Very definitely not certain to succeed. As near as I can tell, the only chance of bringing in the slam if Lho has all four clubs is that the shape be precisely 4=3=3=3. And I am pretty sure that to make it work, declarer must start with a small club from hand. This way Lho must duck with the K. It would not be worthwhile to try this if it seriously endangered the chance of success when Rho has all four clubs, but the increase in danger is slight. When Lho has the clubs, the J will be taken by the K and then we have to get to the board twice to lead toward the AQ8x. After Rho wins the
at T2, he will have to help by putting us on the board (or by helpfully leading a
). Say he leads a
, we win on the board and lead a small
, Rho must split because we knw he has them all, we cover, now we must get back to the board to repeat. Probably go back with a
. This could go wrong but I think the chance is pretty good for one trip to the board.
All in all this slight increase in danger when the clubs lie to the right is worth it to give us this shot at making it when the clubs all lie to the left.
Added: I decided to look up the actual hands.
: 543
: 7632
: 64
: KT96
: AT9
: K2
: Q54
: AKT
: AK2
: QJ5
: J753
: AQ842
: QJ876
: J98
: T9873
: void
As you can see, you can make the hand either by winning the opening lead of the
Q on the board and then leading the
J, or you cam make the hand by winning the opening lead in hand and leading a small
to the J. Now suppose the cards lie, instead, as
: 76543
: 7632
: 7643
:
: AT9
: K2
: Q54
: AKT
: AK2
: QJ5
: J753
: AQ842
: QJ8
: J98
: T98
: KT96
With this lie, you go down if you win on the opening
lead board and then play the
J, but you still make the hand if you let the
run to your hand and lead a small
toward the J.
It is true that this second line introduces a modest danger that if all four clubs are on the right, and we win the first trick in hand, we have to get back to the board twice.Declarer will put us back there the first time, then we finesse, then we have to get back a second time. Presumably Rho, if he holds a void in one of the red suits, will lead the other after he takes the
J. We win on the board, take the finesse, attempt to go back in the other red, and it gets ruffed. That's a danger, yes, but I think that going with this slight danger is worth it in order to make the contract when, instead of one of the res suits splitting 7-0, Lho has a 3=3=3=4 shape. That seems more likely than a 7-0 split in one of the reds. Among other things, if Lho had seven hearts to the JT9 I think the opening lead would have been the 1H J. And perhaps the
T from seven diamonds to the T98 although in fact he did have close to that. And maybe there would have been a double to indicate a void. Further, if Rho does have a red suit void you are not out of the woods when you win T1 on the board and lead the
J covered by the K. Anyway, I think it's best to let the
ride to hand and lead a small