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Would you want to be in this slam?

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jcreech:
This hand rotated came up in yesterday's Survivor tourney (Dlr: S, Vul: Both):

 !S KQT2
 !H Q876
 !D AQ7
 !C 97


 !S
 !H AT53
 !D 83
 !C AKQT432
1 !C     2 !S      X        P
3 !H       P       4 !H     P
6 !H       P                        (X was negative showing hearts)

The first question, is would you want to be in this slam?

The second question is, how would you play this in slam?  The lead was the !S A.

Masse24:
Yes, I am fine with being in this slam.

I ruff trick one (obviously) since bringing in the trump suit for no losers is close to zero chance. I now have two spade winners to jettison my losing diamond. The club suit is my source of tricks.

We have a lot of clubs, so I'm very worried about a ruff. That influences how I play the trump suit, which is to lay down the Ace, then low toward dummy's Queen. This is the moment of truth. I can duck or I can cover whatever LHO plays. It's a guess.

Should be a bit better than 50% I think.

kenberg:
I do not at all wish to be in this slam. You did not ask about the auction, but I don't agree with it. North's negative double pretty much forces me to bid at least 3 !H whenever I have four of them. To my mind, that means that 3 !H is not forcing. If I have a hand strong enough to be in 4 !H opposite the X I would bid 4 !H. But, on the auction shown, I am making a passable 3 !H call and then, when partner, perhaps stretching, bids 4 !H I raise to 6 !H. So my bidding amounts to: Partner, you can pass 3 !H and we will play in a partscore, or you can raise 3 !H to 4 !H and then I will bid the slam, but under no circumstances can we play 4 !H.

If the !D k is offside I am going down if a !D is led at T1. Certainly W should think a bit about why on earth S could jump to 6 !H. A spade void seems likely, so a !D lead is not silly. After the favorable opening lead I still have to develop hearts and with that 2 !S bid on my left I am not optimistic.

Added: I thought a little more over morning coffee. Perhaps S sees the 3 !H as forcing? I guess a pair could play that fast arrival is on ere, opener with four hearts and a minimum bids 4 !H, not 3 !H,  over the X. But this would mean that 3 !H becomes an impossible contract to reach. since 3 !H is forcing. And this means that N cannot make a negative X over 2 !S unless s/he is prepared to hear 4 !H from partner on a minimum. n the given N hand that would be ok but it seems to me we want to be able to make a negative double even on a bit less than N has. Anyway, if  the X shows four hearts and enough strength to play in 4, ie if we are playing fast arrival, then 3 !H is forcing and the raise to 4 !H shows a min.

But I think 3 !H is passable, the raise to 4 !H shows enough to play in 4, and, if so, then I think the bid of 3 !H followed by 6 !H is a way of precluding playing in 4 !H.

Now about the play.
 I agree that the !S A helped us out. Helped a lot. I also agree that ruffs are a serious danger. So after ruffing the spade I lay down the !H A and a small !H and hope. Maybe W held Kx or Jx and the play is easy. If the first three hearts I see are the 2 and 4 under the A and the 9 when I lead the small !H then I need W to still hold either the K or the J, meaning E started with Jx or Kx. I suppose I play the Q. If hearts are 4-1, this hand will be a problem.

Masse24:

--- Quote from: kenberg on January 16, 2020, 12:10:37 PM ---You did not ask about the auction, but I don't agree with it.

--- End quote ---

Neither did I when I saw it. 3 !H is too timid.

I would bid 4 !H , or if feeling especially frisky, make a stronger slam move with 3 !S .

So, either:
1. 1 !C - (2 !S) - X - (P)
    4 !H -   (P)   - ??

or

2. 1 !C - (2 !S) -   X - (P)
    3 !S -   (P)    -  3NT - (P)
    4 !H -   (P)    -  ??           

But I think I'm still okay with being in the slam. But maybe not. If morning coffee is a requirement, I've not had any, so this is a "no-caffeine" assessment.

jcreech:
Ken,

I largely agree with your analysis (largely, because I haven't taken the same time you have to analyze the possibilities and I want an out if there is something missed).  I would only like being in this slam if the opponents lead the !S A (as they did). 

Once the !S A is led, then I like my chances, though maybe a little less than 50% on Todd's line, maybe a bit higher if I lead small to the Q first planning to finesse the T next.

In the event, two other bid and made slam - one in hearts, one in clubs.  Both took Todd's line when it came to the hearts.

As Ken surmises, the slam is scuttled on a diamond lead, and without the pitches on the spades 6 !H has little chance (and on the lay of the cards, no chance).

I was thinking that a potentially useful treatment for a hand like this is to have a jump to 4 !C show the sort of hand that partner has - I have 4 hearts and a source of tricks in clubs - sort of along the lines of a 1 !C - 1 !H; 4 !C auction.  I do not remember anyone suggesting something like this, but if agreed upon, could make sense.

LHO (leader)
 !S AJ9543
 !H K9
 !D T92
 !C 86

RHO
 !S 876
 !H J42
 !D KJ654
 !C J5

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