I had to look up the Rule of 2-3-4 just to be certain.
https://www.larryco.com/bridge-articles/rule-of-234LC says KQJT95 / 54 / K52 / 54 is a 6 trick hand for purposes of this Rule, you count the K as a trick. Maybe so. At any rate, it seems like a fine 2
opening regardless of the Rule.
With that in mind, the 2
opener can have
Kx / xxx / KQJT85 / xx
or
Kx / xx / KQJT85 / xxx
or
Kxx / x / KQJT85 / xxx
and that's just for starters.
It's true I have given declarer the
8 instead of the 9, responder has the 9, but I know nobody who would let his decision on a 2
opening depend on whether he held the 8 or the 9.
In all three of these hands there are 11 tricks and a play for 12 once declarer gets the lead. In the first hand, 5
is hopeless but 3NT will make more often than not, namely whenever the 7 outstanding hearts split 4-3.
In the second hand 3NT is less likely. It makes if the hearts are 4-4. Or maybe they don't find a heart lead when they are 5-3 if the hand holding the three hearts is on lead. But 5
is on (pretty firm) ice.
In the third, 5
seems extremely likely, and 6
has decent chances. Say they start with a heart and then either play another, ruffed, or shift to something. If clubs are 3-3 or if the
J falls we are home. Combined, that's a little over 50%. But there are also squeeze possibilities, helped along by the count rectification at T1. Of course they might not give this help, but often they will. If they start with a heart and belatedly shift to a spade I think it is best to win on the board. If a !c -
squeeze is needed the threats should be the
J and the long spade in declarer's hand, so we need to preserve the entry.
Anyway, 6
is probably a stretch unless we can find out more about partner's hand. Generally we try first to see which of any game should be bid and then, after that is settled we consider slam.
My guess is that more often than not there are exactly 11 tricks in a diamond contract, while 3NT is iffy. For one thing, in the sample hands I gave the 2
opener the
K. If, instead, he has the
K then 5
should be safe from his side, but 3NT will not be safe unless I can find a way to make him the declarer, and I have no idea how to do that.
So, at the table, I probably just raise to 5
. It should be right most times, and the direct route might save us by not posting a road map to the best defense if there is one.
Back to LC for a moment.
About the Rule: "It is a reasonable guideline, but can't be taken too seriously."
About the suit: "I am a big believer in suit quality."
This is pretty much the way I think about it. If pard opens a vul weak 2, I hope his suit is better than KJxxxx. Even with KJxxx my Ax might, with luck, suffice, but I would hope for a better suit with the vul 2
call.