My lead? Do I have to?

[kenberg]

I present a lead problem. My usual view of opening lead problems is that there is no clearly correct choice, and this is no exception. But when Rho buys the contract, the rules require that you lead. So here it is:

It's matchpoints, nobody is vulnerable, the dealer on your left passes, your RHO opens 2 . The uncontested auction is:

Pass     2
 2     2
 3     6
Pass


Opponents are playing nothing fancy. The 2 was almost but not totally game forcing, the 2 was a natural positive response showing either a five card suit with 2 of the 3 top honors or perhaps a strongish 6 card suit. If a 6 card suit maybe there will not be 2 top honors but it will be of decent  strength. The 2 was natural, and the pair is committed to at least game as soon as 2 was bid. The 3 is natural and at least potentially stronger than 4 . General Principle: Any bid that cannot be passed is at least potentially stronger than one that can be.  The 6 bid places the contract.


So it is now your lead. You hold:
T853
AJ6
T764
K2

Any good ideas?

Note: Grant and I were talking about how we might be able to get more people to participate in the Forum. He suggested we do some hands where there is no clear right or wrong, I said that I had a lead problem that I had been thinking about and I would post that, so here it is.  Of course maybe you think there is a clear right or wrong here. Anyway the point is to encourage responses even if people are not sure.

[Masse24]

Beer Card.

[kenberg]

Thanks fro the response, Todd. I was hoping others might weigh in but I guess not.

I was declarer, I made my slam, it can be set, later I was asking myself whether it is reasonable to think it should have been set. Before displaying the hand I will summarize why I jumped to 6. One question is whether opening leader can figure that must be about what I was thinking, and then come to the right conclusion.


From declarer's (my) viewpoint:
Partner is a passed hand. I thought a grand unlikely. How about a small slam? Maybe, maybe not. Now I could have found out whether my partner had the A but that info by itself would not be conclusive. Partner raised 2 to 3 not to 4 . If all he had was KQxxx and 3 small spades, I would think 4 would be right. A way of saying he had absolutely nothing else to tell me about his hand. Can  I find out about partner's minor suit holding? Not easily I think.

So I came to the conclusion: Maybe there are 12 tricks ready to go, but if not then maybe I will have a better chance of a favorable lead if I just go directly to 6 and let them guess.

Suppose opening leader, OL,  attributes this line of thought to me. Does that help in selecting a lead? Maybe. And maybe not. Maybe it depends on scoring. Matchpoints complicates matters.

If declarer hopes to reach 12 tricks by establishing some heart tricks, OL can see this will go well. In that case maybe he needs to build up a trick so that as soon as he goes up with the A he can cash another trick. A lead might do that if partner has the Q. And, of course, he does. A lead is less likely to build a quick trick since partner would need the KQ, or  the KJ if the Q is in dummy.. We know declarer has the three missing aces  unless he is a total nut.

Otoh: Dummy also has the Q. If instead dummy has the Q, leading the K would be a great gift to declarer. As noted, dummy probably has at least a little something for his 3 rather than 4 . As he does, but in rather than .

Here are all of the hands:


                                    J96
                                    KQ542
                                    Q9
                                    763


T853                                                void
AJ6                                                  T983
T764                                                J532
K2                                                  QJT95


                                  AKQ742
                                  7
                                  AK8
                                  A84


As is so often the case in bridge, I have enough tricks providing they don't get 2 tricks first. I also got a opening lead, won by the Q on the board, Small spade to my hand learning of the 4-0 split, and now a small heart from hand. Not surprisingly, E went up. There is now no way to stop me from pitching two clubs on the KQ. E could have ducked the heart. I then lose no hearts but I still have these 2 losing clubs to worry about. I can manage a club ruff after I duck a and pitch  a on a ,  so all is well.

This hand reflects how I see bridge. I don't know if I should have bid 6 , it's a bit of a lucky make. I don't know if OL should find the setting lead. Given the 4-0 break, it's a good thing partner produced the J. The 9 helps also. Bridge consists of a lot of choices, very few of them are sure bets.

I keep hoping there will be more Forum discussion. I tire of talking to myself. Thanks for your response.

[Masse24]

All of these thoughts entered my mind, Ken.

The  Ace seems folly, and is likely to set up discards for declarer. So no  lead. Easy choice.
I could smell the probable  void with partner, so while passive, it gives nothing away. So no  lead.
That leaves a minor. But which one? The thought of a "hero" lead of a  occurred to me. And since this is a lead poll, the likelihood of a hero lead goes up considerably. So it's tempting.

But at the table, with a possible  AQ on my right--I just can't pull the trigger on that hero lead.

Oh well, maybe I'll be a hero tomorrow.

[kenberg]

I agree. As I was posting I thought about this idea that "The hand is posted, obviously I am supposed to do something out of the ordinary or it wouldn't be posted".

I was playing with the bots and got a lead. later I was thinking "I wonder of a human might have chosen the ?" It crossed my mind to title it "Are you smarter than a robot?"

These hero leads get great play when they work, and can look very foolish when they don't.

Whether or not W should go up with the A when I lead my stiff is another interesting question. Probably he should not, but it is matchpoints. At the time I led my heart it is clear, probably it was highly likely earlier, that declarer has 6 tricks in spades. The Q held at T1, so he has 3 diamond tricks. Surely he has the A for his 6 bid. That's 10 tricks so W  can see that if he goes up with the A declarer now has 12 tricks. If he ducks, the wins of course, but 6+1+3+1=11. Declarer can develop a 12th with the ruff, but just barely. Interchange the 8 and 9 and a duck in hearts would beat the contract. Or so I think. Declarer has to duck a club. W can take that trick. One round of trump has been played already,  and W now leads  the T, where we assume he started with T9xx. If declarer wins in hand then he has to ruff the with the J, promoting West's 9. If he wins on the board then when declarer tries to ruff his third club W produces the 9. This seems right.

I guess my 6 bid was optimistic, but all's well that ends well. I got perhaps overly excited after the 3 call.

[ian84]

I went through pretty much the same thought processes as Todd, and came down to a  I don't see that any particular  has merit, but decided on the T.

Sorry I was allegedly slow in responding, there are times when I can go a whole day without hitting any websites except my email, Facebook and BBO.

[kenberg]

I went through pretty much the same thought processes as Todd, and came down to a  I don't see that any particular  has merit, but decided on the T.

Sorry I was allegedly slow in responding, there are times when I can go a whole day without hitting any websites except my email, Facebook and BBO.

You don't get withdrawal symptoms? 

I apologize if I sounded like a scold. Grant and I had a discussion about trying to increase participation and it seems like an uphill battle.

As far as which , whatever the agreements are is fine. A lot of people like second highest from at least three cards if the highest is the T or lower.
I am not all that find of that for suit contracts, it seems better at NT, but I play it if people like it.  The bots claim that they agree with me, the write up says that they lead low from three or four spots at suits and second highest at NT, but from what I have seen they lead the 2 from 742 at both suits and NT. At any rate, on this one they led the 4. That's my preference as well.
http://tinyurl.com/yczojw8z

[ggriffin0]

I may be emboldened to lead a club depending on how aggressive I feel and how I feel about the opponents. Strategy-wise, surely I have a trick but the question becomes can I take two? I can passively take one and possibly wait for a lead into my hand but the bidding suggests my lho has values. The passive play possibly can lead to an end-play. Regardless of the outcome I see two choices: or .

Let’s talk briefly and perhaps someone else will take up the bastion here. What are the standard leads in the first hand example? I understand this may be a bit pedantic for some, it is a necessary conversation for us all to be on the same playing field. 1-3, 2-4. TON. MUD etc??? Can we really just pick whatever card we feel is right or is there rules for selection based on std agreements? That said, we still have to make a choice within those constraints.