Author Topic: 2020 December - MASTER SOLVER'S CLUB  (Read 217 times)

Masse24

  • Moderator
  • Sr. Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 444
  • Karma: +9/-4
    • View Profile
2020 December - MASTER SOLVER'S CLUB
« on: October 13, 2020, 01:37:57 PM »
DECEMBER 2020 MSC

Deadline: NOVEMBER 10 at 9:00 a.m. (ET)

Submit your DECEMBER MSC responses here: The Bridge World - MASTER SOLVERS CLUB

BWS 2017 System: BWS 2017
BWS 2017 POLLS, CHANGES AND ADDITIONS: BWS 2017 - Polls, Changes, and Additions
  • Bridge World Standard 2017 (BWS or BWS2017) is effective beginning with the January 2017 Master Solvers' Club problems. This page shows (1) the results of the panelist polls that were used to adjust the system; and (2) the changes in and the additions to Bridge World Standard 2001 (BWS2001) that were made.
    In the listings of the questions and answers, an asterisk indicates the BWS2001 agreement; the proportion of the expert votes for each item, rounded to the nearest percent, is shown in brackets.


IAC Forum MSC Scores


*     *     *

“Kindness is the only service that will stand the storm of life and not wash out. It will wear well and will be remembered long after the prism of politeness or the complexion of courtesy has faded away.” Abraham Lincoln

blubayou

  • IACAdmins
  • Jr. Member
  • *
  • Posts: 79
  • Karma: +1/-0
  • lifelong director [1977-2010] and haunter of ACBL
    • View Profile
Re: 2020 December - MASTER SOLVER'S CLUB
« Reply #1 on: October 13, 2020, 09:15:45 PM »



A: Give partner some leeway--pass    B:  17 pts can overcall 2 of a minor--ignoring the heart queen
C:  Invite with our "6-card suit"          D;  Go for the minus 160!
E:  A CLASSIC  UNT .                             F:  And a balanced 12-14, of the same "purity" that "E" has for UNT ;>
G: CUE partner into the party.            H:  I bid my 16-count and that skip-straight 6bagger already. Done.
                                                                                  (  oops!   leading 4th in longest & strongest )
   Here is my 2nd 15-minute quick-and-dirty   which will probably outscore my 8 final answers in four weeks --AGAIN.
« Last Edit: October 23, 2020, 02:55:41 AM by blubayou »
often it is better to beg forgiveness, than ask permission

blubayou

  • IACAdmins
  • Jr. Member
  • *
  • Posts: 79
  • Karma: +1/-0
  • lifelong director [1977-2010] and haunter of ACBL
    • View Profile
Re: 2020 December - MASTER SOLVER'S CLUB
« Reply #2 on: October 19, 2020, 02:20:51 AM »
OK, there are FEW re-thinks  from the above'from the hip'votes..   but these five  I might as well send today to Bridge  World:
Problem B:>>  Overcall 2D,  then double any expected rebid--if any, is my only plan, but it sure ain't pretty.
Problem D:>>  Leaving in the double of one heart took two seconds,  and we will never look deeper.
Problem E:>>  The selling point for me on Michaels, and unusual notrump is that you can express a hand that, if it were only 5-4             distribution WOULD NOT BE WORTH A BID AT ALL, or would be worth one bid only, leaving one with that left-over feeling later.  That is how I feel about this one.  The 5 child hearts make it ugly,  but count me IN.
Problem F:>>  It's a balanced 12:::  Open your minor and rebid a notrump.  What's the problem??
Problem G:>>  Cue-bid-- Encourage partner in whichever suit he wants to be encouraged in.  Who has a plan "B"?
   These five are settled for me;  that leaves  [A]  [C] and  [H]  to fuss over for three weeks.  Come on  IAC  give me some wisdoms!
                 (why is it ALWAYS  ,  A,  C,   and  H   ?)
« Last Edit: October 19, 2020, 12:11:50 PM by blubayou »
often it is better to beg forgiveness, than ask permission

jcreech

  • Moderator
  • Sr. Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 348
  • Karma: +4/-0
    • View Profile
Re: 2020 December - MASTER SOLVER'S CLUB
« Reply #3 on: October 19, 2020, 12:03:23 PM »

Problem F:>>  It's a balanced 12:::  Open your minor and rebid a notrump.  What's the problem??
Problem G:>>  Cue-bid-- Encourage partner in whichever suit he wants to be encouraged in.  Who has a plan "B"?
   These five are settled for me;  that leaves  [A]  [C] and  [H]  to fuss over for three weeks.  Come on  IAC  give me some wisdoms!
                 (why is it ALWAYS  ,  A,  C,   and  H   ?)


Ok - you didn't ask for help seeing other alternatives for the others, but

On F - it may be a balanced minimum, but one stopper in the two unbids might be more than some may want to take on.  Although my inclination is to bid 1NT, as you did, I have not entirely ruled out bidding 2C to show the solidity of the club suit or 2 !D to advertise good clubs, a diamond fit and concern for the majors in NT.  Also, I only have one card to be led into, and it may be a filler for partner than a tenace position.  So it may not be so automatic, there are other considerations.  Supposedly, a bridge problem is a hand that has three or more reasonable choices - I think it applies here.

On G - some may think of the cue bid as being too strong of an action, but the Moysian fit will work out fine with the singleton club in your hand, so bidding either of partner's responsive double suits is reasonable, as is rebidding or jump rebid to show a longer heart suit.  I still haven't developed an initial position on this hand, but I can see these as possible plan A, B, C, D ...

As for A, C and H - when I sit down and take a look at them for my initial thoughts, I will pass them on to IAC.  Until then, I wouldn't mind seeing some initial thoughts from others.

kenberg

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 996
  • Karma: +13/-5
    • View Profile
Re: 2020 December - MASTER SOLVER'S CLUB
« Reply #4 on: October 20, 2020, 01:30:08 PM »
Thinking about C:

I assume the problem is that the hand is just a bit short of what we would like for a game force..

I also assume that a bid of 2 !C over 1 !S is game-forcing. I could not find that statement browsing through the BWS stuff, but I think that's how they play it.

I want to consider bidding 2NT. Of course this is passable and possibly I end in 2NT with no !C Stop. Ok, but worse tings have happened. And maybe partner will not pass. If not, then I think that with three card !H support he should bid 3 !H, meaning that "Yes, I accept the game invitation and I have three hearts in case you are interested".  That is, a 3 !H bid is forcing, offering a choice of games. Yes, this means that it is possible I will be playing in 2NT when partner has a 4=3=4=2 shape but if he lacks the values to accept the invitation that might not be all that bad. We might well have 8 tricks ready to go (five heart tricks and three elsewhere) as soon as we get the lead and that might well be the limit of the hand playing in hearts. I am saying "might" here. So sure, things can go wrong. But things can go wrong if I make a game forcing 2 !C bid and things can go wrong if I decide to treat my strong five card suit as if it were six cards.

My guess is that of I do bid 2NT then about half the time partner will accept the invitation and, if he does not have three hearts, 3NT will be a reasonable spot. 


So I think a case can be made for 2NT, even if I am less than confident that 2NT will be my choice. Mostly I want to see if we all agree that over 2NT a partner, if he accepts the invit, should bid 3 !H when holding three hearts. It seems cleat that 3 !H should be forcing since, after I bid 2NT, partner has to be prepared for me to have only a four card heart suit.
Ken

Masse24

  • Moderator
  • Sr. Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 444
  • Karma: +9/-4
    • View Profile
Re: 2020 December - MASTER SOLVER'S CLUB
« Reply #5 on: October 20, 2020, 10:47:15 PM »
Thinking about C:

I assume the problem is that the hand is just a bit short of what we would like for a game force..

I also assume that a bid of 2 !C over 1 !S is game-forcing. I could not find that statement browsing through the BWS stuff, but I think that's how they play it.

I want to consider bidding 2NT. Of course this is passable and possibly I end in 2NT with no !C Stop. Ok, but worse tings have happened. And maybe partner will not pass. If not, then I think that with three card !H support he should bid 3 !H, meaning that "Yes, I accept the game invitation and I have three hearts in case you are interested".  That is, a 3 !H bid is forcing, offering a choice of games. Yes, this means that it is possible I will be playing in 2NT when partner has a 4=3=4=2 shape but if he lacks the values to accept the invitation that might not be all that bad. We might well have 8 tricks ready to go (five heart tricks and three elsewhere) as soon as we get the lead and that might well be the limit of the hand playing in hearts. I am saying "might" here. So sure, things can go wrong. But things can go wrong if I make a game forcing 2 !C bid and things can go wrong if I decide to treat my strong five card suit as if it were six cards.

My guess is that of I do bid 2NT then about half the time partner will accept the invitation and, if he does not have three hearts, 3NT will be a reasonable spot. 


So I think a case can be made for 2NT, even if I am less than confident that 2NT will be my choice. Mostly I want to see if we all agree that over 2NT a partner, if he accepts the invit, should bid 3 !H when holding three hearts. It seems cleat that 3 !H should be forcing since, after I bid 2NT, partner has to be prepared for me to have only a four card heart suit.

Yes, I agree Ken. 3 !H must be forcing. It is merely an "I accept your invitation to game and oh, by-the-way, I have three hearts" bid.

BTW, I hate 2NT. Which is why I am leaning that way too.

I'm just happy my clubs are not weaker.
“Kindness is the only service that will stand the storm of life and not wash out. It will wear well and will be remembered long after the prism of politeness or the complexion of courtesy has faded away.” Abraham Lincoln

blubayou

  • IACAdmins
  • Jr. Member
  • *
  • Posts: 79
  • Karma: +1/-0
  • lifelong director [1977-2010] and haunter of ACBL
    • View Profile
Re: 2020 December - MASTER SOLVER'S CLUB
« Reply #6 on: October 23, 2020, 12:53:42 AM »
Problem C  is a perfect candidate for Sanya's deal-generator, which hasn't happened for a couple months.   I set the south to Qx, AKQ98, xx, 6542,   and north to generate 11-19 point diamond openers with four spades (allowing five might have been more fun--sorry)   After banging away through 180 deals  we have 100 that would actually be bid as required.  On 45 of them, it DID NOT MATTER which of the 3 thinkable rebids we choose!  "2NT", "3H" and 4SGF="2C"  each had less than 10 wins versus the other two.....And [hold onto your hat!]  the kitchen-bridge/Kaspar Milktoast  "2H" won more times than those three combined.  So who will adopt the wimpy 2H rebid  in challenge-the-champs I dare you.  (Meant  the MSC of course [does the magazine still do  "challenge the champs'??)
   As an aside,  the experiment  showed forcefully  how important it is for opener to check back when holding 3 hearts,
when able to accept. should responder choose the 2NT rebid -- As discussed in the chats just above!
The "all answers end at same place" category would shrink considerably, and "2NT"would turn into a disasterous choice if that advice is not followed.
   PPS:  it was eye-opening to notice that every time 'we' ended up in notrump, the defenders won the battle of the spots in the club suit, no matter how much help north brought to the party--cashing the 4th round over our six-spot  was pretty monotonous and was a major factor in the giant underbid-rebid of "2H" having had such a great winning ratio.
« Last Edit: October 23, 2020, 08:22:52 AM by blubayou »
often it is better to beg forgiveness, than ask permission

kenberg

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 996
  • Karma: +13/-5
    • View Profile
Re: 2020 December - MASTER SOLVER'S CLUB
« Reply #7 on: October 23, 2020, 02:17:57 PM »
I am leaving the comment, since I once made it. But see addendum below.

Indulge me a bit/ I am a long time skeptic of using computer programs to analyze such situations.   Some thoughts:
For example:
You say: On 45 of them, it DID NOT MATTER which of the 3 thinkable rebids we choose!  "2NT", "3H" and 4SGF="2C"

Bidding 2C will put them in game so, if it doesn't matter which bid is made on these  45 hands then I guess opener has enough strength to accept the game inviting bids of 3H and 2NT, else it would matter that 2C was bid. Further, if responder bids the game invitational 3 !H, I would expect that opener, if he accepts the invitation, will bid 4 !H rather than 3NT, while if opener has two hearts then, over the game invitational 2NT, he would, if he accepts, bid 3NT rather than 4 !H. This is matchpoints so even if both 3NT and 4 !H make, it matters which one we choose.

So the only case I see where it won't matter is if opener has three hearts and the strength to accept an invitation. Then they end in 4 !H no matter which of the three calls is made. (I am ignoring the possibility that opener could have slam interest). So maybe it is true that on 45 of the hands opener has three hearts and will accept any of the three invitations. Is that it?

Well, I guess I can think of another possibility. If opener has two hearts and will always accept, and if 3NT and 4 !H both fail by one trick, then it won't matter. If responder bids 3 !H opener raises to 4 !H, off 1, and if responder bids 2NT then opener raises to 3NT, off one.

Also, suppose opener has !C KJx. Or !C Kx. And suppose he has two hearts. Now, if responder bids 2NT he will be playing the NT, while if he bids 2 !C, opener will be playing the NT. I would be surprised if it never mattered which had was dummy. Although here we also have the possibility that 2NT will be passed. So maybe sometimes, after a 2NT call, the contract is 2NT off 1 because the wrong hand is declarer, but this is matched against the 2 !C call where opener rebids 2NT but now, since 2 !C was game forcing, the contract is 3NT down only 1 because opener is declarer.

And I would expect that on may hands there will be options as to declarer play and defense.


Anyway I am trying to understand just why it does not matter on these 45 hands.

Addendum.
Ah yes, while clearly it matters on each hand I guess it could be that while bidding 3 !H will sometimes be off 1 while 2NT would have made while other times bidding 2NT will lead to +120 while bidding 3H will  lead to plus 140, so that no matter which we do we will sometimes wish we had done the other. Still, I am less than convinced. And still not sure just what is being said.

Suppose that the N hand is such that we can be confident that, with the given S hand, the auction will begin 1 !D - 1 !H - 1 !S. Now imagine that 30 pairs are given the NS cards. Ten Souths are instructed to rebid 3 !H, ten rebid 2NT, ten rebid 2 !C. Then the auction goes however it goes and the hands are played. I guess a way of thinking of "it doesn't matter" is to say that if you could place a bet on which group of ten will come out best, there is no reason to choose one group over the other.  That would indeed be surprising..




« Last Edit: Yesterday at 01:25:14 AM by kenberg »
Ken