Show Posts

This section allows you to view all posts made by this member. Note that you can only see posts made in areas you currently have access to.


Messages - jcreech

Pages: 1 ... 3 4 [5] 6 7 ... 46
61
IAC & Master Solvers Club / Re: 2023 February MSC
« on: January 16, 2023, 10:20:02 PM »
February MSC SUMMARY (Part 1)– Jeff Rubens, Director

Problem A  4 !H  (Masse24, JCreech, BluBayou, CCR3, VeredK)

Imps  East-West vulnerable
You, South, hold:

♠ A Q    K Q 10 8 7 4    A K J 5 2   ♣ —

SOUTH   WEST   NORTH   EAST
  ——      ——      Pass      4 ♣
   ?*         
*BWS: 4 NT natural

What call do you make?

The central theme to the answers of this problem is "Preempts work;" they eat up valuable space that could be used to explore level and strain.  The hand has a lot of potential.  You are 6-5 in the red suits, with first-round control of three suits, and second-round in the fourth.  Slam has clear potential with minimal help from partner and reasonably-breaking suits.  However, partner is a passed hand,  and the bidding suggests anything but reasonably-breaking suits.  The three primary options seem to be to go low (bidding a game), go high (bidding a slam), or try to find the middle ground (solicit cooperation from partner). 

4    100   Bridge World Panel (BWP) 33%   Bridge World solvers (BWS) 53%   Intermediate-Advanced Club (IAC) 63%
Taking the easy way out.  Oren Kriegel says "I'm too simple to bid anything else."  This was the majority choice of the solvers, and a plurality choice for the Panel.  Carl Hudecek asks "Has it become unfashionable to have full-values-plus when one makes a call?"  Ralph Katz points out that "We might fail here or be cold for a grand, but I am not going to shoot on the hope that partner has two needed cards."  Masse24 thinks "It’s a 30-point deck and I’m looking at two-thirds of it. We need so little from partner to make slam a good bet. But I don’t have a good way to convey that. What is 5 Clubs? Some huge hand with club shortness obviously. Anyway, preempts work."  JCreech argues that "Preempts work!  I will flip-flop on my answer until the very last day but for now it is the simple overcall.  Spades could be right if partner has a boatload, either red suit could be right with a modest fit.  Is there a sensible route to slam, if it is there?  Probably not, even though ♠ xxxxx    Jx    xx   ♣ xxxx would certainly have a  play. ... 4 !H was going low, partly because of partner's initial pass.  I also know I did not want to commit to the five-level when it might go down, but I also know that in the back of my mind I knew I could always bid 5 !D over competition in either black suit."  Billy Eisenberg hopes that "Maybe I will get a second chance."  Eric Stoltz sees that "There are holes in every suit, so I take the low road.  If five clubs comes back around to me, I can bid five diamonds."  David Berkowitz: "An unfavorable-vulnerability four clubs is enough of a warning for me; I will go low and hope for the best.  It is not as if anything else is as attractive."  BluBayou: "If our majors were flipped,  DOUble, then 4S over 4H might get 20+ votes. But here,  DOUble, then 5H over 4S surely won't come close to that.   The best way to recover from the underbid most uf us will be making here is for the opps  to somehow come up with a club raise,  so we can rebid 5D."  John Swanson: "I have a recollection that this or a similar situation arose at a regional tournament.  East held 0=6=0=7 and the winning call was pass.  Even so, I can't stop myself from venturing four hearts."

5 ♣   90   BWP 26%   BWS 11%  IAC No solvers
Several view 4 !H as a give up and feel that the cue-bid places the focus on diamonds and a major.  Jerry Stamatov feels "I need very little opposite to make a slam.  I will bid six clubs over five of a red uit or five notrump (to show better hearts than diamonds) over five spades."  My problem is that this is a unilateral approach about level, though it does seek cooperation about strain.  Being at the four-level is not necessarily a sure thing, so do I want to gamble on the six-level?  Fleisner and Friesner have appropriate fears: "A heart bid would bury the diamond suit, and in any case it is not clear how many hearts to bid.  We may wind up playing in a heart contract from the wrong side, but partner could hold the spade king; if not, the opening bidder will need to find a spade lead."  As does Jill Meyers: "Showing a big two-suiter.  The hand is much too strong for four hearts, and I would not be well-placed if I doubled and partner advanced four spades."  Robert Wolff: "Partner perhaps should realize that various slams are in the mix, although six spades is unlikely when North passed originally.  Yes, there is also room for a disaster, but how could that not be a possibility whatever South does?"  And Joey Silver's worries are certainly valid: "Not double, because I don't want to face an opening-lead problem or guess what to do over four spades.  Instead, I'll gamble on slam, intending to raise five of a red suit or bid six diamonds over five spades."  Tongue firmly in cheek, Phillip Alder writes "I will probably havve company in suggesting that four nonrump natural is not best."  So much for the hint on this problem!

5 NT   80   BWP 19%   BWS 4%  IAC No solvers
Pick-a-slam drew some support.  Kamil and Sherman "Four hearts is a bit too wimpy for us.  Partner will pass that on most hands, even some cold for a grand slam.  It's not explicit in the system, but by analogy with other Bridge World Standard methods, five clubs would show the majors."  But isn't this putting the cart before the horse; level before strain?  Ira Chorush: "As an extension of pisk-a-slam, this should show the red suits.  With spades and a red suit, intervenor would need to start with five clubs."  But wait a minute, is it pick-a-slam, or something else?  Frank Merblum says "Most drive to slam, this shows diamonds plus a major.  Five clubs directly would show either a huge three-suiter or the majors."  Eric Kokish writes:  "There's a case for playing this as natural, but without that agreement five notrump is big red. This is a decent description, if an overbid of sorts."  And John Hurd gropes: "I hope partner is on the same page as I am with these meanings:  five clubs is majors, five notrump is diamonds and a major, six clubs is diamonds and a major with first-round club control."

Double   80   BWP 15%   BWS 21%  IAC 38%
Perhaps that is why there is still support for the tried and true double.  Boye Brogeland: "I have learnt from Zia that when the opponents preempt, survival take precedence.  So my immediate reaction was to bid four hearts, but that would be too pessimistic.  I hope to survive with five hearts over four spades or driving to slam over aa red-suit bid."  Kit Woolsey plans his rebids:  "Then, over four spades, five hearts, which shows extra strength and keeps diamonds (and even spades) in the picture.  If partner passes the double, that might be okay.  This plan risks that four hearts in our highest making contract, but the gains appear to compromise."  Bart Bramley thinks "Defending should be fine at these colors.  Otherwise, I will raise a red suit to six or bid five hearts over four spades (and then six diamonds over five spade - I'm stubborn)."  YleeXotee argues that "It's a 3 loser hand, so a suit won't do it for initial bid."  WackoJack believed the hand is "Too good for 4.  Not sure what 5 would mean.  Safest to double and then bid 5 over partner’s expected 4♠.  Problem:  If partner instead bids 4NT which I assume would be natural then I would like to bid 6♣ to show the void.  However, partner might well bid 7♠ with a hole when 7 was a laydown.  So over 4NT I would be conservative and bid 6."  And Arthur Robinson laments "But when I joined the panel we did not have hands like this."

Four hearts may be too wimpy, but one thing is clear, there is a lot of mud surrounding the alternatives.  The moderator, Jeff Rubens, concludes with a call for system  refinements:  "It's clear that a partnership will often face some difficult guessing when an opponent opens at the four-level.  What is hard to understand is why we do not have principles that yield the meanings of basic actio after such an obstruction."  In past problems, getting the strain right was often the most important consideration, but a lot of the Panel were focused on the level, with no clear, consistent approach to getting to the right strain.  Perhaps that is why the wimps won out



Problem B  3 !D  (VeredK, CCR3, BluBayou)

Matchpoints  Both sides vulnerable
You, South, hold:

♠ 10 3    10 8 4 2    Q 10 8 5   ♣ Q 4 3

SOUTH   WEST   NORTH   EAST
  ——      ——      1 ♠         2 ♣
  Pass      3 ♣     Double     Pass
 ?         
What call do you make?

What do you do with a hand whose values are so soft, its KnR (3.4) is less than its four HCPs.  Without partner forcing you to bid (unless you plan to convert partner's takeout double), this is a clear pass, early and often.  With the takeout double, you have three choices, none of which are particularly palatable (though I halfway expected Todd to blurt out 3 NT, adding a fourth choice and citing Hamman).  I agree with Sami Kehela who bids 3 !D "Today.  But three hearts tomorrow and three spades the day after."
 
3    100   BWP 48%   BWS 28%  IAC 38%
Choice number 1:  Bid your length and strength.  BluBayou says "I will bid my one card [other than their trump queen].  If partner isn't coming again with a heart rebid,  I would rather be somewhere else.   In fact I DO rather be someplace else!"  Carl Hudecek writes "Partner, whose most likely pattern is 5=3=4=1, may hold three nice hearts and four mediocre diamonds, in which case we are more likely to be able to scramble eight to 10 trick more easily in diamonds than in hearts."  I agree with Carl's assessment of the general shape, but why can't the hearts and diamonds be reversed?  Ira Chorush has a clear and correct assessment:  "Assuming that the club queen is valueless offensively I have about a king less than partner expects.  North most likely has seven red cards, divided four-three, but there is no guarantee that the four-card suit is hearts.  A bid in diamonds does not encourage partner to go on, so it is most likely to produce a plus score or a minimal minus."  Bart Bramley is "Hoping to hit partner's four-bagger; but, if not, a Moysian fit in diamonds will be a lot better than in hearts.  Pass would be too desparate."  Kit Woolsey: "The diamonds are stronger than the hearts, partner is as likely to have four diamonds as four hearts, and he might be able to bid three hearts."  Robert Wolff "Leaves room for partner to bid three hearts with five-four and at most three diamonds."  Frank Merblum: "Safety first when partner's red-suit distribution is not clear."  Joey Silver: "With a dearth of values, I look for the safest and most-flexible bid, and maybe even a plus score?"  Kamil and Sherman think "Three diamonds need not end the auction, and it may be our best port in a storm."  Danny Kleinman is "Bidding the best suit when survival rather than game is in prospect."  David Berkowitz "I would like to bid partner's four-card suit, but my ouija board is out.  With a strong 6=3=3=1, North might be reluctant to correct three hearts but might well correct three diamonds."

3    70   BWP 22%   BWS 53%  IAC 63%
Choice number 2:  Gambling that partner has both majors.  Oren Kriegel writes "I'll try to be bold (but no bold enouigh to play for penalty).  Three hearts has a decent upside - catch an eight-card fit in a high-scoring strain - and deosn't seem much more risky than other guesses."  Masse24 agrees:  "Although pass is possible at Matchpoints, it’s a bit much with these poor, scattered values. Partner is asking me to bid, and since the major scores better, I go with it."  As does Eric Stoltz: "It's matchpoints, so I bid the suit that scores highest (at imps I might well bid the stronger suit)."  Zia thinks "Partner is hoping for a major.  I have one."  YleeXotee "going low with this I hope. not ready to bail out on 3s."  JCreech: "What worries me about bidding either red suit is that partner could have continued showing his shape, so bidding either could fall into a poorish fit."  While WackoJack ponders:  "Say partner has ♠ AKxxx, KQJx, KJx, ♣ x.  Then 4 looks good.  Would partner make a re-opening double with less?  Maybe?  Also it is match points so go with the field 3."  Clearly the Panel is of one mind:  Billy Eisenberg: "Seems obvious."  Jerry Stamatov: "Tough decision."

3 ♠   40   BWP 7%   BWS 8%  IAC No solvers
Choice number 3:  Going with the certain seven-card fit.  Choosing either red suit could be wrong.  You may be ruffing on the short side, but with your anemic holdings, you could also be ruffing from the strong holdings.  With five or six, you may be able to survive ruffing from the long side better.  John Hurd thinks "Since partner would have bid hearts with five, he will frequently hold six spades.  Three diamonds seems wrong - likely a winner only if partner is 5=3=4=1, and three of a major scores more."  Ralph Katz feels that "If a red suit is the correct strain at the game level, partner will bid.  If North has only five spades we might be in the wrong partscore."

Pass   50   BWP 19%   BWS 10%  IAC No solvers
For those in the mood for feast or famine, pass is also an option.  Jill Meyers is willing to play the doubled contract: "Its matchpoints and I'll take my shot.  At imps, I would be a chicken and bid three hearts, even though that might land us in an uncomfortable four-three fit."  As is Phillip Alder: "I would bid three of a red suit at imps."  Fleisher and Friesner avoids the wrong choice: "Partner rates to have a good high-card hand.  If North is 5=4=4=0, bidding is almost certainly better; however, this is a much lower probability than either 5=3=4=1 or 5=4=3=1, and we would have little chance of making three of a red suit if we guessed the wrong suit."  While Boye Brogeland approaches the problem with optimism:  "At matchpoints, when I lack a good action, I like to go for the one with the biggest upside.  Passing is additionally attractive, since I don't know how well we would fare at the three-level (nor which suit to bid)."  Perhaps the most realistic Panelist is Arthur Robinson, "Expecting minus 670."


This ends the first installment of MSC discussion.  The new month's contest is underway, and the number of IAC participants has been dropping.  If we are doing something wrong, please help us out and let us know.  The next installment will be coming as time allows.

62
IAC & Master Solvers Club / Re: 2023 MARCH MSC
« on: January 13, 2023, 11:46:15 PM »
For  problem F,  I meant "what response to the hoped-for "blackwood"  shows A+A+A+void.. in case that wasn't clear.  And YES  a little  rough & tumble in the conversation -- just like at the after-party at the pizza joint at 11PM --  is definitely welcome  here in the forum  ;D

Then the response for this hand would be 6C, showing an odd-numbered step with a void.  It also shows the first ace possessed if below the agreed upon suit.   6H, showing a void above the agreed upon suit - I answered as I misremembered not as the explanation is now - ty Todd for the correct answer.  See:  https://www.pattayabridge.com/conventions/RespRKCBvoid_main.htm#:~:text=Responding%20to%20Roman%20Keycard%20Blackwood%20with%20a%20void.,is%20count%20the%20void%20as%20an%20extra%20ace.

63
IAC & Master Solvers Club / Re: 2023 MARCH MSC
« on: January 12, 2023, 01:03:03 PM »

B:>>   Right now the hint has me aboard.  Our two  non-openers have not "blossomed".  I will sign off, and the opp's are welcome to their 3H competition.  Somebody talk me out of THIS one.
                          ---2 Spades---


Don't look to me to talk you out of this choice - I may have had different reasons, but I agreed with the choice.


D:>>  The heart AQ, along with the correct point-count cannot be denied.  If I reopened with a double and heard a spade response, i swear  I would convert to notrump even then.
                          ---1 Notrump---


My luck at the table is such that no matter which way I go, it will be wrong.  With NT, they will either find the entry to East's hand that brings my AQ to a single stop, or West has so many entries it doesn't matter if they lead into the AQ.  By the end of the month, I may be bidding 1 NT like you, or you may be doubling like me.


F:>>  I didn't think of Jim's dog-walking idea so was content  with the cue-bid for an answer.  It would be ideal if partner was moved to Blackwood after that--very nice.  What bid shows 3 of five + a void, by the way.
                 ---Four Spades---


I look forward to you developing the BluBayou control-showing bid, and then getting The Bridge World to add the bid to MSC 2037.


H:>>   Deschapelles Coup  from trick one!   for a 30 score I suppose :-[
                 --- Diamond Queen ---

Did someone fail to tell you that dummy's entry is in spades?  Well, it might be.  But then it could be in diamonds.  The question is, do you want to put all your eggs in one basket?  The  !D Q may get you the 30 or 100, but then, so could the  !D A.

I hope you, Jock, and everyone else takes this in the spirit that was intended - one part serious, one part tongue-in-cheek.   :P

64
IAC & Master Solvers Club / Re: 2023 MARCH MSC
« on: January 09, 2023, 04:01:02 PM »
My initial guesses:

Problem A:  3 !D I think I am in the wrong seat to convert the double, so I will bid.  Partner should know that if I had clubs, I would bid them, and if I were rich, I would have made an immediate responsive double, so this is asking for a 3-level best major.  (I would probably have made a responsive double on this hand, but you live with the traveled path, not the one wished for.)

Problem B:  2 !S  My preference would have been to bid diamonds, anticipating the heart bid, then I could show spades.  Since I did not do that, I feel I am stuck with taking the hint, rebidding my spades to show the weakest action.

Problem C:  3 !H  Partner should have five, so I may as well raise and let him know of the fit.  Tempting as it may be, I don't want to reverse into clubs for a delayed support (implying diamond shortness).

Problem D:  Dbl  I am torn between 1NT and double.  1 NT is right on points and shows the stopper, but the stopper is badly placed if West can find an entry to East early.  The hand has the right shape for the double, but if partner chooses diamonds, the support is very anemic.  I would be pleasantly surprised to hear a pass from partner if I double, but with me holding the AQ, I don't expect that to happen even with a stack.

Problem E:  4 !S  I hate opening 2 !C with a two-suiter, but having done so, I will rebid my spades and hope partner can figure out what to do next.

Problem F:  6 !H  This one will require additional thought.  Partner opened and supported by six-card suit at the four-level.  I have first-round control of all suits, and the opponents are showing a lot of length in my void.  I am very tempted to trot out 5 NT (grand-slam force - bid 7 with 2 of the top three trump).  Walking the dog may allow me to buy the grand, where the GSF may lead to the 7 !S sacrifice.

Problem G:  3 !S  I hate splintering into a singleton ace, but a slam is very possible, so I need cooperation.  A diamond cue-bid would be wonderful.

Problem H:  !D A  I suspect I need to produce a Deschapelles coup, so I will look at dummy to decide which suit I need to lead to attack dummy's entry.

65
IAC & Master Solvers Club / Re: 2023 February MSC
« on: January 03, 2023, 12:12:41 AM »
Vered tied for fourth on the Honor Roll - WTG Vered!!!

66
IAC & Master Solvers Club / Re: 2023 February MSC
« on: January 02, 2023, 07:54:04 PM »
On "A," I am a little surprised that no one went with 5 !C to show a massive red two-suiter, though I too went low with 4 !H. Partly because my partner has passed.

I agree that my 4 !H was going low, partly because of partner's initial pass.  I also know I did not want to commit to the five-level when it might go down, but I also know that in the back of my mind I knew I could always bid 5 !D over competition in either black suit.

67
IAC & Master Solvers Club / Re: 2023 February MSC
« on: January 02, 2023, 01:01:21 AM »
LOL, Todd ;D   re:  problem Bee.  POOR values, yes, but SCATTERED values  is an overstatement?
    Ohh,  I completely forgot about that club queen  sorry

Evenly distributed?  ;)

I don't think Jock is giving full weight to those three 10's.  They are typically undervalued anyway.  Being a fan of KnR, I know that Todd would never fail to give them credit.

68
IAC & Master Solvers Club / Re: 2023 January MSC
« on: December 25, 2022, 06:52:01 PM »
January MSC SUMMARY (Part 3)– David Berkowitz, Director


Problem F  4 NT  (VeredK, CCR3, VeeRee, Masse24, Peuco)

Matchpoints  Neither side vulnerable
You, South, hold:

♠ K 6 5    A J 9    K Q 10   ♣ A J 4 2

SOUTH   WEST   NORTH   EAST
  1 ♣       2 ♠       3         Pass
   ?*         
*By agreement, 4 NT = invitational.

What call do you make?

You open 1 !C with a tweener NT.  The problem with tweeners is that because you open at the one-level, it fails to get any respect, so LHO preempts in spades and partner comes in freely at the three-level in hearts.  MSC is kind enough to provide a little context to what 4 NT means, that it is invitational, so that clarifies that it is not RKC.  We also know that we have an eight-card fit, but if we choose that strain, we are likely to be wrong-siding the contract.  By bidding NT from our side, the contract is right-sided, but do we have enough tricks for game, much less slam.

3 ♠   70   BWP 26%   BWS 42% IAC 50%
Three spades was the clear solver favorite, pulling in half of IAC and nearly that from the BW solvers.  JCreech points out:  "I have extras and a fit.  The least I can do is give partner a boost.  The most is to show strength and suggest the fit, while also keeping the bidding as low as I am able."  While Hoki describes the plan:  "then 4 !H, showing more strength than a direct 4 !H."  Eric Stoltz echos, "I plan to bid four hearts next to show support and extra values in hearts."  As does Jeff Rubens: "Treating the hand as a strong heart raise.  The king of spades may not be wasted, and there are almost enough extra values without it."  Zia: "I must announce a strong hand if possible.  This is a squeeze bid, but maybe something good will happen to overcome my current ignorance of the best approach."  Kerri and Steve Sanborn thinks the bid "Ugly, but a must.  There are too many tickets for a simple raise and not enough spade 'chunk' for four notrump."  Alan Sontag says "I am not a fan of four notrump."  While Eric Kokish discusses why:  "Might not have time to make four notrump; starting slowly provides a chance to learn more about North's hand.  If he bids three notrump, for example, the rest probably would be easy.  It's not always positional concerns that determine the timing of a notrump bid."  My problem with either the cue-bid or NT bids is that they feel like you are locking in a strain before you are certain, at least with the cue-bid, as Eric points out, with the appropriate sort of help from partner, there is still the flexibility to reach the NT strain.

3 NT   40   BWP 11%   BWS 10% IAC No solvers
Essentially giving up on slam, but right-siding the !S K are a small group of Hammondites.  John Carruthers thinks "With the ace of spades behind the king on most days, this hand is worth no more than a strong notrump."  However, Robert Wolff credits partner with the overreach:  "Yes, a huge underbid, but the odds are that partner is overbidding at least slightly, and it is matchpoints, where frequency is king."

4    30   BWP One Panelist   BWS 12% IAC No solvers
There is also a small group bidding the heart game directly.  Optimistically, Carl Hudecek says "Partner can ask for key cards or cue-bid if so inclined.  I don't think much of the king of spades."  If you are headed for hearts, it might be better to underbid to devalue the !S K

4 NT   100   BWP 56%   BWS 32% IAC  50%
The hint did quite well, pulling more than half of the Panel, and strong contingencies from both solver groups.  Phillip Alder: "Okay, you led the witness."  Eric Rodwell: "Talked me into it.  I see no good alternative anyway.  I hope there will later be a way to back into hearts, but that probably is wishful thinking."  Bart Bramley: "Nice agreement.  If not now, why use it."  Bruce Rogoff: "If not now, when?  This hand resembles the prototype: 18-19 HCP, balanced shape, spade tenace, heart filler to help run the suit.  Maybe I'm supposed to shoot out six notrump (will partner know to raise with: ♠ xx    KQxxxx    Axx   ♣ Kx?), but perhaps we'll score well just for playing in notrump.  I suppose some will try three spades, but I don't see what that will accomplish other than preventing us from reaching the likely-best strain." , and it might be necessary to play from my side."  At last, someone is mentioning that NT may be necessary to protect the king.  The IAC comments are more clear on that point.  Masse24 thinks the bid "Conveys a lot of information. Avoids the lead through the !S K and possible ruff. I look forward to the panel's opinion. Fun problem."  Peuco agrees: "I make the invitation and protect the S K , plus NT may yield more than H"  Gary Cohler: "If this weren't quantitative, I'd bid three spades.  Four notrump gives a perfect description except for the third heart, and it might be necessary to play from my side."  Kit Woolsey feels it is "The value bid.  If there is no slam, notrump might or might not be better than hearts.  If there is a slam, there will be a chance to suggest hearts later."  Larry Cohen: "Not an ace-ask, as I did not bid three spades first to set trumps, but I am worried that the hand may not be worth it with the depressing spades."  Chip Martel: "Must show some strength, this may get us to the best matchpoint game when there is no slam."  However, there was a bit of debate regarding the difficulty of this problem.  Steve Garner thinks it "Another no-brainer."  While Jeff Alexander says it is the "Hardest problem of the set.  Four notrump shows the power and stopper, but I am not confident about how poor partner will cope."


Problem G  3 !C  (CCR3, VeeRee, Peuco, VeredK, Masse24, JCreech, BabsG, YleeXotee, BluBayou, Hoki)

Matchpoints  North-South vulnerable
You, South, hold:

♠ A 5 4    K 2    10 4 3   ♣ K Q J 9 2 

SOUTH   WEST   NORTH   EAST
  ——       1        1         2
   ?         
What call do you make?

The opponents have opened and raised diamonds, while partner has interjected a heart overcall.  You have an opening hand with a very nice suit, but to show it, you have to bid at the three-level.  Unless someone is overbidding, and that is quite possible, it sounds like the HCPs are nearly evenly split.  Your hand is too good to remain silent, but do you really want to commit to a nine-trick contract?

Double   90   BWP 33%   BWS 20%  IAC No solvers
Trying to mark time by creating a quasi-force with a responsive double (after all, take-out doubles are meant to be taken out), several Panelists ignore the technical requirements of a responsive double and gamble that partner will not pass.  Adam Grossack says "I'll risk the spade holding.  If partner jumps in spades, he will rate to hold very good cards, and I'll have a chance to survive.  It's important to show some flexibility of strain, since I would hate to miss a good game in clubs or hearts.  Three clubs would be nonforcing."  According to Zia, it "Feels as if hearts may play well; three clubs would sound like this hand with another club and no spade ace.  I will raise two hearts to game."  Steve Garner thinks "It is imperative to show values with a couple o hearts.  What I will do on the next round of bidding is less obvious."  For Chip Martel the call is "Clear for now (particularly if interpreted as announcing values without primary support and not promising any specific shape)."  Jeff Rubens is "Planning to show a strong raise with only two hearts.  The ace in a side suit and partner's probable diamond shortness - the vulnerable overcall and my honor strength suggest that East-West are bidding on shape - push me toward the high road."  Billy Eisenberg "Nothing fits."

3 ♣   100   BWP 41%   BWS 66%  IAC 100%
Although 3 !C may not forcing, it is highly descriptive of the hand; a plurality of the Panel and most of the solvers chose this bid.  As Danny Kleinman put it "No need for fancy footwork.  The Great Shuffler gaave me the nine of clubs or a reason - to allay any fears that I might have had if it had been a lower spot cart.  In case the jewelers persist with three diamonds, I have hidden the three-heart bidding card in my shirt pocket, ready to be laid on the table next if needed."  Bruce Rogoff notes that "South's is likely the best hand at the table, with perhaps the best suit, so why not show it?  We're practically a lock to have an eight-plus-card fit somewhere., and three clubs will find it.  We're allowed to play in five clubs at matchpoints, right?"  JCreech: "I am willing to be in hearts with Kx, but would love to be in 3 NT if partner has a diamond stop and the club ace."  Jeff Alexander "I hate cue-bidding in this situation, so I bid my suit and hope to be able to figure out what to do next.  (If partner passes, we will be okay.)"  Bart Bramley expresses a concern:  "Obvious.  The real problem will come if the opponents bid three diamonds."  That Gary Cohler dismisses:  "Not perfect, but there is too much strength not to act, and it looks as if a club lead would be good.  I will double three diamonds to show extra values and hope that partner rebids a six-card suit."  Larry Cohen says "I like all 13 of my HCP.  It is true that partner might be stuck for a bid, but that's his problem."  There is some uncertainty of whether the bid is forcing or not.  BluBayou asks "What's troubling about three clubs??  WE MAY PLAY IT THERE, FOR A 18%"  Hoki thinks "Perfect for 'non-forcing constructive'."  On the other hand, Robert Wolff says "If I thought partner would not treat it as forcing, I'd prefer three diamonds with the intention of making three hearts to game."  While Kerri and Steve Sanborn say "Let's force, and over the expected three of a red suit, raise hearts.  A double would miss the mark for spade length, and three diamonds wold over emphasize the heart length."  Nonetheless, Eric Stoltz feels the bid "Maybe not forcing, but what else is possible?  Bidding at the three-level, vulnerable, should show a reason to act; and if partner wants to bid more hearts, I am all for it."  Similarly, Masse24 thinks the hand "Enough to probe for game. This shows my values and where I live."  John Carruthers response makes sense to me:  "Bidding my suit.  I'd love to see a raise; wouldn't you."

3    60   BWP 22%   BWS 7%  IAC No solvers
Although most won't admit it, Sami Kehela identifies his call accurately:  "The Twenty-First-Century panacea: If you don't know what to do, cue-bid."  Eric Rodwell decides "I must do something strong with this many values.  Three clubs is a possibility, but the hand has too much potential for hearts for that.  I'll gamble that hearts is a playable strain and let pard decide."  Kit Woolsey: "This hand has invitational strength, and we may belong in hearts even if partner has only a five-card suit.  A double would show more spades, and even if three clubs were forcing (I think it isn't), it wouldn't be so helpful."  Eric Kokish: "Double would be too dangerous without four-plus spades, and three clubs would be nonforcing and a club short.  These cards are fine for hearts, even with only two."  Phillip Alder says "Ugh.  But double could lead to a spade contract with the long-trump hand being tapped to death."





Problem H  !S 3/4  (Peuco, BluBayou)

Matchpoints  Neither side vulnerable
You, South, hold:

♠ J 4 3    10 6    K Q 10 2   ♣ K 10 5 3

SOUTH   WEST   NORTH   EAST
  ——      ——      ——       1 ♣
  Pass      1        Pass       1 NT*
  Pass      3 NT      (All Pass)
*May be 4=4=2=3, 4=3=3=3, or 3=4=3=3.

What is your opening lead?

[BWS: queen-lead requests jack.]

The opening lead on this hand rates to be a real crap shoot.   As the moderator, David Berkowitz, points out "Searching for a long suit with a nonvulnerable partner that he could not mention at the one-level is nuts."  Add to that, both suits mentioned by the oppenents are also your best suits.  So do you attack one your best suits or try to hit a partner who had opportunities to help but failed to provide that assistance.  John Carruthers describes it as "The most difficult and the most-unappetizing lead problem I've ever seen.  West will have real diamonds and no major, so I'm reluctant to lead a diamond.  Partner did not squeak one of a major, so I don't want to pick up an honor in his hand.  My second choice, the spade jack, could blow the whole suit.  The club lead needs North to have the ace, queen, jack or nine to have a chance."

K   50   BWP 11%   BWS 10%  IAC No solvers
Diamonds is the strongest suit, but West should have real diamonds; this is a strength vs. strength situation.  Adam Grossack is gambling that the one-diamond response was a temporizing action:  "Matchpoints.  I'm not sure how fast or slow tricks will be, so I choose a mildly-passive, possible-trick-building lead.  People respond one diamond to one club on many hand-types."  Kit Woolsey is more straightforward:  "No suit is promising, so I'll lead strongest.  No doubt I'll find the ace on my right and the jack of left, but if I led a low diamond those cards would magically trade places."

♠ 3/4   100   BWP 37%   BWS 24%  IAC 20%
Bruce Rogoff argues for the Panel plurality, that "Any lead could blow up that suit.  A minor has the additional risk of hitting th opponent' eight-card fit and losing timing to set up a long card.  To set up some tricks, a spade needs less from partner than a heart."  Carl Hudecek adds "The most-passive lead. ... I prefer passive, because the opponents made no attempt to find a major-suit fit."  Eric Kokish feels "A heart lead might be safe if North has five, but a spade combines passive and aggressive with the possibility of finding the best switch later."  Eric Stoltz: "Partner could not bid at the one-level, and I do not want to start one of the opponents' suits, so I lead my better major."  BluBayou is "Tempted to hit partner with the heart ten,  but then  he has enough to squeek "1 !H "  over opp's  1D response, no prolly not.  so  I will hope spades are 4-3-3-3  with him having the thirteener.  Since all four suits look like opening leader is endplayed,  'I hate lead problems'!"  Eric Rodwell doesn't "... want to commit to a particular minor.  The heart ten is more likely to cause us damage than a spade (especially when partner not seeing the nine, places me with heart length)."  Bart Bramley: "Better major.  No reason to be a genius.  Just because East-West might have a major doesn't mean they do have a major."  Robert Wolff "I'd rather that my jack of spades were the ten, but I forget the minor suits and deem the heart ten more likely than a spade to lose a trick." Chip Martel "Ugly, but fairly safe and might be productive.  All four suits are reasonable choices."  JCreech initially said"With all of my strength in the opponent's suits, I like trying to hit partner.  Since he was not gracious enough to tell me which major is his, I have to guess.  I have two reasons to try spades first:  I have the jack and I have three.  The jack may help set up the suit more than the !H 10, and since I rate to get in more frequently than partner, it provides more 'safe' exit cards from my hand than hearts."  Peuco: "3 S is the nemesis of NT the saying goes here"

♣ 3   80   BWP 30%   BWS 16%  IAC One solver
Then there were adherants for the second-best suit.  Gary Cohler argues "Why guess a short major when partner didn't bid?  With diamonds behind me, that suit doesn't look promising.  A club could blow a trick, but leading a major could pick up an entire suit."  Kerri and Steve Sanborn say "Partner didn't bid, so we suspect lack of a lead to direct.  We don't love a club, but the major-suit leads are fraught with danger too."  Hoki writes "Nothing appeals. Who does like lead problems?"  While Phillip Alder seems to shrug:  "Any choice could cost, any suit would work here."

10   60   BWP 19%   BWS 44%  IAC 70%
Ron Gerard speaks well for the solver's choice:  "There are a ton of distributions where East holds four-plus clubs, in which case partner has five-plus hearts, so why should I blow out a whole suit?  Even four hearts with North might be sufficient.  Going passive is indicated, whether partner has a two-count or an ace more.  Look at the minor-suit spot cards before launching one of those missiles."  Others have much less well-thought-out reasons.  For JCreech it was a search for company:  "A different type of chicken.  I still want to hit partner, but I have been hurt these past two months with lone-wolf actions that I still like, just not the points that accompany those positions.  I will go with the unbid suit that has company."  Jason Feldman felt "Everything else seems worse."  Jeff Alexander is "Hoping not to do too much damage.  A club at imps."  Masse24 wants to go "Passive. My gut reaction lead without much thought. If I think hard I may go in another direction."  Larry Cohen fears "A low-spade lead might induce partner's placing me with four-plus spades and going wrong later on."  But I like Jeff Ruben's answer best "But delaying the lead as long as possible to increase the chance that the game will be rained out before I play."



This concludes Part 3.  I hope you have taken something useful from these comments.  Meanwhile, please take part in February contest that is coming close to conclusion.  As always, we welcome simple participation, but value any reasoning you would like to add to your answers.  Good luck to all.

69
IAC & Master Solvers Club / Re: 2023 January MSC
« on: December 23, 2022, 04:06:32 PM »
January MSC SUMMARY (Part 2)– David Berkowitz, Director


Problem D  5 !C  (Hoki, YleeXotee, Peuco)

Imps  North-South vulnerable
You, South, hold:

♠ 7 6    4 2    A K 7 6 3   ♣ A Q J 2

SOUTH   WEST   NORTH   EAST
  1         1 ♠      Double     3 ♠
  Pass      Pass    Double    Pass
   ?         
What call do you make?

This is a very basic problem.  You have opened, LHO overcalls, partner makes a negative double, and RHO jump raises preemptively.  This gets passed back to partner, who doubles again.  So what do you do? 

First, is the double penalty?  Probably not.  With an overcall and a jump raise, it is almost a certainty that partner has three or less, and less is more likely than three.  It should guarantee more values than promised with the initial negative double, but little additional information.

Second, is four clubs forcing?  The moderator, David Berkowitz weighs in:  "BWS makes no explicit statement on this issue, but I know in my partnerships, if partner makes a three-level negative double ... and I bid four of a minor, it is forcing.  Threading a needle at the four-level is just too tough a proposition.  Thus, when partner later produces a strength-showing double, we would be in a game-force.  No need to go jumping around on a four-bagger ..."

Third, does the negative doubler have four or more clubs?  The negative double is primarily speaking of hearts.  It was possible that partner had more than four hearts based on the initial double.  Now there is an inference that the hearts are limited to exactly four.  With game forcing values shown by the double, and the failure to bid two hearts immediately, increases the chances that he does have four clubs with you.

And fourth, if you were to bid 4 NT, what sort of shape expectations would come along with the bid?  Does it require  a two-card difference in length (e.g., 6=4), or is one-card sufficient (e.g., 5=4)?

Pass   60   BWP 22%   BWS 17%  IAC One solver
The first double is clearly negative and therefore for takeout.  But what of the second double?  I am inclined to believe that is shows values rather than values plus both hearts and clubs.  BluBayou argues that "The LAW-number MIGHT be 18  ( 5-4 heart fit versus 5-3 plus 4-4  in our minors),  but I'll be damned if I am going to bet that their 3 !S    is making which suggests a down-one sacrifice by our 23-plus  points.  ... with partner's 11-plus points, They will win no more than 5+2  trump tricks.  The double stands."  Chip Martel reminds us that "Given what nowadays passes for a favorable-vulnerability jump-raise, there is no reason to expect any opposing shape.  On a good day, we will score 800 when we have game or 500 when we do not."  JCreech initially tried for the set: "Partner should have a decent read of my hand (HCPs and clubs), so I will pass the double and hope for a plus."  Jeff Alexander says:  "At least partner will get off to a good lead.  This could be wrong if North has only one spade."  Larry Cohen:  "Usually, I'd try to win it on some other deal rather than gamble for a penalty; but, with trump leads, it is hard to picture the declarer taking many tricks."  Adam Grossack writes "... it is the percentage action.  Not five clubs with two low spades, yet four clubs wouldn't do the strength justice.  We won't need much luck to obtain a sizable penalty; if partner has ace-queen-low-low of hearts, we could easily take two hearts and a ruff."

4 ♣   70   BWP 22%   BWS 59%  IAC 60%
The majority of solvers are unwilling to risk handing the opponents a game bonus, nor do they feel certain of making game (the moderator's opinion, about the bid being forcing, notwithstanding).  Of course, they also are violating the Coyote's law of playing in four of a minor.  Perhaps Ron Gerard said it best:  "Pass for my money but not for that of my teammates.  I'm not worried about beating three spades, but partner might be able to bid game with, for example:  ♠ xx    AKxx    Qxx   ♣ K10xx, since I rate not to have a balanced hand."  Similarly, JCreech says "Its IMPs and I cannot stand bringing back a result where we doubled them into a game.  Call me chicken.  My heart is still with the pass."  Masse24: "With Pass the other option."  Billy Eisenberg is "Allowing partner the decision."  Carl Hudecek thinks "The shape dissuades me from bidding more.  If the opponents have 10 spades and a stiff diamond, which is possible, we won't get rich defending against three spades doubled."  Kit Woolsey trusts that "Partner would bid three notrump with a spade stopper.  He has either club or diamond support, and four or five of a minor should be fine.  Passing would be too big a position, since we have no idea what kind of distribution we be running into."  Kerri and Steve Sanborn thinks "The hand didn't grow.  We would like it much better with a major-suit singleton."

4 NT   50   BWP 11%   BWS 2%  IAC No solvers
Four notrump is an interesting choice.  As the moderator puts it "... not strong enough to bid last round but too promising to stop short of game now."  Steve Gardner recognizes that "We may end a level too high, but I have extra high cards and chunky suits.  Certainly game must be worth a shot."  Phillip Alder:  "Showing both minors with longer diamonds.  I hop that we will lose only the first two tricks in spades."   If the opponents have 10 spades, then you could afford losing one red-suit finesse.

5 ♣   100   BWP 44%   BWS 21%  IAC 30%
The Panel plurality, along with solid solver contingencies, came away with the top score.  If the Panel felt that 4 !C were forcing, as the moderator feels, the voting would have been different.  For example, Eric Rodwell says "This is considerably more than a minimum, so the choices are pass (which could be right if pard has two spades) and drive to game.  The vulnerability and concentration of strength suggest the latter.  I could have a 2=3=4=4 12 count to pull to four clubs."  John Carruthers:  "Initially, I thought, 'Four Clubs.  What's the problem?'  Then I looked at those lovely honors."  Eric Stoltz thinks "This is a pretty good hand and we need to push a bit when vulnerable at imps.  Heart ace, and king-fourth of clubs in partner's hand will provide a reasonable play for game, and the second double shows good values."  Bruce Rogoff points out that "Partner doesn't have five hearts (with enough strength to double now, he'd have bid the suit earlier), so an eight-card fit is guaranteed, with a nine-card fit odds-on.  Eric Kokish says "Had there been a good positive action over three spades, I would have chosen it; now, there is too much to settle for four clubs. If considering six, North will remember my earlier pass.  Sure, we may well be off three first tricks."  Hoki: "It is IMPs, so feel we gotta be in game."  Peuco: "I think it has decent chance"  Danny Kleinman: "Partner's second double changes the strength promised but not the general meaning of the call.  He hasn't suddenly grown spade tricks.  As I'd bid four clubs if the king of diamonds were a knave or other imposter, when that card has true royal blood, I'll bid a red-blooded five."




Problem E  Pass  (YleeXotee, Masse24)

Matchpoints  Neither side vulnerable
You, South, hold:

♠ A 10 4 2    6    K J 10 9 8 6 3   ♣ 5

SOUTH   WEST   NORTH   EAST
   ?         
What call do you make?

At one time, it was doctrine that you do not preempt with a four-card side-suit major.  Similarly, there have a bunch of rules about opening at the one-level (typically, mine includes 2 1/2 quick tricks to open a hand with less than 12 HCPs).  So I think this problem was set up to be a referendum on current thinking given the free-for-all that is online.

Pass   100   BWP 44%   BWS 45% IAC 20%
Ron Gerard: "I suppose I need to explain this, since one diamond is all the rage.  Do not open, do not preempt.  Sometimes, you learn from listening.  The auction is not always up to four hearts at your next turn (and wo shat if it is?).  Even notrump sequences won't keep me out, and delayed diamond bids show a major in any throwback approach."  Certainly opening hands such as this at the one-level is seen online quite a bit, but the BW Panel and solvers both made Pass their plurality choice.  One theme was to listen as Ron mentions and Sami Kehela continues:  "I might be better placed to make an informed judgment if I were to listen for a round, since the number of diamonds we should contract for depends on partner's spade holding."  Another theme was that there was no need to force action holding spades, but that might not have been true if the major had been hearts.  Bart Bramley, for example, says "With the majors reversed, I'd contemplate a preempt, but not with side spades.  There is enough playing strength for one diamond, but the hand is too light overcall.  Maybe I will be able to judge better next round."  And Eric Rodwell: "Not quite strong enough to open one diamond.  I don't like three diamonds or four diamonds that much either, but neither would be terrible.  With four strong spades I'll wait.  With four hearts instead, four diamonds would have more appeal."  Masse24: "Changed my mind here as well. With four spades, I do not like the preempt. Pass is what I would do at the table. Previously, my 1 !D was my attempt to guess the panel's choice--always my goal. But I think they will be wildly split among the three (or four?) choices. Hopefully the Pass is the plurality choice." Other reasons were floated.  Eric Stoltz: "I don't like preempting partner and will have another chance to bid later.  Kit Woolsey: "Not strong enough to open one diamond, and I can't afford to ignore the boss suit.  I may be able to handle things later."  John Carruthers: "If you held a gun to my head and said, 'You must make a bid,' I'd open one diamond.  No other diamond bid is close to being accurate."  And Zia wants to try a bid acceptable in Europe, but not in the ACBL:  "Could try two clubs and pass two diamonds as a hoary joke.  I leave it to Kit to find a perversion level."

1    70   BWP 26%   BWS 24% IAC 80%
The IAC largely went with the "rage" of opening this hand at the one-level; they were joined by a fourth of the BW crowd.  Adam Grossack thinks "It is a huge advantage to be the dealer, and I want to open at matchpoints both white.  I get mad at my partner for opening with 8 HCP, but I don't see any better options.  We would lose too much by passing, and there is no higher number of diamonds that is comfortable."  And it is hard to argue with Carl Hudecek's logic: "Beyond criticism to open a one-bid here with six sure winners."  Several opened low to ensure that the spades would not be lost.  Chip Martel considers it the "Best way to get my suit in and to keep spades in the game."  Eric Kokish: "It's easy to justify pass or some large number of diamonds with the bonus of the form of scoring to make those choices more attractive, but starting with one diamond keeps spades and notrump in the picture and will be safe enough in most scenarios."  Steve Garner insists that "Preempting is out of the question and I want to get my suit in at a low level.  The good news with this plan is that I'll have some easy rebids."  From the comments made by the IAC, their bids were not based on how they would act at the table, but, rather, gaming the system.  BluBayou, for example writes, "I have said in this forum for years "There IS NO OPENING 1-BID of 8 HCP", and those fools keep giving me 60's or lower.   This may be my only vote to get revenge on them this month:  believing in "pass", but  ---One Diamond---"  Similarly, JCreech says "I don't like it, but I think the Panel will open at the one level with this 4-7."

3    60   BWP 22%   BWS 26% IAC No solvers
None of the IAC solvers preempted on this hand, but roughly a fourth of the BW Panel and solvers did.  Larry Cohen says  "Yes, I see the good four-card major."  Bruce Rogoff does more explaining:  "We'd all open three diamonds if the black deuce were a club, so with all the benefits that preempting offers, will we let the fourth spade deter us?  The Ming-Dynasty axiom of avoiding preempts with a side four-card major is wrong, period.  The hand has the playing strength to open four diamonds, but I'd like to have a sensible dialogue when it is our deal, in particular, we may be able to introduce spade over three hearts."  Phillip Alder adds:  "When I have made a disciplined pass with this hand-type, it has proven disastrous almost every time.  Some top Australians believe that one should always open with a game-bid when holding below one-bid values and eau-de-cologne distribution.  That seems a tad much here."  I had been unaware of the reference, but the BW editor explained:  "The first product named Eau de Cologne is sometimes referred to as 4711, after the house number where the original manufacturer was located more thant 200 years ago."  A couple of parting thoughts:  Jeff Alexander thinks "If one deliberates between passing and bidding, bidding is indicated.  Three diamonds comes closer to describing the hand than one diamond."  And Robert Wolff believes that "When discipline wars with winning, I choose the latter - or I attempt to."

4    50   BWP 7%   BWS 2% IAC No solvers
Then there were those who kicked the auction up one more notch.  Kerri and Steve Sanborn say it "Gets the playing strength out there.  Sure, we could miss a spade game, but preempting is always a thorn in the opponents' sides too."  While Billy Eisenberg was a bit understated: "A clear preempt."




Here ends Part 2.  I will be back with Part 3 when time allows.  Christmas is almost upon us, which means that the due date for the February problems will be on its heels.  I noticed the Jock still hasn't made a tentative commitment for the lead problem yet, which puts him well behind his normal standard.  Please participate in next month's problems, and if you have a moment, please also help us understand why you made the choice you did.  Remember, there are no wrong answers.  Happy holidays.

70
IAC & Master Solvers Club / Re: 2023 January MSC
« on: December 20, 2022, 09:20:03 PM »
January MSC SUMMARY (Part 1)– David Berkowitz, Director


Problem A  2 NT  (BluBayou)

Imps  Both sides vulnerable
You, South, hold:

♠ A 10    A Q J 10 9    A 10 6 2   ♣ Q 3

SOUTH   WEST   NORTH   EAST
  1        2 ♠       Pass       Pass
   ?         
What call do you make?

MSC problems are supposed to have at least three reasonably likely answers, but if you look to the Panel, only two answers pop up.  Are there really others available?  Yes, but, but as is typical, each has its own set of challenges.  One possibility, that did not even make the list is 3 !H; the suit is high quality and you have the extra strength, but there is a gap in the suit and only five in length for a three-level bid all by your lonesome.  I think 3 !D had a similar fate; although it gives partner a choice, you are still at the three-level with no certainty of fit.  These shakey three-level actions gives rise to the thought that perhaps pass might be a better way to go; the arguments against largely revolve around 17 HCPs is a bit much to go quietly.  Similar to pass, double allows you to take an action without committing to the three-level, but unless partner has an unlikely trump stack (after all, lefty did preempt vulnerable), you are virtually committed to partner bidding three of something.  That leaves 2 NT; you do have a sure stopper along with the 10 as a partial, but your suit has a gap near the top, and unless partner has something like Hxx, you may find lefty back in with his suit ready to run.  What arguments were found to be convincing?

3    0   Bridge World  Panel (BWP) No Panelists   Bridge World solvers (BWS) 2%  Intermediate-Advanced Club (IAC) No solvers
Only a small percentage of BW solvers were willing to go it alone with their nearly solid 5-bagger.   However, Kit Woolsey is willing to bid the suit with the wrong response to a double: "Maybe partner will pass.  If not, I can handle things okay, passing three of a red suit or bidding three hearts over three clubs."

3    30   BWP No Panelists   BWS 14%  IAP One solver
This was actually my second choice behind double.  Hoki had similar thoughts "but it's close to double which I'd do ony if I was prepared to pass 3!C from partner in the hope that partner has five clubs."  Oliver bid to avoid feeling that he had to pass partner's 3 !C response to the double, but wouldn't the pull of clubs to diamonds be an equal-length conversion?

Pass   40   BWP One Panelist   BWS 3%  IAC No solvers
Bart Bramley was the lone wolf among the Panel:  "Unpopular, but most of my constructions had better prospects on defense than on offense.  Game is unlikely, especially in hearts, when partner couldn't act.  Getting involved could turn a plus into a minus."  The moderator, David Berkowitz, admitted this "... could be right, we should know when the dummy hits."

Double   80   BWP 41%   BWS 63%  IAC 80%
The clear solver choice was to double, and even the Panel's vote would often be enough for the pluraity choice.  JCreech thinks "The reopening double stands out; shortness in spades, length in at least two suits, enough strength to convert clubs to diamonds under any set of agreements."  Robert Wolff has similar plans:  "And I suppose I will correct three clubs to three diamonds, but first I'll wait till I need to, likely haveing been doubled."  Masse24 says "Double seems clear. Too much to pass vul at IMPs. A close second is 2NT. East's failure to further the preempt increases the possibility that partner has three or more spades."  Phillip Alder:  "Maybe delaying the evil moment, but perhaps doing okay."  However, the Panel seems to have spotted a lurker; what does it mean if partner bids 2 NT?  Steve Gardner considers double to be "... the easy part.  I will continue with three diamonds after a three-club continuation or raise two notrump to three."  Ron Gerard says "Wrong hand (mostly wrong spades) for two notrump.  Partner's two-notrump bid will be scrambling, since I could have an ace less, so I would pass if instead he bid three clubs.  And what rule prevents North from holding:  ♠ xxxx    x    Kxxxxx   ♣ Kx?"  So would partner's 2 NT response be natural (and wrong-siding the contract), scrambling, or even a lebensohl extension?  According to BWS, the bid should be natural, but the vulnerability and South's hold speak otherwise.  Nonetheless, this ambiguity may drive the notrumpers.  For those wearing rose-colored glasses,  Carl Hudecek is representative:  "If partner leaves it in, we should collect a telephone number.  If he pulls to three clubs or bids a lebensohlish two notrump, I will bid three diamonds; then if pard has say: ♠ xxx    x    xx   ♣ K9xxxxx, he can bid four clubs, and our merciful opponents may not double." 

2 NT   100   BWP 56%   BWS 17%  IAC One solver
BluBayou was our lone IAC solver choosing 2 NT: "Originally I saw the reopening double protecting partner's trap pass  as our duty.   But he doesn't HAVE a penalty leave-in;  he has  the Jxx in spades  plus some lifesaving trash in clubs.  So, 2NT play by south is going to slither home,  but get murdered when the A-10  is in the dummy.  Farewell,  reopening double, I'm bailing for.........Two Notrump"  If our side is going to play notrump, then I agree that South is the appropriate bidder.  John Carruthers thinks "If I doubled, what would I then do over two notrump or three clubs?  Or even three of a red suit?  Notrump ought to be play from my hand opposite nine-fourth, jack-third or queen-low.  Besides, this bid is perfectly descriptive."  Kerri and Steve Sanborn agree:  "It can only be right to play this from the South side, and double would create more problems than it would solve."  Eric Stoltz considers it to be the "Best description of the hand, which has a source of tricks.  It will not take much to produce a second spade stopper (even three low in the North hand might be enough to shut out the suit)."  Gary Cohler:  "Seems too normal, but what else can I do?  Double would work if partner knew to pass with honor-third or honor-fourth, but it would work poorly if partner bids three clubs - in contrast, if he pulls two notrump to three clubs, that will be fine.  Two notrump is the value bid and the most descriptive call.  Why mess around with anything else?"  Zia says "This will work most days.  You must have provided the spade ten for a reason.  Pass is not an option, and this is a normal compromise." 

When all is said and done, I wish that I had opened 1 NT on this hand, and handed captaincy to my partner.





Problem B  3 !S  (Veeree, VeredK, Masse24, JCreech, BabsG, YleeXotee, BluBayou, CCR3)

Imps  Both sides vulnerable
You, South, hold:

♠ A 10 5    4    10 7 4   ♣ A K J 9 7 3

SOUTH   WEST   NORTH   EAST
  1 ♣       Pass       1        Pass
  2 ♣       Pass       3 ♣       Pass
   ?         
What call do you make?

You have opened and rebid clubs, while partner bid your singleton and then raised your suit.  With 12 HCPs you have fully described your hand, or have you? Partner freely raising your clubs when he could have passed may change everything; the clubs may now run, so you could easily be bringing seven tricks and only need two from partner for 3 NT.  And before I forget, it is vulnerable at IMPs.  It is your move.

Pass   50   BWP 19%   BWS 27% IAC One solver
The simpliest view is to say I have a minimum with six clubs, I've shown a minimum with six clubs, and I have no moves left to make.  For example, Danny Klienman thinks "A hair more than a minimum (one club if the club jack were the four) but a hair short of a game-try (I'd bid three spades if the four of diamonds were the jack).  Vulnerable at imps offers not only a 10-imp gain for bidding amd making game but also a 7-imp loss for down two in game when three clubs makes with an overtrick.  Good enough odds to tempt me, but not quire enough to seduce me."  Hoki says "I don't feel as if my values and partner's are sufficient to secure nine tricks for a notrump game. After all, I've only got 12 HCPs and partner has shown a distributional hand."  Robert Wolff:  "Especially (preferred) if playing with a partner who will bid two notrump in preference to three clubs if given a close choice."  Adam Grossack feels "This is a good minimum, and clearly there are some constructions where three notrump could be cold.  More likely it is not cold, and my first reaction was to pass."  Chip Martel agrees:  "Nice hand but not a max, and most North hands where game is good would have been a two-notrump bid by partner.  Still, a pushy three spades is tempting."

3 ♠   100   BWP 70%   BWS 56%  IAC 80%
Succumbing to temptation.  Billy Eisenberg considers this to be "A routine try for three notrump or five clubs."  Eric Kokish writes that it "Doesn't take much to make a decent three notrump and it's tempting to bid it withou squealing."   JCreech "Trying for 3 NT seems sensible with partner's club fit - I just hope it is not one of those robot small doubletons.  If partner has red suit coverage, then I likely only need two tricks from him."  Zia comments that "Hamman would bid three notrump.  Probably, he is right."  But where is our resident Hammanite?  Masse24: "IMPs, vul. Too much to give up on a 9 trick game."  Apparently, he is messing around with a trial bid, that happens to have a higher pay off.  Bart Bramley is "Hoping that partner can provide two timely tricks, which is not unduly optimistic.  Grabbing the notrump would be too crude ..."  Eric Rodwell points out that "This is a nice trick-taking minimum.  It looks as if pard should be the declarer, so I bid where I live."  Phillip Alder:  "I hope partner can bid three notrump (holding both red-suit aces and the club queen."  Bruce Rogoff:  "A near-minimum opener has turned into a nice source of tricks with a fast winner on the side.  Three spades is clear.  Three notrump would be an unnecessary gamble."

3    40   BWP One Panelist   BWS 3% IAC No solvers
When trying for 3 NT, I tend to bid where I have values, so I would be disinclined to bid 3 !DEric Kokish (who preferred 3 !S) seems to have qualms as well "I don't much care for three diamonds although any call that lets North become declarer in three notrump is probably okay."  Carl Hudecek did make the choice:  "If partner has the heart ace, four plus clubs, and some round-suit strength, say ♠ Kx    AJxxx    xx   ♣ Qxxx, we might have a game."  The moderator agrees with everything Carl had to say except the bid:  "It seems better to bid where one lives."

3 NT   70   BWP 7%   BWS 12%  IAC One solver
Not many bidding with TGBH.  Even Peuco changed his vote, but initially chose "no info to the opps on what to lead"  But he did make a convert in BluBayou: "Peuco's direct bash to 3NT got me thinking about our probe for it via '3 !S '.  We expect north to coff up '3NT' over this.  But suppose he HAS weakness in diamonds and has to retreat to 4 !C or  [double-yukk]  4 !H  how will we like that.  To Hell with stopper-checking"  Jason Feldman felt that "Looking at seven likely tricks, I can't not bid game.  Sure, the opponents might run a red suit, but a more-scientific approach such as three spades is likely to help the opponents as much if not more than our side."  Larry Cohen:  "To keep with my theme for the month ..."





   
Problem C  2 !D  (BabsG, YleeXotee, VeeRee)

Imps  Neither side vulnerable
You, South, hold:

♠ Q 10 9    A J 7    J 5 4   ♣ Q J 10 3

SOUTH   WEST   NORTH   EAST
  ——      Pass       1 ♣       1
   ?*         
*BWS: double = at least four-four in the majors

What call do you make?

This problem involves responding to partner's opening bid following LHO's interference.  The other pertinent information consists of 11 HCPs mostly consisting of quacks, 3=3=3=4 shape, and Jxx is your contribution to stopping LHO's suit.  By and large, the Panel viewed this as a raise of opener's suit situation with the decision between a simple raise and an invitational raise almost equally split.
 
Double   50   BWP 7%   BWS 2% IAC No solvers
The note on this problem made it quite clear that double would show "at least four-four in the majors" so you would think the option did not apply on this hand.  Larry Cohen understands that the call "Guarantees four-four majors, but nothing too bad can happen.  Maybe partner can bid notrump to rightside the contract with ace-ten-low of diamonds."  Adam Grossack comes to a similar conclusion:  "The definition of this call notwithstanding, there is no other intelligent action.  Neither two clubs nor three clubs is suitable with so many values.  Two diamonds is a close second choice, but with such soft values I would rather listen to the auction and decide later about how strongly I want to act."

1 NT   60   BWP 11%   BWS 27% IAC 40%
Some focused on the hand shape and downgraded the overall values a bit, probably based on the long-time adage of subtracting one point when 4=3=3=3.  JCreech, for example, argues that "The soft values and 4=3=3=3 have me bidding a bit conservatively this round, but willing to accept any invitation.  I went with 1 NT because I have cards to be led into, and at the one-level, Panelists do not seem to care much about guaranteeing a stopper.  If I had a fifth club or a doubleton diamond, I probably would raise clubs."  Kerri and Steve Sanborn "... guess to go low with no tricks to speak of."  Hoki says "I'd rather show a balanced hand than suggest that I have some distribution." And Gary Cohler correctly assesses the MSC points:  "If I choose to underbid, it will be wrong; but the hand looks like notrump, and we are nonvulnerable, so if we miss a game it will be no big deal. ... the distribution is a warning to avoid a suit contract."

2 ♣   90   BWP 37% BWS 23%  IAC 30%
The IAC was evenly split between the slight over or under bids.  BluBayou passionately describes his reasoning:  "If everybody promised to pass,  I could swallow that stopperless, natural, TO PLAY One Notrump (and indeed everybody might just shut up  this deal).  But if some villain manages to say '2 !D '  I will be up the creek  to show my 'Maximum'!  To double after my NT bid would surely need some trump winners--right?  And to support clubs at the 3-level risks partner having the 4=4=2=3 12-count we know he is holding.   When our first response is '2 !C ',  we can double an opp's compete to 2 !D  with a clear conscience.     There is no need to make a cue-invite  with this QT9, AJx,Jxx, QJTx!  It will take a full opening notrump from partner to bring in 8 tricks after he comes up with a diamond stopper."  Masse24 reluctantly agrees: "Originally thought showing a limit raise best, but will now go the other end of the spectrum with a simple raise. It is, ostensibly, a flat 10. At MP it would be a easier to choose 1NT, but I'm going low--even though the panel more often shoots high. (Heaven help me--do I see that Blue also went with 2 !C here?)"  Bart Bramley thinks "The values are too slow for three notrump opposite a balanced opening hand, and we're not vulnerable, so I'll go low.  No need to distort with double or any number of notrump."  Jeff Rubens is "Willing to show a weak raise, since some of the strength may be wasted opposite long clubs."  Jason Feldman is also "Going low for now with 4-3-3-3 and jack-third in the opponent's suit."  Chip Martel feels it "Should be a reasonable partscore; nonvulnerable, one need not stretch with this soft hand."  John Carruthers:  "Don't show this to the children.  This is a nine-loser hand despite all the HCP.  I suppose one notrump will be the popular choice."  John was wrong, and I think Carl Hudecek accurately points to the reason:  "I didn't reach my ripe old age (approaching 90) by freely bidding notrump without a stopper in the opponent's suit.  Two clubs has the preemptive value of not permitting West to show a five-plus-card major cheaply."  Carl, only by passing will that last thought be true; 1 NT, 2 !C and 2 !D all force West to the two-level to show a major.

2    100   BWP 44%   BWS 42% IAC 30%
The slight Panel plurality went to the limit-plus raise.  Ron Gerard shares Carl's stopper concern:  "Treating jack-third of the opponents' suit as a stopper comes to grief.  I'm overbidding, but the imp payoff is for scoring 400 in three notrump.  The jack-ten of clubs will not necessarily be wasted, so almost all of the high cards are working."  Holding his nose, Bruce Rogoff considers the bid "A little gross, but bridge can be a dirty business.  A bit too strong for two clubs, and bidding notrump seems silly when pard could easily hve ace-low of diamonds."  Alan Sontag:  "Ugly, but two clubs would be too conservative."  Zia suggests that "Partner is allowed to have long clubs or a diamond stopper - on a good day, both."  Kit Woolsey:  "Two clubs would be too much of an underbid, and nothing else makes any sense."  Jeff Alexander thinks "About right on values, but I do not like having only four clubs."  It is about time someone mentioned the elephant in the room when it comes to either raise; why can't opener have 4=4=2=3, with only three clubs?  Sure, two clubs would be okay on a 4=3 fit, but with these soft values, do you really want to insist on the three-level following the cue-bid?  I guess that is why they get the big bucks, and I'm writing this for free.



That is it for the first segment.  Hope you found something fun or useful.  I will be back soon with the next two parts, but we are within two weeks of next month's deadline.  Please swing over to vote, and it is particularly nice that when you have a good reason for your bid, that you share.

71
IAC & Master Solvers Club / Re: 2023 February MSC
« on: December 05, 2022, 01:13:17 PM »
My initial thoughts:

Problem A:  4 !H - Preempts work!  I will flip-flop on my answer until the very last day but for now it is the simple overcall.  Spades could be right if partner has a boatload, either red suit could be right with a modest fit.  Is there a sensible route to slam, if it is there?  Probably not, even though ♠ xxxxx   ♥ Jx   ♦ xx   ♣ xxxx would certainly have a  play.

Problem B:  3 !H  What worries me about bidding either red suit is that partner could have continued showing his shape, so bidding either could fall into a poorish fit.

Problem C:  3 NT  Partner asked for a spade stop, and I have one.  The question is whether I am being a wimp by not jumping to 4 NT (hopefully quantitative under the circumstances).

Problem D:  2 !H  Torn between three weak calls.  The 1 NT has already given partner the warning to tread carefully.  I am going with hearts so my hand will be worth some tricks.  I am hopeful that partner has three having bypassed clubs (though that might indicate real diamonds and a stiff heart).

Problem E:  3 !H  Looking for 3 NT, but could end up in a spade contract.

Problem F:  3 !H  I am wanting to avoid 3 NT without a stopper or 5 !D without heart shortness

Problem G:  Dbl  I have enough strength to double and bid my hearts, and who knows, partner may show up with spades.

Problem H:  !H 3  Not sure what to expect for dummy's raise of hearts after bidding both minors.  I don't expect much in declarer's hand for the fourth-suit forcing.  My suspicion is that either the hearts are 4=3=3=3 or that partner and I have the 4=4 fit.

Something must change among my answers - too many hearts!

________________________

No changes, I couldn't find any substitutions that I liked better for the hearts.

SOLUTIONS FOR:
James Creech
FREDERICKSBURG VA 22407-9355
U.S.A.

PROBLEM A: 4 Hearts
PROBLEM B: 3 Hearts
PROBLEM C: 3 Notrump
PROBLEM D: 2 Hearts
PROBLEM E: 3 Hearts
PROBLEM F: 3 Hearts
PROBLEM G: Double
PROBLEM H: Heart 3

72
IAC & Master Solvers Club / Re: 2023 January MSC
« on: November 30, 2022, 03:11:15 AM »
SOLUTIONS FOR:
James Creech
FREDERICKSBURG VA 22407-9355
U.S.A.

PROBLEM A: Double
PROBLEM B: 3 Spades
PROBLEM C: 1 Notrump
PROBLEM D: 4 Clubs  Its IMPs and I cannot stand bringing back a result where we doubled them into a vulnerable game.  Call me chicken.  My heart is still with the pass.
PROBLEM E: 1 Diamond
PROBLEM F: 3 Spades
PROBLEM G: 3 Clubs
PROBLEM H: Heart 10  A different type of chicken.  I still want to hit partner, but I have been hurt these past two months with lone-wolf actions that I still like, just not the points that accompany those positions.  I will go with the unbid suit that has company. 

73
IAC & Master Solvers Club / Re: 2022 December MSC
« on: November 24, 2022, 02:03:18 PM »
Thank you for the kind words, Jack.

I try to place IAC comments more carefully than I do the Panelists - though I try to place all comments in some coherent form.  Sometimes I feel more successful than others.

I have also noticed the use of strategic choices.  Hoki is consistently looking for a bid that would strategically be useful at the table, not the contest.  Todd, though, is sometimes making a table bid and sometimes making a pure, trying to second-guess the Panel, bid.  One thing I always enjoy about Todd's selections is that he is always keeping an eye on what he expects from the Panel and the moderator, even when he chooses something different.

I just wish Todd would provide his early thinking, so we can share in how his perceptions of the problems evolve.  I feel the same about your comments, Jack; I often wish I had a better feel for the evolution of your thoughts on these problems.

Not the case with Jock.  He always wears his thinking on his sleeve, which I sometimes find frustrating (when I am pulling together the summaries), but always enjoy as they are released to the public.  I may not always agree with his thoughts, but I almost always find them thought-provoking.

My two greatest frustrations with IAC's participation in MSC are: (1) That more members do not participate; there are no wrong answers, the scoring is based in part on expert thinking, but seldom is there the near unanimity that was found in this month's Problem D.  In fact, for most problems, the top score is based on a plurality of the Panel, not even a majority.  So, there is a lot of diversity of opinion.  And (2), that many of the IAC solvers who do participate, do not give us any understanding of why they made the choice.  In particular, when an IAC solver picks something unique, and provides no reasoning, we only have the thoughts from the Panel, and they may have missed something important that you noticed.

Anyway - for the Yanks (like me), Happy Thanksgiving!  For everyone else in IAC, have a wonderful day!

74
IAC & Master Solvers Club / Re: 2022 December MSC
« on: November 21, 2022, 08:40:43 PM »
December MSC SUMMARY (Part 3) – Danny Kleinman Director


Problem G  3 NT  (JCreech, BabsG, Masse24, BluBayou, Peuco, CCR3)

Imps  North-South vulnerable
You, South, hold:

♠ A 8    A J 8    A 6   ♣ A K Q J 4 3

SOUTH   WEST   NORTH   EAST
  ——      ——       Pass      3
   ?         
What call do you make? 

Finally, we have some serious debate about which direction the Panel thinks is the best action on a Problem hand.  Partner is a passed hand, RHO opened 3 !H in front of you, you hold 23 HCPs, including a solid six-bagger and all of the outside bullets, and your side is vulnerable while the opponents are not. Do you go with the near certain vulnerable game, or do you risk getting too high with some other action?

6 ♣   40   BWP 7%   BWS 3%  IAC  No solvers
Some just blast into the club slam.  Doub and Wildavsky point out that there is "No intelligent way to choose among three notrump, five clubs, six clubs, and seven clubs."  While Jeff Rubens regards the bid as "Optimistic, but we can't expect partner to cooperate with even the strongest try when he has no ace, no club honor, and very likely no more than the average strength we can expect (which isn't very much when our haand is so strong)."

4 NT   40   BWP 7%   BWS 6%  IAC  No solvers
I try to steer clear of bids that can easily be misinterpreted.  However, the moderator, Danny Kleinman,  clarifies that "BWS is not explicit on this issue, so it rules that four notrump is natural by default.  Still, four notrump has the huge flaw that partner may misinterpret it."  Not certain, Robb Gordon pleads, "Please tell me this isn't 'unusual'!"  Robert Wolff: "Bidding a prosaic three notrump would require adding a prayer for partner to hold a near-yarborough, lest we miss a slam."  Irina Levitina brings to the table the misperception, so she bids something else: "It would be nice if four notrump were natural."  As does Bart Bramley: "I think four notrump shows minors."

3 NT   100   BWP 44%   BWS 57%  IAC 75%
A plurality of the Panel and a majority of the solvers just bid what they know can be made.  JCreech sums up the situation:  "23 HCPs, a probable double stop in the opponents suit, first round control in all suits, and nine almost certain tricks.  There may be a slam in these cards, but I will settle for the almost certain game."  Kit Woolsey wonders "Maybe this is all we can make."  Ron Smith says "Nothing like a sure plus, but I could be missing a slam."  Carl Hudecek: "A close-out call at imps, vulnerable, and with partner a passed hand."  Bart Bramley believes "Partner's pass reduces slam possibilities."  Masse24 finds it "Very tempting to try 6 !C.would be inane - But I rate it as a bit less than 50%."  Zia: "This or six clubs.  I guess if I don't bid six clubs, few will.  A double - of do I mean insane?  King-queen-ten-fifth of spades or diamonds produces an easy grand slam, but queen-ten-fifth in one and king-third in the other is more likely."  Billy Eisenberg thinks that "Though we might miss a good six clubs, we might also go down in five clubs."  Barry Bragin, similarly, "Yes, we might have a laydown grand slam, bug there is no way to investigate intelligently without risking a minus.  I'll play it (very) safe."  Perhaps cruelly, Drew Casen says "Take the money.  Anyone who doubles deserves to see partner reply four diamonds and wind up in a failing five clubs."

Double   90   BWP 41%   BWS 32% 1 solver
WackoJack thinks:  "Easy!  The problem is my next bid over 3 !S."  Kevin Bathurst is "Trying to get my strength across."  And David Berkowitz thinks the hand "Too strong for three notrump."  Some are clearly slamming, Frank Stewart "I plan to bid six clubs, hoping that North has about 6 points - his fair share of what's missing.  I will have a good play if he holds something resembling:  ♠ Kxxx    xx    QJxxx   ♣ xx.  If I double first, I may hear something helpful.  I am stuck by the psychology of slam bidding.  Pairs that are quick to bid by iffy vulnerable games are slow to bid even slightly speculative slams."  Marty Bergen's plans are more elaborate: "Six clubs may make easily opposite a very week hand such as:  ♠ Kxxx    x    xxxxx   ♣ 10xx.  I expect partner to advance three spades, and I will then bid three notrump.  But if he bids at the four-level, it's off to slam I go.  After four diamonds, a hopeful six clubs; after for spades, a confident six clubs; after four hearts, I'll envision a stiff heart and dream of seven clubs; after four notrump (choice of minors), I'll bid seven clubs, expecting to claim."






Problem H  !S 5  (CCR3, Peuco, BluBayou, Masse24)

Imps  Both sides vulnerable
You, South, hold:

♠ 9 8 6 5 4    10 3    A 2   ♣ A J 10 6

SOUTH   WEST   NORTH   EAST
  ——      ——      Pass      1 ♣*
  Pass      1        Pass      1 ♠
  Pass      2        Pass      2 NT
  Pass      3 NT      (All Pass)
*BWS: East-West use Bridge World Standard

What is your opening lead?

The moderator paints the picture:  "The vote chart doesn't paint the best picture of this problem, which encompasses three issues:  (1)Active defense or passive?  (2) If passive, hearts or spades?  (3) If a black suit, which card?" 

♣ J   40   BWP 11%   BWS 10%  IAC 1 solver
Making an active lead, Carl Hudecek "I expect to be in the plurality."  He's wrong, because most went passively.  Hoki: "am always a sucker for 'standard' leads; really can’t see how a spade lead into declarer’s four card suit which is likely to contain two or three honors can help us."  Nick L'Ecuyer thinks the lead "Our best shot to take five tricks before declarer takes nine."  However, Joel Wooldridge finds "A club lead has little appeal to me, as it would let declarer win the king easily, and leading the jack would weaken my holding in the suit."

♣ 6   30   BWP 7%   BWS 5%  IAC  No solvers
Alternatively, Kevin Bathurst is "... hoping partner can contribute a club and then gain the lead to continue clubs.  If a club lead is wrong, it's probably fatal."  A good point by Kevin, if an active lead is wrong, it can be very wrong.

10   70   BWP 30%   BWS 31%  IAC  No solvers
Both plurality choices involved passive leads.  David Berkowitz argues "As suits do not appear to be splitting favorably for declarer, I see no reason to do anything but defend passively."  Barry Bragin thinks that "Partner appears to have at least four, maybe five hearts.  I can hope that when he gets in he will see from dummy's holdings that my values, and our defensive prospects, lie in clubs."  Marty Bergen says "In my dreams, partner has the heart king and the club queen.  I definitely would have overcalled one spade."  Frank Stewart: "But the spade nine if North flickered over three notrump."  Zia is "Combining aggression and hope.  A spade lead is all right but not ambitious enough."  The heart apparently received a lower score because of the passive suits, it was chosen less often.

♠ 9   80   BWP 11%   BWS 18%  IAC 25%
Based on BWS understanding, if you are going to lead a spade, then the nine is one partner should expect - second highest from length unless the highest card is touching, then the highest card is selected.  WackoJack writes, "I chose 9 !S without looking at the bidding.  Then I looked and still chose the 9 !S."  Robert Wolff thinks it is the "Least risk of blowing a trick.  Second choice, ten of hearts, but I'd rather leave hearts to declarer to attack, for the ten may have surprising value as the second or fourth card to play to a trick."  And Phillip Alder:  "Only because everything else looks worse."

♠ 5   100   BWP 30%   BWS 22%  IAC 50%
The other plurality choice was the !S 5.  Bart Bramley considers the lead to be "Automatic.  Spades is best both for setting up tricks and for avoiding blowing tricks.  The five is much better than the ninm as dummy may will have a short honor that declarer will surely play."  According to BluBayou's analysis: "... leading around to declarer's pretty good spade suit:  I am KEEPING  my 9-8 for later!.  If there is a mighty crash of honors on the first two tricks,  the  9-8  may have grown up into 'something",  and I may be glad to have a pusher later to set up the fourth round.  My motive  is not ENTIRELY  to go passive, you see, so I don't care if I have given partner a wrong message too much  (In fact  I will be pleased as punch  if he even gets in, before I do!)"  Joel Wooldridge sound a bit like Jock:  "Leading the nine could cost a trick when partner has two honors doubleton."  Jeff Rubins is thinking differently:  "I hope to induce declarer to put up dummy's likely doubleton honor; by retaining the nine and eight, I'll be able to continue spades safely later if necessary."  Brian Platnik: "Leading a higher spade could cost a trick.  If partner wins an early trick and needs to shift to clubs, I may regret not having led a higher spot."  Kit Woolsey says "Safe enough, and my spots in spades may come through for tricks."  Eric Kokish thinks "North doesn't need much behind dummy's likely singleton or doubleton honor for this to work."  And actually responding to Jock elsewhere in the thread, Masse24 says "Not crazy. I actually like this. ;)Ron Smith, though, has a different concern attached to his lead: "I'll never be accused of cheating.  My leads are not so hot."

♠ 6   90   BWP 11%   BWS 2%  IAC  No solvers
The six is an interesting alternative, trying to alter the message of a low spade, while retaining the high spades as pushers.  Doub and Wildavsky "We like spades; the issue is high or low.  The nine will keep partner from giving declarer a trick by playing high from king-third or ace-ten-low.  The five will let us lead the nine later when declarer's spades include the seven.  The guiding principle is:  trick-taking takes priority over signaling.  The five risks misleading partner, but we deem it a risk worth taking.  Between the five and six; the six seems wishy-washy, no better than the five and sometimes worse."  Drew Casen "I don't want to waste the nine with length on my right, and I can't lead lower when I am likely to want a club shift.  So I lead middle in the hope that partner can figure it out."

♠ 8/4   70   BWP No Panelists   BWS 9%  IAC 1 solver
No Panelists went with the other two spade options; the eight might have been sloppy, selecting the second highest, but not so the four.  JCreech had "... decided that a low spade was best based on Blu's thinking, but went with the false card to since partner is unlikely to be harmed, and it may give declarer an incorrect inferential count of the hand."

75
IAC & Master Solvers Club / Re: 2022 December MSC
« on: November 19, 2022, 01:51:53 PM »
December MSC SUMMARY (Part 2) – Danny Kleinman Director


Problem D  Pass (CCR3, BluBayou, WackoJack, BabsG,  Masse24, JCreech)

Imps  North-South vulnerable
You, South, hold:

♠ 8 5 3 2    Q J 5 2    —   ♣ A Q 10 9 7

SOUTH   WEST   NORTH   EAST
  ——      ——      ——        4
  Pass      Pass    Double   Pass
   ?         
What call do you make?

The opponents open 4 !H in first seat, partner reopens with a double in the passout seat, and now it is your turn holding four trump to the QJ, a very nice 5-bagger in clubs, a ragged 4-bagger in spades, and, of course, that leaves a void in diamonds.  Let us not forget that the vulnerability favors the opponents.  Although there are several choices, Danny Kleinman, the moderator, laments that "The overwhelming majority for the penalty pass obscures the closeness of the decision.  There's no science to help us, nor much information of any kind on which to base judgment."
 
4 ♠   40   BWP 7%   BWS 28%  IAC 1 solver
One option is to bid the spade game.  If you have gme, then the penalty may not be enough to cover the vulnerable game.
Carl Hudecek "Could be easy opposite four decent spades and the king of clubs.  If the oppenents have a diamond fit, this could be a double-game-swing deal."

6 ♣   30   BWP 1 Panelist   BWS 1%  IAC   No solvers
Bidding clubs, Marc Jacobus answer was better than his choice: "No good answer."  On this problem, it truly is a guess.  Even the moderator admired the bid:  "If you're right a whopping big gain awaits you.  Four spades making earns us 3 imps when four hearts doubled goes down three, but six clubs making earns us 13 imps, and as far as we know each may be equally iffy."

Pass   100   BWP 89%   BWS 66%  IAC 75%
The reason why people preempt is that it works, and sometimes when you are fixed, the best course is to stay fixed.  The vulnerability makes it extremely tempting to bid,  but at the four-level and above, with a hand such as you hold, the risk-reward calculation may leave you wanting.  Jeff Rubens puts it in terms of a "Bird-and-a-half in the hand versus highly-variable potential in the bush."  Masse24 wants  to "Take the plus."  Brian Platnik found an interesting way to avoid the temptation of bidding:  "I didn't bid hearts with six-five-four-deuce in Problem C, so to be consistent I refuse to bid spades with eight-five-three-deuce."  Robert Wolff is "Listening to what my cards tell me, not to the voiceless hopes of cards unseen.  we may be cold for a black-suit game, even slam, but we cannot get there without taking inordinate risks."  JCreech says "I have a lot of defense for my bidding up to this point, so I will try for the penalty for a plus."  Kit Woolsey thinks "The heart holding is worth two more tricks with hearts trump than with a black suit trump.  To bid either clubs or spades is to guess, and even if we have a game, we might score more on defense."  Phillip Alder says "I cannot be sure of a spade fit.  If five clubs scores 600 and four hearts doubled earns only 500, we may lose 3 imps or none at all."  WackoJack points to the "Possible but uncertain 620 missed. Bet on the more likely defend for +300 or 500."  Drew Casen: "If I knew which game figured to make, I would bid it.  What I do know is that four hearts will be beaten badly.  Take the money."  Joel Wooldridge writes: "The spades are weak and the splits may be bad.  I'd bid four spades at matchpoints, as I think it is likely to make, but not at imps where the difference in scores may be small even when it does make.  Passing guards against partner's having only three spades or our finding exceeding bad breaks."  Marty Bergen "As partner is unlimited, anything is possible, but I want the sure plus."  Barry Bragin: "Glad it's imps as 500 vs 650 isn't a disaster.  Yes, we might have a slam, but partner might not have four strong spades and is unlikely to bid more anyway."  Circling round, Irina Levitina says "When opponents preempt and you must guess, guess to go plus."






Problem E  2 NT  (Peuco)

Imps  East-West vulnerable
You, South, hold:

♠ Q    A K Q 10 8    Q 7 5   ♣ A K 8 5

SOUTH   WEST   NORTH   EAST
  ——      ——      Pass      Pass
  1        2         Pass      Pass
   ?         
What call do you make?

You hold 20 HCPs, most of which are in your two longest suits, hearts and clubs.  You opened 1 !H in third seat, but West overcalled.  If the overcall had been in spades, this would not have been much of a problem, but the overcall was in diamonds. This leaves you with a dubious stopper and a outside singleton to make either a double or NT less than obvious choices, while the suits are either too short or the level too high to make them desirable.

2    40   BWP 7%   BWS 4  IAC   No solvers
Choosing to rebid hearts, Joel Wooldridge says "I prefer two hearts, because the suit is powerful, and I'd rather not play in three clubs opposite three-card support."

3 ♣   40   BWP 7%   BWS 45%  IAC 75%
Trying clubs at the three-level to show nine cards, David Berkowitz is not even tempted:  "Automatic for me.  This hand will play so well opposite four-card ... support that I am disappointed even to see this problem here."  Wait a minute - this was his response on Problem C when the long suit was AK-sixth and the second suit was 6-fourth - while this time David bid 2NT - I wonder where the automatic went?  Let's check out some who actually bid 3 !CRobert Wolff said "Bid what I have and hope for the best.  ... North may well have long clubs and short diamonds, in which case we might make five clubs.  Little risk in trying?"  Masse24 is more succinct:  "Bid what I have."  WackoJack wonders "What else?"  Zia answers:  "I considered two notrump, but that would risk a spade lead and umpteen tricks for the opponents before we took any.  Partner is likely to have at least four clubs, and we may have a super fit."  JCreech: "Without length in the spade suit, and length in the diamonds, double is clearly wrong.  Qxx is a shaky stop at best, so I am not inclined to bid NT unilaterally.  That leaves cue-bid looking for help and 3 !C.  I prefer to bid where I live; partner still has room to cue-bid and ask if NT is right."  Hoki: "since I’d hate the thought of having to cope with 2♠ from partner should I double."

2 NT   100   BWP 44%   BWS 19%  IAC 1 solver
So what happened with Mr.  Show-my-shape David Berkowitz, he argues that "As I might have opened two notrump, I see no reason not to bid it now."  Barry Bragin has what I consider to be the best argument for the bid:  "Too strong to give up on game. A double would risk partner's insisting on spades.  I can hope that North has enough bits and pieces to keep East off lead and protect my tenuous diamond stopper."  Kit Woolsey feels that "Passing would be too risky, and notrump is most-likely game."  Phillip Alder: "Not without risk, of course, but with a good potential upside."  Eric Kokish says "Roughly what the hand is worth, and as such, often the simplest solution to a tough problem."  Nick L'Ecuyer "Not perfect, but the least of evils."  This was not a rousing endorsement for the bid that garnered the top score.

Pass   70   BWP 30%   BWS 11%  IAC 1 solver
Frank Stewart describes well why a pass should be considered: "If West has any kind of vulnerable, two-level overcall, I can't see our side making game.  I'll settle for a plus on defense."  Brian Platnik says "My first thought was to bid two notrump, but, on reflection, I doubt that we have a game, and we're more likely to go plus defending."  BluBayou "too few values left for pard to have;  2!D overcall may be their 'last mistake'"  Jeff Rubens thinks this is the "Best chance (a good chance!) for a plus; game looks unlikely."  Carl Hudecek went for the surprise:  "Partner couldn't eke out a heart raise or double.  Maybe he can eke out an 'Eek!' after he sees my hand."  While Irina Letitina asks "Where are all the spades?"  The moderator responds "Good question!  Unless the opponents have eight spades, in which case they've missed their best spot, North has at least five.  either way, we should be happy not to give the spade holders another chance to bid."

Double   50   BWP 11%   BWS 19%  IAC   No solvers
Going where few have dared to tred on this Problem, Kevin Bathurst says "Pass is tempting, but we could easily have a good game."





Problem F  2 !D  (BluBayou, WackoJack, Hoki, Masse24)

Imps  North-South vulnerable
You, South, hold:

♠ A K 5 4   ♥ —   ♦ K J 7 6 4   ♣ A K Q 4

SOUTH   WEST   NORTH   EAST
  ——      ——      ——       2 ♣*
   ?         
*six-plus clubs (or five clubs with a four-card major); 11-15 HCP

What call do you make?

So far in five hands, we have seen three voids and three singletons, usually in less than the most useful of suits.  With this Problem, add another less-than-useful void to the totals.  The opponents have opened a natural 2 !C, and while you have the club suit completely controlled, it is with high cards, while your void is in hearts.  And with your strength added to the promised range of opener, LHO and partner have 5 to 9 points to split between them.  Is there a way to bring partner into the discussion, and show the strength and distribution of your hand?

Pass   40   BWP 7%   BWS 9%  IAC   No solvers
Having no good bid to make, some pass and pray.  Billy Eisenberg "Hoping for West to try two hearts."  Barry Bragin "When there is no good bid, choose No Bid.  This might end the auction, but so might any other call (except a double, which flirts with a major disaster).  I hope the opponents' methods allow for a non-invitational two-hear response.  That will offer me a perfect way back into the auction."

2    100   BWP 56%   BWS 32%  IAC   50%
Others give up on showing the strength, and hope that by showing the long suit, there will be an opportunity to show the strength later.  As WackoJack writes "I will risk a pass out.  Double or 2NT looks wrong"  Bart Bramley believes that "With the entire heart suit out there, I should get another chance.  The same theory might suggest passing now, but I'm less sanguine about a second chance if I do that.  ... Playing in two diamonds is not necessarily a bad outcome."  Masse24: "Tactical. A double would let west off the hook. This will elicit the presumed 2 !H from west and if it comes round to me I can show my spades."  Hoki also claims "another 'tactical' choice since the thought of having to cope with some number of hearts bid from partner over a double or notrump bid is traumatic"  Carl Hudecek says "If partner bids hearts, I will bid spades.  This is too strong a hand to pass two clubs.  Look how well it plays opposite five low spades and out."  Brian Platnik thinks "This looks about average for a vulnerable, two-level Eric-Kokish overcall."  While Eric Kokish, himself, says "Great hand, terrible suit: atypical for direct action but maybe it will find a fit or someone will bid hearts.  At this vulnerability, one mustn't pass with so much strength."  BluBayou: "can't expect to really enjoy  +50"  And Zia gets the last word for this choice: "Save me, someone!  Someone will, right?  I couldn't handle a double and the ensuing..."

Double   60   BWP 26%   BWS 52%  IAC   50%
Still others try to get across the strength, despite the imperfect shape.  Robb Gordon points out that it is "Hard to show a big hand without doubling first."  Robert Wolff continues by saying "We must suggest huge strength.  From there, we will do our best to sort out where to land, making every effort to avoid a heart contract, unless partner insists by showing at least seven decent hearts."  JCreech is more concerned about the poor shape:  "I hate doubling without hearts, but at least I can takeout partner's hearts with spades and suggest both pointed suits."

3 NT   40   BWP 7%   BWS 3  IAC  No solvers
Preferring to concentrate on their triple stop in clubs while ignoring the void, some tried 3 NT.  Jeff Rubens writes "Failure to double first suggests playing strength (probably ong diamonds) rather than at least a moderate fit for the unbid suits - not great, but the best I can do."  And Phillip Alder says "I refuse to double with a heart void.  Two notrump would be a big underbid, but if we belong in spades, two notrump would give us more change of getting there."  Interesting - refuse to double with a heart void, but to bid the NT game with the same void and no information about partner's hand is ok - go figure.

2 ♠   30   BWP 1 Panelist   BWS 1  IAC  No solvers
Frank Stewart is "Choosing this bid in honor of Mike Lawrence, with whom I have debated the merits of four-card overcalls.  South should point toward the most-likely game, and if I happen to catch North with a big spade fit, I will reach game."

Pages: 1 ... 3 4 [5] 6 7 ... 46