SOLUTIONS FOR:
James Creech
Gen Allen VA
U.S.A.

PROBLEM A: 4 Clubs                    80
PROBLEM B: Double                   100
PROBLEM C: 2 Spades                100
PROBLEM D: 3 Diamonds              50
PROBLEM E: 3 Spades                  70
PROBLEM F: 2 Notrump              100
PROBLEM G: 2 Spades                  60
PROBLEM H: Diamond Jack           60
               Total:                         620

I didn't even think about a trump lead on H - not on my radar - maybe I am just jaded because in matches recently, I have seen solid 5-baggers thwarted in a trump contract by six small in an opponent's hand.  I did not even want to possibly pickle my partner when trump is being introduced at the 6-level.

I hated most of my calls, but I hated worse the alternatives.  I guess it is still good to be above 600, just disappointing not to be higher.  On to next month's drawing and quartering.

The February deadline for entries is coming up this Sunday, so I thought I would run out my preliminary thoughts.  I know we will hear from Todd, but I hope that we will hear from some of the others as well this time.  I always enjoy and find thought provoking how others are thinking through these sorts of problems.

Now for my thoughts:

Problem A:  I have really been stuck on this decision.  This hand has so much slam potential, but practically demands a preempt.  The hearts are key.  If partner has the right .  A grand is possible on as little as Axxxx A xxxx Axx and a slam on as little as Axxxx x xxxx Axx.  The question becomes – how to find out if partner has the necessary tickets. I do not have a good descriptive bid available.   If a fit showing jump shift were available, I might have tried that. So I am stuck with least-lie types of bids.  I am tempted to try a forcing NT to see what partner rebids.  I am tempted to bid 4 and give up on what might be and settle for what is.  I am thinking about looking to see if exclusion blackwood is available, because I would at least find out about keycards outside of the club suit. 

Problem B:  Dbl, intending to pull to to suggest two places to play and something extra.

Problem C:  I have four defensive tricks and they are red and we are not.  This may be a bit low for matchpoints, but pass.

Problem D:  This is one of those hands that gets both better and worse the more you find out.  My best cards keep getting better, but Jxx is a poor stopper at best, and Qxxxxx is a poor suit to introduce in an invitational sequence.  I feel I have too few hearts to make an invitational raise there, too poor of spades to make an invitational NT bid, too poor of a diamond suit to bid an invitational 3 , but too good of a hand not to make an invitational move.  Which is the least lie?  Right now, I am leaning toward 3 .

Problem E:  This sequence is invitational.  I have two , when I am permitted to bid 1NT with a singleton and I have a mximum in prime values.  The question is more how do I accept, rather than will I accept.  Due to the puppet, I don’t know if I have denied three spades at this point or not, or if 3 is throwing the invitation back to partner or accepts the invite.  I have too many questions that require system research.

Problem F:  It sounds like partner has a 1-3-(5-4) minimum.  I would like to bid 2NT, but fear that partner will bid on with the wrong hand, so I am inclined to pass.

Problem G:  At this point, I almost wish that I had opened 1NT with the singleton ace.  This is not a good hand for a moysian fit – the spade ruffs would come in the long hand. I am also not in a good position to describe my strength and the diamond suit is too short and weak to think about jump raising myself.  The spades are too weak for NT without help or to convert the double.  I think the best course of action is to throw things back to partner to describe their hand better.  I am leaning toward 2 – I have something good over here, tell me more about your hand.

Problem H:  Neither suit bid by the opponents feels right.  Clubs may turn into immediate pitches for declarer, while hearts may make it easy for declarer.  A spade could be right, I do not think I am looking at a ruff sluff on the go situation, and if we have a trick, it could go away quickly.  Diamonds could also be right, but it may also turn into something that gives the contract away.   I am definitely thinking toward a pointed-suit jack, just not sure which way to go yet.

Dlr: East
Vul: E-W
          North
            AK8
            7
            T98654
            QT7

West                    East
                          QJ9432
  KT862               AQ3
  AKQ72             
  J93                   AK64

          South
            T765
            J954
            J3
            852


Auction:
East    South    West      North         
 1        P        2          P
 3        P        4          P
 5        P        5          P
 5        P        6          P
  P          P

At the table, this was the auction.  I ruffed the first trick, hoping to find the hearts  and diamonds breaking and thinking that by ruffing  early and if the hand with the shorter hearts had a longer diamond, it might be an easy pitch.  Two rounds of hearts had me realizing that I might be scrambling for down one.

Hoki said that I should have let the first trick run to my hand, and pull two rounds of trump to see if they break.  When they do not, finish pulling trump and hope that there is a three suit squeeze on North.  It looks like there is.  The diagram below shows the hand with North yet to pitch on the fourth heart.  There have been two pitches so far – a spade and a diamond. 

          North
            AK
           
            9865
            QT7

West                    East
                          QJ94
  8                     
  KQ72               
  J93                   AK64

          South
            T765
           
            J
            852

If a diamond is pitched, then play three rounds of diamonds, putting North in.  North has to exit.  (a) If a club, you have no choice but to let it run to the jack, then you have the rest of the tricks.  (b) If a spade, ruff, cash the diamond, and North is squeezed again.

If a spade is pitched, cross to dummy with a club, ruff a spade, and take top tricks.

If a club is pitched, then it seems like North can counter any continuation.  Since GIB says that 6 is makeable, then it is more difficult than I can solve so far.  However, I would find pitching a club far more difficult than the other options.

SOLUTIONS FOR:
James Creech
Gen Allen VA
U.S.A.

PROBLEM A: Pass
PROBLEM B: 4 Notrump
PROBLEM C: Pass
PROBLEM D: Double
PROBLEM E: 1 Notrump
PROBLEM F: 2 Notrump
PROBLEM G: 3 Hearts
PROBLEM H: Spade 10

These are my guesses.  Most did not change from my preliminary thoughts.  Problem B was my biggest hurdle.  There were so many bids that I thought about (starting with 3 ), but what it came down to is that I cannot believe that partner does not have at least one key card for the jump support, so this bid will answer my question about how many without getting too high.

I thought it interesting that Todd and I switched positions on Problem E; I viewed that as being my next biggest hurdle. 

Good luck to all who participate.

The North 3 came from the previous board (lol) and should be put back before either board is moved.  Thanks for catching another typo.  Original post has been corrected again.

I agree with Todd, that if I were on lead, I would lead 2nd best in most of my regular partnerships, and the 9 in undiscussed partnerships.

However, at both tables, a 4th best was led.  At my table, when I got in, I shifted to the K; at the other table, the person in my seat told me that because their partner had signaled for a , that was their shift. 

Nonetheless, given the actual layout, I am happy I was on defense, but thought it interesting as a play problem.

Dlr: West
Vul: Both

          North
            J5
            AJ83
            42
            QJ953

West                    East
  9864                 KQT2
  Q764                92
  K53                   QT8
  42                     KT76

          South
            A73
            KT5
            AJ976
            A8


Auction:
South    West      North     East     
 1 NT        P         2         P
 2          P         3 NT       P
    P          P         

This hand came up in a spur team game and was challenging to play. 

At both tables, West led a 4th best .  Then play diverged. 

At the table that was successful, declarer inserted the J, winning.  Q , covered by East and won in hand.  8 overtaken in dummy, followed by a third , won by East while West played an encouraging .  Dutifully, East returned a , West winning the K.  West now returned to s, won in hand by declarer.  Declarer now tried the A , and seeing everyone following, cleared the suit by losing to East’s Q.  East cashed out, relinquishing the last few tricks to declarer.  The defense ended up with four minor suit tricks.

At the table that was not successful, declarer won the opening lead in hand with the 10, Then tried A , to the J, losing to East’s K.  With no signal, it was easy for East to shift to a top and continuation.  Declarer won the second , shifted to the K , and a to the 8.  Hoping for the 3-3, declarer now cashed the Q , West pitching his last .  At this point, declarer should have realized the cause was lost, cashing out for down one, but instead abandoned the A to set up an orphan , allowing the defense to gather in three s, two s and a 1D.

The key to making this hand is deciding which seven-card minor to develop and how to play it.  But I am uncertain whether there is enough information to make the choice that works logically.  You can reasonably force 8 tricks, possibly losing the lead once (1 , 4 , 1 , and 2 ).  The best options I see involves:

• drag the Q through East and hoping for a cover and the suit breaks 3-3, or that you can judge that it is not breaking and can shift to a plan
• play A and another hoping for 3-3 or that the 10 is onside and you guess to finesse
• lead a to the 9, then a to the J, hoping that East started with HTx

None of these options are particularly enticing, although the first can combines chances.    However, if the K is with West, a will block the even if they break 3-3.  But as Harry Callahan asks in Dirty Harry, “Do you feel lucky?”

On this hand, I was glad to be on defense, and had an easy shift to the K knowing that by inference, partner also had four with me.

SOLVER: James Creech
        Gen Allen VA
        U.S.A.

Your Solutions for the January 2019 Contest 
-------------------
PROBLEM A: 2 Diamonds 100
PROBLEM B: 3 Hearts 70
PROBLEM C: 4 Spades 100
PROBLEM D: 2 Hearts 60
PROBLEM E: Pass 40
PROBLEM F: 1 Notrump 60
PROBLEM G: 4 Notrump 50
PROBLEM H: Diamond 10  70


550 - Wow, my choices were brutalized all over the place.  Problem E was my biggest disappointment.  I really do not see my hand improving enough to bid 3 when partner did not overcall directly.  Compete to that level, yes, but not directly.  Like Ken, I really haven't changed my mind (except maybe the A in the lead problem).

Congratultions to Todd.  His 740 was the third highest score on the honor roll (tied 5-7 in terms of placing).  Well done!