF. We have the length, but is that hand a GF? Maybe with the 30 point deck—and spectacular club support—it is? Aggressive—often a winning choice in the MSC.

I could also see double here, which would be the "slow roll" approach.


PROBLEM F: 3 !D. My first impression choice, which is more flexible. Maybe partner has a fifth !S ? Two decent !H ? I may reconsider this. But I do worry that the "Hamman's Rule" 3NT is now or never. Partner has something like !S QTxx !H xx !D xx !C HHxxx. Actually, I think either 3 !D or 3NT will score okay.

I flip-flopped on this. My explanation for 3NT was a pithy: TGBH. This is usually enough, but we have enough to explore a bit with the cuebid.


PROBLEM G: 6 !H. Make 'em guess high. Not brave enough for 7 !H. Tempted to pass and hope they miss slam.

I totally get 5 !D, but the space-consuming jump to 6 !H, while keeping partner out of the loop, certainly creates more problems for the opps.


PROBLEM H: Pass | !D 3. Holding fast to my "dislike" of lead problems. This (formerly 7 !C) is today's choice. Tomorrow might be different. I'm preparing my apology to partner. 

[Added] Today is tomorrow. I can't do it. I can't find a convincing reason to pull partner's double.  :-\

I hate lead problems!


FINAL PICKS:

PROBLEM A: 2 Spades
PROBLEM B: 1 Spade
PROBLEM C: 3 Diamonds
PROBLEM D: 3 Clubs
PROBLEM E: 3 Spades
PROBLEM F: 3 Diamonds
PROBLEM G: 6 Hearts
PROBLEM H: Pass | Diamond 3     ---   Almost pulled the trigger on 7 !C at the last second, but just could not do it.  :o
« Last Edit: June 01, 2021, 12:08:35 AM by Masse24 »
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blubayou

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Re: 2021 July MSC
« Reply #11 on: May 23, 2021, 10:09:52 PM »
problem A:  Hey  you lowball people,  here's the news from the 1970s:  the book responsive double after (1H)  2C  (2H) , ___   equalls  !S KQxxx,  !H [whatever]  !D Kxxxx,  !C  [not void].  We should be headed for spade game, probably without  letting pard decline an invite.   I don't care  that my 16count and this partner's  8-10  leaves the enemy with 14 to 16 moth-eaten points  along with their ten+ trumps--that is the way it IS.

PROBLEM H AND G :( ::   Do you find 'a BUNCH OF SPADES" acceptable  in your MSC unknown partner?  i do NOT.   she is 3=2=0=,  or wsheesh-- i mushed together updates from prob G  and H in here  How can i make the leaderboard with a mind this  disorganized?llchasing moonbeams about the coming diamond ruff.  I am repenting of going 'Full Monty' direct to s,  with regret.  South must call the diamond lead or there is 50-50 chance  the opps will make MORE spades than they deserve  (unless seven is cold from the beginning)
« Last Edit: May 25, 2021, 10:04:13 PM by blubayou »
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DickHy

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Re: 2021 July MSC
« Reply #12 on: May 24, 2021, 02:15:41 PM »
problem A:  Hey  you lowball people,  here's the news from the 1970s:  the book responsive double after (1H)  2C  (2H) , ___   equalls  !S KQxxx,  !H [whatever]  !D Kxxxx,  !C  [not void].  We should be headed for spade game, probably without  letting pard decline an invite.   I don't care  that my 16count and this partner's  8-10  leaves the enemy with 14 to 16 moth-eaten points  along with their ten+ trumps--that is the way it IS.

Blu, I always bow to your better judgement but, in this case, I feel some dissent starting to bubble. 

There was a problem a couple of months ago when faced with a choice of showing a two-suited hand (which was 5M 4m -- I think), the majority of the MSC panel favoured showing the five-card major.  Certainly holding the hand above, I would not pfaff about doubling when I can show my five spades at the two-level (in BWS advancer's new suit is forcing?).  So I would infer from North's double that he has not got five spades.

blubayou

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Re: 2021 July MSC
« Reply #13 on: May 24, 2021, 07:11:47 PM »
Hi,  DickH;  the virtual twin to this deal that I refer to is December prob. G.  Sadly  my pile of downloads do not include the 14 page MSC discussion for that month,  but Jims exhaustive summery does state that the cue-bid beat "other"  by 20-7 --and that some of the "other"  were repeating our mangy 6-card major,  which will not happen  now that OUR mangy 6-carder is [yukk] CLUBS.  Unfortunately for my cause, there was little quotating about rspo-doubler promising 5 spades ( only Kit Woolsey made a showing in the summery)  but i do  believe this,  and WackoJack believes she has near 10 HCP,  so again,  I am off to  the spade game this month.    Can't imagine why we are cuebidding before doing this--maybe to let pard know we aren't bluffing.
G.  6H (6D).  We’re not vulnerable so partner may well just hold AQ in hearts.  One opponent with a heart void and the other with a diamond singleton looks entirely possible ...

  • What about 6D instead of 6H?  If W passes that, partner will need to be on the ball and bid 6H.[/l][/l][/l][/l]
   

Hey  DickY!  I will buy the table and all kibbs the next round if the opps -- center opp included-- drops me in six diamonds!  If it's a 7-1 fit I have already screwed the pooch, probably,  but if bidding above 5 spades was the correct guess,  i can hardly go for more than 250,  and really imagine one or two fewer.
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« Last Edit: May 29, 2021, 05:41:24 AM by blubayou »
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Masse24

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Re: 2021 July MSC
« Reply #14 on: May 25, 2021, 12:22:47 AM »
Spoiler Alert!  This may be the first true test of how much Todd hates lead problems.  Let us see how he responds to Problem H this month!

I'm currently stuck on the sac in 7 !C, which technically converts this from a lead problem to a bidding problem. I'm only choosing this route to avoid the angst I feel in choosing leads.

Thanks, Jim for pointing this convenient escape clause out to me!  :)
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