Double or overcall?

[wackojack]

North NV opens 1  .  These are the East-West hands:

  QJ4        A108
  A2          KJ754
  AJ542      KQ106
  J64          10

Looking at the EW cards you can see that 6 is an excellent contract since the spade finesse will almost certainly work. The problem is what does east bid over the 1  opening bid.

Say you double:  Then sods law says that partner will respond in a number of clubs and the higher the number the more embarrassing.  Say 3 then you bid 3 , but you have to be sure that you are playing ELC (Equal level conversion).  If you are not what do you bid?  If at worst partner bids 5  and you bid 5  partner might think you have a GOSH too strong to overcall 2 . 

Say you overcall 2 :  Then West (according to BWS) cannot now bid 3 because that is not forcing.  (aside:  How I hate this rule)      So West bids 3NT and you pass.  Disaster!.

I would like to put this in my Wacko's Work-out tomorrow and get your views. Thanks

[kenberg]

Several thoughts.

1.  For ELC you not only need to agree that you areplaying it you would to agree on what converting a response to would show. I would not expect it to be on five hearts.

2. With E not knowing of his partner's strength, I see the E hand as barely worth a 2 level overcall. I think I might, but I am far from sure of it.

3. If I do overcall, I would expect W to bid on in NT. Probably 3NT, he has an opening hand and he expects a decent dummy to hit. Clubs are a worry but you can't wait for certainty.

4. 2NT, or 3NT,  from W might get them to 6 . But also it might not.  Hopefully they don't end in 3NT. Well, maybe they won'tl ead a . Or maybe they block.

5. When the opponents enter the bidding, you seldom have a slam. Yes, 6 will almost certainly by coming home here. You have three assured tricks in spades. But that is hard to discover in the auction. If E lacked the T then there would be only 2 spade winners. And N could have, in high cards, the K and the AKQ.   So S could have the Q. Although, during the bidding, W looks at his A and figures E for a suit headed by, at the very least,  KQ. So probably 6 is on even if E did not have the T, but he does.

6. BWS does say that after 2 a 3 call is non-forcing "A new-suit bid by an unpassed advancer is natural and nonforcing, constructive if an advance of a two-level overcall.". I think of that as, say, Lho opens 1 , partner overcalls 2m and I bid 2 . But, as written, it appears to include the 3 level advances as well. I would hope "constructive"  could then be construed as "highly constructive". But I also think it should be on a six card suit.  I am pretty sure that if I held the W cards and partner bid 2 I would go with some number of NT. Maybe just 2NT. That should also be highly constructive.

It's something of a magic 26 count. It would be nice to get to 6 but I would neither hang my head in shame nor figure we need  to revise our bidding methods if we didn't get there.

[wackojack]

OK Ken, could you suggest an auction where East-West adhere to BWS (shame!) and east overcalls 2  as you suggested and of course East West are sensible rational players.

1.  Can the bad 3NT be avoided?.
2.  Can the good 6 be found?

[kenberg]

I might give it to the bots later. My bet? After the 1 there will be the following from EW: 2 -2NT-3 then, perhaps,  ending in 5 .
How to continue over 3 ?  I am not so sure the bots would treat 4 as forcing. I recently defended to 4m contracts in a row against the bots. One was 4 , making exactly, the other was 4 X off 1. It could be argued that on this auction 4 could be forcing.

I don't think 6 is easy to reach.  Maybe if W jumps to 5 over 3 then  E looks at his A and his stiff and goes on to 6 . But I wouldn't bet on it. Minor suit slams are often hard to reach. Slams after the opponents open can be hard to reach. Slams on a combined 26 count can be hard to reach. I'm open for suggestions but I am a bit of a skeptic.

The bots are not playing BWS, but I think it is in the same ballpark.

[Masse24]

I see North is NV. What about E/W?

Also . . . form of scoring?

I think finding the slam is highly doubtful.

I think the auction could follow a couple of routes. It is highly dependent on whether East overcalls. It's not an auto-2 for me. It is very close. Double, BTW, would never occur to me. It's either Pass or 2 .

[kenberg]

I tried the bots. After 1 there was a 2 overcall, W bid 2NT, E raised to 3NT, W passed.  N had AKx and they took the first six tricks.


So I guess the question is: Are we smarter than a robot?

[Masse24]

I posted the BIDDING PROBLEM, Pass or 2

It's too early, but I think it likely to be close.

The suit is quite poor, and having three spades is also a negative. Kokish would pass this, Lawrence, too. I could go either way.

Assuming East passes (it’s close), I can see the auction proceeding:
(1 ) – P – (P) – 1NT
(P) – 2 – (P) – 2
(P) – 3 – (P) – ?

Now what? Maybe 3 ? Presumably asking for help (half stop) in spades? If East cooperates and bids 3NT, west would know of (or strongly suspect) the danger in clubs.

I dunno.

Another potential start assuming BWS and a 2 overcall:

(1 )– 2 – (P) – 2
( P )  – 3 – (P) – 4
(P) - ?



Could probably come up with a couple of other possible auctions. I just don't see even sniffing at the slam, not unless East can identify the diamond fit and show club shortage.

[Added] Highly contrived, but what about:

(1 ) –2 – (P) – 3
( P )  – 5 – (P) – 6

Yeah, I wouldn't bid it that way either. It doesn't pass the smell test. But that's my slam auction! 

[wackojack]

Interesting.  Thanks for all the attention.  I would be very surprised if more than 25% in bridge winners would reach for the pass card.  So maybe I will learn something new. 

Yes I see that the  suit is ragged.  That is why I considered the take-out double.  I agree that the hand has the wrong shape for double.  Slip in a heart into the diamonds then I would go for double and ELC if partner bids clubs.

If you pass:  "Assuming East passes (it’s close), I can see the auction proceeding:
(1 ) – P – (P) – 1NT
(P) – 2 – (P) – 2
(P) – 3 – (P) – ?"

Then West must surely feel that he has done enough and pass. 
 

[Masse24]

If you pass:  "Assuming East passes (it’s close), I can see the auction proceeding:
(1 ) – P – (P) – 1NT
(P) – 2 – (P) – 2
(P) – 3 – (P) – ?"

Then West must surely feel that he has done enough and pass. 
 

Pass? No, I don't think so. 

3 is typically played as GF. Since it came after a transfer, obviously 5+ in , 3 shows 4+ cards in .

Coincidentally, that is what East has.

[kenberg]

I experimented a bit more with the bots.

I had E pass over 1!S. Then W balanced with 1NT, E transferred to hearts and bid 3 . They explored a bit but still ended in 5

Here is the EW auction after the 1 from N

Pass - 1NT
2 - 2
3 - 3   (just waiting I giess)
4 - 4
4 - 5
Pass

They gave it a good try but still they did not bid the slam.


I also tried it with E overcalling 2 and then, when W bid 2NT, I had E bid 3 (as I think I would have done). They also ended in 5 .

So with a little help, having E pass the 1 or else overcall but then bid 3 over W's 2NT, they get to 5 , much better than 3NT. But even after they start a cue bidding sequence they do not reach 6 .

I think it is just tough.

[jcreech]

I cannot find the proof that I either played or kibitzed this hand, but when I first saw the problem in this thread, I was certain that I had seen it before.

My feeling was that I had the wrong shape to double, too poor of a suit to overcall, and too many points to pass.  Of the three, I liked action over inaction and found my arm twisted to overcall rather than double.

Now, for level.  Yes, I know that slam is a reasonable prospect as the cards lay, but not every slam is biddable without going through a contortion act, an act of desperation (state of the match), or a major misunderstanding.  On a hand like this, I would much rather be in a good, making game, than to find the miracle slam.  (Though I remember a partner that would automatically bid slam in a minor when 3NT was bypassed - saying you don't get any matchpoints in a minor suit game.)

I know that on the

(1 ) –2 – (P) – 3
( P )  – ?

auction, I would treat 3 as a one round force and probably bid 3NT to show my spade stop, but could see an inspired 3 to show the spade control and mild slam interest because I also have the short club.  However, I can also see partner bidding 3NT with their own spade control and squarish hand.  At this point, I should cue the club, but in practice, I am more likely to pass and hope that partner has club coverage.  Whether this escapes the club lead is another question (played with the spade opener on lead), but then if Ken hasn't said it on this hand, I am certain that it has been thought - this is an interesting hand.

[kenberg]

It seems that the only hope of avoiding a club lead in 3NT is for E to be the declarer so your auction, W bidding 3 and then E bidding 3NT,  might lead to survival.  N has K in spades and at most the Q in hearts and so most likely the AK. If N is on lead, I expect the opening lead to be the K and thn many more clubs unless N holds specifically AKQ and no fourth club. Maybe S would lead from his presumed xx. Or maybe not.

But if I overcall 2 and if partner then bids 3 I doubt very much I would bid 3NT. I have a diamond fit, a stiff club, the spade A, I  would bid 3 .

Surely W, with a somewhat balanced hand, has more reason to bid NT over 2 than E has reason to bid NT over 3 . Or so I think.

Once I imposed a pass for E on the first round, the bots found their diamond fit and got their cue bids in. This seems like their best shot.  W has heard E show a suit and a suit, cue , cue .  If W can't bid 6 after that, probably he cannot bid 6 on any sequence.  Certainly E has said all he has to say. Of course they are just bots, but bots don't like to be called "just bots".

Yep, interesting.

[Masse24]

The Bridgewinners poll is running neck and neck with those in the PASS camp just edging out those in the overcall 2 camp.

Currently:  PASS -- 14 = 52%
                 2   -- 13 = 48%

Some good players in both camps.

What would the IAC do?

[kenberg]

At jack's session yesterday there was further discussion of the would you or wouldn't you overcall, and it is interesting to see the almost even split on BW, with the would nots slightly beating the woulds. In my first response I aid "I think I might, but I am far from sure of it" and probably I would not.

At Jack's session, they played 3NT making with overtricks on a spade lead. When I gave it to the bots, they played in 3NT going down. So it seems that the first issue is how to stay out of NT. The hand makes either 4 (with an overtrick as the cards lay) or 5 . 

There was also an interesting feature in the club suit, an advertisement for upside down carding, or at least for care in carding.  I think N held AK9x and the x might have been the 7. Let's suppose that was the case. Assuming that N starts with the K and, after encouragement, the A, his next card had better be the 9, else that 9 will block the suit. And if n started with AK97, then S  needs to still be holding the 8. So at T1, S wants to signal encouragement, but not with the 8. With Q86xx the 6 should be adequately encouraging but with udca he could probably play the 2 or 3 and all is well.