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Author Topic: T1, you're up  (Read 1809 times)

kenberg

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T1, you're up
« on: May 16, 2020, 12:56:55 PM »
Lead problems are difficult, or at least I find them a challenge. So here you are on lead. Matchpoints, nobody vul, your Rho dealt and started with 1 !S. The uncontested auction:

1 !S - 2 !C
2 !D - 3 !D
3NT - Pass

You hold:

!S AQ873
!H KJ9
!D 74
!C J86

Is it clear how you should start this? Your Lho, a robot, explains 2 !C as game forcing with biddable clubs (not further explained), and explains 3 !D as showing 4+ diamonds and 4+ clubs.  As to 3NT, this is said to show 13-20 high card points, 5 or 6 spades, 4+hearts, 4+ diamonds and (no kidding!) a probable stop in hearts.



I am not sure this is so tough, but I thought I would ask.
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jcreech

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Re: T1, you're up
« Reply #1 on: May 16, 2020, 01:23:05 PM »
At matchpoints, I am inclined to try to avoid giving away a trick on the go.  A club through strength is my first choice, with a diamond being my second.  If I felt more secure that the opponent's diamond holding were solid, then I might reverse the two leads.

I like this better as an IMP problem.

Partner cannot have much, and my best source of tricks happens to also be RHO's long suit.  My spots are good in spades, but not so good I want to lead them.  Heart sound like the weak point for the offense, but it is so hard to lead from KJ9.  First, because RHO announced a stop in the suit.  Second, because the suit is so short and strong, it may become blocked And third, partner may not understand what you are trying to do, no matter what you lead.

Nonetheless, at IMPs, I feel like hearts are the best way to defeat this contract, and partner has room for either the A (barely) or Q, but probably not both.  I think the K followed by the J may give us our best chance.
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kenberg

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Re: T1, you're up
« Reply #2 on: May 16, 2020, 03:09:17 PM »
Very reasonable, and the bot that held these cards thought the same. I was declarer. https://www.bridgebase.com/tools/handviewer.html?lin=st||pn|kenberg,~Mwest,~Mnorth,~Meast|md|1SJT962HA85DAT65CK,SAQ873HKJ9D74CJ86,SKH74DKQ92CAT9432,S54HQT632DJ83CQ75|sv|o|rh||ah|Board 11|mb|1S|an|Major suit opening -- 5+ !S; 11-21 HCP; 12-22 total points|mb|P|mb|2C|an|Forcing two over one -- 13+ HCP; biddable !C; 14+ total points; forcing to 3N|mb|P|mb|2D|an|New suit -- 4+ !D; 5+ !S; 11-21 HCP; 12-22 total points; forcing to 3N|mb|P|mb|3D|an|4+ !C; 4+ !D; 14+ total points|mb|P|mb|3N|an|4+ !D; 4- !H; 5-6 !S; 13-20 HCP; 22- total points; likely stop in !H|mb|P|mb|P|mb|P|pc|C6|pc|C2|pc|CQ|pc|CK|pc|D5|pc|D7|pc|DK|pc|D3|pc|CA|pc|C7|pc|S2|pc|C8|pc|CT|pc|C5|pc|H5|pc|CJ|pc|SA|pc|SK|pc|S5|pc|S6|pc|SQ|pc|H4|pc|S4|pc|S9|pc|HJ|pc|H7|pc|H2|pc|HA|pc|SJ|pc|S3|pc|D2|pc|H6|pc|ST|pc|S8|pc|C3|pc|H3|pc|D6|pc|D4|pc|DQ|pc|D8|pc|C9|pc|DJ|pc|H8|pc|H9|pc|C4|pc|HQ|pc|DT|pc|S7|pc|D9|pc|HT|pc|DA|pc|HK|

After the !C lead I am taking 10 tricks. It's true that 5 !D cannot be beaten (although it sometimes was) thanks to the 3-3 !c split (and the 3-2 !D split).

So it's a bit of a bidding problem also. Neither 3NT nor 5 !D is a great contract just looking at the NS cards but after the natural start of 1 !s - 2 !c we will be in one of those contracts.  My thinking with 3 NT is that since I held the !C K and the !D A, partner for his 2 !c bid either has a good enough !C holding so that we can run that suit or else he holds some values in the majors, hopefully some help in !H. But no, I had to be saved by the opponents not starting on !H.

The bots often, not always,  choose a passive lead. I gather there is a current school of thought favoring it, perhaps partially based on current enthusiasm for optimistic bidding. "Let declarer find his own 9th trick" is the idea I guess. I'm not convinced, but on this hand, at matchpoints, i can see why going passive could be appealing.

I was thinking declarer is fairly likely to be 5=3=4=1 here, as I was. If I had five !D, I expect I would have gone on in !D rather than try 3NT. And if I have only four !D then probably, over 2 !C, I would bid a four card !H suit over the 2 !C. Of course I still might be 5=2=4=2. But a 5=3=4=1 shape seems likely. 


Anyway, I got to the beatable 3NT rather than the unbeatable 5 !D but it paid off just fine. Often that's the way these things go. Bridge is not always straightforward, even in retrospect.
« Last Edit: May 16, 2020, 04:21:23 PM by kenberg »
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Ken

Masse24

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Re: T1, you're up
« Reply #3 on: May 16, 2020, 04:05:07 PM »
Late to the party . . .

I choose the !H Jack. Same logic as Jim.

I have not had good success with these "middle card" leads from three in MSC lead problems. But I do it anyway.
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kenberg

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Re: T1, you're up
« Reply #4 on: May 16, 2020, 04:22:27 PM »
Any heart will do, of course you need to get that K out of your hand on the second round.
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