Interesting auction the bots had. One I would not have considered. But I sorta like it.
My auction: 1
— 2
a 3
b — 3
c 3
d — 3NT
e4
f — 4NT
g 5NT
h — 6
i7
j — 7
k . . . (maybe even 7NT)
a) GF - though GIB and many others play this as 4+ (and I do too with most people), I am starting to play it as 5+.
b) Extras - I have always preferred that a high reverse shows extras. Roughly 15+.
c)
are trump!
d)
control
e) Serious 3NT
f)
control
g) RKCB for
h) Two key cards and a void . . . which on this auction must be spades, inferentially giving North three diamonds.
i) Queen ask. Pretty standard that next step is queen ask, plus -- this is Kantar's method. Here, North knows South is groping for the grand since the auction is already at the 6-level.
j) Yes, trump Q plus the
King.
k) Grand -- okey dokey. Almost pulled the trigger on 7NT.
South can't legitimately--with confidence--pull the trigger on either 7!H or 7NT. Can he?
The decision to go to the 7-level, though, is really made when he asks for the trump Queen after partner shows two keys and a
void. His 6
Queen ask gives partner permission to go to the 7-level. South has a close, difficult decision after partner's 5NT. The only clue he has is that North promised extras. He knows of partner's two aces at this point. He knows partner has nothing in the
suit (except three cards). So where is the rest of partner's paint?
It's not a terrible gamble ---- at worst about 49+ percent? (Where is Ken when you need a math guy?)
Knowing of the 8-card
fit, the Jack will drop any time the suit is 3-2 or 4-1 with the Jack stiff. 72.5% or so. But South also needs the
suit to run. But not knowing of the
Jack, all South knows is the 8-card fit with AKQ, which requires a 3-2 split (only 68%) to run.
Without a red Jack--which is what South is hoping North has at least one of--I calculate the 7-level contracts at between 49% and 50%.
With the
Jack, 7NT is about 72.5% (Help me out, Ken!) --- the percentage of the
suit running without the Jack. With the
Jack (and not the
Jack), the hearts must run, so 68%.
A worthwhile gamble--due to the possibility of North possessing a red jack--assuming everyone else bids the small slam?
ADDED: I created a Bridgewinners bidding poll with the South hand, using my auction above, with the moment of truth coming after partner's 5NT response to our RKCB ask. It is more or less a consensus to make a move toward the grand. Most people asking for the Queen with 6
.
So we're committed to playing in 7 of something if partner has the trump queen.
Whether those polled agreed with my auction to that point is unknown.