I played the last few hands of yesterday's creature feature. An uncontested auction began 1
- 1
- 1NT. I was the 1
bidder and held something like 8 highs, five hearts, four clubs and I think it was 2-2 in
/
. As I choose my next call, what do I know about partner's hand? My actual choice was 2
, partner turned up with three hearts, that's great but it was not certain. Rebidding 2
was a possibility I considered. Must partner have four clubs? Well, he has to have four of something, he clearly does not have four hearts and he would not open 1
on a three card holding of he had four diamonds. But could he have four spades and three cards in each of the other suits? That depends on who you are playing with. But probably the answer is yes, that could be. BWS recommends 1NT on a 4=3=3=3 holding. But I have had partners who think otherwise.
There is also the question of what partner would make of a 2
rebid. Natural? Well, maybe. Some play 2-way new minor forcing. I was playing with Joe and in the discussion afterward he mentioned that he and I had agreed to play ordinary NMF. I was pretty sure that was so but not positive. Still there is the issue that he could be 4=3=3=3. I am pretty sure Joe would rebid 1NT with that holding, and then I want to pay in 2
.
My point here, applicable in many auctions, is that we often want to make inferences on an auction but even in simple auctions the correct inference will depend on agreements, often agreements about bids that were not made. What can I make out of the fact partner did not bid 1
over my 1
? If he would always rebid 1
whenever he held four, then I can infer from 1NT that partner has four, or maybe five, clubs and a 2
bid sounds right.
There are arguments for and against skipping over the four card spade suit to rebid 1NT when 4 triple 3. I'm ok with either.
Also, what about 2 way NMF? The value of this also depends on other agreements. Suppose partner opens 1
and my shape is 2=4=6=1 with modest values. Do I bid 1
or 1
? BWS says 1
, they skip over
with five but not with six, but strict Walshites bid 1
. Now suppose 1
- 1
- 1NT, and I hold six diamonds. Clearly the hand belongs in
. How do I get there? In regular NMF, 2
is artificial. With 2-way, I bid 2
, a bid that forces partner to bid 2
. Then, depending on values, I pass or make an invitational raise to 3
. (With game forcing values I would have responded 1
, later reversing into
). Incidentally, in Goren the auction 1
- 1
- 1NT -2
was passable, basically a weak bid, pass or correct. But Goren has been dead for quite a while.
Note that when playing 2 way, I can then get out in 2
but I cannot get out in 2
since 2
forces pard to bid 2
. In 2 way, the auction 1
- 1
- 1NT - 3
is weak (bidding 2
and then, over the forced 2
, bidding 3
is invit). But I hardly want to bid 3
on four cards unless I am very sure partner also has four, and I am not. You pay your money and you take your choice, as the old carnival expression goes.
And, of course, I am only giving my understanding of 2 way.
This is what I meant by the "If-Then" in the title. Inferences require assumptions, and assumptions can be wrong.
IAC is having an Indy later today that I will try to play in. For an Indy, simple is best. The fewer artificial bids the better, it's easier to make reasonable inferences.
