As to the seriousness of the problem, well, it's a Dare hand and Dare hands often consider extreme possibilities. In this case a llist of references was provided at teh end of the tourney:
"Hands today are from ACBL Bulletin: combining chances - Shafer201703; transfer loser - Alder201703a; card combinations - Cohen201703;
restricted choice - Cohen201804; trump coup - Horton201711; cut def communiction - RosenbergBW201904; combining chances - Lawrence201703a; NO TIP yet on 8 |69".
This came from "card combinations - Cohen201703" and indeed this is exactly what Cohen addresses.
Rho has
K96 and Lho has
AQ82. If Rho gets in and leads the
9 then they can take four
tricks, if he leads anything else declarer at least can hold them to three
tricks. If the 6 is led to the J and Q, and then the 2 back to the K, Rho now leads the 9 and, if declarer reads the lie right, he plays low. It might not be obvious to do so, but it works. If the 9 and 8 are interchanged then the defense could survive the lead if the 8 rather than the 8.
Dare hands are not to be thought of as matchpoints. the idea is always to ensure the contract. In this case, after the T falls under the !, there are a sure 9 tricks as long as the T is not a false card. If Rho holds the QTx in
then you have a problem. But if the T is either stiff or from QT, then playing a small
to the K ensures the contract. As it happens, this drops the Q and there are tricks galore. But if instead Rho shows out when you play the K that means Lho was dealt Qxxx and you just lead the j from the board, establishing the suit. Well, not quite. As Cohen also points out in the article, you need to cash the
K at T3 before the
to the K. This way you get 3
tricks, 5
tricks and 1
trick, and they cannot first take a
and four
.
So it's a Dare hand and Dare hands address hands where extra care pays off.
In the after game discussion I mentioned that this was what I thought was called a surrounding play but it was a sophisticated version of one, and that seems to be the case. In its more prosaic forms it comes up from time to time. Something likes this (just one suit shown):
Defender; AJ9x (on lead)
Dummy: Txx
Defenders want to pick up the entire suit and they need to do it before declarer gets the lead. If partner has Kxx and declarer Qxx this can be done but only if defender starts with the J. This is probably easier to see then the case from Cohen's article. Here, It's easy enough to imagine it going JQKx and then a spot coming back. And pard, after he takes the Q with the K, might ask himself why the J was led with the T on the board, and then he will come up with the answer.
These Dare hands are, I think, meant for discussion such as this. They are extreme, but that's the point.
Added: You mentioned you just got into the tourney for the last part. I have been thinking about the last hand. You are in 4
, missing the !HA and the
AK so you cannot afford to lose another trick. The biggest danger seems to be from a ruff so I suppose the right line is to win the
lead on the board, cash three top
throwing the
, and then lead a small
from hand. This works. As the cards lie, the more everyday approach of winning the
lead in hand and leading a small
also works. Yes, Rho has a stiff
but sine he also has a stiff
no harm is done. I think cashing the
firs is the best line but usually these hands are set up so if you do not play the hands along the envisioned line you pay for it, while on this one you are saved. Maybe I am missing something but I don't see what. There was an earlier hand where this pitch to avoid the adverse ruff was exactly what was needed. Seems to be right here as well. OOPS: I see I would have, or probably would have, gone down. There are dangers and it is not possible to guard against all of them. By guarding against one, I was apt to be done in by the other. I am not so sure that the right choice is clear.
Oh, and added added: You asked about the bidding. It started on the right with 1!D: 1
- 1
- 2
- 2NT - 3NT.
I decided against providing the bidding since however it had gone a defender is going to look four !h tricks when/if he is in with the
Q.