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Messages - Masse24

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706
IAC & Master Solvers Club / Re: Master Solvers Club
« on: August 14, 2018, 09:43:00 AM »
Had a good month:

PROBLEM A: 3 Clubs         100
PROBLEM B: 5 Clubs         100
PROBLEM C: Pass | Pass     50
PROBLEM D: 3 Notrump    100
PROBLEM E: Pass              100
PROBLEM F: 2 Diamonds   100
PROBLEM G: 3 Notrump    100
PROBLEM H: Heart Ace      100
                                       750

707
IAC & Master Solvers Club / Re: Master Solvers Club
« on: August 11, 2018, 01:56:34 PM »
OCTOBER MSC PROBLEMS

https://tinyurl.com/OCTOBER2018MSC

 !S  !H  !D  !C

708
IAC & Master Solvers Club / Re: Master Solvers Club
« on: August 11, 2018, 01:46:10 PM »
My guess on "PROBLEM C," and assessment of the panel's opinion of it was spot on. Wimpy! I can guess the reasoning for the immediate 3 !D will be the immediate preemptive value, not allowing the opponents to communicate where their fit may be. Even knowing that, I remain a wimp. The second place vote, redouble, which I like a lot did not even occur to me. Some sort of blind spot I guess.

I thought "PROBLEM G" was the toughest. The close votes reflect the panel's difficulty in choosing too. I almost pulled the trigger on Ken's choice of Pass. It's really a coin flip between a few choices.

I had planned to do a very brief summary of the written MSC for August, but got sidetracked. I will maybe finish it and tack it on to a previous post.

It will be interesting to read the panel's reasoning for the September MSC when the next issue comes out.

709
IAC & Master Solvers Club / Re: Master Solvers Club
« on: August 09, 2018, 03:59:11 PM »
Pulled the trigger. Will add a comment or two later . . . if time.

SOLUTIONS FOR:
Todd Holes
Glen Ellyn IL
U.S.A.

PROBLEM A: 3 Clubs
PROBLEM B: 5 Clubs
PROBLEM C: Pass | Pass
PROBLEM D: 3 Notrump
PROBLEM E: Pass
PROBLEM F: 2 Diamonds
PROBLEM G: 3 Notrump
PROBLEM H: Heart Ace

A.   3 !C . I didn’t jump-shift, so lack GF values. While 2NT is a close approximation of my values (and was my second choice), I think 3 !C does a better job of conveying my shape. 2 !C also shows the three-suited nature of my hand, but undersells the strength.
B.   5 !C . Lead directing, and also agreeing diamonds? I dunno, this may be a reach. 5 !D will be the majority “solver” answer, I think. It was my initial “duh” answer, too. But the panel sometimes has other ideas.
C.   Pass/Pass. Wimpy. This, too, I think will be the majority “solver” answer. I just could not pull the trigger on the Pass/3 !D option (or other options) with -200 too great a risk.
D.   3NT. I don’t channel my inner Bob Hamman often enough. How’s it go? "When 3 No Trump is one of the alternatives, choose it"?
E.   Pass. Very difficult choice. 3NT may very well be right, but partner could have a slew of !H and decide to “correct” to 4 !H. This is just an awkward shape to try to enter the fray.
F.   2 !D . My initial thinking went with the seemingly obvious 3 !D . I do have 10 HCP after all. But I downgraded the heck out of this quacky collection. I generally lean conservative, so the panel will likely disagree here and go with the “obvious 3 !D .”
G.   3NT. Extremely difficult. Partner is big, and probably does not have a void since there was no raise. The vulnerability makes Pass tempting. 4 !C was my second choice, but feels like an underbid. Similar to “D” above, with 3NT an alternative, I’ll take a “what the heck” approach.
H.   !H A. Declarer probably has a running diamond suit, so this lead employs similar logic to a gambling 3NT lead. I want to get a peek at dummy and get partner’s attitude.   

710
IAC & Master Solvers Club / Re: Master Solvers Club
« on: July 10, 2018, 03:57:53 AM »
Pulled the trigger:

SOLUTIONS FOR:
Todd Holes
Glen Ellyn IL
U.S.A.

PROBLEM A: 4 Hearts
PROBLEM B: 5 Hearts
PROBLEM C: Double
PROBLEM D: 4 Hearts
PROBLEM E: Pass
PROBLEM F: 2 Clubs
PROBLEM G: 3 Notrump
PROBLEM H: Spade 6

Only one was I absolutely certain about, 4 !H on "D," which means it's wrong.

Taking a flyer on G. Blast 3NT, give up on slam or a !S game. An MSC bid.

My lead on "H," which I was initially confident about, now troubles me. I like Ken's !S 9, presumably avoiding a future potential blockage. But every time I've tried that, it backfires. I sorta like the !C T too.

711
Sleight of Hand / Re: An angelic problem
« on: June 27, 2018, 07:57:38 PM »
Here you have an extra clue of course. In one of his books, Kantar pointed out that finesses never work in quizzes!

Funny but true.  ;) The quiz hands always seem to avoid the obvious.

I am reminded of your lead problem from the other day. Though I chose the conservative !H T, there was a part of me that knew it was wrong, else why would it be presented as a lead problem.

712
Sleight of Hand / Re: An angelic problem
« on: June 27, 2018, 04:57:36 PM »
Clear? No.

But knowing the opponents can be "a little clever in their discards" at least gives me pause. Having a full count on the hand, if East had jettisoned a low !C instead of the !S , we could then endplay East with a !D. He could take his two minor suit winners and would be forced to play a !S into my A-Q tenace. If this east blanked his !S K , seeing the approaching endplay, kudos to him. Doing so presented me with the opportunity to go wrong.

That said, with West having four !S remaining, and East one, I'm finessing.

Edit: All those !H discards by West are also of note. Especially the established !H J. Is he trying to further entice us to finesse? I dunno, still not clear to me.  :)

There may be a better line, but I'm not seeing it.

713
Sleight of Hand / Re: Agreements and then choices
« on: June 25, 2018, 04:28:15 PM »
Auction is over, so I'm not going to fret about that.

I have no strong feeling about any lead here.

On a different auction, I could be convinced to lead a spade. Not here though.
A diamond, presumably in the hopes of getting a ruff? Eh. Too pie-in-the-sky.
So I'll go with the vanilla-down-the-middle heart.

!H T.

714
I am perplexed. When you state upthread, “I have had a few inquiries why a few bids are not right. For simplicity sake I will bring them up and maybe someone else will take up the bastion [sic],” I interpret that as asking for input, asking for opinions, and requesting for others to chime in. Then, when you get what you asked for, you take umbrage.

I do not believe that posting what follows will have any effect. We shall see. So here goes.

“I really don’t like spending my time this way, but let’s clear some misconceptions.”

This implies that you will somehow edify the masses--the uninformed--the ignorant. It’s condescending. It also implies that your words and opinions carry more weight and authority than others. Do they? If so, why? 

“The need for a partner to echo the suit to set trump by suited bid, cue or other mechanism is not necessary 100% of the time. It is a good standby though.”

I did not state that it was necessary 100% of the time. I stated, “if a suit can be agreed to.” To insert the phrase “necessary 100%,” as though it were something I stated or implied is a strawman argument.

“The common understanding when in DOUBT about what is trump is that the last bid suit is trump. Which over-rides the need to make it something different.”

By editing my words, “common expert understanding” to “common understanding,” you change the meaning of my reply. Certainly you are aware that beginner and intermediate interpretations of a particular call will likely vary widely from those of an expert. “The common understanding when in DOUBT about what is trump is . . .” is in conflict with my preferred treatment. Why is your statement not a judgment, but mine is? As you can see, I disagree that the “last bid suit” is an optimal agreement.

“Uncontested yes, Contested no, and still need 4N for controls regardless of the pathway to 4N.”

Huh? What is so difficult about showing support via a cuebid? Your “contested no” phrase seems to be a rather definitive statement that trump can’t be agreed via a cuebid. How do you show support in a contested auction?

Also, “still need 4NT for controls” implies that it is somehow required. It isn’t.

“1 !S - 4N is very different than 1 !C -4N for the expedient reason that 2/1 nor Jacoby apply (could soloway though). Even less so, considering the auction is a competitive auction involving a minor opener.”

No kidding. And once again . . . I DID NOT STATE THAT Jacoby2NT or a GF 2/1 response did apply to a 1 !C open. This is easily verifiable by checking the replies above. But I do assume a basic 2/1 structure, with a forcing minor suit raise. Therefore, with a simple suit agreement response available (insert your pet forcing minor suit agreement response here), the auction 1 !C – 4NT is not RKC. Assuming either prior discussion, or a partner I trust to field this response properly, my “common expert understanding” statement applies here. Remember, too, that I stated that the immediate jump to 4NT was not RKCB for me. I wrote “Not for me it’s not,” and for some reason you take umbrage at that? I was not aware that my understanding of current expert practice, and my application of same, distressed you so. I’ll be sure to clear it with you going forward <sarcasm>. Feel free, however, to apply your preferred “common understanding.”

“This is the main problem with reading a manual. There may be any number of reasons for RKC and the predicated postulate is not always if no echo, then blackwood. As to why we might want to eat up all that space here are a few possible reasons. 1) with a particular hand nothing in the middle matters 2) we want to conceal a weakness 3) we want opponents to lead a certain suit without any indication to switch 4) we want to show slam intent without fear of further interference (below 5 level)”

What manual did you read? I assume you are referring to your own reading, because I did not refer to a manual. Reading, though, can elevate and improve one’s understanding about the game. I do it every day.

I will, however, refer to a “manual” now. In Kantar’s tome on RKCB, appropriately titled, Roman KeyCard Blackwood, The Final Word, he states:
“It makes sense to have a general rule governing a direct 4NT response to an opening bid. If the responder doesn’t agree opener’s suit with a game-forcing response, opener’s suit should not be considered the agreed suit. It is easy enough to agree spades with a forcing raise. In this sequence there is no agreed suit and this should be a simple ace-ask. Period.”

Similarly, with minor suits, assuming Minorwood is in place, “the auction 1 !D – 4 !D is not Minorwood. It is merely preemptive.” To create a Minorwood auction you first go through an invitational or better sequence (such as 1 !D – 2 !D).

“On a side note, last night I ran 100,000 iterations modulating hand strength of responder and a 5 card suit that isn’t clubs or spades. The results were split between needing to know the K of the trump suit and it being immaterial. Surely we must admit that if all keys are not held, there is merit to knowing all aces but then there is the problem of missing two kings outside of spades placed made 4N as a keycard or BW problematic as the only place to run is 6N.”

I’m not sure why you would limit your sim to only a five-card suit on the assumption that an immediate 4NT would or would not account for “needing to know the K of the trump suit.” That seems a strange use for the 4NT response. Or maybe I’m not understanding your paragraph above. 

“Except when in doubt, accept the last suit bid as trump as previously aforementioned. Also it isn’t about “trust,” it is about partnership fidelity and agreements.”

My use of the word “trust,” referred to trusting my pickup partner’s knowledge and understanding. Enough to field a particular bid. For example: Sitting in the IAC, or opposite an expert partner, I would expect this rather simple response (1 !S – 4 !D ) to be understood, and the 4 !D response to be fielded properly. But in the BIL, my “trust” is not quite so high. If you wish to include “trust” under the umbrella of “agreements,” fine. But trust does come into play.

As far as accepting the “last suit bid” as trump, it depends on the auction and who my partner is.
A simple example: Assume you are playing 2/1 (I think we can all agree this simplifies slam bidding over a SAYC or SA system).

The auction 1 !S – 2 !H – 2 !S – 4NT. Is it RKC?

Using your formula, it’s RKC for !S , the “last suit bid.” Fine if that is your agreement, or even, your assumption about partner’s understanding of this sequence. Is it optimal? No, not in my opinion. Why? Because the 2 !H response created a game-force and, importantly, you have an easy way to agree trump by bidding 3 !S. Kantar, by the way espouses this, as do I. This sort of meta-agreement is logical. I realize you don’t agree with this, which is fine.

Please note my use of the words “my partner,” and “my opinion.” These are my methods, my opinions, and this is my understanding of what is best.

For some reason, there seems to be a propensity to believe that every disagreement on methods, treatments, and ideas is a personal attack. It isn’t. There is a solution, which I will get to later.

“Let’s not be so dismissive yet. While you may not play them or maybe you do. It is important IF we have an alternative KeyCard ask then 4N should NOT be RKC or blackwood. Leads us back to quantitative which was posed earlier as 4N should “be something else.”

I was not dismissive, hence my mention of them. And yes of course I play other methods. But the entire discussion about what 4NT is, and what it isn’t, revolved around the rather definitive statement that “we would all play 4NT in an uncontested auction as RKC,” as well as what the best response would be over the 2 !S interference. This, then, presupposes we are not using “an alternative KeyCard ask,” else it would be mentioned as part of our agreements in the OP.

“Probably best to stay away from judgments and unilateral ideas in a forum post. Perhaps even some sarcasm too I dunno.”

Stay away from judgments? From unilateral (as determined by whom?) ideas? Um---It’s a forum.

Judgments such as this?:

1.   “Options that aren’t options . . .”
I agree with your assessment (read opinion) here. But if I had disagreed, would it then be a judgment and bad?
2.   “I think we are missing a few points.”
If it walks like a judgment, and talks like a judgment, it’s a duck.
3.   “Allow me to clarify a few things mis-informed . . .”
I am at a loss as to why this is not a judgment, yet others are?
4.   “We would all play 4NT in an uncontested auction as RKC . . .”
I disagree and stated as much. And I logically laid out my reasons. Why is your statement and your opinion an “idea,” and mine a judgment--apparently carrying with it some negative connotation?
5.   “6 !C unequivocably [sic] says ‘I have those values and my suit.’”
Maybe. I’ve probably encountered a similar jump to slam at some point myself. Regardless, why is this not considered a judgment? What if someone were to disagree about the unequivocal definition? Would that be considered a judgment and unilateral idea? Does Agree = good, disagree = bad?
6.   “4NT is clear as a day.”
I disagreed and explained my preferred response. The “clear as a day” statement is very emphatic. I would liken it to claiming that it is best. Why is my statement and opinion of what is best not equally clear as a day? (FWIW -- The current BW poll on 3 !D or 4NT as a response in the auction above is running 42:1. The votes that intrigue me, however, are the 4 who voted for Double, one from a very good player.)
7.   “But let’s clear some misconceptions.”
This sounds like a disagreement is coming. And it did. Everything that followed was in direct contrast with my opinion. These are all judgments (read opinion). As are Ken’s. As are mine.
8.   This: “I admonish our members not to be categorically anchored to right or wrong dichotomy,” combined with this, “Keep judgments and categorizations away from forum posts . . .”
Seems to be in direct conflict with points 1 through 7 above. I can only assume that in the future the choice of words will be a bit less dogmatic.   

The seemingly innocuous statement above that, “This wasn’t to single anyone out” is in direct contrast with what it actually did. Every. Single. Statement. made was in response to a direct quote (with some slight edits) of mine. How much more “singled out” can you get? 

Big deal, so you disagree with me, as I disagree with you. Disagreement is not a personal gauntlet thrown down. A simple solution that I propose is that I stay as far away from your posts as possible, lest my opinions ruffle feathers. I will stick to my own posts (and others), exchanging ideas and opinions—and yes judgments—with those willing to accept other’s opinions.

A simple forum guideline that I will suggest follows:
Anyone should feel welcome to play any methods they choose, and to have any opinion they wish. Additionally, anyone should feel welcome to contribute to the forum—to express those opinions, and to agree--or disagree--with others as they see fit. As long as the opinions are conveyed without insult, invective, or personal attack—then we have a viable forum. If, however, posters are unwilling to accept the ideas of others (this does not mean agree), and feel compelled to chastise others and their ideas, then they should refrain from participating.

Lastly -- THIS IS A FORUM--OF COURSE WE WILL HAVE DIFFERENCES OF OPINION!

715
Options that aren’t options?
 
I agree that both 2NT, 3NT, and 3 !S are unacceptable, presumably for obvious reasons, though I will explain anyway. The reason for my explanations (especially 3 !S) will become evident. To begin with, neither 2NT nor 3NT is forcing. Therefore, 2NT risks languishing in a part-score, and 3NT (which is where you would rest unless partner had a monster), does not do justice to the strength of the hand, quite possibly missing slam. Both are easy to dismiss.

What about 3 !S? If I had a powerful hand with !C support (long !C), this is how I would respond. Responding 3 !S would presumably also deny four !H, since with that hand I would likely—but not always--begin with a negative double. So, the basic principle that applies is this: if a suit can be agreed to below the keycard ask, either by way of a forcing auction, or in the case of interference by the opponents via a cuebid, then a subsequent 4NT is RKC. If the “suit agreement” path is possible but skipped, then 4NT is not RKC. I believe this to be a common expert understanding.

That thinking then precludes the use of the immediate 4NT response over 2 !S as RKC for the simple reason that trump can be agreed with a cuebid.

That same principle can be applied to auctions without interference. For example: 1 !S – 4NT. Is it RKC? Not for me it’s not. Why? Because trump can be agreed in many ways, either through a game-force response such a Jacoby 2NT, or a splinter, or a 2/1 response followed by suit agreement. This then frees up 4NT for something else. The current expert standard treatment of a direct 4NT response (skipping possible suit agreement) is Blackwood. Plain vanilla Blackwood. Aces only. (Yes--really!)

This is a rare bird, used primarily with a long, solid, independent suit where all five “key cards” would not provide the desired information. Picture, for example, this hand opposite a 1 !S open: !S x !H AKQJTxxx !D Kx !C AK. Good luck with setting !H as trump. Likewise, good luck with an immediate 4NT being RKC. Do we really want to hear about partner’s !S K? Maybe if he responds with three keys. But what if it’s two?
Now, would I expect that understanding from a pickup? Not likely—unless of course it were a person I trusted to know this. More likely would be that 4NT is, more often than I would care for it to be, “BBO Blackwood.”

Additionally, there are other agreements which can be used for a minor-suit key-card ask and suit agreement. That gets into a completely different set of agreements about minor suit slam exploration, probably best saved for a separate thread.

But here, with the hand in front of us--getting back to the choices of possible responses over the 2 !S interference--I simply cannot imagine anything other than 3 !D. The statement that “4NT is clear as day” is, in my opinion, a bit of an overbid. It would not occur to me.

716
IAC & Master Solvers Club / Re: Master Solvers Club
« on: June 14, 2018, 05:53:58 PM »
Looking at PROBLEM A only:

Ken's thinking . . .
PROBLEM A: 3 Spades
This shows !H and a minor in BWS. I assume 3NT by partner asks for the minor.
If partner bids 3NT I bid 4 !H. I think he will then have a pretty clear picture of my hand.
If partner bids 4 !C, as he well might do if he holds 5=1=1=6 shape, I am still bidding 4 !H but I will not be so happy about it.

and Joe's . . .
A: I should have looked at the system notes, but again I'm trying to answer as I would behave on the table. I find this gives me more insight into my assumptions about bidding or principles that might govern my decisions (which I don't always recognize explicitly until I do these kinds of exercises).  Anyway, I also had a thought about leaping micheals but thought it shouldn't apply here (Although we all know that 2s is often bid on air, just like a preempt). I went with 3s as most obviously showing hearts, and an unknown minor which I will likely bid next no matter what p says.

was similar to my initial thinking. However, employing a two-suited bid somewhat implies equal (or at least similar) length. 

My first guess (though my third choice) was to use a two-suited Leaping Michaels. But per Ken's post about BWS above--it ain't part of the system! I had to look it up (probably a good idea for a bidding quiz reliant on a specific system). I had thought it might be part of BWS. It's Larry Cohen who espouses (or mentions) it. He states, "Note: Even rarer (but popular among many expert pairs) is to use Roman Jump Overcalls [using this interchangeably with Leaping Michaels] after the opponents Bid and Raise a Major.  For example, (1 !S) Pass (2 !S)  4 !D = 5-5 or better in diamonds and hearts.  In that case, 3 !S would ask for a stopper for 3NT.  As usual, this is dangerous stuff unless thoroughly discussed and remembered. Without discussion, the jump overcall would just be preemptive and natural."

I still think I prefer Cohen's method better, but it's good to know "our system" for the purposes of these quizzes!

I may as well quote BWS while I'm at it: "When the opponents raise a one-bid to two, there are no special system agreements other than those listed here:
(a) a cue-bid shows majors over a minor, unbid major plus unspecified minor over a major;
(b) a jump-overcall is preemptive or sacrifice-suggestive.
"

If I could be certain that 3NT by partner "asks for the minor," as Ken suggests, a 3 !S call (intending a 4 !H followup) would have more appeal. But I have serious doubts that 3NT will be available. I think it quite likely that the level of bidding will reach 4 !S before we can blink. If that happens, the opportunity to show the suit disparity will have been lost. By bidding the !H suit first, then introducing the !D suit (most likely at a very high level) the "primary !H suit" with secondary !D will have been communicated.

Another possibility that occurs to me is to take Fido for a walk by slipping in a quiet 3 !H. But this will probably not win any MSC poll points!

I think for now I stick with my initial 4 !H, holding the !D suit back until I need it.

A fun problem!

717
IAC & Master Solvers Club / Re: Master Solvers Club
« on: June 13, 2018, 12:42:58 PM »
Todd, you will be happy to know that we agree on only 2 answers so far.

Joe, please let me know on which two answers we match. I must change those answers at once!  ;)

718
IAC & Master Solvers Club / Re: Master Solvers Club - August 2019
« on: June 12, 2018, 05:19:56 PM »
My first stab at August follows:

A: 4 !H. 5 !H is tempting, but for now 4 !H. The suit disparity leads me to believe that a two-suited overcall is not best. Plus, in this auction, Leaping Michaels should apply, so that “two-suited” bid would be 4 !D to show the red suits, which is a bit of a fib with this 7-5. This auction is not over.
Second choice: 5 !H. Third: 4 !D

B: 4 !H. I am missing something. Where are the  !S? If partner is 5-5 in the reds, and East is not showing a five-card !S suit with either 3 !S or a UvU 3 !H (instead opting to penalize !D), then partner likely has three !S. Which would give opener 5 !S and a 6 card !C suit (or similar). Partner is very short in !C, either stiff or void. If this assessment is correct, is an immediate 5 !H better?

C: 3 !D. I can't force game with this, can I?
Second choice: Double. Third: 3 !H

D: 4 !H. Partner is still groping for strain. He knows of my six !D , should he know I have seven? Best to keep it low and tell partner of my delayed !H support. Since I bypassed  !S (presumably denying four), partner's 3 !S may only have been a grope for 3NT. If partner continues over 4 !H, I'll know he wanted more.
Second choice: 4 !D. Third: 4 !C (not fond of this, it's murky)

E: Pass. They are already headed to game. The double only gives them another bid (redouble) along the way to communicate.
Second choice: 4 !S.

F: 2 !C. I am usually loathe to open these types of hands 2 !C. 4NT, if it is a specific Ace ask, has some appeal. I’ll have to look it up. Not sure if it’s BWS.
Second choice: 4NT. Third: 1 !S

G: 3 !D. Where I live. Though at MPs, the double (to get the !S in), and 3NT both have merit.
Second choice: 3NT. Third: Double

H: !S 6. Standout lead. Majority choice? Leading from “Ace-empty” is not appealing. What am I missing?
Second choice: Same as the first.

This will go through two or three "edits" before I pull the trigger in July. In a week I'll revisit these choices and think to myself, "What on earth was I thinking?"  :o ??? ;)

719
IAC & Master Solvers Club / Master Solvers Club - August 2019
« on: June 12, 2018, 12:14:58 AM »
August MSC problems are attached.

They can also be viewed here: https://www.bridgeworld.com/indexphp.php?page=/pages/msc/mastersolversmainpage.html

Deadline for responses is July 10, 9:00 a.m. EST.

720
Good summary on the math, Ken.

(Small typo on referring to dropping the !H K.)

Though we end in with the same number, I go about it differently. You're the math dude--I am not--so correct me if I'm off here.  ???

I add the 4-3 and 5-2 and 6-1 splits with the !H K dropping. So . . .

4-3 split is 62%. Honor dropping is 3/7*.62=26%
5-2 split is 31%. Honor dropping is 2/7*.31=9%
6-1 split is ~7%. Honor dropping is 1/7*.07=1%

Roughly 36%. (Bear with my rounding as this was done in my head.)
So we take the failure rate of that calculation, which is 64%, and multiply it by the finesse for !D K calculation (50%) to arrive at 32%.
Adding the 36% to 32% gives us 68%.

None of this accounts for the bizarro 7-0 split or 6-1 with an overruff. As you stated, highly unlikely. Subtracting those percentages would still give us well over 60%. Attempting to calculate that at the table would hurt my head.

So combining chances by first attempting to drop the !H honor gives us a higher probability of success than the simple  !H finesse. Knowing that, though, should lead us to the line you chose.

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