I have often thought that opposite a passed hand a jump should be described as preemptive rather than weak. In these cases the bids are definitely preemptive, getting quickly to a reasonable contract and shutting out bidding room, but they are not weak. On hand 1, the idea is that 4
is probably a good place to play, making or not, and let them guess.
Now would I have bid 4
on board 1, red against white? I doubt it, this seems extreme even if partner is a passed hand. When opponents open the bidding we are usually aiming for a competitive auction hoping for a part score, a game, or pushing them up, but on this particular E hand I think a slam is not out of the question. So I probably double 1
. I don't think of a jump to 4
is rock bottom crazy, just I think I would start with a double. With the N hand, after P - P - 1
- 4
- P - P I guess I would probably double but yes, I am pretty tentative. As noted, 4
makes. My partner is not always going to have five spades and the A of clubs. Nor will he always make the right choice, even if there is a right choice available. So here, the jump to 4
paid off well.
Added, just for amusement: EW have a 10 card heart fit, NS have an 8 card spade fit, so LOTT predicts that the number of tricks in a spade contract plus the number of tricks in a heart contract should add to 10+8=18. In fact there are 10 ricks in spades and 10 tricks in hearts so LOTT is off by 2. It's also true that making 10 tricks in spades might depend on choices made by both the defense and the offense. Suppose the defense begins with a spade to the K, ducked. If declarer goes after his ruff by leading a heart, E wins and plays the A and another spade. Now declarer goes down at least 1. Declarer needs to establish the
suit early on to make 4
. Since the split 2-2 he can do that. Of course 4
off 1 is still good when the opponents can make 4
as they easily can here.
I'll be interested in what others think.
As to hand 2, no, I don't think I open the N hand even in third seat. I can imagine that E might think the 1
opening by N was a psych, but probably he keeps away from 4
!. My thinking with a hand such as North's, after two passes to me, is that the opponents will be playing in spades whether I open or not, and I think I will just shut up. Let them figure how to bid and play the hand without any hints from me. Give me 6-6 but with the strength in the
suit rather than the
suit and maybe I open 3rd seat, but not here. When I do open on shape my usual plan is to pull partner's first penalty double, that should clarify, and then sit for any later penalty double that he makes.
On hand 3, it's worth noting that N has two spades. South's spade suit, seven to the AKJ empty, is not nearly as self-supporting as North's heart suit in hand 1, seven to the AKQT, so S needs and gets some spade help. Further, N has the
A. Still, 4
X is going for a number. I think a 1
overcall is plenty. With careful defense, seven tricks appears to be the limit in a spade contract. While that's a bit unlucky, a 4
contract seems wildly optimistic. Added, again for amusement: There is a nine card spade fit and an eight card heart fit so LOTT says 9+8=17 total tricks. It seems pretty clear (I suppose I could be missing something) that spades can be held to 7 tricks and hearts to 9 so this time LOTT over-estimates the number of tricks by 1 while on hand 1 it under-estimates by 2. I think that LOTT, on average, comes out about right but on any particular board it is often off, sometimes in one direction, other times in the other direction. Here, on hand 3, I think 1
over 1
is very sensible.