Author Topic: Dare to declare 20/05/19 B6  (Read 3946 times)

wackojack

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Dare to declare 20/05/19 B6
« on: May 20, 2019, 10:55:20 PM »
West  !S A109 ,  !H Q54,  !D AK2,  !C J753 

 East !S K2,  !H AK5,  !D QJ53,  !C AQ842

You are East in 6  !C with no intervention.  Lead is Q  !S

How do you play the clubs? 
Run jack?
Play 3 to Queen?
Play 3 to East's 8 if North plays low?
Play 3 to Q if North plays 10 or 9?
Play 3 to Ace if North plays 10 or 9?

I dont think it is obvious

kenberg

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Re: Dare to declare 20/05/19 B6
« Reply #1 on: May 21, 2019, 09:26:17 PM »
Ah ha! I was going nuts trying to see why the endplay would not work. It's because declarer has 14 cards, a 2=3=4=5 shape.  Just as I was going into the shower, it struck me as to why the endplay would not work, I will now erase some earlier stuff.

Let's assume I have one fewer !D. So a 2=3=3=5 shape. Win T1 in hand and lead a small !S. If Lho shows out, play the J, losing to the K (it will not profit Rho to duck). We now go to the board twice to lead toward the AQ8x.

If it is Lho with the four clubs,, when I lead the small !C from hand  Lho will split his T/9, I will play the J and Rho will show out. (If Lho plays low on my small !C I still play the J since, if it loses to the K, I can claim).  When Rho shows out, I go for an endplay in !C. I need Lho to have started with 4=3=3=3. After I win the !C J and Rho shows out, I cash the high !S, ruff a !S, cash the reds, lead a !C, ducking. Rho is in and has only Kx in clubs. I claim the hand.


So if !C are 2-2 or 3-1 there is no problem, if Rho holds all four this line will work, and if Lho holds all four we need a bit of luck, namely that he be 4=3=3=3, but if so then we still bring it in.
« Last Edit: May 22, 2019, 04:39:50 PM by kenberg »
Ken

wackojack

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Re: Dare to declare 20/05/19 B6
« Reply #2 on: May 22, 2019, 06:18:26 PM »
Yes stupid me for giving east 14 cards.  I now see why running the J !C is the correct play as it will succeed if North has all 4 remaining clubs.  If instead East plays the 3 and LHO does not split her honours from K1096 or from 1096 i.e follows with the 6, then play of the 8 succeeds.  However  I would look very stupid if trumps split 2-2 with RHO having K10 or K9 when I take a 2nd finesse and it loses to the King.  I failed to see this when I wrote the questions in my first post.   :o

kenberg

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Re: Dare to declare 20/05/19 B6
« Reply #3 on: May 22, 2019, 08:11:37 PM »
Yes, running the J is better than leading the 3 from the board.

But I think that the best is to win the first trick in hand and lead the 2  from hand.  You will still make if Rho has all four clubs. Lho shows out, you play the J, losing to the K. You have entries to the board in !D and !H to lead twice toward the AQ8x. I am assuming that declarer has only three diamonds, so you can get to the board this way unless !D or !H are 7-0.

Only if the !D  or !H is ruffed will this go wrong, and what you get for that is a possible make even if it is  Lho who has all four clubs. So leading small from hand slightly increases  the danger of a ruff if Rho has all four clubs but slightly increases the chance of making when Lho has all four clubs. I think the increased chance is larger than the decrease but I am not positive. For one thing, if you win  T1 on the board and lead the J, then you still need to get back to the board once since after J-K-A-pitch you cannot just lay down the Q.

So I think I would start with a small spade from hand.
Ken

wackojack

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Re: Dare to declare 20/05/19 B6
« Reply #4 on: May 23, 2019, 10:30:27 AM »
Only if the !D  or !H is ruffed will this go wrong, and what you get for that is a possible make even if it is  Lho who has all four clubs. So leading small from hand slightly increases  the danger of a ruff if Rho has all four clubs but slightly increases the chance of making when Lho has all four clubs.

If LHO happens to have all 4 clubs  (!C K1096), are you suggesting that he might make the bad mistake of playing the 9 or 10?  I know opponents can do very silly things and in looking for the best play we are comparing very low probabilities.  If there is no extra risk of a ruff when trumps divide in a more normal manner, then I suppose we should do it.   

kenberg

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Re: Dare to declare 20/05/19 B6
« Reply #5 on: May 23, 2019, 11:12:14 AM »
Doesn't matter which club he plays (well, the K would be nice, but as to the T,9,6, no matter). If he plays the 6 I still (unless I have peeked in his hand) play the J from the board, Rho shows out, I cash a high spade, ruff a spade, cash the reds, he is now down to !C KT9 and nothing else, I have AQx and nothing else, I lead the x, he wins, he leads into my AQ.


The reason I was having trouble with this, back before I realized that I had 14 cards, was that after this line of play I still had three clubs and a diamond in my hand, so it seemed that Lho must have three clubs and a something, so when I put him in he would get out with the something else and later get his !C K. I kept thinking this line should work, but clearly it was not working. I had to move away from the computer before it struck me "Hey, let's count my cards here, something is wrong". It had to work but it seemed not to be working. There had to bean explanation. There was.
Ken

wackojack

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Re: Dare to declare 20/05/19 B6
« Reply #6 on: May 23, 2019, 05:40:07 PM »
Yes cunning end play.  However, this is not certain to succeed is it?  Give LHO a doubleton in one of the red suits, say 4324 then he can ruff the 3rd diamond and get off lead with a spade.  Conceding a ruff/discard does no damage to him.  Nevertheless, I see that your line gives you an extra chance over running the J.   

kenberg

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Re: Dare to declare 20/05/19 B6
« Reply #7 on: May 23, 2019, 06:00:04 PM »
Very definitely not certain to succeed. As near as I can tell, the only chance of bringing in the slam if Lho has all four clubs is that the shape be precisely 4=3=3=3. And I am pretty sure that to make it work, declarer must start with a small club from hand. This way Lho must duck with the K. It would not be worthwhile to try this if it seriously endangered the chance of success when Rho has all four clubs, but the increase in danger is slight. When Lho has the clubs, the J will be taken by the K and then we have to get to the board twice to lead toward the AQ8x. After Rho wins the !C at T2, he will have to help by putting us on the board (or by helpfully leading a !C). Say he leads a !D, we win on the board and lead a small !C, Rho must split because we knw he has them all, we cover, now we must get back to the board to repeat. Probably go back with a !H. This could go wrong but I think the chance is pretty good for one trip to the board.

All in all this slight increase in danger when the clubs lie to the right is worth it to give us this shot at making it when the clubs all lie to the left.

Added: I decided to look up the actual hands.
                         
                                    !S: 543                     
                                    !H: 7632
                                    !D: 64
                                    !C: KT96


!S:  AT9                                                      !S: K2
!H: Q54                                                      !H: AKT
!D: AK2                                                      !D: QJ5
!C: J753                                                     !C: AQ842

                                   !S: QJ876               
                                   !H: J98
                                   !D: T9873       
                                   !C: void         

As you can see, you can make the hand either by winning the opening lead of the !S Q on the board and then leading the !C J, or you cam make the hand by winning the opening lead in hand and leading a small !C to the J. Now suppose the cards lie, instead, as



                         
                                    !S: 76543                     
                                    !H: 7632
                                    !D: 7643
                                    !C:


!S:  AT9                                                      !S: K2
!H: Q54                                                      !H: AKT
!D: AK2                                                      !D: QJ5
!C: J753                                                     !C: AQ842

                                   !S: QJ8               
                                   !H: J98
                                   !D: T98   
                                   !C: KT96   

With this lie, you go down if you win on the opening !S lead board and then play the !C J, but you still make the hand if you let the !S run to your hand and lead a small !C toward the J.


It is true that this second line introduces a modest danger that if all four clubs are on the right, and we win the first trick in hand, we have to get back to the board twice.Declarer will put us back there the first time, then we finesse, then we have to get back a second time. Presumably Rho, if he holds a void in one of the red suits, will lead the other after he takes the !C J. We win on the board, take the finesse, attempt to go back in the other red, and it gets ruffed. That's a danger, yes, but I think that going with this slight danger is worth it in order to make the contract when, instead of one of the res suits splitting 7-0, Lho has a 3=3=3=4 shape. That seems more likely than a 7-0 split in one of the reds. Among other things, if Lho had seven hearts to the JT9 I think the opening lead would have been the 1H J. And perhaps the !D T from seven diamonds to the T98 although in fact he did have close to that. And maybe there would have been a double to indicate a void. Further, if Rho does have a red suit void you are not out of the woods when you win T1 on the board and lead the !C J covered by the K.  Anyway, I think it's best to let the !S ride to hand and lead a small !C
« Last Edit: May 28, 2019, 10:34:48 AM by kenberg »
Ken