Author Topic: 2020 December - MASTER SOLVER'S CLUB  (Read 5476 times)

kenberg

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Re: 2020 December - MASTER SOLVER'S CLUB
« Reply #15 on: October 30, 2020, 08:23:15 PM »
My thoughts for right now:

A: Pass
B: 2 !D
C: 2 !C
D: 1NT
E: 1 !D
F: 2 !D
G: 2 !S
H: !C J

A and B are conservative choices and so by C I see the need to get out there and live a little .
I don't promise to stick with any of these.
My thinking for E is that partner is a passed hand, I don't have all that much, I expect the opponents to be the declaring side. If partner is going to be on lead I want a !D lead, not a !H. Well, at least I think I want a !D. Depends a bit.
Ken

kenberg

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Re: 2020 December - MASTER SOLVER'S CLUB
« Reply #16 on: November 03, 2020, 03:05:04 PM »
I am interested in thoughts about H.
We need 4 tricks. Probably I need something from partner to get to four tricks. He is not likely to have much. But maybe the club Q. Or maybe the club K.  Of course he might have something in one of the red suits. Could be. But it seems like the club J might build a trick and is not as likely to give a trick away. They need ten tricks. Most likely they get 5 trump tricks in hand so they need five more.  I suppose dummy might come down with AKxxx in clubs and declarer has the Qx. That's ten tricks. But even if I do not lead the club they are established and declarer could cash the top three, throwing something. So we had better be able to take the spade A and three more tricks.


But who knows? I can see arguments for practically any lead. Maybe I am fantasizing but I think I do better with leads at the table than I do at lead quizzes..

Ken

jcreech

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Re: 2020 December - MASTER SOLVER'S CLUB
« Reply #17 on: November 03, 2020, 09:12:12 PM »
Maybe I am fantasizing but I think I do better with leads at the table than I do at lead quizzes..

Maybe most lead problems at the table are not nearly as hard?

Many leads can be right, but which one will grab the brass ring?  I don't know, but I was a bit fearful of the !H A as either giving up two tricks, or being ruffed on the go and setting up a pitch on the !H K.  I've been burned a lot recently with QJx(x) or JTx(x) type leads, so I am skittish of the !C J lead, though I could switch to a small club hoping for something good to happen. 

To be perfectly honest, I am still looking toward the ceiling awaiting divine guidance.
A stairway to nowhere is better than no stairway at all.  -Kehlog Albran

DickHy

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Re: 2020 December - MASTER SOLVER'S CLUB
« Reply #18 on: November 05, 2020, 10:19:01 PM »
Thoughts while waiting for the 49ers/Packers game -- not quite the match-up we were hoping for (or that it once was):

A) 4N.  Wasn’t there a problem like this some time ago?  I’m not (quite) geekish enough to keep records of the MSC hands and I can’t seem to find past contests.  If memory is accurate, the same “pass or 4N” debate uncovered the panel’s preference for 4N.  But, my memory …

B)  x.  OK, the Q of hearts may quickly be relegated to making tarts, but she could be of some use, and a double shows the strength.  If partner bids 2H or 1S, I will bid 3D.  If partner bids 2m, I can bid 2H.

C)  2C.  Bridge World says, “After a one-level new-suit response and opener's simple new-suit rebid: a fourth-suit bid at the two- or three-level is forcing to game”.  OK, I’m a bit short, but if we play in NT it’s partner’s clubs that need protection – that’s if he’s not got 3c H support.

D) 1N.  This feels a bit wimpish but I imagine partner can make a negative double at the 1-level with 6 or 7 HCP.  Bridge World doesn’t say a negative x necessarily shows 4 cards in the missing minor, so 2C has the weakness that it might hit a 3c suit … and the much graver weakness of hiding my H stops.  Bridge World says under negative doubles, “After opener's one-notrump rebid, responder's two-level cue-bid shows invitational-plus strength.  If partner has 10+ HCP he can invite.

E)  2N.  2N or 1D? How bad will playing in 3Hx be in a xxxxx/xx fit?  Partner will surely choose H when 22 in the red suits.  He is a passed hand, so opponents could well have a vulnerable game.  Then again, perhaps I’m pessimistic; partner is bound to have 3c support for one of my two suits!  Bridge World; The requirements for initial pre-emptive defensive actions (jump overcalls; the weak version of two-suited actions) are possibly light.  So, there’s that excuse for the bar afterwards.  Besides, on the day I overcall 1D, partner will have four hearts and one diamond. 

F)  2C.  1N shows the HCP, but 2C shows the hand.  Partner could well be starting a Walsh-like/invitational + sequence and then the choice doesn’t matter too much (if at all).  If he’s weak with say 3343 then 2C looks a better spot to play than 1N.  One problem might be if he is weak with long diamonds – say 3361 or 3352.  Then he will bid 2D over 1N which looks safer than 2C with such hands, but maybe not 2D over 2C.  Still, I’m the weak one in the partnership, so 2C it is.

G)  2H (3C?)  What does the raise of clubs mean?  Bridge World says that responder’s single raise of opener’s 1m after an intervening double is natural, similar to a single major suit raise.  If that applies to a simple overcall too, it makes this a 20/20 hand.  What then does partner’s double mean? Bridge World is not much help: Among advancer's actions when responder raises opener: a double is not for penalty (for takeout or showing general values, depending on level).  If partner’s double shows general values, then deflation has set in, ‘cos he’s got only 6 or 7.  I have a choice of bidding one of his suits, with only 3c support, or showing the 6th heart.  Admittedly, the 3 cards in either case are spiffing, but if partner is 4243 and his values are in his long suits, then hearts looks the best spot.  So, I’m tending towards 2H.  3C is exerting a strange pull, however … must find my pills.

H)  Partner’s a passed hand and I don’t think he will have that much.  West could easily have 14 HCP to go with his 4/5 spades.  I’m going to be end-played often, so the temptation is to get rid of the AS and have a look at the world.  Surely that’s not going to cost with 10 or 11 trumps with E and W (and might help if - fingers and toes crossed – partner has Kx in S).  After that I can see what W holds and probably bang out with the JC.

wackojack

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Re: 2020 December - MASTER SOLVER'S CLUB
« Reply #19 on: November 06, 2020, 06:41:54 PM »
Thoughts on C

1. Acol players this side of the Atlantic would play 2 !C as game invite plus (not game force).  Then 2 !C becomes the obvious bid.

2. BBO Adv plays 2 way check-back in this xyz sequence.  Then a bid of 2 !C would be a relay to 2 !D and then you as responder would rebid 2 !H.  This gives opener more room to explore. Sadly BWS does not play this.

3. Consider opener's most likely distribution.  4153 and 4351 are the main contenders.  With 4243 and 4343 the usual rebid is 1NT skipping the 4 card  !S suit.  With 4153, 2NT is most likely to be the winning bid.  With 4351 game becomes likely and 2 !C will get partner to show her 3 card heart support ending in 4 !H.  4153 is statistically more likely than 4351 because there are more spaces opposite the club suit.

So I bet on 2NT because we can stop short of game if partner has a minimum and can find a 5-3 heart fit when partner has a bit better than a minimum. 

Curls77

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Re: 2020 December - MASTER SOLVER'S CLUB
« Reply #20 on: November 07, 2020, 03:53:39 PM »
Watch me Jim!!  ;D

A) Pass
B) Double
C) wishing I lost connection, 2H
D) 2C
E) 2N unusual
F) 2D
G) 3H
H) sA

bAbsG

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Re: 2020 December - MASTER SOLVER'S CLUB
« Reply #21 on: November 08, 2020, 03:47:33 PM »
Your solutions have been received. This copy is for your records.

SOLVER: Babs Giesbrecht
             Qualicum Beach BC V9K 1C9
             Canada

Your Solutions for the December 2020 Contest 
-------------------
PROBLEM A: Pass
PROBLEM B: Double
PROBLEM C: 2 Clubs
PROBLEM D: 1 Notrump
PROBLEM E: 1 Diamond
PROBLEM F: 2 Clubs
PROBLEM G: 2 Spades
PROBLEM H: Club Jack

hoki

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Re: 2020 December - MASTER SOLVER'S CLUB
« Reply #22 on: November 08, 2020, 06:29:11 PM »
PROBLEM A: Pass
PROBLEM B: 2 Diamonds
PROBLEM C: 2 Notrump
PROBLEM D: 2 Clubs
PROBLEM E: 1 Heart
PROBLEM F: 2 Diamonds
PROBLEM G: 3 Clubs
PROBLEM H: Club Jack

kenberg

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Re: 2020 December - MASTER SOLVER'S CLUB
« Reply #23 on: November 08, 2020, 10:42:55 PM »
I suppose I must choose soon. I am now thinking of leading a !D on H. Who wouold ever do such a thing? Well, me maybe.
Ken

blubayou

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Re: 2020 December - MASTER SOLVER'S CLUB
« Reply #24 on: November 09, 2020, 01:17:44 AM »
OK   At last the votes are counted for our MSC "PROPOSITION C"!:
    1:>   Over 100 simulations for which either INVITATIONAL rebids  ( 3H or 2NT ) are not accepted result in defeat either because the OTHER invite works better,  or the notrump is wrongsided --as has been mentiond by our thoughtful friends above--,  or "just because those pitiful xxxx clubs prove to be a deathtrap.  Hardly any 2NT contracts by south ever made  unless the 5-2  or 5-1 heart suit could be run without loss  when opener held 11-13 hcp!
    2:>   When an invitational rebid could be accepted,  it didn't matter much which was used, since 'we'  could always get to hearts when there was a fit, and always get OUT of hearts when there was not one -- sometimes to diamonds if opener was weak in clubs as well.
   3:>    The game-forcing 2C rebid did better, as we always got to the 8-card heart fit when it was there  ( forcing game is NOT MUCH OF AN OVERBID WHEN WE HAVE A HEART FIT, true?)  and the notrump is rightsided if opener has some club strength although  we sometimes are overbid  in 3NT.  Furthermore some hands belonged in DIAMONDS and that was easier done after the FSF  rebid, though again  sometimes we get a smidgeon high.  No SLAMS were missed after choosing the 2C rebid, while only ONE might have been bid after choosing either invitational rebid.


All in all,   this problem lead to very many contracts that went down even when bid to the 'correct' spot  which leads me to...
   4:>   The unthinkable underbid of TWO HEARTS took the gold medal,  wiping out half of those minus scores or reducing them , while not missing TOO many games that made when opener had serious extra points.


    If you cannot bear to rebid 2H with 11+  then game forcing 2C is the way to go,  but I am joining Sanya with  the super-lowball  "2 HEARTS"  which ought to suck in the MSC scoring.   This is it for my observations for the month .I worked my butt of and mostly learned just HOW BIG A DRAG those 4 stupid clubs are for declaring notrump with less than 27 points between us.
SOLUTIONS FOR: Jock McQuade    Gresham OR
PROBLEM A: 4 Notrump
PROBLEM B: 2 Diamonds
PROBLEM C: 2 HeartsP
ROBLEM D: Pass
PROBLEM E: 2 Notrump
PROBLEM F: 2 Diamonds
PROBLEM G: 3 Clubs
PROBLEM H: Heart Ace  Hey, KEN!  CASH an ace then both of us may know WHICH diamond we should have lead trick one!

« Last Edit: November 09, 2020, 03:12:00 AM by blubayou »
often it is better to beg forgiveness, than ask permission

kenberg

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Re: 2020 December - MASTER SOLVER'S CLUB
« Reply #25 on: November 09, 2020, 03:18:02 PM »
Assuming that we are playing fourth best from strength, I am thinking of leading fifth best, the !D 5.  Pard cannot be holding much and his play will not vary with whether I lead the 5 or the 7. But sometimes it might influence declarer. If he subtracts 5 from 11 he gets 6. If he sees four cards in hand and dummy that are higher than the 5 he will then assume my partner has two of them. Say AQ4 hits the dummy and declarer holds T8. He will assume I hold the K but where is the J?  Under some circumstances  he might think it worth the risk to play low, hoping I also have the J. If I convince declarer that my partner has two cards higher than the 5 he might decide the danger is too high to let the trick ride to his ten.

I doubt, on the auction, that partner has the A. But he might have the Q, he might have a stiff, and at least possibly, I might be able to mislead declarer.

I have not yet decided, as always with lead problems the situation is unclear. But I don't think the !D 5 is crazy.
Ken

wackojack

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Re: 2020 December - MASTER SOLVER'S CLUB
« Reply #26 on: November 09, 2020, 05:46:37 PM »
A Pass
I have a trick better than a minimum 1 !H opener.  However, finding extras with partner looks very uncertain particularly because of the lack of stuffing in the heart suit.  For the same reason I do not want to convert to 4  !H.

B  Double
I double I cannot risk bidding 2  !D with 19HCP.  Give partner  !S Qxxx  !H Jxx,  !D Kxx,  !C Jxx and 3N is a good bet and no way would partner take action over 2  !D.

C  2NT
I am almost sold on Blu's "unthinkable" 2  !H bid from the simulations.  But I have to stick to my original argument as I didn't do the simulations. 

D  1NT
If I were declarer in 1  !H, with a 4-1 fit (against Burns Law)  would I make 7 tricks?  It looks horribly risky for the +200 prize.  I will go for 1NT. True! If partner has a 4144 distribution, then 1N may not score as well as 2  !C or 2 !D.  The upside is that the opps may well compete to 2  !H with their 8 card fit.  Then I wield the axe.

Burn Law states: When you are declarer, the total number of trumps held by your side should be greater than the total number of trumps held by your opponents.

E   2NT
I cannot see a better bid than the "unusual".

F   2  !C
I think I just prefer this to 2  !D.  After all partner may have 3343 distribution. 2 !C leaves no doubt that this is at least a good 5 card suit. 

G    3 !C
I have 14 HCP with 6 card  !H suit.  Partner has  !S and  !D with I think 10+ HCP.  So is this enough to try 3  !C?  Or try the low road and make the conservative 2  !H rebid?  I will try the agressive 3  !C.  We can still stop short of game if partner bids 3  !D with no   !C stop. 

H   Lead A  !S
Toss a coin.  Let's look at dummy
 



 

wackojack

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Re: 2020 December - MASTER SOLVER'S CLUB
« Reply #27 on: November 09, 2020, 05:54:18 PM »
OLUTIONS FOR:
Jack Goody
Guildford
England

PROBLEM A: Pass
PROBLEM B: Double
PROBLEM C: 2 Notrump
PROBLEM D: 1 Notrump
PROBLEM E: 2 Notrump
PROBLEM F: 2 Clubs
PROBLEM G: 3 Clubs
PROBLEM H: Spade Ace

msphola

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Re: 2020 December - MASTER SOLVER'S CLUB
« Reply #28 on: November 09, 2020, 09:01:45 PM »
A. 4H
B. x
C. 2C
D. p
E. 2nt
F. 1nt
G. 2S
H. AS

jcreech

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Re: 2020 December - MASTER SOLVER'S CLUB
« Reply #29 on: November 09, 2020, 10:10:51 PM »

Burn Law states: When you are declarer, the total number of trumps held by your side should be greater than the total number of trumps held by your opponents.


I've come to appreciate David Burn's other laws as well.  YleeXotee needs to teach the second law to his partners; he cannot count on the opponents leading the wrong suit forever.  It is also known as the Rule of Eight and is similar to the well-known Rule of Eleven, and is applied in three stages:

  • During the auction, ascertain how many aces are held by your opponents.
  • Subtract this number from eight.
  • Do not bid at the level given by the answer.

But my favorite is Burn's Third Law:  You cannot make 3NT on a cross-ruff.  He also provides useful advice so you do not fall victim to failing to heed the Law.  If your side has bid and supported a major suit during the auction, but finished up in no trumps, you should put the major you were bidding on the extreme right of dummy.  This prevents thinking that the suit is trump unless there is a particularly rare form of dyslexia involved - the form that involves mentally reversing the order of suits in dummy.
A stairway to nowhere is better than no stairway at all.  -Kehlog Albran