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What is partner showing?

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jcreech:
This came up yesterday in a swiss-movement pairs earlier today.  You hold with everyone vul and partner opens:

 !S AQ9
 !H J94
 !D T632
 !C K97

The auction has gone:
 1 !D   P    1NT  2 !D      2 !D is alerted as showing both majors
 3 !C  P     3 !D  3 !S
 3NT   P      ?

What is your next call?  What do you know of partner's hand?

Masse24:
I'm passing. Partner thinks he has a play for 3NT.

I'm not sure what partner has, though I guess 5=4 in the minors, maybe 5=3.  My delayed diamond support, presumably showing four, makes partner think they run. So I guess they are headed by AKQ? Club suit headed by AJ. . . maybe?

Partner's spade stopper is presumably the king? Wow, what is the opp bidding on, some sort of 7=5 freak to the Jack?

I want to see partner's hand --- should be interesting!  :o

kenberg:
I had the hand shown and I also passed.

I am not at all sure that I should have, so I am interested in what others would do. Here are some of my thoughts.

A. I have a max, I might well have had less. With
 !S QJ9
 !H J94
 !D T632
 !C K97
I would also have responded 1NT and I would have corrected 3 !C to 3 !D.
With even a little more strength, I would have bid either 2 !d or 2NT on the first round.
What this means is that if I pull, I am pulling to 5 !D not 4 !D. Pulling 3NT to a perhaps passable 4m is unattractive in general but perhaps, with the weaker hand 4 !D would make and 3NT would not. With the extra strength, I am not going to suggest 4 !D as a possible contract. So it is pass or 5 !D, so I think. 

B. So which is it?  Well, it's a pretty flat hand. Hearts are definitely a danger. Maybe  partner has the stiff Q or even better the Qx. Or maybe not. But the opponents are advertising shape. Against 5 !D it might begin with, say, a club to a potential  A on my right, a club back ruffed on my left, and the !H A for down one. That wouldn't have happened, but it seems possible.

C. So 3NT is going down, although in fact it often made. 5 !D cannot be beaten, but it requires a correct choice. The clubs are the K97 as shown, opposite QT84. Lho has a 5=4=1=3 shape, we need to find the J. No doubt I would get it right. Or not. Nobody was in 5 !D.

D. As to the play in 3NT the opening lead was a spade. I have three spade tricks and five diamond tricks, I need one more. I won on the board and led a club. I was hoping the A was on my right and that either Rho would duck or that he would hop up and continue spades. Nope. So down 2.

E. Looking at the results, nobody was in 5 !D. A couple of pairs were in 4 !D, one making exactly, the other making 5. The successes were all in NT, one made with an overtrick.  I am not, definitely not, saying that this means passing 3NT was right. I felt later it was wrong, I should have pulled to 5 !D. But I can't say I am sure of that either.
 

jcreech:
Ok, guess I was not describing my hand well.  I thought I was showing a distributional hand with 2 !C, then when my RHO bid 3 !S, I showed a willingness to compete and a spade stop, the implication being that I have no heart stop, or I would have raised NT immediately.  I thought the best I could have in hearts is xx and a bit more likely x or stiff honor.

My actual holding was:
 !S K64
 !H 7
 !D AKQJ7
 !C QT84

I felt like my bidding might show more than I had, but the quality of the diamond suit, if partner was near the top of his range, game might be there.  As it was, my best choice was to make a penalty double.  The 3 !S bid boxed the opponents into a down 3 situation.  In spades, we get six tricks and possibly more.  In hearts we are limited to five tricks, but they are one level higher.

Partner made the same choice as Todd.  For nine tricks, partner tried to sneak a club through and the defense made the heart switch to take six tricks.

The overcaller was insane though.  The cuebid was not entirely off the wall, but to bid 3 !S was with !S JT852 !H KQ83 !D 5 !C A53.  To force partner to choose at that level and vulnerability without more shape or HCPs is asking for trouble.  Unfortunately, I was not up to making him pay for the transgression.

kenberg:
There are a lot of questions. Often things are not clear in auctions. With my four diamonds it seemed right to convert 3 !C to 3 !D. But I could have bid 3 !S. With a !H stop you would likely bid 3NT, I would think the 3 !S is a spade stop and a maximal hand for my original 1NT. That call might get us to 5 !D, since you do not have a !H stop.

Setting them three tricks in 3 !S might require some precise defense, but we should get them down two w/o too much trouble; Two clubs, three spades and a !D. If we manage to ruff a heart with a spade spot then yes, it's three. But I doubt they will be playing in 3 !S X. S has shown both majors. He is only 5-4 but still N has five hearts and two spades, I expect he will bid 4 !H over the double of 3 !S. We get two spades, two clubs and a diamond for down 2. But then maybe we play 5 !D. Well, maybe.

So 5 !D makes, at least if I choose correctly in clubs. 3NT shouldn't make but sometimes did. Perhaps others have some thoughts. I don't think it is all that certain who should have done what.

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