Three recent preempts with good hands

[jcreech]

Number 1
Dlr: S
Vul: E-W
                KQ2
                8
                AQT963
                KQ9
93                 A75
642               AKQT753
54                 K7
JT7652          3
                JT864
                J9
                J82
                A84

In this first hand, partner opened 1 in third seat, and East overcalled 4 .  My brain screamed out to bid 4 (accepting the transfer in some of my f2f circles), but to bid that directly would suggest greater strength and partner might go slamming.  So I passed, hoping (though I think I should be expecting) a reopening double, so that I could bid spades.  None of that happened, so they made 4 , when we could make 4 .

While at the other table, the bidding remained lower longer, my hand was able to show spades at the one-level, and E-W were eventually pushed to the five level going down.

Number 2
Dlr: W
Vul: None
               
                T86432
                AQJ982
                4
QJ93                865
9                     AKQJ75
K654                 T
8732                 AK9
                AKT742
               
                73
                QJT65

At the other table, East opened 4 in third seat, and South accepted the transfer, which was doubled by West.  Other than the trump stack, I have no idea what tricks West expected to take for the double, but 500 later South was thoroughly brutalized.

At our table, my partner opened the 6-6 1 , which shut out East, I responded 1 , partner bid 2 and then passed my spade invite of 3 .  I lost the same tricks, but one level lower and undoubled.  I was stunned with the auction at the other table, then when I looked at partner's hand, was also stunned at our auction as well.

Number 3:
Dlr: W
Vul:Both

                92
                T54
                A863
                Q876
QT87            
K973             J862
T9                 KQJ2
T92              AK543
                AKJ6543
                AQ
                754
                J

This hand came from the IAC survivor pairs event, and I saw it discussed following the event.  The reported auction was East opening in third seat with 1 , South overcalling 4 , and this was passed out.  To me it was even more automatic for east to reopen with a double, than it was in the first hand.  Void in spades and 4 or 5 card support for all other suits and sound opening values.  Partner, with the right hand can either bid any other suit or pass for penalty.  Looking a two probably trump tricks and a possible side defensive card, I would pass with the West hand for a nice profit. 

Being matchpoints, the profit would not have been as great as it likely would have been at IMPs.  Most pairs stayed below game making or going for a small loss (one was making 2 doubled).  So at IMPs, we would be looking at a swing of 12 or more (which can often mean the match), but at matchpoints, they were already getting 80%, while the double would increase that to 96%.

I'm not sure what the similarity in these hands says about anything, but it struck me that in the course of two days, I don't see this sort of decision being made that often.  The fact that the partner of the preempter was already a passed hand, and in two instances also included the opponents opening in front of them, certain reduces the chance that partner has the right tickets for something more than game.  But are there other lessons as well?

[kenberg]

I have often thought that opposite a passed hand a jump should be described as preemptive rather than weak. In these cases the bids are definitely preemptive, getting quickly to a reasonable contract and shutting out bidding room, but they are not weak.  On hand 1, the idea is that 4 is probably a good place to play, making or not, and let them guess.
   
Now would I have bid 4 on board 1, red against white? I doubt it, this seems extreme even if partner is a passed hand. When opponents open the bidding we are usually aiming for a competitive auction hoping for a part score, a game, or pushing them up, but on this particular E hand I think a slam is not out of the question.  So I probably double 1 .  I don't think of a jump to 4 is rock bottom crazy, just I think I would start with a double.  With the N hand, after P - P - 1 - 4 - P - P  I guess I would probably double but yes, I am pretty tentative. As noted, 4 makes. My partner is not always going to have five spades and the A of clubs. Nor will he always make the right choice, even if there is a right choice available. So here, the jump to 4 paid off well. 
Added,  just for amusement: EW have a  10 card heart fit, NS have an 8 card spade fit, so LOTT predicts that the number of tricks in a spade contract plus  the number of tricks in a heart contract should add to 10+8=18. In fact there are 10 ricks in spades and 10 tricks in hearts so LOTT is off by 2. It's also true that making 10 tricks in spades might depend on choices made by both the defense and the offense. Suppose the defense begins with a spade to the K, ducked. If declarer goes after his ruff by leading a heart, E wins and plays the A and another spade.  Now declarer goes down at least 1. Declarer needs to establish the suit early on to make 4 .  Since the split 2-2 he can do that. Of course 4 off 1 is still good when the opponents can make 4 as they easily can here.   

I'll be interested in what others think.

As to hand 2, no, I don't think I open the N hand even in third seat. I can imagine that E might think the 1 opening by N was a psych, but probably he  keeps away from 4 !.  My thinking with a hand such as North's, after two passes to me, is that the opponents will be playing in spades whether I open or not, and I think I will just shut up. Let them figure how to bid and play the hand without any hints from me.  Give me 6-6 but with the strength in the suit rather than the suit and maybe I open 3rd seat, but not here. When I do open on shape my usual plan is to pull partner's first penalty double, that should clarify, and then sit for any later penalty double that he makes.

On hand 3, it's worth noting that N has two spades.  South's spade suit, seven to the AKJ empty, is not nearly as self-supporting as North's heart suit in hand 1, seven to the AKQT, so S needs and gets some spade help. Further, N has the A.  Still, 4 X is going for a number.  I think a 1 overcall is plenty. With careful defense, seven tricks appears to be the limit in a spade contract. While that's a bit unlucky, a 4 contract seems wildly optimistic.   Added, again for amusement: There is a nine card spade fit and an eight card heart fit so LOTT says 9+8=17 total tricks. It seems pretty clear (I suppose I could be missing something) that spades can be held to 7 tricks and hearts to 9 so this time LOTT over-estimates the number of tricks by 1 while on hand 1 it under-estimates by 2. I think that LOTT, on average, comes out about right but on any particular board it is often off, sometimes in one direction, other times in the other direction. Here, on hand 3, I think 1 over 1 is very sensible.