Author Topic: Enter the FIRESTORM :)  (Read 5399 times)

ggriffin0

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Enter the FIRESTORM :)
« on: May 10, 2018, 11:43:14 PM »
There are several parts to this dilemma.

Part 1: Figure out the bidding.

Part 2: Let’s identify issues with the bidding (hand will be shown at this stage).

Part 3: Let’s streamline the bidding for clarity and to reach the best possible contract.


Part 1

White vs Red
P   -   P  -   1 !S -  P
1N - 2N -    X  -  XX
P   -  3 !C - 3 !H - P
3 !S - all pass

What do the following bids mean...2N, X, XX, P, 3 !C , 3 !H , and 3 !S?

kenberg

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Re: Enter the FIRESTORM :)
« Reply #1 on: May 11, 2018, 02:26:17 AM »
[Added: I wrote this up last night, this morning it still seems reasonable. I think the weakest part is that I really do not feel it is clear just what should be the difference between an immediate 3 !H over 2NT and a slow 3 !H, starting with a double first. I do think X followed by 3 !H should be something like the 16 count I mention. But upon reflection I think an immediate 3 !H should be even stronger. A forcing bid with a two suited strong hand that envisions game opposite any hand that can respond 1NT to 1 !S. So: With a merely competitive hand he would  pass the 2NT and then come in later with the 3 !H. With the 16 pointer he doubles and then bids 3 !H. With the really big hand he bids an immediate 3 !H.  The 1NT bidder, as I envision his hand,  has an easy pass/correct in any non-forcing sequence.]

So here are yesterday's thoughts:

2NT is for the minors. Even Goren, who played (1S)-2NT as natural, would play this as being for the minors.

X shows decent values. What shape? TBA.

XX also shows good values. He is a passed hand but that doesn't mean he had any clear call over 1 !S.  He has no particular preference between !C and !D.

3 !C is clubs. If partner has no preference between !C and !D, he chooses !C.


3 !H is an interesting call. The problem is to compare it with an immediate bid of 3 !H over 2NT. I suppose we could argue that an immediate 3 !H over 2NT is 5-5 competitive, not strong. I don't claim that this is obvious or certain.   At any rate I would now play the opening spade bidder for five spades and four or maybe five hearts.

The 3 !S call is definitely weak.  How weak? I would say very weak. And we have to hope he has three spades, it is not certain.

Let's now take the auction as a whole. For ease of reference, say that the dealer is N.

Let's first look at N: Hos partner opened a third hand 1 !s, he bid 1NT and then bid later only because he had to choose between hearts and spades. Preferring spades to hearts does not mean he has three spades. If he has three spades, why did he not just raise spades? Well, some people, with a weak hand, start with 1NT even with three card support, and some do this even as a passed hand, at least when balanced.  So N might have three spades and maybe as much as 7 hcps. If he has only two spades then he could have more strength, but with both S and W showing good values, I doubt that he has much more. Moreover, if he had two spades and three hearts he might well have passed 3 !H.

E: He has the minors. That's about it.

S: I think he has five spades, four or five hearts and a pretty decent hand.

W: Equal length in the minors, probably 3-3, with good values.

Let's see if we can come up with some plausible strengths and shapes:
I am finding the shapes a little bit difficult to square with the bidding as I see it unless I give S five hearts so I will.

N: 6 highs, 3=3=4=3
E: 7 highs: 1=2=5=5
S: 16 highs, 5=5=1=2
W: 11 highs, 4=3=3=3

Would this work? I think so.
After two passes E opens 1 !S, W is not doubling with that hand, N just barely has a 1NT bid, E has a 2NT bid, I can imagine S thinking  3 !H over 2NT might suggest more shape and less strength so he doubles, W has a good had so he redoubles, N is sorry he ever opened his mouth at all and passes, E says fine, 3 !C, S shows his hearts, W has done his bit and passes, N corrects to spades, nobody has anything more to say.

NS are playing in a 5-3 fit with 23 highs plus a heart fit but things will not break all that well.
 Something like this seems reasonable.




 
« Last Edit: May 11, 2018, 12:23:59 PM by kenberg »
Ken

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Re: Enter the FIRESTORM :)
« Reply #2 on: May 11, 2018, 12:36:35 PM »
I am almost in lockstep with Ken here, but not quite.

2NT = Definitely Minors.
    X = Extras. Maybe 16/17/18. At the time the double was made, it could be more. But the ultimate pass of 3 !S limits the hand to roughly 17.
  XX = Puzzling. Very! "You pick" is my best guess.
    P = Waiting. No descriptive bid. Probably a "thank goodness I don't have to bid" pass.
3 !C = Lowest of promised suits. "Pass or correct" still applies.
3 !H = Four  !H. But could be very well be five. With five and moderate extras (better than complete trash), he bids them immediately.
3 !S = Preference. Two cards only. With three  !S and weak, responder bids 2 !S at once. With three  !S and a limit raise, some flavor of Drury. Since 3 !H could show 5=5 majors, this makes it far more likely that responder is 2=2 in the majors and very weak.

So my "vision" of the hand is as follows:

Declarer:
5=4 (22)(13) with 16-18 HCP (Edit: Another possible inference; declarer is very likely short in  !C , else he allows the bidding to go 'round to partner to whack it!)

Responder:
2=2 (54)(36) weak. Minimum. 6-7 HCP

Overcaller:
(12) 5=5 around 10 HCP

Advancer:
(25)(34) 3=3 around 6-7 HCP

So I think it's clear that declarer has extras, and is likely 5=4 or 5=5 in the majors. Responder is very weak, with 2=2 majors. Overcaller has his 5=5 minors. Advancer has a long (5 cards) major with equal length minors.

Ken's penultimate paragraph is spot on, so I will quote it here:
"After two passes E opens 1 !S, W is not doubling with that hand, N just barely has a 1NT bid, E has a 2NT bid, I can imagine S thinking  3 !H over 2NT might suggest more shape and less strength so he doubles, W has a good had so he redoubles, N is sorry he ever opened his mouth at all and passes, E says fine, 3 !C, S shows his hearts, W has done his bit and passes, N corrects to spades, nobody has anything more to say.
 
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« Last Edit: May 11, 2018, 01:36:57 PM by Masse24 »
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ggriffin0

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Re: Enter the FIRESTORM :)
« Reply #3 on: May 11, 2018, 01:18:28 PM »
Good stuff!

One comment about the Pass. To infer what the pass is we need to delve back into that sticky XX.

Is the XX?
1) pick a minor I have no preference
2) SOS
3) hehehe, double my partner, I redouble u (AKA to play)
4) a combination of 1 and 2
5) other

So with that choice the pass is?
1) tolerance (let them play 2N xx hehehe)
2) waiting, partner will get back in if s/he needs
3) weak and nothing
4) combination of 2 and 3

As to the 3 !S bid?
1) realization of not liking at best a 4-3 fit
2) at worst a 5-2 fit perhaps with an honor, best 5-3 but if this was the case then responder would probably have not passed earlier?
3) a better hand than originally anticipated hand but wasted values in !C possibly concern over !D ?

Ok...can 3!S be raised? perhaps if we surmise a different decision tree (not that, that is the right play but possible).

Thoughts???
I'll post the hand a little later...
« Last Edit: May 11, 2018, 01:20:03 PM by ggriffin0 »

Masse24

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Re: Enter the FIRESTORM :)
« Reply #4 on: May 11, 2018, 02:43:27 PM »
XX is, as I mentioned above, puzzling. If I had no preference, I pass the double. Though I suppose this partnership may have a specialized agreement that redouble means "you pick." Lacking that, I think this is an "other." With 31 Flavors of doubles on the menu, I propose we add the "Throw-a-wrench-in-the-works" redouble to the menu; the Wrench Double! At these colors--a dangerous tactic.

Pass is nothing more than waiting--no descriptive call. It could be weak, could be anything up to a max pass.

On the auction as presented, I can't imagine anything more than a doubleton spade. 3 !S though, opposite a fairly strong opener, displays weakness.

The values of the hands (based on the auction) is, within a couple of HCP, fairly clear.

Difficult to comment further without seeing at least one hand.
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kenberg

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Re: Enter the FIRESTORM :)
« Reply #5 on: May 11, 2018, 02:47:13 PM »
Easiest first. The bid of 3 !S is weak. He has, up to the point that he chooses his call over 3 !H,  done nothing other than bid 1NT. He could have a weak hand, and based on the hyperactivity of everyone else he probably does have a weak hand. Thus, if by any chance he does not have a weak hand, he absolutely must do something other than bid 3 !S.  He has to have an out when he does have a weak hand, so he must expect that his 3 !S will be seen as choosing that way out. I agree that it might well be on a doubleton, but a lot of people, sometimes even including me, would bid 1NT over a third seat  1 !S with a flat minimum hand, xxx/xxx/Kxxx/Kxx maybe. If partner passes because he opened light and nobody doubles, that might be no worse than 2 !S. But if partner opened light probably they will climb in somehow. Let them it's their hand.

Now the XX. I cannot myself ever recall doing this. But surely it shows strength. This is based on what he would do if he did not have strength. Without strength he would pass if he had equal length in the minors, and he would choose one minor or the other if he had unequal length in the minors. Partner, by bidding 2NT, has committed the partnership to at least 3m. Without strength the only question left is which m? Passing would say "You choose". Bidding would be "Ok, I prefer the minor I am bidding". So XX is pointless without strength.

Now, can the 3 !S be raised? Yes, I suppose so. But he, the 1 !S opener,  has been warned. If he bids  over 3 !S he is on a solo flight. He has no reason to think his partner has anything beyond the bare minimum for his 1NT bid, and in fact plenty of reason to think that partner has nothing in reserve. So the 1 !S opener can bid on over 3 !S, but he is completely on his own if he does so.
« Last Edit: May 11, 2018, 03:27:32 PM by kenberg »
Ken

ggriffin0

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Re: Enter the FIRESTORM :)
« Reply #6 on: May 12, 2018, 12:36:31 PM »
Opener’s hand:

!S AQ10xx
!H AKQx
!D Kxx
!C J

LHO: Bupkis

!S xxx
!H xxxx
!D Jxx
!C xxx

Responder’s hand:

!S Kx
!H Jxx
!D Axx
!C Q10xxx

RHO:

!S Jxx
!H xx
!D Qxxx
!C AKxx

Again the bidding was:

White vs Red
P   -   P  -   1 !S -  P
1N - 2N -    X  -  XX
P   -  3 !C - 3 !H - P
3 !S - all pass

Now we can consider the sequence a bit better and responders hand offers insight but there are all kinds of problems.

Part 2: Let’s identify issues with the bidding
And re-align previous conceptualizations...
Thoughts?
« Last Edit: May 12, 2018, 12:40:04 PM by ggriffin0 »

kenberg

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Re: Enter the FIRESTORM :)
« Reply #7 on: May 12, 2018, 03:03:49 PM »
The main problem seems to be coping with strange bidding by the opponents. As I mentioned I was having a little trouble working out the shapes. I considered the possibility that the 2NT might be on 5/4. Not my style but some do. The actual 3-2-4-4 shape seems bizarre to me. 2NT might well encourage partner to take a sac in 5m. Why on Earth would I want to encourage such a thing? And the XX is simply beyond my understanding. But that's what they did and we must cope.

Obviously there are 9 tricks on top in NT.  The big hand with the stiff club is not going to be bidding 3NT over 3 !S.  So if it is to be done, it is up to his partner. Well, he holds a 10 count and he has so far shown 6 - 12- (As a passed hand he could have 12, but a bad 12). So he has a good deal more than he has so far shown, his partner, with only the mildest encouragement, has pushed the bidding to the 3 level and so must have good values, 3NT is certainly a reasonable call.

3 !S? I would bid 3 !S if I held
!S Kx
!H Jxx
!D Jxx
!C Jxxxx

I very well could hold that hand on the auction so far and I think partner should expect that I do hold (something on the order of) this hand if I bid 3 !S. Partner, having already bid his had strongly, would accept that it is time to stop.

So definitely not 3 !S. 3NT? With good values for previous bidding, stoppers in both minors, I don't think choosing 3NT is just resulting. It seems like a good choice. And it is. Two overtricks when the spades, unexpectedly, split 3-3.


Added: Another way of looking at this 2NT issue.  Partner of the 2NT bidder in fact has three card support for both minors. So 3m X looks good? I don't think so. Anyway, they escaped that part of it, but then the contract should be 3NT.


« Last Edit: May 12, 2018, 06:05:23 PM by kenberg »
Ken

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Re: Enter the FIRESTORM :)
« Reply #8 on: May 12, 2018, 05:22:37 PM »
I just looked a little more closely and I think that 6 !S can be made against any defense. I do not think we wish to be in it unless we first see the total layout..

For example:
Diamond lead, K wins
Club J, K wins
Diamond back, A wins
Club Q. Pitch losing D if it is not covered, so assume it is covered and ruffed low.
Spade to K
Club T, pitching D
Draw trump (splitting 3-3)
Take hearts.


5 spade tricks, 4 heart tricks, 2 diamond tricks, 1 club trick. That's 12. I don't see how to stop it.

All we need is 3-3 in !S, 4-3 in !C. AK of !C placed right. Sure, why not?
 
Ken

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Re: Enter the FIRESTORM :)
« Reply #9 on: May 12, 2018, 10:42:16 PM »
White vs Red
  P  -   P  - 1 !S  -  P
1N -  2N  -  X    -  XX
 P  -  3 !C - 3 !H - P
3 !S - all pass

1 !S = Opener has his bid. Normal 1 !S
1NT = Normal 1NT (Top of range).
2NT = Playing with fire with only 4-4 minors and vulnerable. Not a call I would ever make.
   X  = Normal. Extras. "They are in trouble!"
 XX  = No comment required. Bizarre. A psych? Or just telling partner to pick? Did I mention bizarre?
   P  = Partner wants blood? Okay, let's await developments. Good call.
3 !C = Presumably just showing the lowest minor, with "pass-or-correct" still in effect.
3 !H = Prefer Pass here. But I am okay with this, since partner may have four !H. A Pass would allow partner to whack it.
   P  = Relieved!
3 !S = 3NT best. Especially with those values.

Crazy bidding by Overcaller and Advancer. The auction after a Pass (rather than 3 !H) by opener would get interesting. But that was not to be. The final 3 !S was timid. I think 3NT would be my choice. While, as Ken mentions, 6 !S makes, I can't imagine bidding it.
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kenberg

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Re: Enter the FIRESTORM :)
« Reply #10 on: May 13, 2018, 12:44:38 PM »
I think the choice of calls over 3 H could be guided by the following general principle: Look at whether you have significantly more in values than so far shown.  In this case the answer is clearly yes. The 1NT bid showed 6+ with an upper limit, from the initial pass,  of a bad 12. What he has is a good 10. His partner has taken the auction to the 3 level with no reason to believe he (the 1NT bidder) has anywhere near as good a hand as he has.  This doesn't guarantee that 3NT will come in but surely it must be a favorite.

Contrast this with the hand that opened 1 !S, doubled the 2NT, and then, still hearing nothing from his partner other than the initial 1NT, has taken the auction to 3 !H.  He has pretty much bid his hand to the hilt. As I mentioned when first responding to whether he can bid more,  sure, he can, but he is definitely on his own if he does. He does not really have unshown values.  And he does not have any clear cut path even if he wanted to bid more.  3NT on his stiff club is out. 4 !S might well land him in a 5-2 fit. given the 2NT call he has good reason to think the spades are not breaking 3-3, and so on. About the only time the spade fit might (that's "might") be 5-3 is when the 1NT bidder is four triple three with a 6 or maybe 7 count. And not everyone bids 1NT with that, although I do.

So if they are going to reach 3NT it has to be the 1NT bidder that puts them there. Without claiming that it is  certain there are 9 tricks in NT, it seems odds on based on the auction.

Of course the 6 !S making is just an amusing sidebar. Nobody wants to be in 6 !S if it requires a 3-3 break in trump, and after the 2NT bid this is even more so. Ok, Jx opposite xxxx will also work, as long as you can develop a club trick. Maybe the opponents will help with that.  You need a club trick to bring the total to 12. Anyway 6 !S is not a serious consideration, it makes, that's the beginning and the end of that.

If the  1NT bidder had an 8 count, maybe even if he had a less desirable 10 count, then 3NT might be iffy.  Here it seems very much odds on.  Not certain, just a good bet. And 3 !S will almost certainly end the auction, as it did.

Briefly put: I look at this and ask: "Who has the most unshown values?" I think the answer is clear.

« Last Edit: May 13, 2018, 12:50:12 PM by kenberg »
Ken

ggriffin0

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Re: Enter the FIRESTORM :)
« Reply #11 on: May 14, 2018, 11:45:50 AM »
From responders point of view after 2nxx. I would think s/he may be thinking of a 5440 distribution in opener. That vantage and the unlikelihood that !S are breaking 3-3, look at suit split probabilities and bidding, then N-S May very well lose 3!C ‘s and a !S on the long suit, which if opener is that weighted in !S and !H (3 !H ) call then likely on !D to break open a suit. This is just one possibility which of course we can see isn’t reality but maybe blind looking at only the bidding. That said I can see 3N being reasonable if we discount !C misfit, we have to admit that J in opener is GOLD. The K !D is also GOLD.

Todd, I too like that idea of passing 3!C and see what action partner takes but ‘‘twas not meant to be.”

Let’s continue with this idea of dismissing 3N; Incidentally, 4 !H also makes along with our 4 !S /6 !S and 3N contracts. In a suited contract, responder can choose the 4-3 !H or 5-2 !S . Just to fill in what appears to have been the logic. While !S are not favored to break neither is !H , however if there is shortness across from the !C suit in responder. Why choose a trump suit that may allow opponents to force partner to ruff herself or himself out of trump? (Think that is a crucial nugget). So it makes sense that responder chose !S .

Part 3:

In the world of should coulds and woulds in the midst of wildness, we may have seen a far different auction; One that is conceptualy clearer and slightly more descriptive not only in strength but also in distribution. Alas that was not to be but if it could happen...What would it be?

« Last Edit: May 14, 2018, 11:47:37 AM by ggriffin0 »

kenberg

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Re: Enter the FIRESTORM :)
« Reply #12 on: May 14, 2018, 12:38:12 PM »
I'll get to Part 3 but first a couple of more words on part 2. On the lie of the cars a lot of things make. But while I am more inclined then some people to play in 5-2 fits and even 4-3 fits, and sometimes the 4-3 is better than the 5-2 if you have a choice, I would try hard to avoid it if I expect trumps to break badly, as I do from the (very daring, I would say nutty) 2NT call, and  when I think the defense might be able to tap declarer. After all, if the 2NT bidder is really 5-5 then he has only three major suit cards so the hearts are 5-1 and the spades 4-2, or vice versa, or one of the majors is 6-0. This particular 2NT bidder is off on some trip of his own of course.

A 4 !H contract is great here.  Say we are in 4 !H and they start with the A, K of clubs. Don't ruff, toss a diamond. That's their last trick. But this works because the clubs and diamonds are so strong, and the distribution so favorable, that nothing can go wrong.

My inclination is to stay out of 4-3 fits and 5-3 fits an such hands, if at ll I can.


Our optimum contract is defending 3 m X,  either m.  In 3 !D the defense can play A,K and another  !D, They get two diamonds and two clubs, down 5. A club contract hardly looks better for them.

But now on to part 3.
First an uncontested auction: Pass - 1 !S - 1NT - 2 !H - 2NT - 3NT. Some might bid 3 !H instead of 2 !H but I think that's excessive.

Ok, back to the actual auction. The 2NT call interferes with this, and assuming that we are not going to make them pay, we have to do our best to  cope. I guess I said that. Even if we are not to penalize them, in looking at our options, the meaning of our bids,  we must consider that on some hands we will want to have a way to play for penalties.  Also, on some hands we want to compete in a part score. On some hands we want to play in a game, and the right strain.

This means that there are more things t sort out than we can possibly sort on with the limited number of bids that we have. Compromises  and judgments have to be made.

All in all, I like the route chosen by the opener. Let's see what he has done:

1. He has shown that he has spades and hearts
2. He has shown that he has a strong hand
3. He has left open the possibility of playing in a part score if the 1NT bidder has a 6 count and they lack an good major suit fit.

It seems to me that with the hand he has, that's a pretty good day's work.


What are some alternatives?

Over 2NT he could bid 3 !D, showing diamond values. Yes, but suppose the 1NT bidder has a four card heart suit. I am not so sure he will bid it. The 3 !D bid sounds like a try for NT, I would expect 3 !H now to be on more than 4. So I think 3 !D will help in getting to NT on this hand but might miss a good 4 !H contract on some other hand.
Another problem with a 3 !D call occurs when the 1NT bidder has a club stop and a 6 count. Does 3 !D say: "Sure, a 6 count is enough as long as you have clubs stopped"?  Is a 6 count enough? Say responder has the !D Q and the !C A. We want to be in 3NT?

Go back for a moment to the actual auction but now suppose responder, the 1NT bidder,  has a 10 count with a club stop but not a diamond stop. How worried should he be about bidding 3NT over 3 !H? Not very, I think. He reasons: If all of partner's values were in hearts and spades he might well not have started with a double. Partner sure doesn't have clubs, I have them, so he must have something in diamonds, we don't need much, and so he still bids 3NT. Could this go wrong? Sure. But I have used this sort of reasoning many times and it goes right far more often than it goes wrong.


So again, from opener's seat after the 2NT call, he thinks "Maybe we have a heart fit, maybe we don't. Maybe partner has a 6 count, maybe he has a 10 count. Maybe we have the stoppers for 3NT, maybe we don't".  It is hard to sort all of that out. I think doubling the 2NT and then bidding 3 !H is a pretty reasonable shot at finding the right spot.
« Last Edit: May 14, 2018, 10:20:57 PM by kenberg »
Ken

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Re: Enter the FIRESTORM :)
« Reply #13 on: May 14, 2018, 11:39:24 PM »
I will assume the question refers to opener and responder.

Assuming no interference, this would be my proposed auction:

   P  -  P  - 1 !S  -  P
1NT -  P  - 3 !H  -  P
3NT - all pass

Unlike Ken, for me it's worth a jump-shift. My threshold is roughly a "good" 18. This qualifies. I think the above would be a typical auction, and an even more typical resting place regardless of the route taken. You might find a few who, with responder's values, might rebid 3 !S (still forcing since 3 !H created a GF), which assuming "expert standard," is merely showing preference. I would not pull that out on an unsuspecting partner, being too afraid he may misinterpret it as a "slow arrival" three card limit raise.

I've already addressed the auction as shown.
Opener had all his bids, but might have passed over 3 !C. The 3 !H call, however, was eminently reasonable, and described the hand well.
Overcaller made a 2NT call (with 4-4 shape) I would not make at adverse vulnerability.
Advancer's Redouble was bizarre.*
Responder's final 3 !S was timid. 

There are too many permutations to play "what if" at each turn in the contested auction.

*Interestingly, I was watching RFP (Pavlicek) last night. There was a redouble by one of his opponents that looked strange. The opponents were Dutch. A kibber remarked that in Dutch Standard (something like that) the Redouble means "you pick."
« Last Edit: May 14, 2018, 11:41:59 PM by Masse24 »
“Kindness is the only service that will stand the storm of life and not wash out. It will wear well and will be remembered long after the prism of politeness or the complexion of courtesy has faded away.” Abraham Lincoln