2 !D (the right read?)

[ggriffin0]

This is a good hand for practicing the read of your partner's hand, while simple I think it provides some inference.

Your Hand

A973
983
A9
AKQ10

All RED, pd opens first seat 2 ?

Assuming your partner is following the rule of 2-3-4  what is your read?

[kenberg]

I had to look up the Rule of 2-3-4 just to be certain.

https://www.larryco.com/bridge-articles/rule-of-234

LC says  KQJT95 / 54 / K52 / 54 is a 6 trick hand for purposes of this Rule, you count the K as a trick. Maybe so. At any rate, it seems like a fine 2 opening regardless of the Rule.

With that in mind, the 2   opener can have
Kx / xxx / KQJT85 / xx

or

Kx / xx / KQJT85 / xxx

or

Kxx / x / KQJT85 / xxx

and that's just for starters.

It's true I have given declarer the 8 instead of the 9, responder has the 9, but I know nobody who would let his decision on a 2 opening depend on whether he held the 8 or the 9.


In all three of these hands there are 11 tricks and a play for 12 once declarer gets the lead. In the first hand, 5 is hopeless but 3NT will make more often than not, namely whenever the 7 outstanding hearts split 4-3.

In the second hand 3NT is less likely. It makes if the hearts are 4-4. Or maybe they don't find a heart lead when they are 5-3 if the hand holding the three hearts is on lead.  But 5 is on (pretty firm) ice.

In the third, 5 seems extremely likely, and 6 has decent chances. Say they start with a heart and then either play another, ruffed, or shift to something. If clubs are 3-3 or if the J falls we are home. Combined, that's a little over 50%. But there are also squeeze possibilities, helped along by the count rectification at T1. Of course they might not give this help, but often they will. If they start with a heart and belatedly shift to a spade I think it is best to win on the board. If a !c - squeeze is needed the threats should be the J and the long spade in declarer's hand, so we need to preserve the entry.

Anyway, 6 is probably a stretch unless we can find out more about partner's hand. Generally we try first to see which of any game should be bid and then, after that is settled we consider slam.

My guess is that more often than not there are exactly 11 tricks in a diamond contract, while 3NT is iffy. For one thing, in the sample hands I gave the 2 opener the K. If, instead, he has the K then 5 should be safe from his side, but 3NT will not be safe unless I can find a way to make him the declarer, and I have no idea how to do that.

So, at the table, I probably just raise to 5 . It should be right most times, and the direct route might save us  by not posting a road map to the best defense if there is one.

Back to LC for a moment.

About the Rule: "It is a reasonable guideline, but can't be taken too seriously."
About the suit: "I am a big believer in suit quality."

This is pretty much the way I think about it. If pard opens a vul weak 2, I hope his suit is better than KJxxxx. Even with KJxxx my Ax might, with luck, suffice, but I would hope for a better suit with the vul 2 call.

[Masse24]

This one really is a crapshoot. What will happen in ? Will they find the lead?

5 should be very safe. Maybe.  I doubt that I would venture 6 , but this hand would not be posted if it were a "down the middle" response. So my guess is that biding the slam is the winning move.

The form of scoring may influence my next move? IMPs? MP?

What are our methods over weak two bids? Feature? Ogust? Should it be used here, or is the fast route better, attempting to provide as little information to the opps as possible?

LC has it right when he calls it (Rule of 2,3,4) a "guideline." There are very few "rules" in bridge.

[kenberg]

I thought of an approach:

3 - 3 - ?  Of course opener will think I have at least five clubs, but it might well be a harmless fake. And maybe it shouldn't show five. But, undiscussed, I think he will expect that it does.  Suppose he then bids 3 . I now bid 3 and perhaps this will get him to bid 3NT. with his heart stop.

And, if he bids 3 over my 3 I can still bid 3 and see if he is inspired to bid 3NT with maybe Kx. .

And if he raises to 4 we have gone past 3NT but that's fine since when he has diamonds and clubs I doubt 3NT was a winner.  Now I bid 4 and see if he figures it out.

That is all a bit risky for an undescussed sequence but, famous last words, it seems that I should be able to control it all. It is even possible that over 3 , if he holds a stiff heart and club support, that he will bid 4 and then I will bid the fairly reasonable diamond slam.

It's a bit of a fantasy, but it might work.

[ggriffin0]

Like all rules, they exist to be broken, but they are very good to know about. That said, this rule tends to give as much information to opp as pd, so if opps have an inkling toward game, the opener just keyed opps onto it...oops.

The scoring is IMPs and let’s assume 2n is ogust.

From my point of view, using said 2-3-4 rule, partner is 3 tricks shy of contract. I think this has already been stated but with my pesky A , I would think that opener had a few possible hands. Did partner really open 2 KJxxxx? Unlikely but if max maybe. KQxxxx or qjxxxx seems more optimal (toss the 10 anywhere into the three examples) which if not unbalanced should be near the upper range VUL. That suggests opener has outside values, less so if unbalanced. From here the best question becomes how many cards can partner cover in my hand. Unbalanced and double outside honored possible but highly doubtful (split or combined). That out of the way, we seem to be trying to figure out which game is best and how to get there.

The conundrum...there seems to be a few choices undiscussed left?

[kenberg]

A lot depends on suit quality.. I am unlikely to open 2 on QJxxxx when vul. Some do, I don't. Assuming that we can bring in all six tricks in diamonds we need another trick somewhere for 5 . There appears to be many possibilities. Partner might have the J. There is no way to find out. He might have the K. The clubs might split, the J might be onside, there might be a squeeze. Otoh, the opps might be able to cash the first three hearts.

There is no way to find out if partner has the J, there is no way to find out if finesses work or if the J drops. I think my fantasy sequence perhaps has merit, but at the table I would just bid 5 . 

[ggriffin0]

Oh absolutely, I am all for tinkering. For instance, take undefined bids, this isn’t a weakness, this is an opportunity Psyching or temporizing with the intent to run certainly qualifies. I do that quite a bit with asking bids.

I would suggest that 6 should be out unless one has advanced non-standard methods even then it is a rather large stretch. That said, using “feature” might get us half way to 3n etc. But for me it comes down to 3n or 5 and how to get there.

[Masse24]

I have no clue! 

At IMPs, however, I would probably just bid 5 -- rub my lucky rabbit's foot -- and wish partner good luck.