Hoki session yesterday

[wackojack]

  AJ1083
  97
  Q93
  J97

  65
  AK63
  K1062
  KQ2

Bidding with opps silent: 1 NT-2  -2  -2NT-pass. Lead 4 . Plan the play.

I will start the ball rolling with some questions.
1. Do you play the 9 or the 7  from dummy and do you think it is important?
2. Assuming you play the 9  and RHO plays the J, do you duck or take with K?  Is it important you find out ASAP whether or not the lead is from 4 or 5 or possibly even 3?
3.  Assuming you do not duck and take with K  or you duck the J  and RHO continues with Q  and you now take with the K .
4. Which suit do you play?  to 10? or  2 to 9? or 2 to Q? or other?  In each case what high card placements and suit breaks are you hoping for? 

 

 

[kenberg]

This si tricky in a variety of ways.  Did I play this? I don't think so but I recently played a hand where dummy hit with 97 in the suit that was led at T1.


Can we bring in the spades? With good defense, it would take some good luck. We might hope for Qxx on one side, Kxx on the other. But they have heard the auction, and while possibly declarer has three spades and he decided to play 2NT anyway, they will assume that declarer has a two card holding. If declarer had Kx, he would presumably play K and then small to the J, so when declarer leads a small spade the defenders will play him for xx. So even if the suit splits Kxx-Qxx, it will go small spade from declarer, honor from Lho. Rho is holding Hxx so ducking will be wrong, declarer must take the A and lead the J. Rho wins, the suit is established, assuming the Hxx-Hxx split, but declarer has to get to it. Via diamonds, I suppose. Maybe yes, maybe no. And if the spades are Hx on the left, H9xx on the right? Again Lho hops up with the honor on the first round, declarer takes the A and leads the J, and  the suit is not even getting established. So it's going to be tough to both establish spades and get to them.

But maybe the opponents won't find this defense? Well, maybe. Against good defense, bringing in spades is a long shot, but maybe the chances are better in a casual game. Of course there are two shots at getting to the board if the actually establish, lead a to the 9, if that forces the A we have our entry, if it loses to the J we can still try leading small to the Q. But this takes time.

I am inclined to try for three tricks with a small to the 9. Either Jx or Jxx on the left will suffice. We would still need to establish two tricks but then 1+2+3+2=8

I think we need to have some plan for 8 tricks before deciding whether to duck the first heart.

It's a bit tricky whether we should play the 7 or the 9 at T1 but let's assume, as suggested, it goes 4-9-J. Ducking seems right to me, so suppose I do and then Rho produces the Q. What to make of that? It would be good to know what Lho would lead from T854 and from T8542. And, for that matter, what would he lead from T84? Leading the 8 would have been very helpful to declarer.

I think I duck the first and take the second, then lead the 2, playing the 9 if Lho follows low. If are 4-3 I don't mind losing one , two , one and one , that's five for them. If are 5-2, then, assuming the play at T3 is 2, going 2-small-9-A, Rho has no more and I am fine with anything else he wishes to play.

[kenberg]

I am interested in how the hands actually were here, and also in what others think. If I go after spades I cannot afford to lose two spades, two hearts, one diamonds and a club,  so I had better be able to establish spades losing only one. I also cannot afford to lose one spade, two hearts, two diamonds and one club. So I am thinking spades will not work well, hence the diamonds. But that's hardly a great chance either.

Also, now that we know Rho started with QJ (and maybe more hearts) I am curious as to just which hearts  Lho started with. I suppose Rho would have played the T rather than the J if he had it, so Lho started with at least the T and the 4. What else? Many would have led the 8 from T85 which would have been great for declarer since it would go 8-9-J-K. Later, Rho gets in and leads through, Lho takes his T but now declarer has A6 and Qho has the Q and nothing else higher than the 6. So they cannot continue hearts.

It's an interesting hand.  I still think that I take the second and then lead a small toward the 9, but does that work?

[wackojack]

OK Ken, you lead a small diamond to the 9 and it holds.  Your certain tricks then are 2 +2 + 2 +1  =7 tricks.  So to make another you either need to make 2 spade tricks or 3 diamond tricks.  Unless there is an end play you will only make 3 diamond tricks if they break 3-3 or I think 87 doubleton on your right.  Thus it appears to me that your chance of making 3 diamond tricks by force is about 20%. 

Now consider the spade suit.  If you can make 2 spade tricks then you only need 2 diamond tricks.  Say you first test spades.  If KQ is onside (25% chance) then then the contract is yours.  If the hons are split and divide 3-3, (18% chance) giving you now a 43% chance.  Can you improve on this? 

Say you finesse successfully a 2nd time in spades then with your A  as entry you now try diamonds and finesse the 9.  If this works you have 2  +2  + 2  +2  = 8 tricks.  And your chance of making now comes up to ??  Trying to work this out:  If KQ onside (25%) you make.  If KQ offside (25%) chance you are down.  With split hons (50%) the chance of 3-3 is 18%.  Add that to your 25% and you get a 43% chance of making.   Exaclly the same playing for  3-3. 

You may have endplay chances too either way.  Does this make sense?

[kenberg]

Back to the beginning:


With yours:
If I understand you correctly, you are winning the first heart.
You win the first heart, you play a small spade, the Q appears on your left. Next you do? Or the K appears on your left, either one.

With mine:
If the 9 holds it might not be clear just what to do but I would at least give some weight to exactly which cards were playing and what their carding is. People do not always give correct count and I agree it is often best not to, but often, early in the hand, when declarer is trying to establish a suit, a defender will give correct count. Also, the A might still be on my right so I have to worry about that. It seems the J is definitely on my left if the 9 holds.   I might well come back to my hand with a club and lead another .

[wackojack]

I was with you on winning the 2nd heart Ken.  Then I was putting the case for playing a spade towards the AJ10 and if it loses repeating the finesse when I get in again with a heart.  Then if the 2nd spade finesse works, I was trying to compare chances of turning my attention to diamonds and finessing the 9 with continuing with spades hoping for a 3-3 break.  I concluded that they were the same.  So as you point out watch carefully their carding.  If both agree that might give you a good indication.

[kenberg]

Well, I am now thinking spades are the best bet. Skip the stuff below. And the suspense is killing me. What line works?





But you still have to decide what to do when, after the low spade is led, you see H on your left. I am assuming that Lho is up for playing the H from Hxx and from Hx. It's not that hard a play. He assumes that declarer was dealt xx since from Kx or Qx he starts with the high one. If so, then if he plays low on the first spade, clearly declarer brings in the suit unless pard ducks as well. Which he should, but it gives up an early spade trick. So he hops up. Declarer cannot duck, since then Lho gets that H and later Rho gets the other. So declarer puts up the A and, presumably, leads the J from board. Rho takes his H and leads a third . That's if declarer is lucky. If Rho doesn't have a third then Lho started with five and can cash three if he holds a minor A. So assume Rho leads a third , Lho takes it and cashes another.

Are spades established? Maybe, maybe not. The T is good, but if Rho, started with H9xx then only the T is good and, worse, now the opponents can cash the 9 along with their hearts and two aces. And we have to get to the spades.  There are a lot of things that can go wrong. I have no idea what the best percentage line is.

[wackojack]

Let us say that you play on diamonds to start with and eschew the spades. 

1. So duck one round of hearts.
2. Take the next round.
3. Play small diamond to the 9 and it holds. 
4. Club to your King which holds. 
5.  to Q which holds.
The diamond position was AJ75 onside.
So what now?   

[kenberg]

Probably I go down. That's the quick answer. And probably the right one.

I would still be wondering about the 4. Based on the play of the J at T1 I am assigning the T to my Rho. What was played by Lho at T2?
I had been assuming, at T1, that the 4 was fourth best. Of course it could be from T42 i their agreement is to lead the 4 from that. or it could be from T84 or T54 if they lead low from that holding (assuming they would lead the suit at all). The bots would lead the 4 from T84 and T54, the 2 from T42. But humans have their own ideas.

Probably I stick with the original thought that the 4 was from a four, or five, card suit. Can I actually make this if Lho started with Hx / T854 / AJxx / xxx? Maybe so, although I might need help.  Let's see. The first five tricks have been duck a , take a , ot the 9, back to hand, to the J. I have taken four tricks and lost one. The cards now  are (by assumption)

                      AJT83
                      none
                      3
                      jx
 
Hx                                      Hxxx
T8                                       2
AJ                                       none         
xx                                        Axx


                    xx
                    Ax
                    Kx
                    Qx



Edited Monday morning.

I am on the board. Suppose I lead   small toward my hand. Suppose  Rho nicely takes the A and leads his third .  Now I think I am home. I take the , my top   and then  lead a to the A and another . At this point I have taken one spade, two hearts, two diamonds and two clubs. Who wins the ? If it is Lho then he is on lead holding one and the AJ. I will be getting a . If it is Rho, he has one and two left. Moreover, Lho no longer has a high since he started with only two. It doesn't help for Rho, when in with the A,  tp play another . I can cash my high creating the same end position. So he has to duck the when I lead it from the board after I take the Q.  But this doesn't work for them either.

Now I have 5 tricks. I take the A, that's 6 tricks, and lead a to the J. Rho is in and has nothing but black cards. He can cash the remaining but then leads a . No matter whether he leads low or leads the H, I can force him to give me the A and another .

I think this works, but it's 11:30 [Well, it was last night]  so I will check it tomorrow {I diid, and made a change] . Of course it requires the distribution to be just right. If Lho signals an even number of !c on the first round of that suit I might re-think this. But not tonight.

I checked this line with the double dummy checker and, given the assumption that W started with Hx / T854 / AJxx / xxx, it works.

Fwiw: The error I made in last night's write-up was in saying that after I am on the board w the J I lead the J and, if Rho ducks, I come to my hand w a . In the light of day I realized that after two rounds of have been played I no longer have a on the board! So I need to lead the small from the boar, preserving transportation. Presumably, playing live, I would notice there are no more hearts on the board. I hope so! And last night I might have looked at the diagram!

[kenberg]

Here is another feature of the hand. Again suppose that W started with Hx / T854 / AJxx / xxx and suppopse it starts as we have duscussed: ducked, another , taken, ti the 9 holding, back  to hand, small .

W could go up with the A. Yes, I now have two more good but I have a transportation problem. After W goes up with the A he plays a small and !E ducks. I can cash the on the board but there is no way back to my hand. and !W still has a .

It still comes in, I think.
 

This is a very interesting hand for both declarer and for the defense.

[wackojack]

Yes I have not had time to go through all you have said in detail but it looks like it makes with your line when the spade hons split. 
https://www.bridgebase.com/tools/handviewer.html?sn=hoki&s=SK4HT854DAJ75C865&wn=hoki&w=SAJT83H97DQ93CJ97&nn=hoki&n=SQ972HQJ2D84CAT43&en=hoki&e=S65HAK63DKT62CKQ2&d=e&v=b&b=10&a=2NPPP&p=H4H9HJHKD2D5D9D4C7C3CQC5D6D7DQD8CJC4C2C6H7HQH3H5CACKC8C9CTH6S2S3SKS5S4S8H2HAH8D3S6DJSAS7STSQDTHTS9DKDASJ
You are endplaying LHO

I hope the above comes out.  When I was playing it at the table this was the layout. 
https://www.bridgebase.com/tools/handviewer.html?sn=hoki&s=S42HT854DAJ75C865&wn=hoki&w=SAJT83H97DQ93CJ97&nn=hoki&n=SKQ97HQJ2D84CAT43&en=hoki&e=S65HAK63DKT62CKQ2&d=e&v=b&b=10&a=2NPPP&p=H4H9HJHKD2D5D9D4C7C3CQC5D6D7DQD8CJC4C2C6H7HQH3H5CACKC8C9CTH6S2S3SKS5S4S8H2HAH8D3S6DJSAS7STSQDTHTS9DKDASJ

You can still make with this layout the way you played before cashing the A provided that you know the the KQxx is offside.  Then you can endplay RHO. 

Sad to say I played on spades first and went 2 off when both hons were offside.  Had they been split I think I will make with an endplay too.

No more time left I am playing in this eve tourney in 4 mins.

[kenberg]

It's a hand with a lot of variations. Further, not everyone would defend in the same way. There are a lot of choices.