Author Topic: Master Solvers Club - October 2019  (Read 12029 times)

Masse24

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Master Solvers Club - October 2019
« on: August 10, 2019, 02:55:51 PM »
OCTOBER MSC

Deadline: September 10 at 9:00 a.m. (ET)

Submit your October responses here: https://www.bridgeworld.com/indexphp.php?page=/pages/msc/mastersolversmainpage.html

BWS 2017 System: https://www.bridgeworld.com/indexphp.php?page=/pages/readingroom/bws/bwscompletesystem.html

BWS 2017 POLLS, CHANGES AND ADDITIONS: https://www.bridgeworld.com/indexphp.php?page=/pages/readingroom/bws/bwspolls2017.html 
  • (This page shows (1) the results of the panelist polls that were used to adjust the system; and (2) the changes in and the additions to Bridge World Standard 2001 (BWS2001) that were made.
       In the listings of the questions and answers, an asterisk indicates the BWS2001 agreement; the proportion of the expert votes for each item, rounded to the nearest percent, is shown in brackets
    .)

Good Luck!

P.S. Panel answers and scores are usually published the same day as the deadline.
« Last Edit: September 11, 2019, 06:32:10 PM by Masse24 »
“Kindness is the only service that will stand the storm of life and not wash out. It will wear well and will be remembered long after the prism of politeness or the complexion of courtesy has faded away.” Abraham Lincoln

blubayou

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Re: Master Solvers Club - October 2019
« Reply #1 on: August 21, 2019, 09:40:32 AM »
A >>    pass   
  B>>   5D !...  to bid 3NT,  then 5D later  is called 'raising your own preempt'.  To expect to be dummy to 3NT making bunches  is kid stuff
C>>   pass. this is the lead problem--right?
D>>   2D   perfect, as i didn't open 2D , except for those heart stoppers
E>>   2H.   there must be game somewhere,  and we just missed it
F>>   4S    I bid now instead of waiting since this gives best chnce for pard to come in his club suit  OR bid 4NT to ask which minor.
            Double 4H then double again 4S  is fun,as partner can leave it in...hmmm
G>>   3nt.  I can just smell that Jxx hearts over there, making this the right-siding  call.   
H>>   H king.  i really havn't a clue about the opening lead  seldom do,  right, Shawn?
« Last Edit: August 24, 2019, 01:47:47 AM by blubayou »
often it is better to beg forgiveness, than ask permission

jcreech

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Re: Master Solvers Club - October 2019
« Reply #2 on: August 21, 2019, 11:54:58 AM »
Initial thoughts:

A.   MPs makes for odd decisions.  I am torn between passing for penalty (might not be willing to at IMPs as being too close and doubling them into a game) and trotting out 3NT.  Leaning toward the penalty pass at this time.
B.   My initial inclination is to bid 5 !D.  But if I could count on partner having one diamond, it might be worth trying a gambling 3NT. By my quick calculations, partner is likely to have at least a singleton about 75% of the time, but missing the Q, the chances of making, not risking the finesse, drops the chance of running the suit down to close to 50%.  Now I have to figure out whether the panel will be willing to take the 3NT chance as well.
C.   I think I have too many points and too many hearts for partner to find a reopening double.  The question is to decide between which will score better – passing 2S and hoping to set the contract undoubled better than we can score in our contract, or show my values by overcalling 2NT.  Right now, I think it would be better to bid 2NT – the only lie is having a 2nd club, otherwise it is a great description of my hand.
D.   I need to check whether Drury applies after an overcall with BWS, otherwise, I think I am good enough to cue.  Some of the values are soft, so I may step it down to a simple raise by the time I submit.
E.   Who knows what is the right contract?  I have extras, a probable Moysian fit available in hearts, nice presumably fitting cards in diamonds, not no semblance of a spade stop for NT.  2 !S should convey that sort of uncertainty and get partner to make a sensible rebid.
F.   Part 1:  I think it is right to double to get the defense off to a good start.  Part 2:  I am torn between bidding 5 !D and pass.  I think it may be right to pass with there being a trump stack behind the NT bidder and the diamond honors ill placed.
G.  (Must have accidently skipped - I relettered to show this MIA answer)
H.   !C 10.  I may change my mind, it is still early, but I think it may be right to get my best suit started, even though it is dummy’s1st bid as well.  A small spade may be more right, hoping partner will have something to help  get it going.  A !D may also be right as the unbid suit, but for now, I’d like to think of my holding as one or two entries to get the spades going.
« Last Edit: September 07, 2019, 11:43:06 AM by jcreech »
A stairway to nowhere is better than no stairway at all.  -Kehlog Albran

Masse24

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Re: Master Solvers Club - October 2019
« Reply #3 on: August 21, 2019, 08:39:41 PM »
PROBLEM B:  3NT.

I had to check to see if Gambling 3NT was part of BWS. It is.

Partner will not pass with a !D void, so I can eliminate that concern. Operating under that assumption (that partner has one or more !D ), what is the percentage the suit runs? I'm not a math person, so I leave it to our PhD in math to calculate. My rough estimate: well over 90%.

So for me 3NT. The question still gnawing at me, is the preemptive value of 5 !D better than the slim shot at the "wrong-sided" 3NT?
“Kindness is the only service that will stand the storm of life and not wash out. It will wear well and will be remembered long after the prism of politeness or the complexion of courtesy has faded away.” Abraham Lincoln

Masse24

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Re: Master Solvers Club - October 2019
« Reply #4 on: August 21, 2019, 10:57:16 PM »
Early Guesses:

PROBLEM A:  4 !C

PROBLEM B:  3NT. Partner will not pass with a !D void, so I can eliminate that concern. See my earlier post.

Will I bid on if needed? Yes.

PROBLEM C:  2NT. I’m not overcalling 3 !H with that suit quality and only five of them. 

PROBLEM D:  2 !D. Just enough not to pass. Though not forcing, I like for this to show a tolerance for partner’s suit. Preferably Hx, which is coincidentally what I have. Not sure if this is part of the system. I’ll need to check.

PROBLEM E:  3 !H. Yes, really.
[Added] Second choice, which is still in the running, would be 3 !C. Range is correct, but short a !C. Maybe it's better to lie about minor suit length rather than major suit length? 2 !S was the first thing that entered my mind, a simple, unspecified forcing bid. But then what after partner's forced bid?

PROBLEM F: X. Then Pass. However . . . there’s a lot to be said for simply passing to begin with, keeping the trump split and other suits quiet.

PROBLEM G:  3 !D. Forcing.

PROBLEM H: !C 6. Dummy should be exactly 4=3=1=5 (or very close) with around 16 HCP. Opps have a 4-3 !H fit, so even though partner has five !H, I prefer to hide my King, so will refrain from leading it. Pard has no more than around 6 HCP, so I don’t expect to be able to “set up” his !H. Basically this is a “I don’t know what else” lead.
« Last Edit: August 22, 2019, 08:52:39 PM by Masse24 »
“Kindness is the only service that will stand the storm of life and not wash out. It will wear well and will be remembered long after the prism of politeness or the complexion of courtesy has faded away.” Abraham Lincoln

toasterln

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Re: Master Solvers Club - October 2019
« Reply #5 on: August 28, 2019, 03:01:54 PM »
I feel like a kindergartner doing these problems.  However, I feel they have real value..  Wish more of the IAC players would participate.  .....maybe then I would not be embarrassed at my poor decisions.   ;)
A.  Pass   
B.  5D 
C.  2N     Although I considered Dbl as the start of lebensohl sequence
D.  1N     Although 2 D has some appeal.
E.   2S     Forcing more info from partner
F.  Dbl  then Dbl again
G.  3N   Imps we want to bid Vul Game:  Vul partner could have an outside card.
H.  4S  Why is the opening lead problem always the most difficult?  4S seems to be the least expensive ...I hope.

blubayou

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Re: Master Solvers Club - October 2019
« Reply #6 on: August 31, 2019, 10:23:40 PM »
 I am getting more comfortable with my lead problem's  !H king.  responder who rebid 1NT was offered delayed support and declined.  I am betting he is unhappy to be in 2NT but of course has most of his stuff in diamonds--  his partner's very short suit.   Still,  I'm ready to take my usual 60  on problem H  :( ???
often it is better to beg forgiveness, than ask permission

bAbsG

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Re: Master Solvers Club - October 2019
« Reply #7 on: September 06, 2019, 02:13:33 PM »

SOLVER: Babs Giesbrecht
       Qualicum Beach BC
       Canada

Your Solutions for the October 2019 Contest 
-------------------
PROBLEM A: 4 Clubs
PROBLEM B: 3 Notrump    (was tempted to just pass then bid diamonds until the cows come home)
PROBLEM C: 2 Notrump
PROBLEM D: 2 Diamonds
PROBLEM E: 2 Clubs
PROBLEM F: Double | 5 Diamonds
PROBLEM G: 3 Diamonds
PROBLEM H: Club 10

kenberg

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Re: Master Solvers Club - October 2019
« Reply #8 on: September 06, 2019, 02:32:35 PM »
PROBLEM B:  3NT.

I had to check to see if Gambling 3NT was part of BWS. It is.

Partner will not pass with a !D void, so I can eliminate that concern. Operating under that assumption (that partner has one or more !D ), what is the percentage the suit runs? I'm not a math person, so I leave it to our PhD in math to calculate. My rough estimate: well over 90%.

So for me 3NT. The question still gnawing at me, is the preemptive value of 5 !D better than the slim shot at the "wrong-sided" 3NT?

I have not calculated it exactly but yes, over 90%. The suit runs if partner has at least two diamonds, it runs if he has the stiff Q, and he pulls if he has a void. So for this to go wrong partner has to have a stiff spot and one of the opponents the remaining three cards.

A rough calculation: There are three choices for the spot card in pard's hand, and then we could put the other three cards  either to the left or to the right. So that's six ways to place the cards for failure. How many ways can we place the cards? We could modify the question: Given that partner leaves 3NT in, how many ways can we place the cards?

If we place, say, the !D 3 on our left then this makes it a little less likely that the !D 6 will be on our left because we have already taken up a space. Let's first ignore that for simplicity. Then each of the four missing cards can be placed in any of three hands, so that's 3^4 = 81 ways to place the four cards. If we decide to eliminate those cases where pard has a void, then to count those we have to place each of the four cards in one of the two opponent's hands, that can be done in 2^4=16 ways. So this gives 81-16-65 ways such that pard won't pull and the suit won't run.

So we estimate a probability of 6/65 that partner will leave it in and still the suit won't run. That's a little under 10%, closer to 9%, making the chance of success when it is left in as more than 90%  as Todd suggests.

But this is still off a bit in a the pessimistic direction because of the "packing effect" mentioned above: initially there are 13 places in each unseen hand to place the !D 3, but if we assume it is, say, on our left they there are only 12 spots to place the 6 on our left. This means that it's somewhat more likely the suit will be distributed somewhat more evenly. A familiar example is when declarer and dummy hold 11 card in a suit missing the K and a spot. Each of the two missing cards can be place to the left or to the right, so there are four ways to place them There are two ways for the K to fall, either stiff on the left or stiff on the right. But still the chances are 52%, not 50%, that the K will fall. Once we imagine a spot card placed on the left, there is more room for the K to be placed on the right. Note that the change in odds is not minuscule, it goes up from 50% to 52%. And so it would be a noticeable amount  here if we calculated it out. So yes, if partner leaves 3NT in, the chances of the !D running should be well over 90%.

Or so I calculate it. These calculations are always a little prone to hidden traps. But this seems right.
« Last Edit: September 06, 2019, 02:46:41 PM by kenberg »
Ken

wackojack

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Re: Master Solvers Club - October 2019
« Reply #9 on: September 06, 2019, 06:06:51 PM »
PROBLEM A
This one looks like toss a coin for the answer.  What does partner have for the re-opening double?
 !S AJ10x
 !H KQJ10x
 !D x
 !C KQx
3N has no chance.  4 !C has chances but could fall apart. 3 !S has better chances and scores more.  4 !H with a 4-2  !H break also has good chances. 

or does partner have something like this?
 !S Axxx
 !H AQJ10x
 !D x
 !C KQx

Assuming K  !H onside then 3NT looks good with either the  !H or clubs coming in for at least 9 tricks. 

Of course partner could have more and unlikely to have less than the two 16 point hands suggested.  So I rule out 4  !C.  I rule out pass because 3  !D could make opposite hand 1. 
 I rule out 3  !S because it is a poor contract opposite hand 2. 

What about 3 !H?  That could be passed and with 2 aces I want to be in game.  So we are left with 4  !H hoping for hand 1 or better, or 3NT hoping for hand 2 or better.  My 9 !H I feel is an important card so I will go for 4  !H

No time for the other problems.  I hope they are not as guesswork as this one.   
 

Masse24

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Re: Master Solvers Club - October 2019
« Reply #10 on: September 07, 2019, 10:45:07 AM »
I've got my mind made up on all but one, PROBLEM E.

Here it is:
!S 965 !H AT6 !D AQ !C AKT86

Auction:
1C - (1 !S) - X - (P)
??

Question: Do you consider this a game-force hand? Or more precisely, close enough to stretch?
“Kindness is the only service that will stand the storm of life and not wash out. It will wear well and will be remembered long after the prism of politeness or the complexion of courtesy has faded away.” Abraham Lincoln

jcreech

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Re: Master Solvers Club - October 2019
« Reply #11 on: September 07, 2019, 11:12:06 AM »
I've got my mind made up on all but one, PROBLEM E.

Here it is:
!S 965 !H AT6 !D AQ !C AKT86

Auction:
1C - (1 !S) - X - (P)
??
.
Question: Do you consider this a game-force hand? Or more precisely, close enough to stretch?

Partner should have a minimum of 7 HCPs to make a negative double that makes partner rebid at the 2 level, so with a combined 24 HCPs, I am willing to make a game force.  However, my definition of a game force is either we are defending a doubled contract or have bid to 3NT or higher.  This definition allows for playing in four of a minor.
A stairway to nowhere is better than no stairway at all.  -Kehlog Albran

Masse24

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Re: Master Solvers Club - October 2019
« Reply #12 on: September 07, 2019, 11:57:30 AM »
I think it’s close, but being right on the cusp it’s the least lie. Although only 17 HCP, the KnR on it is 18.3 If it’s a game force (or close enough), then 2 !S is clear . . . at least for me.

If the auction continues 1 !C – (1 !S) – X – (P) – 2 !S – (P) – 3 !C – (P) – 3 !H . . . then 3 !H cannot be passed, since a cue-bid and a rebid of responder’s suit is a game-force.

Kokish, in describing this 2 !S bid in the March 2019 MSC wrote, “Sometimes, overbidding a bit can be justified if it helps to locate the best strain for game.”

The very similar March hand was: !S A762 !H KJ4 !D A7532 !C A

The auction started the same, with the question hinging—like here—on opener’s rebid. The surprising plurality vote was for 3 !H , which left me scratching my head. But the hands are different, the primary disparity as I see it is the stiff !C A in the March hand. That makes the jump to 3 !H there more attractive since ruffs are more likely. Here, that !D Q mucks up the works for any intended ruffs. A flaw, at least as far as a jump to 3 !H .

This month’s hand is a point stronger, making the game-force less distasteful. It’s certainly the best way to discover our best strain. If I squint, I can see it.

2 !S for me.  :)
“Kindness is the only service that will stand the storm of life and not wash out. It will wear well and will be remembered long after the prism of politeness or the complexion of courtesy has faded away.” Abraham Lincoln

jcreech

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Re: Master Solvers Club - October 2019
« Reply #13 on: September 07, 2019, 12:55:56 PM »
Needed to pull the trigger.  The movers take everything away on Monday, internet will be down for three days, and I did not want this hanging over my head along with everything else.

SOLUTIONS FOR:
James Creech
Fredericksburg VA
U.S.A

PROBLEM A: 4 Clubs - the reality is, partner asked me to bid a suit, so I will bid my best suit
PROBLEM B: 3 Notrump - my fear of 3NT was partner passing with a void but stoppers elsewhere - fear was unrealistic - I deny anything outside
PROBLEM C: 2 Notrump - showed my values
PROBLEM D: 2 Diamonds - most flexible bid available - constructive, lead directing, leaves room for partner to ask or tell at two level
PROBLEM E: 2 Spades - again most flexible bid available and shows my values
PROBLEM F: Double | Pass - I disagree with Todd that this says anything about spades, but it does say something about hearts
PROBLEM G: 3 Diamonds - not good enough for 4 !C (two places to play) or double and bid my own suit, not a good bid in IAC, but I think it is right for BW
PROBLEM H: Club 10 - opening a club often doesn't say much about the suit, other than they don't have 5 of a major or 4 diamonds; I think I should start my best suit
A stairway to nowhere is better than no stairway at all.  -Kehlog Albran

kenberg

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Re: Master Solvers Club - October 2019
« Reply #14 on: September 07, 2019, 06:01:03 PM »
Regarding problem E. I suppose that opener was planning, if it began 1 !C - Pass - 1M - Pass to rebid 2NT. I can understand that, it certainly is a very good 17 count. Once he has done this, I think he is stuck with now bidding 2 !S.  He might well wish he had opened 1NT but he didn't.  I can't say I much like 2 !S, but that's why it's a problem hand.

Added: Probably there is no way out but it does seem to raise the question as to whether, after 2 !S, the continuation 3 !D - 3 !H should really be game forcing. It means that after 1 !C - (1 !S) - X - (Pass) opener has  limited options. If he has a hand that is too strong for a 1NT opener and too weak for a 2NT opener, and he does not have four hearts, he simply cannot know if the hand belongs in game. It would not be crazy for the continuation over 2 !S of 3 !D  -3 !H to show exactly this situation. A strong hand, too strong for 1NT opening, but not sure whether we belong in game and if so where. Responder might be better placed to decide on that.
« Last Edit: September 07, 2019, 08:01:43 PM by kenberg »
Ken