The uncertainty of life

[kenberg]

The following came up yesterday, playing with the bots.
Matchpoints, nobody vul, you are the dealer, you hold:

8
AT
9632
AKQJ83

Presumably you open 1 , partner responds 1 , and now? It's a pretty good hand, I would not quarrel with 3 , but I settled for 2 . Now partner bid 2 .

Uncontested:
1 - 1
2 - 2

Now what? I suppose partner can make 2 so I could pass, but it seems possible there are at least 8 tricks in NT. So I tried 2NT. Pard pulls to :

1 - 1
2 - 2
2NT - 3

How pushy do I want to be? Pard presumably has six and at least three . Moreover, I have only two and the opponents have not been in the auction so he probably has few . Maybe this makes 5 ? Or maybe not? I'll try.

1 - 1
2 - 2
2NT - 3
4 .

Partner passed so I am in 4 .

I am confident that Joe agrees with 4 being passable here. My 2 !c and my 2NT were both passable, so 4 is not a forcing slam try, it's an invitation. (Joe and I had a similar situation in one of the lesson hands, hence my confidence he agrees. He might well disagree with my choosing to bid 4 !c, but I doubt he treats it as forcing.)


Now let's look at both hands:



AKT654
876
8
962


8
AT
9632
AKQJ83

Looking at both hands, where do you want to play this? 3NT would be good if they cannot take the first five tricks. If they can run five tricks then you can make +120 in 2NT. But probably +130 in 4 and this is mps. But maybe 5 ? Or maybe not?

Lunch time, I'll give the result later.

[Masse24]

I would contemplate (for a brief second) 3NT after partner's 2 , but it's not quite there.

After partner supports clubs (so now I know they run), I would take my shot and bid 3NT. Probably going down horribly, but I think it worth the risk.

[kenberg]

3NT makes.

The are 5-3 but your Rho has precisely AKQ so the suit blocks. 4 making 5 was worth 60%. 4 can be held to 10 tricks on a lead, and a trump seems right on the auction, but LHO holds KQJxx and could not resist the !h lead. So I got my 9 tops and 2 ruffs.

At some tables the opponents bid their . Since 4 is unbeatable they went on to 4 .  Thos was not doubled, at least ot usually, so even though it was set my +150 beat all of them.

I considered 3NT directly after partner's 2 . It would be unlucky for not to run. But I decided on caution with 2NT, makable even if they can cash five . When pard pulled, I decided to give up on NT and try for 5 . Would my LHO have found the setting lead against 5 ? Maybe. It's a different contract than 4 and might produce a different lead. But if pard has four for is pull to 3 then 5 would be hard to beat.

Anything but clear, I think. I congratulated the bot on his restraint. I think with 962 restraint is warranted.

[wackojack]

A bit late in replying now I know the result.  However: 
With that 7 tricks off the top hand and a Bergen valuation of 17 I would have rebid  3 .  Not sure what the bot would bid after 3  .  Presumably 3  which I would be fairly confident would  show a 6 card suit and about 7HCP.  Then I would blast 3NT in hope.