Playing the suit, playing the hand

[kenberg]

Some years ago Mark Horton wrote Misplay These Hands With Me and he sometimes writes a column for the ACBL Bulletin with the same title. I thought it could be fun to follow his example.

http://tinyurl.com/yd6k59ph

Gib sees all four hands and correctly observes that my 3D can be beaten. After the cashing of the AK of spades, the hand can be made.

The play was AK of spades, A of clubs,  another club. I probably should have thrown the club K under the ace, but as the cards lie it didn't matter.

Playing a suit and playing the hand are different. I was lazy.

Playing the diamond suit:
Given the take-out double, Joe is unlikely to hold three diamonds and anyway I cannot do anything about it if he does. But he might well hold just one diamond or even none. The way to cope is to finesse twice. It's true that this will go very wrong if he holds precisely KQ tight, but if he holds either a stiff spot in diamonds or no diamonds at all, I can hold my diamond losers to one by playing in this way. When they diamonds are 2-2, I also hold my losers to 1 as long as it is not KQ tight on my left.

Ok, so what's wrong with that plan?


The hand:
I am in 3D. I have lost two spades and a club, I am going to lose at least one diamond o matter how they lie, so I have to get rid of that heart loser. Can I? Sure. But I need to plan.  Let's go back to where I win the club at T4.  Suppose I play the A and another D. The opponents are in and they attack hearts. I win, I then lead and ruff a spade, establishing a spade trick on the board, go back to the board and pitch a heart on the good spade.


I rate this as pretty obvious, I was simply careless. Of course the cards need not have been as they are, so I will look at a variant that shows why I should have dumped the club K under the Ace. Suppose Joe has a stiff spot in diamonds. Now going to the board, as i did, would hold me to one diamond  loser while playing Ace and another diamond  will create two losers. True enough, but the trick comes back so I am still only down 1.  Diamond Ace, small diamond. assume Joe shows out. I still have the entries to get to the board, ruff the spade, an return to the board and pitch the heart on the spade. The reason I should drop the club K under the Ace is that, with this hypothetical 3-1 diamond split. Joe might switch to  a heart after cashing the club A, and if he does this cuts down on my entries. I might like having that club Q as an entry on such a defense, while if Joe continues with a club at T4 then I still have both heart entries.

Bottom line: As I played it, I pretty much guarantee that I am down 1. Played correctly, I will sometimes be won 1 and sometimes make it. That's better. Especially since this is one of the times when I make it!

Another thought: Since Donna followed with the 9 and T to the first two tricks there is a fine chance that her third spade is the Q. But suppose, on a different lie of the cards, that  Joe had the AKQx of spades, Donna follows to the first two spades with spot cards, and suppose Joe still plays A and another club. I can still make 3D by playing the  Ace and another diamond, as long as diamonds are 2-2 and Joe holds four (or more) hearts. The opponents win the second diamond, they attack hearts, I win on the board, I ruff a spade and note that the Q does not fall, I run all my diamonds. Hectically this is a positional squeeze in hearts and spades, but more simply it's just a matter of running the winners and hoping for the best. The best would happen.

Summary: A little thought can be very useful. This was not a hard hand, I was just careless.  Also, go easy with what Gib says. Sure Gib says this hand can be beaten. But after the AK of spades are cashed, it can be made.

[OliverC]

Yes, King of Clubs should hit the deck about a nanosecond after North plays the 6 on general principles whether you end up needing it or not, because this hand is all about getting access to Dummy.

You clearly need North to hold Q109 here to have any chance to make this contract. Nothing else will allow you to discard the 3rd Heart from your hand.

You also need the Diamonds to be 2-2 or for one defender to have Hxx in the suit, because you don't have enough entries to Dummy to catch KQx in the North hand and to ruff out the Queen of Spades and then enjoy the Jack of Spades for a Heart discard. Catching KQx in the North hand requires a total of 4 entries to Dummy (2 for two Diamond finesses and 2 for the Spades), so that's a non-starter and you have to make an assumption that the Diamonds are either 2-2 or  the Diamonds are split Hxx-H.

If South switches to a Heart after cashing the Ace of Clubs (Clearly they ought to switch to a Heart after trick 1), then you have to ruff a 3rd round of Spades before dealing with the Diamonds, so that when the Defence force out Dummy's second Heart honour you're in a position to enjoy the Jack of Spades. If you've chucked the King of Clubs under the Ace, however, you have generated an extra entry to Dummy and now can afford to attack the Diamonds before ruffing a 3rd Spade.

[kenberg]

Often one hand has several interesting features. This one could have been made after the first two tricks and should have been made. But we can still have a  few more thoughts.

If Joe started with a 4=4=2=3  including  AKQx in spades then I can still make this if the first four tricks are AK of spades, A and another club. As noted above, I can play A and another diamond, win the heart, ruff a spade, the Q doesn't fall, I run the diamonds for the  heart/spade squeeze.

But on the cards, Joe does not have the Q so we will never know if he would have shifted to a heart with this holding.

This leads to thoughts about carding agreements. Let's crawl into South's head.  The lead of the AK of spades is natural enough, N may have a doubleton and a third round ruff might well defeat the contract, even if N holds only Jx in diamonds.  [spade, spade, spade ruffed, club back, spade ruffed with the J promoting the Q.] As the cards actually lie, after T2 I can make the contract. But we can still look at South's problems. The carding shows Donna to have started with three spades to the Q, so declarer started with two. Declarer has six diamonds on the auction, and if they are AKxxxx  then declarer  can take six diamonds, two hearts, and he can easily establish the spade Q. Nothing can be done about that. So,South  gives declarer  AJxxxx. This means that the defense has two spades, already taken, one diamond to come, and the club Ace. Is there another trick to be had somewhere?  We are giving declarer xx in spades, at most the J in hearts, and AJxxxx in diamonds. Maybe a bit thin for the 2D opening, but possible.  If declarer has three clubs then he has no heart losers and he will ruff a club on the board, so let's give him two clubs, and thus  three hearts.  If it is three hearts to the J a heart lead might not go well. Declarer might not let it ride, but then again he might.

So we cash the club Ace. If declarer started with Kxx this makes him happy, but the club was going to be ruffed anyway.  Declarer doesn't know diamonds are 2-2, but the defenders do know this.

With the club  Q in the dummy, the lead of the Ace denies holding the K. I assume the play of the club 6 was intended as count, some play that, but I would play an attitude card here. If I have the K, I want another club lead. If I don't have the K, I should let partner know.

Declarer can make this on any play at T4, but I cooperated by not doing so. Playing for an opponent to make a mistake works more often than it should.

I really like the "Misplay these hands with me"  concept, and I have plenty of hands to choose from! I may put up some more.

I'll repeat something I said about Gib and mistakes. Gib correctly shows that the cashing of the AK of spades made this unmakable hand makable. But I do not regard that as a mistake because if N held xx in spades  then this could well have been the only defensive line to beat the contract. My not making it, after this beginning, was a mistake. So Gib must be used with care in assessing errors.
 

[OliverC]

Given what South can see of the Spade suit after trick 1, I feel the 9 at trick 1 from North is fairly suggestive. East is marked with 6-card (probably) Diamonds and the 3 Diamonds in Dummy mean North probably has 2 Diamonds. There are four possibilities, therefore (assuming that NS are playing standard count and attitude):

• North started with the singleton 9 of Spades
• North started with 96, and is showing their Doubleton
• North started with Q1096 and is showing an even number
• North started with Q109 and showing 3-card Spades

Of those 4, (1) is extremely unlikely, because it gives East 4-card Spades. (2) is unlikely given that we can already place 4or 5 more cards in East's hand than in North's (the Diamonds). (3) and (4) are by far the most likely of those 4 possibilities. If it's (4) then it doesn't matter what South plays at trick 2, but if it's (3) then it is essential that South continues with a small Spade if they're going to continue the suit, or switches to another suit (Hearts the outstanding favourite, since North is marked with Club length).

The point is that playing the King of Spades at trick 2 is a serious error on South's part. Better to switch to a Heart or a Club than to risk North having started with Q109 exactly in Spades. Switching to a Heart, however, is risky in case Declarer holds the Jack and decides to let a Heart lead go round to it. It's unlikely North has as many as 7-card Clubs, because they might have bid 4 with that, and switching to a Clubs is equally going to give a needless trick away if Declarer started with Kxx.

So continuing with a small Spade is playing with the odds, I feel, and now there is no play for the contract.