What is partner showing?

[jcreech]

This came up yesterday in a swiss-movement pairs earlier today.  You hold with everyone vul and partner opens:

  AQ9
  J94
  T632
  K97

The auction has gone:
 1    P    1NT  2       2 is alerted as showing both majors
 3   P     3   3
 3NT   P      ?

What is your next call?  What do you know of partner's hand?

[Masse24]

I'm passing. Partner thinks he has a play for 3NT.

I'm not sure what partner has, though I guess 5=4 in the minors, maybe 5=3.  My delayed diamond support, presumably showing four, makes partner think they run. So I guess they are headed by AKQ? Club suit headed by AJ. . . maybe?

Partner's spade stopper is presumably the king? Wow, what is the opp bidding on, some sort of 7=5 freak to the Jack?

I want to see partner's hand --- should be interesting! 

[kenberg]

I had the hand shown and I also passed.

I am not at all sure that I should have, so I am interested in what others would do. Here are some of my thoughts.

A. I have a max, I might well have had less. With
  QJ9
  J94
  T632
  K97
I would also have responded 1NT and I would have corrected 3 to 3 .
With even a little more strength, I would have bid either 2 !d or 2NT on the first round.
What this means is that if I pull, I am pulling to 5 not 4 . Pulling 3NT to a perhaps passable 4m is unattractive in general but perhaps, with the weaker hand 4 would make and 3NT would not. With the extra strength, I am not going to suggest 4 as a possible contract. So it is pass or 5 , so I think. 

B. So which is it?  Well, it's a pretty flat hand. Hearts are definitely a danger. Maybe  partner has the stiff Q or even better the Qx. Or maybe not. But the opponents are advertising shape. Against 5 it might begin with, say, a club to a potential  A on my right, a club back ruffed on my left, and the A for down one. That wouldn't have happened, but it seems possible.

C. So 3NT is going down, although in fact it often made. 5 cannot be beaten, but it requires a correct choice. The clubs are the K97 as shown, opposite QT84. Lho has a 5=4=1=3 shape, we need to find the J. No doubt I would get it right. Or not. Nobody was in 5 .

D. As to the play in 3NT the opening lead was a spade. I have three spade tricks and five diamond tricks, I need one more. I won on the board and led a club. I was hoping the A was on my right and that either Rho would duck or that he would hop up and continue spades. Nope. So down 2.

E. Looking at the results, nobody was in 5 . A couple of pairs were in 4 , one making exactly, the other making 5. The successes were all in NT, one made with an overtrick.  I am not, definitely not, saying that this means passing 3NT was right. I felt later it was wrong, I should have pulled to 5 . But I can't say I am sure of that either.
 

[jcreech]

Ok, guess I was not describing my hand well.  I thought I was showing a distributional hand with 2 , then when my RHO bid 3 , I showed a willingness to compete and a spade stop, the implication being that I have no heart stop, or I would have raised NT immediately.  I thought the best I could have in hearts is xx and a bit more likely x or stiff honor.

My actual holding was:
  K64
  7
  AKQJ7
  QT84

I felt like my bidding might show more than I had, but the quality of the diamond suit, if partner was near the top of his range, game might be there.  As it was, my best choice was to make a penalty double.  The 3 bid boxed the opponents into a down 3 situation.  In spades, we get six tricks and possibly more.  In hearts we are limited to five tricks, but they are one level higher.

Partner made the same choice as Todd.  For nine tricks, partner tried to sneak a club through and the defense made the heart switch to take six tricks.

The overcaller was insane though.  The cuebid was not entirely off the wall, but to bid 3 was with JT852 KQ83 5 A53.  To force partner to choose at that level and vulnerability without more shape or HCPs is asking for trouble.  Unfortunately, I was not up to making him pay for the transgression.

[kenberg]

There are a lot of questions. Often things are not clear in auctions. With my four diamonds it seemed right to convert 3 to 3 . But I could have bid 3 . With a stop you would likely bid 3NT, I would think the 3 is a spade stop and a maximal hand for my original 1NT. That call might get us to 5 , since you do not have a stop.

Setting them three tricks in 3 might require some precise defense, but we should get them down two w/o too much trouble; Two clubs, three spades and a . If we manage to ruff a heart with a spade spot then yes, it's three. But I doubt they will be playing in 3 X. S has shown both majors. He is only 5-4 but still N has five hearts and two spades, I expect he will bid 4 over the double of 3 . We get two spades, two clubs and a diamond for down 2. But then maybe we play 5 . Well, maybe.

So 5 makes, at least if I choose correctly in clubs. 3NT shouldn't make but sometimes did. Perhaps others have some thoughts. I don't think it is all that certain who should have done what.

[jcreech]

I agree.  When the opponents show two suits, and you have limited your hand, a cue bid is telling not asking.  That is, 3 by Ken would be showing a spade stop, and looking at a stiff heart I would know to avoid NT. 

Back when I chose to bid 3 , I think that  a 2 bid by me is more ambiguous (and I did think about bidding that instead).  With some partners, I play that as telling again (trying for 3NT, but concerned now the opponents have entered the fray).  With others, I play that it is a more general strength showing bid (showing 18-20 and probably a spade control since I had 2 available also).

As for 5 , Ken, I have no doubt you would guess the J, but I would be playing the hand.  A much more random possibility (though if they were to double, I definitely like my chances - lol).

[kenberg]

I favor 3 by you, as you did,  rather than 2 after that 2 call. My hand could be quite weak, but I, not having a four card major, presumably have at least four cards in at least one minor.

But that brings up still another question. With my hand I have four diamonds and so I bid 3 . But I could just as well had four clubs and only three diamonds. If I have only 6 or 7 highs, do I pass 3 ? Your hand could be fairly strong. My thinking is that with a sufficiently ugly hand I could pass. I would seldom pass, but I think on some hands it should be possible. With a weak hand and four diamonds, I of course bid 3 . With a weak hand and four clubs, well, my hand is now a little better with the 4-4 fit, but I think passing should be an option. Do I really want to raise clubs with xxx / Qxx / Jxx / Kxxx?   With a bit more, I can invite with 4 , but this seems to be too little. Might miss a game, but unlikely.