Author Topic: Would you want to be in this slam?  (Read 52 times)

jcreech

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Would you want to be in this slam?
« on: January 14, 2020, 10:47:27 PM »
This hand rotated came up in yesterday's Survivor tourney (Dlr: S, Vul: Both):

 !S KQT2
 !H Q876
 !D AQ7
 !C 97


 !S
 !H AT53
 !D 83
 !C AKQT432
1 !C     2 !S      X        P
3 !H       P       4 !H     P
6 !H       P                        (X was negative showing hearts)

The first question, is would you want to be in this slam?

The second question is, how would you play this in slam?  The lead was the !S A.

Masse24

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Re: Would you want to be in this slam?
« Reply #1 on: January 14, 2020, 11:37:03 PM »
Yes, I am fine with being in this slam.

I ruff trick one (obviously) since bringing in the trump suit for no losers is close to zero chance. I now have two spade winners to jettison my losing diamond. The club suit is my source of tricks.

We have a lot of clubs, so I'm very worried about a ruff. That influences how I play the trump suit, which is to lay down the Ace, then low toward dummy's Queen. This is the moment of truth. I can duck or I can cover whatever LHO plays. It's a guess.

Should be a bit better than 50% I think.
« Last Edit: January 14, 2020, 11:41:18 PM by Masse24 »
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kenberg

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Re: Would you want to be in this slam?
« Reply #2 on: January 16, 2020, 12:10:37 PM »
I do not at all wish to be in this slam. You did not ask about the auction, but I don't agree with it. North's negative double pretty much forces me to bid at least 3 !H whenever I have four of them. To my mind, that means that 3 !H is not forcing. If I have a hand strong enough to be in 4 !H opposite the X I would bid 4 !H. But, on the auction shown, I am making a passable 3 !H call and then, when partner, perhaps stretching, bids 4 !H I raise to 6 !H. So my bidding amounts to: Partner, you can pass 3 !H and we will play in a partscore, or you can raise 3 !H to 4 !H and then I will bid the slam, but under no circumstances can we play 4 !H.

If the !D k is offside I am going down if a !D is led at T1. Certainly W should think a bit about why on earth S could jump to 6 !H. A spade void seems likely, so a !D lead is not silly. After the favorable opening lead I still have to develop hearts and with that 2 !S bid on my left I am not optimistic.

Added: I thought a little more over morning coffee. Perhaps S sees the 3 !H as forcing? I guess a pair could play that fast arrival is on ere, opener with four hearts and a minimum bids 4 !H, not 3 !H,  over the X. But this would mean that 3 !H becomes an impossible contract to reach. since 3 !H is forcing. And this means that N cannot make a negative X over 2 !S unless s/he is prepared to hear 4 !H from partner on a minimum. n the given N hand that would be ok but it seems to me we want to be able to make a negative double even on a bit less than N has. Anyway, if  the X shows four hearts and enough strength to play in 4, ie if we are playing fast arrival, then 3 !H is forcing and the raise to 4 !H shows a min.

But I think 3 !H is passable, the raise to 4 !H shows enough to play in 4, and, if so, then I think the bid of 3 !H followed by 6 !H is a way of precluding playing in 4 !H.

Now about the play.
 I agree that the !S A helped us out. Helped a lot. I also agree that ruffs are a serious danger. So after ruffing the spade I lay down the !H A and a small !H and hope. Maybe W held Kx or Jx and the play is easy. If the first three hearts I see are the 2 and 4 under the A and the 9 when I lead the small !H then I need W to still hold either the K or the J, meaning E started with Jx or Kx. I suppose I play the Q. If hearts are 4-1, this hand will be a problem.


« Last Edit: January 16, 2020, 03:46:28 PM by kenberg »
Ken

Masse24

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Re: Would you want to be in this slam?
« Reply #3 on: January 16, 2020, 02:22:01 PM »
You did not ask about the auction, but I don't agree with it.

Neither did I when I saw it. 3 !H is too timid.

I would bid 4 !H , or if feeling especially frisky, make a stronger slam move with 3 !S .

So, either:
1. 1 !C - (2 !S) - X - (P)
    4 !H -   (P)   - ??

or

2. 1 !C - (2 !S) -   X - (P)
    3 !S -   (P)    -  3NT - (P)
    4 !H -   (P)    -  ??           

But I think I'm still okay with being in the slam. But maybe not. If morning coffee is a requirement, I've not had any, so this is a "no-caffeine" assessment.
“Kindness is the only service that will stand the storm of life and not wash out. It will wear well and will be remembered long after the prism of politeness or the complexion of courtesy has faded away.” Abraham Lincoln

jcreech

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Re: Would you want to be in this slam?
« Reply #4 on: January 16, 2020, 02:55:17 PM »
Ken,

I largely agree with your analysis (largely, because I haven't taken the same time you have to analyze the possibilities and I want an out if there is something missed).  I would only like being in this slam if the opponents lead the !S A (as they did). 

Once the !S A is led, then I like my chances, though maybe a little less than 50% on Todd's line, maybe a bit higher if I lead small to the Q first planning to finesse the T next.

In the event, two other bid and made slam - one in hearts, one in clubs.  Both took Todd's line when it came to the hearts.

As Ken surmises, the slam is scuttled on a diamond lead, and without the pitches on the spades 6 !H has little chance (and on the lay of the cards, no chance).

I was thinking that a potentially useful treatment for a hand like this is to have a jump to 4 !C show the sort of hand that partner has - I have 4 hearts and a source of tricks in clubs - sort of along the lines of a 1 !C - 1 !H; 4 !C auction.  I do not remember anyone suggesting something like this, but if agreed upon, could make sense.

LHO (leader)
 !S AJ9543
 !H K9
 !D T92
 !C 86

RHO
 !S 876
 !H J42
 !D KJ654
 !C J5

Masse24

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Re: Would you want to be in this slam?
« Reply #5 on: January 16, 2020, 06:27:12 PM »
Once the !S A is led, then I like my chances, though maybe a little less than 50% on Todd's line, maybe a bit higher if I lead small to the Q first planning to finesse the T next.

I stand corrected. My assessment was shortsighted as to my chances for this slam. I now do not want to be in this slam.

That said, as Jim states above, I like [love] my chances once the !S A is led (how nice of the opps to be so helpful!).

The jump to 4 !C is an interesting choice and one I had not considered. It would of course need to be discussed and the parameters of that jump agreed to. For me that bid means something just slightly different; a hand with a "source of tricks" in the jump suit, that wants to be in game, but with no controls in the other two suits. What Mike Lawrence suggests in his 2/1 book (if I remember correctly). I think opener's second bid could be one of a few viable choices and is quite interesting. I'll post to Bridgewinners. 

Oh . . . almost an afterthought but it occurred to me earlier, I think the auction to the slam can be quite informative here and the lead would be influenced accordingly. Depending on the meaning of 3 !S by opener, or 4 !C by opener, or 4 !H by opener . . . don't all of those demand a !D lead? Maybe not.

« Last Edit: January 16, 2020, 06:54:13 PM by Masse24 »
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kenberg

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Re: Would you want to be in this slam?
« Reply #6 on: Yesterday at 01:33:38 AM »
It seems to me that over the X the most descriptive bid, for better or worse, is 3S. I wouldn't say this guarantees a heart fit, but the plan is then to next bid 4 !H. This should show a had that can envision playing in hearts at a level higher than 4 !H.   At any rate it happened at some table.

Now this might well discourage a helpful spade lead but I think a jump to 6 !H is going to always discourage a spade lead, or should.  Declarer initially expects a spade lead based on the 2 !S call and is not going to be bidding 6 !H on !S xx. Maybe on x, but he would want to be pretty sure of everything else.

So after the X, then 3 !S by S and N naturally bids 3NT. S now bids 4 !H. N looks at his spades and thinks they will be really useful if the opening lead is the !S A but there is no guarantee of that and so I think he passes. By bidding 3 !S and then 4 !H S has encouraged slam and show a spade control. No doubt (when N looks at is hand) the control is shortness, probably a void. I think N then passes. Todd already mentioned the 3 !S earlier. It's really plenty, maybe more than plenty, to bid 3 !S and then 4 !H

Now back to the play. W presumably has six spades. This is going to be a bit tough if W has a stiff heart unless it is the K. So assume 3-2. With six spades on the left, probably W is more likely to have two hearts than three. We are not getting to dummy twice, so I think we start hearts from hand with the A. It turns out to work, as I said I have now looked up the hand, but I think it is best. We can handle Hx on the left, and Hxx on the left if we guess right (I am guessing Kxx if it comes to that guess, which on this hand it does not).

It's hard to really pin down odds here because there are so many possible inferences from the auction and from the lead. But I did guess laying down the A before I had looked at the hands. I am more than willing to acknowledge that the fact that it worked does not prove all that much.
« Last Edit: Yesterday at 02:20:12 AM by kenberg »
Ken