IAC Forums

Chew the Fat! => IAC & Master Solvers Club => Topic started by: Masse24 on August 10, 2019, 02:55:51 PM

Title: Master Solvers Club - October 2019
Post by: Masse24 on August 10, 2019, 02:55:51 PM
OCTOBER MSC

Deadline: September 10 at 9:00 a.m. (ET)

Submit your October responses here: https://www.bridgeworld.com/indexphp.php?page=/pages/msc/mastersolversmainpage.html (https://www.bridgeworld.com/indexphp.php?page=/pages/msc/mastersolversmainpage.html)

BWS 2017 System: https://www.bridgeworld.com/indexphp.php?page=/pages/readingroom/bws/bwscompletesystem.html (https://www.bridgeworld.com/indexphp.php?page=/pages/readingroom/bws/bwscompletesystem.html)

BWS 2017 POLLS, CHANGES AND ADDITIONS: https://www.bridgeworld.com/indexphp.php?page=/pages/readingroom/bws/bwspolls2017.html (https://www.bridgeworld.com/indexphp.php?page=/pages/readingroom/bws/bwspolls2017.html) 
Good Luck!

P.S. Panel answers and scores are usually published the same day as the deadline.
Title: Re: Master Solvers Club - October 2019
Post by: blubayou on August 21, 2019, 09:40:32 AM
A >>    pass   
  B>>   5D !...  to bid 3NT,  then 5D later  is called 'raising your own preempt'.  To expect to be dummy to 3NT making bunches  is kid stuff
C>>   pass. this is the lead problem--right?
D>>   2D   perfect, as i didn't open 2D , except for those heart stoppers
E>>   2H.   there must be game somewhere,  and we just missed it
F>>   4S    I bid now instead of waiting since this gives best chnce for pard to come in his club suit  OR bid 4NT to ask which minor.
            Double 4H then double again 4S  is fun,as partner can leave it in...hmmm
G>>   3nt.  I can just smell that Jxx hearts over there, making this the right-siding  call.   
H>>   H king.  i really havn't a clue about the opening lead  seldom do,  right, Shawn?
Title: Re: Master Solvers Club - October 2019
Post by: jcreech on August 21, 2019, 11:54:58 AM
Initial thoughts:

A.   MPs makes for odd decisions.  I am torn between passing for penalty (might not be willing to at IMPs as being too close and doubling them into a game) and trotting out 3NT.  Leaning toward the penalty pass at this time.
B.   My initial inclination is to bid 5 !D.  But if I could count on partner having one diamond, it might be worth trying a gambling 3NT. By my quick calculations, partner is likely to have at least a singleton about 75% of the time, but missing the Q, the chances of making, not risking the finesse, drops the chance of running the suit down to close to 50%.  Now I have to figure out whether the panel will be willing to take the 3NT chance as well.
C.   I think I have too many points and too many hearts for partner to find a reopening double.  The question is to decide between which will score better – passing 2S and hoping to set the contract undoubled better than we can score in our contract, or show my values by overcalling 2NT.  Right now, I think it would be better to bid 2NT – the only lie is having a 2nd club, otherwise it is a great description of my hand.
D.   I need to check whether Drury applies after an overcall with BWS, otherwise, I think I am good enough to cue.  Some of the values are soft, so I may step it down to a simple raise by the time I submit.
E.   Who knows what is the right contract?  I have extras, a probable Moysian fit available in hearts, nice presumably fitting cards in diamonds, not no semblance of a spade stop for NT.  2 !S should convey that sort of uncertainty and get partner to make a sensible rebid.
F.   Part 1:  I think it is right to double to get the defense off to a good start.  Part 2:  I am torn between bidding 5 !D and pass.  I think it may be right to pass with there being a trump stack behind the NT bidder and the diamond honors ill placed.
G.  (Must have accidently skipped - I relettered to show this MIA answer)
H.   !C 10.  I may change my mind, it is still early, but I think it may be right to get my best suit started, even though it is dummy’s1st bid as well.  A small spade may be more right, hoping partner will have something to help  get it going.  A !D may also be right as the unbid suit, but for now, I’d like to think of my holding as one or two entries to get the spades going.
Title: Re: Master Solvers Club - October 2019
Post by: Masse24 on August 21, 2019, 08:39:41 PM
PROBLEM B:  3NT.

I had to check to see if Gambling 3NT was part of BWS. It is.

Partner will not pass with a !D void, so I can eliminate that concern. Operating under that assumption (that partner has one or more !D ), what is the percentage the suit runs? I'm not a math person, so I leave it to our PhD in math to calculate. My rough estimate: well over 90%.

So for me 3NT. The question still gnawing at me, is the preemptive value of 5 !D better than the slim shot at the "wrong-sided" 3NT?
Title: Re: Master Solvers Club - October 2019
Post by: Masse24 on August 21, 2019, 10:57:16 PM
Early Guesses:

PROBLEM A:  4 !C

PROBLEM B:  3NT. Partner will not pass with a !D void, so I can eliminate that concern. See my earlier post.

Will I bid on if needed? Yes.

PROBLEM C:  2NT. I’m not overcalling 3 !H with that suit quality and only five of them. 

PROBLEM D:  2 !D. Just enough not to pass. Though not forcing, I like for this to show a tolerance for partner’s suit. Preferably Hx, which is coincidentally what I have. Not sure if this is part of the system. I’ll need to check.

PROBLEM E:  3 !H. Yes, really.
[Added] Second choice, which is still in the running, would be 3 !C. Range is correct, but short a !C. Maybe it's better to lie about minor suit length rather than major suit length? 2 !S was the first thing that entered my mind, a simple, unspecified forcing bid. But then what after partner's forced bid?

PROBLEM F: X. Then Pass. However . . . there’s a lot to be said for simply passing to begin with, keeping the trump split and other suits quiet.

PROBLEM G:  3 !D. Forcing.

PROBLEM H: !C 6. Dummy should be exactly 4=3=1=5 (or very close) with around 16 HCP. Opps have a 4-3 !H fit, so even though partner has five !H, I prefer to hide my King, so will refrain from leading it. Pard has no more than around 6 HCP, so I don’t expect to be able to “set up” his !H. Basically this is a “I don’t know what else” lead.
Title: Re: Master Solvers Club - October 2019
Post by: toasterln on August 28, 2019, 03:01:54 PM
I feel like a kindergartner doing these problems.  However, I feel they have real value..  Wish more of the IAC players would participate.  .....maybe then I would not be embarrassed at my poor decisions.   ;)
A.  Pass   
B.  5D 
C.  2N     Although I considered Dbl as the start of lebensohl sequence
D.  1N     Although 2 D has some appeal.
E.   2S     Forcing more info from partner
F.  Dbl  then Dbl again
G.  3N   Imps we want to bid Vul Game:  Vul partner could have an outside card.
H.  4S  Why is the opening lead problem always the most difficult?  4S seems to be the least expensive ...I hope.
Title: Re: Master Solvers Club - October 2019
Post by: blubayou on August 31, 2019, 10:23:40 PM
 I am getting more comfortable with my lead problem's  !H king.  responder who rebid 1NT was offered delayed support and declined.  I am betting he is unhappy to be in 2NT but of course has most of his stuff in diamonds--  his partner's very short suit.   Still,  I'm ready to take my usual 60  on problem H  :( ???
Title: Re: Master Solvers Club - October 2019
Post by: bAbsG on September 06, 2019, 02:13:33 PM

SOLVER: Babs Giesbrecht
       Qualicum Beach BC
       Canada

Your Solutions for the October 2019 Contest 
-------------------
PROBLEM A: 4 Clubs
PROBLEM B: 3 Notrump    (was tempted to just pass then bid diamonds until the cows come home)
PROBLEM C: 2 Notrump
PROBLEM D: 2 Diamonds
PROBLEM E: 2 Clubs
PROBLEM F: Double | 5 Diamonds
PROBLEM G: 3 Diamonds
PROBLEM H: Club 10
Title: Re: Master Solvers Club - October 2019
Post by: kenberg on September 06, 2019, 02:32:35 PM
PROBLEM B:  3NT.

I had to check to see if Gambling 3NT was part of BWS. It is.

Partner will not pass with a !D void, so I can eliminate that concern. Operating under that assumption (that partner has one or more !D ), what is the percentage the suit runs? I'm not a math person, so I leave it to our PhD in math to calculate. My rough estimate: well over 90%.

So for me 3NT. The question still gnawing at me, is the preemptive value of 5 !D better than the slim shot at the "wrong-sided" 3NT?

I have not calculated it exactly but yes, over 90%. The suit runs if partner has at least two diamonds, it runs if he has the stiff Q, and he pulls if he has a void. So for this to go wrong partner has to have a stiff spot and one of the opponents the remaining three cards.

A rough calculation: There are three choices for the spot card in pard's hand, and then we could put the other three cards  either to the left or to the right. So that's six ways to place the cards for failure. How many ways can we place the cards? We could modify the question: Given that partner leaves 3NT in, how many ways can we place the cards?

If we place, say, the !D 3 on our left then this makes it a little less likely that the !D 6 will be on our left because we have already taken up a space. Let's first ignore that for simplicity. Then each of the four missing cards can be placed in any of three hands, so that's 3^4 = 81 ways to place the four cards. If we decide to eliminate those cases where pard has a void, then to count those we have to place each of the four cards in one of the two opponent's hands, that can be done in 2^4=16 ways. So this gives 81-16-65 ways such that pard won't pull and the suit won't run.

So we estimate a probability of 6/65 that partner will leave it in and still the suit won't run. That's a little under 10%, closer to 9%, making the chance of success when it is left in as more than 90%  as Todd suggests.

But this is still off a bit in a the pessimistic direction because of the "packing effect" mentioned above: initially there are 13 places in each unseen hand to place the !D 3, but if we assume it is, say, on our left they there are only 12 spots to place the 6 on our left. This means that it's somewhat more likely the suit will be distributed somewhat more evenly. A familiar example is when declarer and dummy hold 11 card in a suit missing the K and a spot. Each of the two missing cards can be place to the left or to the right, so there are four ways to place them There are two ways for the K to fall, either stiff on the left or stiff on the right. But still the chances are 52%, not 50%, that the K will fall. Once we imagine a spot card placed on the left, there is more room for the K to be placed on the right. Note that the change in odds is not minuscule, it goes up from 50% to 52%. And so it would be a noticeable amount  here if we calculated it out. So yes, if partner leaves 3NT in, the chances of the !D running should be well over 90%.

Or so I calculate it. These calculations are always a little prone to hidden traps. But this seems right.
Title: Re: Master Solvers Club - October 2019
Post by: wackojack on September 06, 2019, 06:06:51 PM
PROBLEM A
This one looks like toss a coin for the answer.  What does partner have for the re-opening double?
 !S AJ10x
 !H KQJ10x
 !D x
 !C KQx
3N has no chance.  4 !C has chances but could fall apart. 3 !S has better chances and scores more.  4 !H with a 4-2  !H break also has good chances. 

or does partner have something like this?
 !S Axxx
 !H AQJ10x
 !D x
 !C KQx

Assuming K  !H onside then 3NT looks good with either the  !H or clubs coming in for at least 9 tricks. 

Of course partner could have more and unlikely to have less than the two 16 point hands suggested.  So I rule out 4  !C.  I rule out pass because 3  !D could make opposite hand 1. 
 I rule out 3  !S because it is a poor contract opposite hand 2. 

What about 3 !H?  That could be passed and with 2 aces I want to be in game.  So we are left with 4  !H hoping for hand 1 or better, or 3NT hoping for hand 2 or better.  My 9 !H I feel is an important card so I will go for 4  !H. 

No time for the other problems.  I hope they are not as guesswork as this one.   
 
Title: Re: Master Solvers Club - October 2019
Post by: Masse24 on September 07, 2019, 10:45:07 AM
I've got my mind made up on all but one, PROBLEM E.

Here it is:
!S 965 !H AT6 !D AQ !C AKT86

Auction:
1C - (1 !S) - X - (P)
??

Question: Do you consider this a game-force hand? Or more precisely, close enough to stretch?
Title: Re: Master Solvers Club - October 2019
Post by: jcreech on September 07, 2019, 11:12:06 AM
I've got my mind made up on all but one, PROBLEM E.

Here it is:
!S 965 !H AT6 !D AQ !C AKT86

Auction:
1C - (1 !S) - X - (P)
??
.
Question: Do you consider this a game-force hand? Or more precisely, close enough to stretch?

Partner should have a minimum of 7 HCPs to make a negative double that makes partner rebid at the 2 level, so with a combined 24 HCPs, I am willing to make a game force.  However, my definition of a game force is either we are defending a doubled contract or have bid to 3NT or higher.  This definition allows for playing in four of a minor.
Title: Re: Master Solvers Club - October 2019
Post by: Masse24 on September 07, 2019, 11:57:30 AM
I think it’s close, but being right on the cusp it’s the least lie. Although only 17 HCP, the KnR on it is 18.3 If it’s a game force (or close enough), then 2 !S is clear . . . at least for me.

If the auction continues 1 !C – (1 !S) – X – (P) – 2 !S – (P) – 3 !C – (P) – 3 !H . . . then 3 !H cannot be passed, since a cue-bid and a rebid of responder’s suit is a game-force.

Kokish, in describing this 2 !S bid in the March 2019 MSC wrote, “Sometimes, overbidding a bit can be justified if it helps to locate the best strain for game.”

The very similar March hand was: !S A762 !H KJ4 !D A7532 !C A

The auction started the same, with the question hinging—like here—on opener’s rebid. The surprising plurality vote was for 3 !H , which left me scratching my head. But the hands are different, the primary disparity as I see it is the stiff !C A in the March hand. That makes the jump to 3 !H there more attractive since ruffs are more likely. Here, that !D Q mucks up the works for any intended ruffs. A flaw, at least as far as a jump to 3 !H .

This month’s hand is a point stronger, making the game-force less distasteful. It’s certainly the best way to discover our best strain. If I squint, I can see it.

2 !S for me.  :)
Title: Re: Master Solvers Club - October 2019
Post by: jcreech on September 07, 2019, 12:55:56 PM
Needed to pull the trigger.  The movers take everything away on Monday, internet will be down for three days, and I did not want this hanging over my head along with everything else.

SOLUTIONS FOR:
James Creech
Fredericksburg VA
U.S.A

PROBLEM A: 4 Clubs - the reality is, partner asked me to bid a suit, so I will bid my best suit
PROBLEM B: 3 Notrump - my fear of 3NT was partner passing with a void but stoppers elsewhere - fear was unrealistic - I deny anything outside
PROBLEM C: 2 Notrump - showed my values
PROBLEM D: 2 Diamonds - most flexible bid available - constructive, lead directing, leaves room for partner to ask or tell at two level
PROBLEM E: 2 Spades - again most flexible bid available and shows my values
PROBLEM F: Double | Pass - I disagree with Todd that this says anything about spades, but it does say something about hearts
PROBLEM G: 3 Diamonds - not good enough for 4 !C (two places to play) or double and bid my own suit, not a good bid in IAC, but I think it is right for BW
PROBLEM H: Club 10 - opening a club often doesn't say much about the suit, other than they don't have 5 of a major or 4 diamonds; I think I should start my best suit
Title: Re: Master Solvers Club - October 2019
Post by: kenberg on September 07, 2019, 06:01:03 PM
Regarding problem E. I suppose that opener was planning, if it began 1 !C - Pass - 1M - Pass to rebid 2NT. I can understand that, it certainly is a very good 17 count. Once he has done this, I think he is stuck with now bidding 2 !S.  He might well wish he had opened 1NT but he didn't.  I can't say I much like 2 !S, but that's why it's a problem hand.

Added: Probably there is no way out but it does seem to raise the question as to whether, after 2 !S, the continuation 3 !D - 3 !H should really be game forcing. It means that after 1 !C - (1 !S) - X - (Pass) opener has  limited options. If he has a hand that is too strong for a 1NT opener and too weak for a 2NT opener, and he does not have four hearts, he simply cannot know if the hand belongs in game. It would not be crazy for the continuation over 2 !S of 3 !D  -3 !H to show exactly this situation. A strong hand, too strong for 1NT opening, but not sure whether we belong in game and if so where. Responder might be better placed to decide on that.
Title: Re: Master Solvers Club - October 2019
Post by: Masse24 on September 07, 2019, 08:06:38 PM
SOLUTIONS FOR:
Todd Holes
Glen Ellyn IL
U.S.A.

PROBLEM A: Pass.              Matchpoints--who knows.
PROBLEM B: 3 Notrump.     I see it as a "two bites at the apple" bid. Is the loss of the preemptive value of 5 !D worth it?
PROBLEM C: 2 Notrump.     I’m not overcalling 3 !H with that suit quality and only five of them. 
PROBLEM D: 1 Notrump.     Coin flip. Came up tails.
PROBLEM E: 2 Spades.       Treating as a GF. Will support !H next.
PROBLEM F: Double | Pass. No guarantee that 4 !S makes, so forcing partner to choose a red suit at the five level is high risk.
PROBLEM G: 3 Diamonds.   Forcing.
PROBLEM H: Club 6.           Leads are tough for me. I also like the !C T.
Title: Re: Master Solvers Club - October 2019
Post by: DickHy on September 08, 2019, 08:20:41 PM
There may be hoots of derision, but ...

A.  Pass.  Partner looks to have 16/17 HCP and 4504 (ish); each of the rest of us with 8 or so.  3N is tempting, but if E (who’s likely to have an outside honour) has Qxx in H, 3N is doomed.  In that case defending 3Dx, we would take 3 black suit tricks (presumably), 2 H tricks, a H ruff and a D for +500.  If H break badly, say with Q98x in W, 3N would go off, but defending 3Dx would score +300 (3 blacks, 2H and a D).  If E had only one H we only score +100 defending 3Dx: could we make 4C against opps with x54x and x16x for +130?  Not sure.

B.  4D.  West and partner figure to have 24 HCP between them, either side may have game or we might both have just part-scores.  Vulnerable I don’t want to go too crazy and discover a 20/20 hand.  However, I don’t need much from partner to make 5D, but I need fast tricks: Ks and Qs won’t be useful - but they will be useful if I opened a Gambling 3N and diamonds break.  It is not clear from the BWI system notes what partner will do opposite a Gambling 3N with a void in my suit (which will be clear).  If he bids 4N (System Change No. 425 asking for my minor) all might be ok.  If he passes with a void in my suit (say with 10-14) and opponents then pass, my diamonds will be useless and he will be trying to make 9 tricks with 12 out of 32 points.  Given that uncertainty I will have to settle for 4D.

C.  3H.  Double might work, but I worry that partner holding a hand with which I could make 4H (say 0346/1345 and 8-10 HCP) will pass my 3C after a Lebensohl sequence.

D.  Pass.   E has passed twice so has 5 or fewer HCP, say 3.  Partner and opener have 28 between them.  Partner figures to be short in H, but didn’t x, so perhaps has 10/11.  In that case, as we’re vulnerable and quite a few of my points may not pull much weight (J of C, QJ of H), I’m inclined to be cautious and see what happens.  After passing now, I can always bid diamonds or 2S later, depending on how the auction develops.

E.  2S.  3C is a possibility, but I’d like to bid 2S asking for a S stop.  Am struggling to find that bid in the BWI system; surely it’s available?   

F.   F1: x and F2: x.  Partner could have 5 spades and, even though he might have as little as just one honour card, that break could pose problems for declarer.  Alternatively, he could hold 5 clubs.  Either way I don’t want to impose a red suit on him (through a 4N overcall showing two suits).  So, x first and then, after (4S) – p – (p), x again.

G.   5C.  We’re vulnerable so my ever-reliable partner will have KQxxxxx in C and an honour card outside.  Even so, we could have 3 or 4 losers.  The HA is very useful if it survives as an entry until after the finesse or ruffing finesse in D, but will it?  Opponents don’t have game, so pass or 5C seems the choice.  What the heck.       

H.    Club T.  Partner has 6 HCP and 5 hearts.  He might have QJxxx in H and an outside entry, but I don’t really want to be banging down the HK at T1.  Call me simple, but a club lead seems reasonable.  Sure, opener may be 4315 but he could also be 4333.  I have entries (including probably the failed H finesse) to press on with clubs.  Left to my own devices I would lead the CT.  BWI may insist on 4th highest though, and a duck will be in the offing.       


SOLUTIONS FOR:
Dick Harvey
Southampton
U.K.

PROBLEM A: Pass
PROBLEM B: 4 Diamonds
PROBLEM C: 3 Hearts
PROBLEM D: Pass
PROBLEM E: 2 Spades
PROBLEM F: Double | Double
PROBLEM G: 5 Clubs
PROBLEM H: Club 10

Title: Re: Master Solvers Club - October 2019
Post by: wackojack on September 09, 2019, 04:59:33 PM
SOLUTIONS FOR:
Jack Goody
Guildford
England

PROBLEM A: 4 Hearts                                Stick to my guns
PROBLEM B: 5 Diamonds                           That is what I have got
PROBLEM C: 2 Notrump                             Reluctantly rejected double 
PROBLEM D: 2 Diamonds                           Looks right
PROBLEM F: 4 Spades                                4  !S Michaels?  Out on a limb here
PROBLEM G: 3 Diamonds                           Take it easy
PROBLEM H: Spade 4                                 Partner I believe on the bidding  has at least 3 spades; if K10x it will be my lucky day
Title: Re: Master Solvers Club - October 2019
Post by: wackojack on September 09, 2019, 09:04:55 PM
Missing was:
E: 2  !S
Title: Re: Master Solvers Club - October 2019
Post by: drac on September 10, 2019, 09:05:33 AM
SOLVER: Wladislaus Dragwlya     
        Castrum Sex
        Romania

Your Solutions for the October 2019 Contest
-------------------
PROBLEM A: Pass
PROBLEM B: 3 Notrump
PROBLEM C: 2 Notrump
PROBLEM D: 1 Notrump
PROBLEM E: 2 Spades
PROBLEM F: Double | Double
PROBLEM G: 3 Notrump
PROBLEM H: Heart King
Title: Re: Master Solvers Club - October 2019
Post by: kenberg on September 10, 2019, 12:04:47 PM
SOLVER: Ken Berg
        Eldersburg MD
        U.S.A.

Your Solutions for the October 2019 Contest
-------------------
PROBLEM A: Pass
PROBLEM B:  1 Diamond
PROBLEM C:  Double
PROBLEM D:  1 Notrump
PROBLEM E:  2 Spades
PROBLEM F:  4 Spades
PROBLEM G: 3 Notrump
PROBLEM H:  Club 6

Some of these might be a bit eccentric


Title: Re: Master Solvers Club - October 2019
Post by: Masse24 on September 10, 2019, 02:00:20 PM

Some of these might be a bit eccentric

No doubt a result of your Minnesota upbringing. Heck, you probably even double up on the tater tots in your hot dish.

Now that's eccentric!  ;)
Title: Re: Master Solvers Club - October 2019
Post by: kenberg on September 10, 2019, 05:17:33 PM
SOLVER: Ken Berg
        Eldersburg MD
        U.S.A.

Your Solutions for the October 2019 Contest
-------------------
PROBLEM A: Pass                    100
PROBLEM B: 1 Diamond             70
PROBLEM C: Double                   70
PROBLEM D: 1 Notrump             70
PROBLEM E: 2 Spades              100
PROBLEM F: 4 Spades                60
PROBLEM G: 3 Notrump             70
PROBLEM H: Club 6                   90

                                               630

All in all I'm satisfied. I thought some answers, such as 1 !D on B, might be scored as  "You gotta be kidding". But it seemed to me that partner could have a hand where 6 !D was on ice but he would not raise 5 !D to 6 !D.  And for the lead problem I considered the !C 2 instead of the !C 6, both were given the same score but the 2 got more panel votes. I was far from confident either would be seen as worthwhile.

As to Minnesota, I am pleased to say that my wife Becky has now been ice fishing. (I might have said this before.) Pretty good for someone who, as a teen in the 1960s, lived a few blocks from Haight Asbury.  "One pill makes you larger and one pill makes you small..."  She tells me that she stayed pretty clear of it. But she did see Jefferson Airplane live.
Title: Re: Master Solvers Club - October 2019
Post by: Masse24 on September 10, 2019, 06:08:01 PM
SOLUTIONS FOR:
Todd Holes
Glen Ellyn IL
U.S.A.

PROBLEM A: Pass.              100
PROBLEM B: 3 Notrump.       50
PROBLEM C: 2 Notrump.     100
PROBLEM D: 1 Notrump.       70
PROBLEM E: 2 Spades.       100
PROBLEM F: Double | Pass.   70
PROBLEM G: 3 Diamonds.   100
PROBLEM H: Club 6.            90

                                           680

Nothing shocking. I am, however, mildly surprised that 3NT did not garner more support from the panel on problem B. But I suspected that might be the case. I'm curious how the panel voices their strong preference. Presumably, it's due to the preemptive nature of the bid. What else?

I wonder, too, about problem D. I chose 1NT over my original thought of 2 !D because I was unsure how BWS treats 2 !D there. I like it to show a tolerance (Qx or better?) for partner's suit, but could not find this mentioned in the system. The panel's thinking will interest me here. Contested auctions and "what means what" can get rather convoluted.

ToasterLn, by the way, rocked this month with a 740. Nice score!  :) 
Title: Re: Master Solvers Club - October 2019
Post by: jcreech on September 11, 2019, 03:48:57 AM
I feel like a kindergartner doing these problems.  However, I feel they have real value..  Wish more of the IAC players would participate.  .....maybe then I would not be embarrassed at my poor decisions.   ;)


I wish my decisions this month were as good as yours.  740 the makes Bridge World honor roll.  Well done.

The full list follows:

Name      Score    Rank Pl Pts  HR Pts         
ToasterLn   740       1     20       10
Masse24      680     2   15   
WackoJack   670        3      10   
DrAculea      670      3   10   
KenBerg      630      5   1   
Jcreech      600        6   1   
DickHy      570        7   1   
BabsG      510        8   1   
Blubayou      510        8   1   
Title: Re: Master Solvers Club - October 2019
Post by: Masse24 on September 17, 2019, 11:26:44 AM
My Bridge World arrived so I've added some panel opinions below.

The director for October was Kit Woolsey.

A few snippets from the panel:

PROBLEM A: Pass was the majority panel choice. Our IAC forum solvers were pretty much in line with the panel vote for Pass. Danny Kleinman stated it best with, “Not expecting to be able to run clubs, I don’t like my prospects for nine tricks quickly enough to make three notrump; so, with two ace I’ll hope for a moderate penalty, trusting North to have ample high cards.”

Kit summarized with, “One of the problems with bidding anything is that even if there is a better spot than defending against three diamonds doubled, we might not find it. That is often a good reason to pass a takeout double of a preempt when there is no attractive alternative.”

PROBLEM B: 5  !D . This was a landslide majority. Kit started off with, “The obvious five-diamond bid speaks for itself,” later asking, “What’s the problem?”

Darn it! Not so “obvious” to me.

Kit’s words pretty much summarized everyone else’s. But Bobby Wolff quipped, “I love two-suiters, especially when both suits are only one.” Yup! 😊

PROBLEM C: 2NT. Although 2NT was the plurality panel choice (as well as the IAC forum), there was plenty of dissention on this one. Kit states, “Yes, the singleton club is the big flaw. A five-four heart fit can be located, and three-notrump might be better than a five-three heart fit. However, if West leads a club and partner doesn’t have the suit well-stopped, nothing will save the notrumpers.”

PROBLEM D: 2  !D . The runaway panel choice, receiving 19 of 27 votes.

I went with 1NT after long contemplation. A flip of the coin, which did not pan out as planned.

Kit: “It is true that South has a great heart holding for notrump. Otherwise though, there is nothing about the hand that looks like notrump. A singleton. A broken six-card suit that will take time and entries to establish. If this is a part-score deal, diamonds figures to play a lot better than notrump.”

PROBLEM E: 2  !S . Universally considered a game-force, which was part of our forum discussion. Maybe I'm wrong but, I'm not sure that everyone on our forum understood the GF nature of this bid, so this was a good "what means what" moment.

Kit: Opining about 2 !S , “I don’t get it, isn’t that game-forcing?” (Kit obviously disagreed with the GF strength evaluation by bidding 2NT).

Karen McCallum: “A slight overbid (game-forcing), but this is our best shot at reaching the right strain.

Zia: “Confucius: better to overbid a little than underbid a lot.”

There were several other 2 !S bidders who slipped in comments alluding to the fact that it was a mild overbid, but the flexibility (also expressed by some of our forum) made up for the mild over-evaluation.

PROBLEM F: Double | Double. A wide variance on this one, which makes sense since it was a two-parter.

Kokish (with Bramley, Berkowitz, and Robinson) believed the Double | Double route to be the most flexible. Kit disagreed stating, “Double then double may seem more flexible, but that is an illusion. Unless partner happens to have an unlikely spade stack, how will he know whether or not to pass? . . . Bidding five diamonds may leave only two options, but these are likely to be the right ones.”

PROBLEM G: 3 !D . Kit summarized with, “If the choice were between pass and five clubs, I would agree that bidding is the percentage action. But there are other options. As long as South makes a forcing bid, five clubs won’t run away. (Exactly!) Three-notrump or even five diamonds might be the best game. Probing does little damage. . . . It must be better to try to find the best game . . . .

PROBLEM H: LOW !S . A low !S received 10 panel votes, a low !C received 9. Close – hence the close scores of 100 and 90 respectively. 
There was wide agreement that dummy showed a 4=3=1=5 with roughly 16 HCP.

Although there were a few who chose the !H King, Karen McCallum voiced the negatives for that lead best with, “Partner probably has five hearts but not enough strength to establish and run the suit, even if the hearts are strong.” Kokish, however, had other ideas, choosing the !H K with the following, “Likely to be productive to lead North’s five-card suit rather than to guess which black suit card will not concede a trick.” Good point! 

That's all folks!
Attempting to reproduce all the panel responses would take forever, however, if you have a question about a particular problem and how the panel voted, just ask.
Title: Re: Master Solvers Club - October 2019
Post by: bAbsG on September 17, 2019, 04:50:22 PM
Wonderful summary Todd!  Thanks for taking the time to do this.   !H
Title: Re: Master Solvers Club - October 2019
Post by: blubayou on September 25, 2019, 02:00:59 AM
where the heck is an avalanch of ABSTAAIN!! s   from failure to open 1NT????
and  who has any respect for free 1S bids?  :):)