Author Topic: Survivor hand  (Read 1489 times)

jcreech

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Survivor hand
« on: January 29, 2020, 05:24:42 PM »
Vul Both
Dlr S
                   !S J3
                   !H KQ542
                   !D T9875
                   !C 2

!S 98765                          !S K2
!H A93                             !H T76
!D Q6                               !D KJ4
!C T87                             !C QJ643

                   !S AQT4
                   !H J8
                   !D A32
                   !C AK95

1 !C - 1 !H
2NT - 3 !D (no description, I assumed New Minor Forcing, but looking at hand it coculd be either natural or NMF)
3 !S - 3NT (3 !S described as denying 3 herts)
P

If you look at GIB before the opening lead, there is no lead that allows this hand to make.  My opponent led the !D Q, I let it hold, now GOB says only a small heart will defeat the contract.

How things change so quickly!  What would you shift to?  I think that when faced with a diamond suit that could be set up, I would want to attack entries to that suit.  So I would shift to a heart.  Which heart?  I think it is clear to lead a small heart with plans to take the second heart.  Why?  Well, in part because declarer announced fewer than 3 hearts.  But there is another reason; if declarer lied and has three hearts, there is no way to defeat this contract.

I got lucky and LHO shifted to the !S 9; even though RHO ducked the king, I need that card with RHO.  As declarer, along with the !S K, I need the diamonds to break 3-2, and if they do, I have 9 tricks with hearts as my entry - I just have to be willing to overtake the jack.  3 spades, 1 heart, 3 diamonds and 2 clubs.  This was the path I took.

Now the result was reasonable for the event 66.7%, but given the difficulty, I was hoping for more.  So what beat me?  Four players found their way into the 5-2 heart fit, making 4 or 5 depending on the defense, but one was in 3NT making six.  How did that defense go?  It started with the !S 9, ducked in dummy and up went the K, won by declarer.  Declarer shifted to the !H J, up went the ace and lets shift to a club.  Now declarer tried the hearts while there was still a spade entry.  They worked, so cash the !S J, pitching all small cards except the !C 9.  Meanwhile RHO is pseudo squeezed and guesses wrong at the end.  On this defense, declarer is always getting a top by making either 5 or 6 depending on RHO's last pitch.
A stairway to nowhere is better than no stairway at all.  -Kehlog Albran

kenberg

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Re: Survivor hand
« Reply #1 on: January 30, 2020, 02:06:34 AM »

A small heart would probably work very well. W can figure S is unlikely to have !S AKQx, so on the small heart lead S might well win the J and lead a small !H, hoping for some variant of

                   !S J3
                   !H KQ542
                   !D T9875
                   !C 2

!S K8765                          !S 52
!H A93                             !H T76
!D Q6                               !D KJ4
!C T87                             !C QJ643

                   !S AQT4
                   !H J8
                   !D A32
                   !C AK95

The plan would be to establish hearts and then get there with a small !S toward the J. Alas, when the k is with E all possible entries to the board are gone.

On 24 point layouts we need some luck, and when the 24 are 18 in one hand, 6 in the other it gets more difficult.

Not that I really quarrel with N going on pver 2NT. If S has three hearts this right have gone well. And it did anyway.
Ken