What do we know, and when do we know it?
Players are told to count. Of course we all should.
And times when we all fall short.
As with most things, some problems are easier than others. I want to use this hand to illustrate.
Dummy
8
AQ75
AK1086
A53
Declarer
932
KJ1094
Q5
1086
You are playing 5
and the defense starts with the A and then the K of spades. What is there to count? Well, we have 9 trump so they have 4. Our KJT9 are higher than any of theirs (maybe not exactly counting, but useful). Ths means that we can, if we wish, ruff high, come to hand by leading a small trump, ruff another spade high, back to hand with a small trump, and then, even if trumps are 4-0 we can draw trumps
Ok, that's counting the trump suit.
We need 11 tricks. Where are they? We can get two spade ruffs, five hearts, three diamonds, one club. 2+5+3+1=11.
That's counting winners.
From this we conclude: As soon as the second spade hits the able from LHO, we are certain of 11 tricks.
I mention this because I frequently see play where a hand simply cannot go down but does. Sometimes I am even the declarer.
The point is that counting can be tough, here it is not at all tough. For 11 tricks we ruff spades draw trumps, and then, after drawing trumps, we can take tricks in the side suits.
Ok, now suppose we are in 6
. Same beginning: LHO leads the spade A and the spade K.
We count trump as before and realize we can play as above. We count tricks and see that we have 11 certain tricks. We need to find trick number 12. Where can it come from? Surely it must be from diamonds. Two possibilities:
Q and then small toward the T, or
Q, small to the AK and then ruff a D in hand. The first works if the J is on your left, the second if diamonds are divided no worse than 4-2. As the cards lie the first line works but the second does not. Otoh, if E holds the Jx of diamonds the second line works but the first does not.
The important point here is that counting your winners has made it clear what you need. You need four tricks in diamonds. You can think of it as needing four tricks in Ds or you can think of it as needing to pitch two clubs, it comes to the same thing.
Now here is one more thing. Again it's not exactly counting but sort of. You have played three of the hearts from your hand. You have:
Dummy
AK1086
A5
Declarer
94
Q5
1086
Take a moment. What harm can it do to play another heart, pitching another club? Whether you plan to finesse or play for the 4-2 (or better) split, you can still do it after you lead one more heart.
Of course you might say Ok, it does no harm but what good does it do?
Maybe a lot. Your LHO discarded two spades as you drew the last two trump. His remaining cards are all in the minors. He has to pitch something on this next heart. Suppose he pitches a diamond. You now play the
Q and everyone follows. Now just a little more counting. The opponents started with 6 diamonds. You have now seen three, after the pitch and everyone following. You claim. The play is small D to the A, then the D K, then ruff a D with your last trump and you lead a club to the good board.
Would he pitch a diamond? Well, he holds 7 cards. The clubs are Kx. His choice was to pitch a club, blanking his K, or pitch a D. And he knows nothing of your minor suit holding. Maybe you have the club Q, maybe you have the diamond Q, maybe you have both, maybe you have neither. He has to find the right play. There might not be a right play, he might not find it.
So: Looking at the hand at the beginning you see that you can ruff the two spades and draw trump without ever exposing the rest of your hand. That sounds good. You have 11 tricks and two choices for how to get to 12. You play an extra trump and maybe they have a problem. They do.
My main point: Some counting is inferential, some counting is a lot of work, but here you benefit greatly if you count how many trumps the opponents have and how many tricks you have . Not all counting is equal. Sometimes it's tough, sometimes it's easy. Start simple.