Author Topic: Choices: Hand 2  (Read 2705 times)

kenberg

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Choices: Hand 2
« on: April 21, 2018, 12:59:05 PM »
This is strictly a problem in play. We are in 3NT on the auction 1NT-2 !C - 2 !H - 3NT.  Again it is matchpoints so we want as many tricks as possible.  And again we are playing with the bots. Possibly that matters here, but I sort of doubt it.  The hands:

!S QJ54
!H 52
!D QJ532
!C AJ



!S A2
!H AQ96
!D AT94
!C Q95

T1: !S 3 to the J,8,2 Good start
T2: !D Q to the 7,9,K, establishing that suit with an entry.
T3: !C 2 to the J,3,5


The contract is safe, we can get to nine tricks:  two spades, one heart, four diamonds, two clubs. It's matchpoints, so ten tricks would be nice. What's our best shot? Obviously it is safe to try a small heart to the Q, but should we?  Maybe yes, maybe no.



In the intro to Hand 1 I noted that there are choices. On hand 1 I scored 36%, on hand 2 I scored 76%. That's the point I am making. I am not at all sure that I would bid/play either hand differently should they arise tomorrow. We make choices. Some work, some don't.


Ken

ian84

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Re: Choices: Hand 2
« Reply #1 on: April 21, 2018, 05:13:28 PM »
After trick 3, you still have all suits under control so the QH finesse attempt can do no harm. If the finesse fails, opps lead a Club which you take with the Ace and then cash your contract out
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kenberg

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Re: Choices: Hand 2
« Reply #2 on: April 21, 2018, 06:13:18 PM »
Well, it can do harm if another line would work better, and in this case it turns out that way.
T4 !H 2 to the 4,9,T.  After which you can play W for the !H K. He has to unguard it on the run of the side suits. At T10, he must hold on to both black kings and so has to blank the !H K.

Now is this line best? I am not sure. But I think it has merit and it worked.


Why might it work?
Suppose for the moment that E had both the J and T of hearts. Would he split when I lead the deuce from dummy? If he does, it will go 2,J(or T),Q, K and then I can return to the board and pick up the remaining honor by leading toward my A9. So it might well be wrong to split. But if he doesn't split then my 9 loses to the K, making my Q good.   My thinking was "Small to the 9 might work. Might as well try it, and if that doesn't work I will play W for the K. He seems as likely as E to be holding the !H K. Possibly more likely. "  And so it went.


Thinking about it later, E had a chance to make it tough for me. On the lead of the deuce he can pseudo split by playing the J. I cover with the Q, losing to the K. Now I have to decide whether the split was real, in which case I can go back to the board and lead small toward my A9, or whether it was a fake and I need to play as I did, only this time forcing W to blank his !H T rather than the !H K.  I believe I would get it right but I am not sure.

The bots are up for pseudo splits (my name for it), I have seen them do it. But not this time.   I think this is one of those things where opponents should keep declarer guessing. Always splitting with JT and never pseudo splitting with only one of the JT would, if I knew they would do that, draw a road map for me. So "sometimes" is, I think, the right thing for them to do.


There are almost always choices. On hand 1 I thought for a while over pard's 4 !H and then bid 6 !D. Wrong choice.  Spades are 2-2 so it makes 6 !S. I got the choice on this hand right.   Long ago I was playing against a husband/wife pair (often a danger) and the husband was yelling at his wife for a choice she had made. She calmly announced "I will kill myself in the morning but for now can we go on to the next hand?". Exactly!

http://www.bridgebase.com/tools/handviewer.html?bbo=y&lin=st%7C%7Cmd%7C1SA2HAQ96DAT94CQ95%2CSK763HKT83DK8CK72%2CSQJ54H52DQJ532CAJ%2CST98HJ74D76CT8643%7Csv%7CE%7Cah%7CBoard%203%7Cmb%7C1N%7Can%7Cnotrump%20opener.%20Could%20have%205M.%20--%202-5%20%21C%3B%202-5%20%21D%3B%202-5%20%21H%3B%202-5%20%21S%3B%2015-17%20HCP%3B%2018-%20total%20points%7Cmb%7CP%7Cmb%7C2C%7Can%7CStayman%20--%20%20%7Cmb%7CP%7Cmb%7C2H%7Can%7C2-5%20%21C%3B%202-5%20%21D%3B%204-5%20%21H%3B%202-4%20%21S%3B%2015-17%20HCP%3B%2018-%20total%20points%7Cmb%7CP%7Cmb%7C3N%7Can%7C3-%20%21H%3B%204%20%21S%3B%2010-13%20total%20points%7Cmb%7CP%7Cmb%7CP%7Cmb%7CP%7Cpc%7CS3%7Cpc%7CSJ%7Cpc%7CS8%7Cpc%7CS2%7Cpc%7CDQ%7Cpc%7CD7%7Cpc%7CD9%7Cpc%7CDK%7Cpc%7CC2%7Cpc%7CCJ%7Cpc%7CC3%7Cpc%7CC5%7Cpc%7CH2%7Cpc%7CH4%7Cpc%7CH9%7Cpc%7CHT%7Cpc%7CC7%7Cpc%7CCA%7Cpc%7CC8%7Cpc%7CC9%7Cpc%7CS4%7Cpc%7CST%7Cpc%7CSA%7Cpc%7CS6%7Cpc%7CDA%7Cpc%7CD8%7Cpc%7CD2%7Cpc%7CD6%7Cpc%7CDT%7Cpc%7CH3%7Cpc%7CDJ%7Cpc%7CCT%7Cpc%7CD5%7Cpc%7CC6%7Cpc%7CD4%7Cpc%7CS7%7Cpc%7CD3%7Cpc%7CC4%7Cpc%7CH6%7Cpc%7CH8%7Cpc%7CH5%7Cpc%7CHJ%7Cpc%7CHA%7Cpc%7CHK%7Cpc%7CHQ%7Cpc%7CSK%7Cpc%7CS5%7Cpc%7CH7%7Cpc%7CCQ%7Cpc%7CCK%7Cpc%7CSQ%7Cpc%7CS9%7C

« Last Edit: April 21, 2018, 06:24:33 PM by kenberg »
Ken

ian84

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Re: Choices: Hand 2
« Reply #3 on: April 22, 2018, 07:47:52 PM »
 :)
Insanity is hereditary, you get it from your kids