Author Topic: Hand 8, dare to declare last week  (Read 4502 times)

wackojack

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Hand 8, dare to declare last week
« on: March 27, 2019, 06:56:10 PM »
I do not know where to look for the given solution, but believe it is very complex.   

http://www.bridgebase.com/tools/handviewer.html?bbo=y&myhand=M-2534619509-1553540499

It is easy to see that if both minor suits split 3-2 then 13 tricks are available.  If one of the minor suits does not split 3-2, then 12 tricks are available.  Then can we guard against both minor suits splitting 4-1?   So there are 4 scenarios:   

1. 4 clubs and diamonds with South. 
You can play AK  !D and discover the bad news.  Then you can play clubs any way you like discover South has 4 and so ruff a club in dummy for the extra trick.

2. North has 4 clubs and South 4 diamonds.
Here you have to be very careful. You must play a small club to dummy's King and then when South shows out you are in control.  If South ruffs you can play your low club and then later make your long club.  If South discards then you play to Dummy's A spades and lead another club.  So inevitably make your 12th  trick.

3. North has 4 clubs and South 4 diamonds.  If you play as in 2, then South will ruff your 2nd club and you are left with a club loser.  Even if you initially only draw one round of diamonds you are still left with a club loser.  There is one last ray of hope.  And that is you may be able to squeeze North for your 12th.  This only works if North has all the top cards in the majors. I.e   !H KQJ and  !S QJ10(x) 

4. 4 Clubs and diamonds with North.  This is the same as 3 except looks the least likely layout. 

Conclusion:  I believe the recommended play was to play AK  !D first and then low to K  !C in dummy which does guard against layouts against 1 and 2.  With layouts 3 and 4 it does look like you play the same to the first 4 tricks and when you discover the bad news you can still make provided North has all the major suit honours.

I think quite a difficult hand

kenberg

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Re: Hand 8, dare to declare last week
« Reply #1 on: March 28, 2019, 11:56:06 AM »

I was declarer on this one. I had a blind spot and I didn't make it. As soon as N shows out of !D the line of play is clear and works as long as !C are no worse than 4-1 in either direction. !C to the A  and a small !C. If everyone follows, then !C are running so only lose a !D. If S follows but N shows out, cash another !C and ruff the fourth !C, not caring if it is overruffed.  As the cards lie, it is S that shows out. If he ruffs, win the return, draw trump and claim. If not back to the board in !S and another small !C, again S cannot profitable ruff. So now there are no more !C on the board so ruff a !C, again not caring if it is overruffed.   This is all clear, I just didn't do it.

As you note, the situation gets trickier if it is N that holds the four !D, S showing out on the second round. As I recall, the auction was given and N had overcalled 1 !H. It's still possible that his shape is 0=5=4=4 and if so then we could just play the top three !C and ruff the fourth.  And of course if he has two or three clubs then everything is fine. It's when he has one !C that it gets tricky. If his shape is 3=5=4=1 I am not so sure we can get home, even if his spades are QJx. Say we play !S K, then small to the A and ruff a !S establishing the T. It's not enough. We still have a !C loser, even if we go to the board with the !C K and toss a !C on the !S T.  If n is 2=6=4=1 with !S QJ tight, we can do it. !S K, small to A, play the !S T throwing a !C. If N ruffs then we can win the return in hand and play off both !D for a !S -!C squeeze against S. If N declines to ruff the !S we now lead a trump from the board and then give him his trump, again rectifying the count for the squeeze against S.  But in the 3=5=4=1 shape for N I am not seeing how this works, even in the QJx case, even of all the top !H are with N.  Say you plan to go with the squeeze. Maybe duck a !D so that you can run the rest of them . N wins and plays a !H that you ruff. You could now cash the last !D, throwing a !C from the board,  trying for a squeeze but the count is not rectified. N has a small !H to pitch, S holds onto his !C.  I don't see a way to deal with this.
Ken

wackojack

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Re: Hand 8, dare to declare last week
« Reply #2 on: March 29, 2019, 10:11:10 AM »
Thanks Ken for a very thorough look at the possibilities.  Yes I mistakenly thought there would be a squeeze against North if the clubs and diamonds were swapped in the North South hands and North held all the boss cards in the majors.  QJ9, KQJ53, J1052, 10.  I forgot that the count was not rectified as you now have to play the hand like a no trump contract. 

On some of these DARE hands I do wonder if the recommended line does cover all realistic possibilities.  It is interesting to look at the probabilities.  The chance of  both minors NOT breaking 3-2 is about 10%.  There are 4 possible 4-4 minor suit distributions and since the chance of 0544 with North can be discounted we come down to 3 possible.  Of those 3, the contract can make with 2 of them.
 i.e. When North has both and when North has 4 clubs and South 4 diamonds.  So of those 10% of hands the expert gets another 6.7%. 

In summary:  Non expert can expect 90% success rate whereas the thinking expert can expect 97% success rate.   

kenberg

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Re: Hand 8, dare to declare last week
« Reply #3 on: March 29, 2019, 12:31:36 PM »
I mentioned that I had a blind spot when I played, and went down, on this deal. The blind spot was that I also got overly enamored with squeeze possibilities. After it turns out that  N is the one with four !D I just needed to think a bit about the implications of that. This is often the situation in bridge. Focus on the right thing and the solution is clear enough, focus on the wrong thing and oops. As I recall, after I discovered the 4-1 split in !D I cashed another !D, after which I can no longer make the hand. It's essential that I lead twice toward my hand in !C and then, after N correctly refuses to ruff, that I be able to ruff the fourth round of !C on the board.


I agree that often on these Dare hands there is more to be said than just how to make the hand with the cards as they are.  I think this is not a complaint about the hands but rather an opportunity. We need to look back at hands with the attitude that just because we made it doesn't mean that we played it right, and just because we went down doesn't mean that we played it wrong. board 1 from the same Dare set is an example. I made it,but still...

http://tinyurl.com/y4vu4soo


As the cards lie, the hand makes if you take the first !C and lead back another !C; If they take their !C you toss a blocking !D and take the rest. But of course the cards do not have to lie the way that they do. If the !C are 6-2  you go set playing this way. And, since we have 10 !D between hand and dummy, possibly the !D Q is stiff in which case we can just run the !D. So I took the A at T1 and then led a !D to see if the Q was stiff. It wasn't, but now I can go down. I led a !C from the board, N is in, and he cashed his !C. Now I make it. But he was not required to cash his !C.  If he gets out with a !Hat T4 I am going down. It's true that this is a very tough play, but it would have worked. There is an old saying that in defending 3NT you should not cash four tricks until you have an idea about where the fifth is coming from. And he might have been suspicious about just why I was handing him this gift in the !c suit. Still, it's a very tough defensive play. Now how about me?  Should I just forget about first trying to drop the stiff !d Q and just lead a !C at T2? Works here, and this being a quiz hand no doubt the !D Q is not stiff (not the right way to think for a learning process). Or can I have my cake and eat it to? How about ducking the first !C , winning the second !C, and then going to the board in!D? If the stiff Q drops then I run the !D, if it doesn't drop then I lead the !C for the unblocking play. Fine, except when I duck the !C they are not obligated to continue !C. Suppose I duck a !C and they switch to a !S? I cannot play low on the !S since if I lose a !S and then they switch back to !C I am cooked. Are my !S strong enough that I can afford to hop up with the A? Yes, they are. I hop up and then lead a !D ducking all around. I lose a !C, a !D, and at most two !S. So I need not fear a !S switch. This means that the right play is to duck the first !C.

I am by no means claiming that I would think all of this through at the table. I didn't think all this through at the table.  But the more we think back on hands, the more we see of the almost infinite variety that bridge presents.

Bottom line: The goal is not just to choose the right line, the goal is to choose the right line after thinking it all through. The hands that Arik presents have interesting features and we should make the most of them.


As the play went at my table, I think it would qualify as one of those "Defensive hand of the year" awards if N, after I put him in with a !C, refused to cash them  So it is hardly a criticism to observe that it would have been right to get out with a !H.  But it is worthwhile to think about.  In bridge and in life, we can sometimes look back and say "Hmm, I might have thought of that."
Ken

wackojack

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Re: Hand 8, dare to declare last week
« Reply #4 on: March 31, 2019, 10:41:43 AM »
As you say you lose nothing by holding off the first club.  It seems the question you have to ask yourself is:  How many clubs is North leading from? 

1. If from 5 (or 4 for that matter) you can likely hoodwink North into playing out her winning clubs enabling you to to discard a blocking diamond. 
2. If from 6, then you have to give up a diamond hoping that the long diamond is with the short clubs. 

Which do you play for? 5-3 is more likely than 6-2.  Also 5  !C lead is more consistent from 5 cards than 6, as from 6 she might lead the Q . 

The dilemma is:  The only double dummy way to make is almost certainly if North is leading from 6.  However, 5-3 gives you better odds because defender North will not be up to NOT cashing her clubs. 

Hoping this analysis has no flaws.

 

kenberg

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Re: Hand 8, dare to declare last week
« Reply #5 on: March 31, 2019, 12:35:04 PM »
Right. We don't want to worry so much about 6-2 that we go down when they are 5-3 or 4-4.  Usually if we duck the !C then !C will be continued but not always so probably it's worthwhile to think for a bit about the dangers of a first round duck. If they switch, then we have the time to develop the !D, but now it will have to be by, at least sometimes, giving up a !D first. So we have to worry that if we duck a !C and they switch to a !S, we can afford to now lose a !C and a !D. With the !s as they are, we are completely safe in ducking.  If they switch to a !S we rise, we develop the !D, maybe losing one and maybe not, and even of we have to lose 1 !D on our right, they can only take two !S no matter how they lie.

It's an interesting hand. It could be that Rho holds Qxx in !D. Then, if Lo holds five !C, we are going down. If it is Lho who is holding !D Qxx we can make it by running the !D J after we take the second !C, but since this leads to disaster if Rho was dealt Qx  (and LLo has five !C) we won't be doing this. So the plan to duck a !C, win the second !C, go to the board in !D and toss a !D on the third !C requires a 2-1 split. I guess that's around 75 percent so it's decent, and anyway the !C might be 4-4. So it's a good plan. Not foolproof but the best we have.

All of these probability arguments have to be modified by the "What will the defenders do" issue. Here, if we duck a !C, it is very likely they will continue !C. It's nice, but maybe not essential, that a !S switch would not be fatal. Not essential because they probably will not switch. Yesterday I was playing 4 !H and the opponents could have cashed the first two !C. They didn't, and I took 12 or maybe even 13 tricks. Watching the Vanderbilt yesterday, declarer was in 5 !H and, if the opponents start with their two aces then there is a trump loser and declarer is down. They didn't start with their two aces and so declarer got to do some pitches and lost to one ace and lost one trump. There is a big gap between the club game I was playing in and the Vanderbilt, but some themes remain.


Ken

jcreech

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Re: Hand 8, dare to declare last week
« Reply #6 on: April 02, 2019, 12:51:20 AM »
Ken,

I agree it is a difficult hand, and always, your analysis is interesting (an eventually you got to Arik's solution).  I'm not sure I would have gotten it at the table as declarer, however, Sanya told me which hand to pull up from aaBridge.  This hand was 4-6 from Arik’s lessons.  He says:

“You may not be able to prevent a defender scoring a trump trick, but WHEN he takes that trick may determine the success or failure of your contract.  If both minor suits split 3-2, you will have thirteen tricks, but when you cash two high trumps south discards a heart.  You can do nothing about RHO’s trump trick, but your contract will still be safe if clubs break.  But what if clubs are also 4-1?  You need to test the clubs while dummy still has a trump.  If RHO also holds four clubs, you will be able to ruff the fourth round while he has to follow suit.  What if RHO has a singleton club though?

“Play a club to dummy’s King and a second club towards the honors in your hand.  If both defenders follow, you can cash the last high trump and claim twelve tricks.  If RHO started with only one club, though, it will not help him to ruff.  Win the Ace and repeat the process:  cross back to dummy with the Ace of spades and lead the third round of clubs through RHO.  Again, it does not benefit him to ruff, so you win the Queen and now ruff the fourth round of clubs in dummy.  RHO can overruff or save his natural trump trick until later, but either way you will have twelve tricks and your contract.”

I don't always catch Morton's Forks until it is too late. But I might have this time because there was a less complex version that came up earlier in a non-trump situation.
A stairway to nowhere is better than no stairway at all.  -Kehlog Albran