Author Topic: Would you double and what is your lead?  (Read 1041 times)

jcreech

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Would you double and what is your lead?
« on: November 26, 2019, 01:40:28 PM »
This hand came up in side table in IAC recently.  It was the hand that doubled and was on lead. No one is vul.

!S A72
!H K95
!D T863
!C T64

  P -   1 !H - 1 !S - 2 !H
2 !S - 3 !H -  P   -   P
3 !S  - P    -   P    -   X
  P  -   P   -    P

At IMPs, I am very careful about doubling someone into game.  I like to be certain that the contract is going down two under normal circumstances, so that I will be unlikely to have a surprise make.  So I would not have made this double.  But if someone is willing, I would like to know their reasoning.  To me, this is a matchpoint double (protecting a partscore) not an IMP double.

If I do double, I want to have a clear idea of what my lead will be.  I am not certain that this hand has a clear lead on the auction, but I do have a lead in mind.  At the table, I would not know whether the lead would be successful until after the hand is completed.  Since I know, I will not share for a few days - as I share the rest of the hand.

kenberg

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Re: Would you double and what is your lead?
« Reply #1 on: November 26, 2019, 02:22:40 PM »
I gather this is imps. Say they are not vul. If we beat it one we get +100 instead of +50. If they make it we get -530 instead of -140.  I'm not doubling.

I am not so sure I double at mps either. Partner's 3 !H showed an unwillingness to sell to 2 !S and, especially at mps, he would often be unwilling to sell to 2 !S. He has an opening hand and maybe, maybe, a bit more. The 3 !H was not an invitation to 4 !H, he would have bid 3m if he could envision a game opposite an upper end 2 !H call from me. I can expect a hand where he did not want to sell to 2 !S and that's about all I can expect.

I am leading a spade. A and another, or small? Small, I think, but either could be right. Or wrong.

Maybe more thoughts later, I need to head out for a while.
« Last Edit: November 26, 2019, 06:45:52 PM by kenberg »
Ken

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Re: Would you double and what is your lead?
« Reply #2 on: November 26, 2019, 02:40:12 PM »
I agree with Ken, I would not double. Regardless of the form of scoring. Nothing about this hand (or auction) indicates a double is warranted.

That said, the only suits to lead are trump and hearts. I would choose the !H King. My second choice would be a small !S .
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wackojack

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Re: Would you double and what is your lead?
« Reply #3 on: November 26, 2019, 03:31:23 PM »
Agree no double at any form of scoring and I would lead K !H

kenberg

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Re: Would you double and what is your lead?
« Reply #4 on: November 27, 2019, 12:18:20 AM »
 Here is a plausible, and a bit optimistic, layout. Can we beat 3 !S?      That might depend on what some of the x's are and what line declarer takes.  And on how we defend. It's close.  Can we make 3 !H?  It appears so.

                   xx
                   AQxxxx
                   Ax
                   KJx

QTx                                KJxxx
x                                    Jxx
KJxxx                             Qx
Qxxx                              Axx

                  A72
                  K95
                  T863
                  T64



I just made this up, I have not really thought through just how best to beat 3 !S.
           
« Last Edit: November 27, 2019, 02:16:23 AM by kenberg »
Ken

jcreech

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Re: Would you double and what is your lead?
« Reply #5 on: November 27, 2019, 02:56:46 AM »
          !S QJ4
          !H 8
          !D AJ742
          !C Q973

!S A72           !S 98
!H K95           !H AJT43
!D T863          !D Q5
!C T64            !C AKJ2

          !S KT653
          !H Q762
          !D K9
          !C 85

Not bad rendition Ken.  I've rotated this to put my hand in the South position. 

If I had held the hand in question, I would have led a small spade, hoping the we would get in with a heart, then two more rounds of spades.  As it turns out, almost any lead still gives the defense a chance to set 3 !S.  Unfortunately for the defense, one of those two cards was led.  Against me, the !H 5 was led - the other unfortunate choice is the 9.  Without the double, I might have made the same lead.

It also looks like you can make 4 !H double dummy (and some may make it based on the inferences from the bidding).And that is the rest of the story.

Hand corrected per Ken.
« Last Edit: November 27, 2019, 03:19:52 PM by jcreech »

kenberg

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Re: Would you double and what is your lead?
« Reply #6 on: November 27, 2019, 12:32:14 PM »
 

          !S QJ4
          !H 8
          !D AJ742
          !C Q973

!S A72           !S 98
!H K95           !H AJT43
!D T863          !D Q5
!C T64            !C AKJ2

          !S KT653
          !H Q762
          !D K9
          !C 85

4 !H does seem to be there but  even on the auction it seems unlikely.  If I am looking at it right the play would be: Win the spade, come to hand with a club, run the !H J without first cashing the !H A. That's not the craziest line in the world but it seems unlikely. But not crazy.
« Last Edit: December 02, 2019, 03:06:44 AM by kenberg »
Ken