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IAC & Master Solvers Club / Re: 2024 MAY MSC
« on: March 22, 2024, 08:21:44 PM »
Problem G! :>> It's been more than a year since I RAN A SIMULATION, and this problem is a dream setup for one. Just define Nort as holding 6 diamonds and 7 to 11 points and type this hand into the South position:
"X , AQxxxx, 7654, KJT
...and voila! We got 115 out of 128 deals with an acceptable weak two appearing in the North and 70% of these gave East a hand that would pass that 2 opening. This is what the 4 candidate bids by us would produce:
Five Diamonds: Most of the time, this bid was needless overkill as opps' 4 would not have made and neither would our game bid. However 14 times either 5 Diamonds or E-W 4 Spades WOULD be making, so "5D" is not a total loss especially at IMPS as the bill for 5D being phantom sacrifice is only 5 imps and the game bid when it's winning would be in the double digits.
Two Hearts: Usually the outcome of this bid is to just about guarantee that the opps will get their Spade fit into the hunt AND bid gently rather than optimistically when it seems to them that South's lead-call is bad news for them. On the plus side--on 2 deals getting a heart lead was crucial to defeating E-W 4 Spades.
Three Hearts: "Jump to 3 of a suit asks about that suit" means CONTROL-asks ( I looked it up) presumably by shortness OR aces/kings. So the hint bid of three Hearts is pretty useless this time, in my opinion.
Two Notrump: So far, I haven't studied my acceptable collections of deals with me bidding the feature-ask, since I don't see bidding 5 Diamonds or 3 Notrump whatever partner might have for a reply ( IF HE GETS TO MAKE HIS REPLY ANYWAY).........
Four Diamonds: The simulation gave "Warm fuzzies", indicating that four Diamonds was PAR 70% of the time in that opps THREE spades would make, or four Diamonds would, if not both. It also occasionally bluffed e-w out of a making 4 spades or into a non making 4 spades.
The Law" works (even though the total number of trumps is liable to be 20 which would suggest otherwise.
---Four Diamonds -- hands down
"X , AQxxxx, 7654, KJT
...and voila! We got 115 out of 128 deals with an acceptable weak two appearing in the North and 70% of these gave East a hand that would pass that 2 opening. This is what the 4 candidate bids by us would produce:
Five Diamonds: Most of the time, this bid was needless overkill as opps' 4 would not have made and neither would our game bid. However 14 times either 5 Diamonds or E-W 4 Spades WOULD be making, so "5D" is not a total loss especially at IMPS as the bill for 5D being phantom sacrifice is only 5 imps and the game bid when it's winning would be in the double digits.
Two Hearts: Usually the outcome of this bid is to just about guarantee that the opps will get their Spade fit into the hunt AND bid gently rather than optimistically when it seems to them that South's lead-call is bad news for them. On the plus side--on 2 deals getting a heart lead was crucial to defeating E-W 4 Spades.
Three Hearts: "Jump to 3 of a suit asks about that suit" means CONTROL-asks ( I looked it up) presumably by shortness OR aces/kings. So the hint bid of three Hearts is pretty useless this time, in my opinion.
Two Notrump: So far, I haven't studied my acceptable collections of deals with me bidding the feature-ask, since I don't see bidding 5 Diamonds or 3 Notrump whatever partner might have for a reply ( IF HE GETS TO MAKE HIS REPLY ANYWAY).........
Four Diamonds: The simulation gave "Warm fuzzies", indicating that four Diamonds was PAR 70% of the time in that opps THREE spades would make, or four Diamonds would, if not both. It also occasionally bluffed e-w out of a making 4 spades or into a non making 4 spades.
The Law" works (even though the total number of trumps is liable to be 20 which would suggest otherwise.
---Four Diamonds -- hands down