Author Topic: 2020 SEPTEMBER - MASTER SOLVER'S CLUB  (Read 4880 times)

blubayou

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Re: 2020 SEPTEMBER - MASTER SOLVER'S CLUB
« Reply #15 on: August 05, 2020, 01:11:29 PM »
For problem D:   i ran another large simulation in the deal generator  giving my partner one or two jacks and only 0-1spade ( and the opps  the remaining 16-18 pts and actual 8-9 card fit.   big suprize!!--  pard ALWAYS came through with  3-5(6) diamondss for me,  -- or 6+ hearts  and we hardly ever took a minus, Opps generally were good for 6-7 tricks in spades and occasionally even mad two,  so passing them out  was a bad move if you agree  yarborough partner will not be leaving in  our second double.   It was truly a landslide win for bidding,   and going plus if we bid 2NT  was somewhat rare and  lost to 3D+1 or 2 anyway,  when it did stagger in.     
     3 DIAMONDS,  and protest to Edgar Kaplan's ghost, if it doesn't get the 100.

The lead problem:     spade jack, diamond ace,  and the correct low club  are still  a 50-50-50%  proposition  for me, but i am switchin to:
      Jack of SPADES

Bye for this month    good luck to all
« Last Edit: August 07, 2020, 05:34:36 AM by blubayou »
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Masse24

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Re: 2020 SEPTEMBER - MASTER SOLVER'S CLUB
« Reply #16 on: August 06, 2020, 03:36:19 PM »
For problem D:   i ran another large simulation in the deal generator  giving my partner one or two jacks and only 0-1spade ( and the opps  the remaining 16-18 pts and actual 8-9 card fit.   big suprize!!--  pard ALWAYS came through with  3-5(6) diamondss for me,  -- or 6+ hearts  and we hardly ever took a minus, Opps generally were good for 6-7 tricks in spades and occasionally even mad two,  so passing them out  was a bad move if you agree  yarborough partner will not be leaving in  our second double.   It was truly a landslide win for bidding,   and going plus if we bid 2NT  was somewhat rare and  lost to 3D+1 or 2 anyway,  when it did stagger in.     
     3 DIAMONDS,  and protest to Edgar Kaplan's ghost, if it doesn't get the 100.

I like this, Jock. I like it a lot.

But I'm not sure I have the guts to try it.

I can picture west with some sort of !S KQT9 - !H xxx - !D xxxxxx - !C -  and, sitting across from partner's 1 !C open, just wants to get out of clubs. If I could double and still keep clubs in the picture, I might consider it. But won't partner key in on the red suits? Maybe not due to my failure to bid an immediate Unusual 2NT.

If west has the hand I described above, it's possible for partner to have this yarb: !S x - !H xxxxx - !D xx - !C xxxxx. Yes, I understand it's unlikely.

Tough problem. Partner has zero and with the right distribution we could have game or even slam. 

One thing I know I'm not doing is bidding 2NT. Partner has a stiff or void in spades. If I am going to declare, partner's hand is only worth something in a suit contract. Of the "I want to declare" choices that remain, I lean more towards double. Partner will put us in his best red suit, which is another worry. If partner is 4-4 in the reds, at Matchpoints doesn't he put me in hearts?

The panel opinions will be fun to read on this one!!!  ;)
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blubayou

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Re: 2020 SEPTEMBER - MASTER SOLVER'S CLUB
« Reply #17 on: August 06, 2020, 06:37:53 PM »
hi Todd :)  A small part of my calling BIDDING  (3D)  as a landslide win includes the idea that our broke pard with  6+ hearts and less than 3 diamonds will correct my 3D to hearts on his own,   but truly he seems to come up with 4 diamonds +/- one an amazing percentage of the time !


SOLUTIONS FOR:Jock McQuade Gresham OR U.S.A.
PROBLEM A: 3 Spades
PROBLEM B: 2 Notrump --- my simulation overruled my long-held "rules" [ :(
PROBLEM C: Double
PROBLEM D: 3 Diamonds --- "GIB" and the natural me  agree big-time on this bid
ROBLEM E: 3 Hearts
PROBLEM F: 2 Notrump
PROBLEM G: 3 Diamonds
PROBLEM H: Spade Jack  3-way pick-em,  to the end :( 

3 Spades   
2NT   DOUBLE   3 Diamonds   2 Hearts (!!) 2NT   3 Diamonds    Spade J[/color]

 Hey, folks!  this paste just above is Jim's  final pick  chiselled into the club's spreadsheet.   Correcting the insufficient  "2H"  in the 5th spot  to a sufficient "3"   and I'll be damned if we didn't both end up exactly matching each other.
    BEST OF LUCK ON AUGUST 11, JIM! :)
« Last Edit: August 07, 2020, 06:12:11 PM by blubayou »
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DickHy

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Re: 2020 SEPTEMBER - MASTER SOLVER'S CLUB
« Reply #18 on: August 07, 2020, 10:06:46 PM »
A.  3H.  There are two ways to 3N: a direct bid which (as Ken says) would show strong stops, AQx, AK; and an indirect 3H which (as Jim says) shows the half-stop I hold.  Partner has at most 4 cards in the majors.  With Kxx/Axx in H he can bid 3N, and we’ll be happy.  With 2-c spades (xx xx), he can bid 3S (surely worth venturing as I might have a 6-card suit) and we’ll be happy in 4S.  If he denies both with a 4m bid, we’re playing in 4S, since I already have 3 losers (2H and a S) rather than in 5m.  If partner has a GF hand with no HCP in the majors, and I hold KD, he must have AD, and AK of C.  Sure, 4S might be risky opposite a partner void in S, but it can cope with a 4-2 trump break.  Whereas if partner has (- xxx 46) 5C is only 50/50, needing a running S finesse to work.  3H looks like a bid that leaves a sensible 3N contract open as well as having a back-up 4S.

B.   2N.  N and partner have about 30 HCP between them.  Partner probably has 3 or 4 spades but didn’t overcall 1N, so that limits him to a maximum of 14 HCP?  So, at best a 20/20-ish hand.  If 1N could have been used by a passed hand as an Unusual NT, then there’s no hesitation, but here we’re forced into 3m contract.  Still, -100 is better than 1S making.  How likely is it that NS have 4S?  With 20/21 HCP N might struggle.

C.  X/4C.  Showing the 4c S suit fast looks tempting.  What do we do after partner’s 4D continuation - will he believe 5C shows a 6-card suit?  Bidding 4C then, over 4D, bidding 4S, might portray my hand more accurately.  Even then would partner think I had 6 clubs?  And let’s not forget that 4C takes away the possibility of 3N, which a negative x preserves. 

D.  pass.  Jock’s analysis is eye-opening.  Even with only 3 diamonds, a yarborough partner could give me two S ruffs, for 3 spade tricks, 1 heart (eventually, the way back to my hand after the first S ruff) and 4D tricks.  And if he has 4 or 5 diamonds, I’m making 9 tricks easily, with a 10th coming.  We’re beating 2S, so passing yields a positive score.  3D might be -50 or it could be +110/130.  I wouldn’t have thought of 3D were it not for Jock’s work, so ethically I should pass, but something to remember for another day and I’ll be pulling for 3D to gain the maximum 100.

E.  3D.  4H looks a pragmatic bid.  3H is a little too weak and 4C too strong (and has the disadvantage of probably receiving a 4S answer).  3D leaves options open (including 3N if p has a suitable club holding ATxx or QJT, say), and if p bids 3S that, I can bid 4H. 

F.  2N.  I want to show both suits quickly, because there’s a decent chance W bids 3D and partner passes.  If that happens I can then bid 5N (pick a slam). If W passes and partner chooses H, I’m going to bid 6D.  If partner chooses C, I’ll go into the tank over whether to bid 5H or 5N.  But showing both suits must be the priority.

G.  3D.

H.  JS.  This quiz would be a lot easier for me if it stopped at G.  There’s 26 HCP between W and N, but how are they split?  W hasn’t raised and N hasn’t doubled, so perhaps N has 4c hearts and 12 HCP.  He could be short in diamonds – the K is probably with W anyway – but I have no entry to give him a ruff if he has xx.  Perhaps the best way I can help is to lead the SJ across W.  If partner is short in D he can lead them after winning that trick.

blubayou

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Re: 2020 SEPTEMBER - MASTER SOLVER'S CLUB
« Reply #19 on: August 08, 2020, 02:21:30 AM »
G.  3D.

H.  JS.  This quiz would be a lot easier for me if it stopped at G.  There’s 26 HCP between W and N, but how are they split?  W hasn’t raised and N hasn’t doubled, so perhaps N has 4c hearts and 12 HCP.  He could be short in diamonds – the K is probably with W anyway – but I have no entry to give him a ruff if he has xx.  Perhaps the best way I can help is to lead the SJ across W.  If partner is short in D he can lead them after winning that trick.



 the day after (  maybe two)  an IAC  torney   put me in this pickle.... same diamond suit (had the jack as well),  same pre-emptor as declarer.  I cashe my D ace , and it lived...BUTdummy's D king  was a vital sluff for the make that we could have nullified by (either?)  black suit lead.   soI changed my vote right then  to one of the other suits though still thinking that all 3 choices  are about equal.
    pity analysis  of of problem G,  Dick.   can there be a double 100% vote for an MSC answer--  panelists and "subscribers" ?
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blubayou

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Re: 2020 SEPTEMBER - MASTER SOLVER'S CLUB
« Reply #20 on: August 08, 2020, 02:25:53 AM »

quote of my hero DickHY  above:      ...

G.  3D
H.  JS.  This quiz would be a lot easier for me if it stopped at G.  There’s 26 HCP between W and N, but how are they split?  W hasn’t raised and N hasn’t doubled, so perhaps N has 4c hearts and 12 HCP.  He could be short in diamonds – the K is probably with W anyway – but I have no entry to give him a ruff if he has xx.  Perhaps the best way I can help is to lead the SJ across W.  If partner is short in D he can lead them after winning that trick.

 
   The day after publishing(  maybe two)  an IAC  torney   put me in this pick!le.... same diamond suit (had the jack as well),  same pre-emptor as declarer.  I cashed my D ace , and it lived...BUT dummy's D king  was a vital sluff for the make that we could have nullified by either  black suit lead.  So I changed my vote right then  to one of the other suits though still thinking that all 3 choices  are about equal.
    pithy analysis  of of problem G,  Dick.   can there be a double 100% vote for an MSC answer--  panelists and "subscribers" ?
« Last Edit: August 08, 2020, 04:18:43 PM by blubayou »
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wackojack

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Re: 2020 SEPTEMBER - MASTER SOLVER'S CLUB
« Reply #21 on: August 08, 2020, 12:54:00 PM »
My choices done without studying others choices.  So may not be final   

A. 3♥
I need more info from partner and 3♥ asks for it.

B.   2NT
Partner has been silent over 1♠, therefore rule out 15+ any distribution and also 12+ with 4 hearts.  However, if we give partner say 12HCP then that would give opener 17+.  The odds favour partner not to have 4 hearts and perhaps a 4333 distribution with a range of between 11 and 14 HCP.  So I am happy to bid 2NT. 

C. Double
More chance of success than 3NT.

D. Pass
If we believe that the opps are not psyching then we can place partner with 0-2HCP.  If partner has 4+ diamonds we will get a part score there or even a lucky game.  However, if we double for take out and partner bids 3♥ I think we are doomed.  So pass and likely defeat 2♠ getting 1♠ + 1♥ +3♦ + 1♣  trick.  Modest but realistic ambition. 

E.  3♦
My hearts are too weak to bid 4♥ and I prefer 3♦ to 3♥.  Partner with 18+ can still bid 3NT.     

F. 6♥
Double just gets you into trouble. 
2NT tells partner what you have but you need to know what partner has.  If  partner makes the expected response of 3♣?  Would 5♥ now encourage partner to bid 6♥ with nothing except ♥Qx?  That is asking a lot.  Alternative is to bid 6♥ immediately and hope partner can give me the Q♥ or at lest 3 card ♣ support.  I will go for 6♥. 

G.
I prefer 2NT to 3♦ as it likely right sides the contract is the closest nearest description. 

H. J♠
J♠ looks reasonable

kenberg

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Re: 2020 SEPTEMBER - MASTER SOLVER'S CLUB
« Reply #22 on: August 09, 2020, 11:54:18 PM »




SOLVER: Kenneth Berg

Your Solutions for the September 2020 Contest
-------------------
PROBLEM A: 3 Hearts
PROBLEM B: Pass
PROBLEM C: Double
PROBLEM D: 3 Diamonds
PROBLEM E: 3 Hearts
PROBLEM F: 2 Notrump
PROBLEM G: 2 Hearts
PROBLEM H: Diamond Ace
Ken

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Re: 2020 SEPTEMBER - MASTER SOLVER'S CLUB
« Reply #23 on: August 10, 2020, 12:14:49 AM »
 
PROBLEM A: 3 Hearts
PROBLEM B: 2 Notrump
PROBLEM C: Double
PROBLEM D: 3 Diamonds
PROBLEM E: 4 Hearts
PROBLEM F: 2 Notrump
PROBLEM G: 3 Diamonds
PROBLEM H: Spade Jack

Thank you for participating in the Master Solvers Club.

jcreech

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Re: 2020 SEPTEMBER - MASTER SOLVER'S CLUB
« Reply #24 on: August 10, 2020, 02:39:21 AM »
Finally pulled the trigger.  God forgive me, but I have allowed Jock to persuade me into bidding 3 !D on Problem D.  I cannot imagine partner passing with 6 hearts after my double, so I think the chances that partner will have 4+ diamonds increases.  I was dissatisfied with passing, so I was looking for an excuse to bid anyway.  The rest did not change.

SOLUTIONS FOR:
James Creech
FREDERICKSBURG VA
U.S.A.

PROBLEM A: 3 Hearts
PROBLEM B: Pass
PROBLEM C: Double
PROBLEM D: 3 Diamonds
PROBLEM E: 4 Clubs
PROBLEM F: 2 Notrump
PROBLEM G: 3 Diamonds
PROBLEM H: Spade Jack
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Masse24

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Re: 2020 SEPTEMBER - MASTER SOLVER'S CLUB
« Reply #25 on: August 10, 2020, 03:55:23 AM »
A couple of "experimental" bids. Not totally nuts, but possibly will receive a 20. One of them--my reverse into a three card major, I've never done at the table. But this is the MSC.

PROBLEM A: 3 !S.

I think the system note to be a bit of a red herring. Although the 2 !S rebid does not promise six, in this auction, it frequently does show six. This is because of the availability to opener of both red suits—and also 2NT—after partner’s 2 !C response. No 2!D or 2!H rebid = No four-card red suit. Additionally, in checking the BWS system, it does not state that a 2NT rebid by opener must have stoppers in the unbid suits (ala Lawrence 2/1 method). But why else would the system specify that a rebid does not promise six? Based on the preceding, if I did rebid spades it would not be to “show six.” Instead, it would be to better communicate my suit quality—which I want to emphasize. Once I convey my spade strength, partner can more readily hop on the spade train with a stiff Ace.

Since I did not rebid 2 !D, partner’s 3 !D is unlikely to be a grope for possible !D strain. Instead, partner is looking for a fit for either clubs or, more likely . . . notrump. Significantly, partner failed to rebid 2NT. With some sort of 1=3=4=5, with both red suits stopped, he will usually do so. So I am not much enamored with the 3 !H bid since it partially be a grope for something partner has denied. But who knows, maybe partner has !H Kx?

I think 3 !H (seemingly a two-way shot) focuses partner’s attention more on 3NT, whereas 3 !S gives partner permission to support with the very specific holding of !S A.

I flipped on this at the last minute.

A very difficult choice between 3 !H and 3 !S.

PROBLEM B: Pass.

I went back and forth on this on several times. My nature is to be conservative, so pass was my first choice. Then I changed my mind to 2NT. Today, I’m back to pass.

It’s really a coin flip for me. One of the final factors that pushed me toward the pass is that half my HCP are in a short suit. A suit they probably own. A suit where, if they do possess the ace, it is almost certainly on my left.

A “cute” alternative would be 2 !D. If I happen to hit partner, we’re fine. If not, and he tries 2 !H, then I am forced to the 3-level (where I did not want to be) with 3 !C.

But I just can’t force myself to bid. Today.

PROBLEM C: 4 !C.

The negative double, showing four spades is staring us in the face. I believe it will be the majority solver choice. But we will not lose the spade fit if one exists. Bidding clubs first should better convey my hand shape.

PROBLEM D: Pass.

Play or defend? The opps have a fit, so we do too. Partner will not bid unless I double. Not doing that.

Although Jock’s proposed 3 !D intrigues me, it would not be my choice. If I bid, it would be to risk the double.

But I’ll take what I consider to be the sure thing—they’re going down!

I’m leading trump

 
PROBLEM E: 4 !C.

Partner should have both majors. Probably has at least four hearts. But it’s not guaranteed. Partner could be 4=3=5=1 or 4=3=4=2, or even 5=4=4=0. So I hesitate to bid 4 !H on this collection of garbage; the jump implies a fifth heart (or at least I would like it to). 3 !H is too timid as it does not show my values. 4 !D shows my values, and allows partner to bid a major---so this is certainly a possible bid (my second choice).

But I choose 4 !C. Hopefully partner can bid hearts now. Yes, it does risk partner choosing his “better” major, or longer major if 5=4, so I hope he is aware of my possible hand shape. If instead he bids 4 !S, I go to 5 !D.

PROBLEM F: 1 !H.

On a fact-finding mission. My stiff spade and diamond void make it almost impossible that this will end the auction. My goal is to find out what partner has. This has the best chance of doing so.

My first thought was to overcall 2NT, intending a subsequent jump in diamonds if possible. I’m pretty sure 2NT will be the runaway solver choice. Plenty of panel votes, too. It’s certainly safe.

After my initial gut feeling on what to overcall, I changed my thinking to a “cross-my-fingers-hope-this-makes-but-also-preemptive” 6 !H. It gives up on grand, but slams the door shut on any low-level contract exploration by the opps.

I think most of the panel will lean toward finding out as much as possible from partner. Keeping the bidding low, at least initially, may be the best way to accomplish this.

But this is such a bizarre hand . . . anything could be right.

PROBLEM G: 2 !H.

I think this is too strong for 3 !D, but some panelists will choose it anyway (Kleinman? Becker?), being right on shape, but “an underbid,” which they will mention. 2NT is also possible, and I strongly considered it. But the black suit aces, one naked, the other unsupported, are not good notrump features.

But it’s a bidder’s game.

This leaves two choices. A reverse to 2 !H, not attractive with only a three-card major, though it has the advantage of leaving the most room for partner to continue the description of his hand. Alternatively, a GF value bid of 3 !C, a jump-shift. Is it strong enough? I’ll choose the completely non-standard reverse. I’ve done this several times with a three card minor: 1 !C – 1M – 2 !D to force, but never with a three-card major.

This is waaaaaaay out there and will either score a 20 or hit big. Purists will hate this. (I can hear Hoki shaking his head disapprovingly from here.)

I’ll add that I have never done this (reverse into a 3-card major) at the table.

PROBLEM H: !D Ace.

Hoping a peek at dummy will guide my trick two choice.




SOLUTIONS FOR:
Todd Holes
Glen Ellyn IL
U.S.A.

PROBLEM A: 3 Spades
PROBLEM B: Pass
PROBLEM C: 4 Clubs
PROBLEM D: Pass
PROBLEM E: 4 Clubs
PROBLEM F: 1 Heart
PROBLEM G: 2 Hearts
PROBLEM H: Diamond Ace
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yleexotee

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Re: 2020 SEPTEMBER - MASTER SOLVER'S CLUB
« Reply #26 on: August 10, 2020, 05:33:21 AM »
Thanks for the last second reminder, Todd. and in a panic, I choose the following bids (and really wouldn't this be just like the table in BBO when I rush back from a snack break):
A: 3nt -  If I ask if he has a heart stopper with 3H, and partner doesn't have one, he will bid the dreaded 4 of a minor,which would be death. And when the hand comes down my p will throw their cards at me since I'm the one with the heart stopper.
B: 2nt - X could be right since p has likely spades and we are going to be in a crummy contract, but its too late. I submitted already
C: X - What else? show my spade holding
D: 2nt - hoping to right side this, if p has the min, she can pass and we will get the dreaded spade lead. NO TRUMP is the theme of the contest this week!
E: 4H - I had a hard time with this one. I first wanted 3h, but I can't imagine bidding that with 10 pts when I would bid it with zero. 3d, same issue. I'll take my chances
F: 2nt - I'll take the BWS hint given - but honestly, where else am I going to land but 6H, so....
G: 2nt - because I want to be consistent with my other bids! I have made a 2H bid on this hand in real life, and it hasn't led to very good results, as we tend not to find the right strain. I have tried 2H in this contest, and it also has scored poorly. AND yet, it calls to me. but I'm going to resist, showing my well known discipline at the table and try 2nt.
H: Spades are out, I don't do doubleton leads with no trump control, although this is not likely to be the opps side suit, so maybe there is less danger here
     3h is out, likely to finesse p if she has any heart honors. I would hit my own hand with a ruler if I led from AQ, so....a club lead it is. I think BWS is 2nd best. so 6C
H:6C

DrAculea

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Re: 2020 SEPTEMBER - MASTER SOLVER'S CLUB
« Reply #27 on: August 10, 2020, 06:53:45 AM »
Wladislaus Dragwlya
Castrum Sex
Romania

PROBLEM A: 3 Hearts
PROBLEM B: Double
PROBLEM C: 3 Notrump
PROBLEM D: Pass
PROBLEM E: 4 Hearts
PROBLEM F: 2 Notrump
PROBLEM G: 3 Diamonds
PROBLEM H: Spade Jack

MarilynLi

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Re: 2020 SEPTEMBER - MASTER SOLVER'S CLUB
« Reply #28 on: August 10, 2020, 09:05:42 AM »
PROBLEM A: 3 Spades.   Telling partner I don't have any minor fit and emphasizing my Spade suit seem to fit my hand. I would take 3H bid as asking for H stopper which partner is unlikely to have. I almost denied having 4 card Diamonds, partner still bid 3D, so probably partner doesn't have heart stopper to bid NT.

PROBLEM B: 2 Notrump.   Partner rates to have an opening hand with 5 card Spades. If so, bidding probably make a better score than passing 1S. Difficult decision. I really tempted to bid a minor.
                                     
PROBLEM C: Double.   Double is flexible. I can accept any of my partner's bid 3S, 3NT or 4C. If partner bids 4D, I bid 5C.

PROBLEM D: 3 Diamonds.   Bidding NT has no chance. Opp's 2S contract looks down 1 at best. Our 3D contract has good chance of making.

PROBLEM E: 3 Hearts.   I can see 4H.

PROBLEM F: 2 Notrump.   

PROBLEM G: 3 Diamonds

PROBLEM H: Spade Jack

msphola

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Re: 2020 SEPTEMBER - MASTER SOLVER'S CLUB
« Reply #29 on: August 10, 2020, 02:13:19 PM »
sept 2020
A. 3N
B. 2N
C. x
D. x
E. 4H
F. 6H
G. 3D
H. 3H