Watch those Spot Cards

[OliverC]

Counting the hand, thinking about where the outstanding honours and what Opps' distribution is are all important elements of good Declarer play. Watching spot cards, however, can be just as important. Take this hand, which I played with Eszter5 today. If some of the bids look a little weird, remember we're playing OCP:


Dealer North, EW Game. You are South


South
  AKQ3
  A86
  QJ75
  K5


Bidding
North       East       South       West
No            No          1 ₍₁₎      1 ⁽²⁾
X⁽³⁾          1NT         X⁽⁴⁾          No
2          No          2NT⁽⁵⁾       No
3 ⁽⁶⁾     No          3NT⁽⁷⁾       All Pass

(1) 16+ any shape, not 16-23 4441
(2) Natural
(3) 5-7 any shape
(4) 100% Penalty
(5) Lebensohl, forcing 3
(6) Forced
(7) To play, with Diamond cover

West leads the Ace of Diamonds and Partner goes down with

North (Dummy)
  842
  KJ105
  42
  Q843

A led

South
  AKQ3
  A86
  QJ75
  K5

East plays the 10 on trick 1 and West switches to a small Heart. Do you play West for the 9 or the Queen? Not much to choose given that you have the 865 between the 2 hands. I played the 10 and took East's Queen with my Ace. How do you plan the play from here?

Spades or Hearts 3-3 will give you 9 tricks (7 cards in the Majors and one in each Minor), but you don't really want to open up either Minor any further at this stage.

I started out on the Spades, more to find out about the opposing distribution more than anything else. If West has 9 cards in the red suits, they're not very likely to have 3 Spades. West showed out on the 2nd round (discarding the 3 ) so I held onto my Q and ran the 8!H (If West had covered, I would find a way back to hand and run the 6 on the 3rd round). Actually, in retrospect, this is a good reason for playing the 5 from Dummy at trick 1 in that even if East's 9 forces your Ace, it's easier to finesse a second and 3rd time with KJ10 in Dummy. Anyway, West didn't cover the 8, which won the trick (East playing the 3), so I cleared the Hearts (East discarding the 6 and 9 , and you chuck the 3 on the last Heart).

Have you been watching the spot cards?

West had overcalled 1 , led the Ace, and East played the 10 at trick 1 and subsequently discarded the 9 on the last Heart. This means that West started with AK863 and it's totally safe for me to exit from Dummy with a Diamond to the Jack (East discarded the Jack of Spades). West won and was faced with the choice of opening up the Clubs for me (great for me if they have the Ace, as was likely) or leading a Diamond back into my Q7 from 86. They chose the latter (East discarding another Spade). Now it was a simple matter to lead a small Club towards the Queen. Surprisingly East won the Ace, but had to concede the rest to me for +430.

Even if West declines to take their top Diamond when exit from table with a Diamond (which is probably the expert play, I'm still home for 9 tricks because I've now won 7 and just need to concede a trick to the Ace of Clubs. East has no red cards and West no Majors so it really doesn't matter who wins the Ace of Clubs.

Perhaps surprisingly, making an overtrick in 3NT gave a decent score of 7½ IMPs. Nobody else in 3NT made 10 tricks, and over half of the field were going off in 3NT and even 2 Pairs going off in 2NT. Only 4 other Pairs bid and made 3NT.

[kenberg]

I figured it out but I there is a typos or two.

As it stands the explanation for South's second round X is that he has 5-7 hcps.

I assume:
1 16+
1 natural overcall
X 5-7
1NT natural
X general re-opening
P natural
2 shows hearts
P natural
2NT Leb->C

etc

Seems obvious now but it did take me a little bit to see what was what. The problem is that you have a superscript  2 on both the 1 and the first X, and that throws everything else off.

[OliverC]

Sorry, Ken, you're right. Corrected. No, my double of 1NT is 100% for blood. Given the vulnerability (we were green vs red) 1NTX by them is going for at least 800 if not 1100.

[kenberg]

I see. It makes sense. On a different day you might hold
AKQx
Axxx
Qx
Kxx

With that, you could just pass. You and partner both already know you have the balance of power so this will not be passed out.

And on a still different day with a good suit of your own, you can bid it.

Thus leaving the X as a penalty double.

I have it right?

Suppose  E had passed.  Which I imagine s/he should have. S has 16+, N has 5-7. it's very unlikely 1NT will be a good contract.  If 1NT was intended as a rescue I think that's a bad choice. W bid 1 on his own, E has modest support and perhaps some ruffing value, leave well enough (or bad enough) alone. You would pass out 1 X ? Given the vul down 2 suffices.

[OliverC]

Essentially, yes. After a 1 response (or a pass/Double/XX over interference) bidding is essentially natural except for the 1 rebid. If East hadn't bid here over the Double I'd have bid a 2-way 1 , Partner would have made the 1 relay, and I'd have bid 1NT to show 19-21, and now a Stayman sequence to 3NT.


Not sure I would pass 1 X for penalties. I'd not be confident enough of taking 1 off 2 or more. 1NT was a different matter.

[kenberg]

That's pretty much as I thought. There is a lesson here I think. 1NT can be expected to play badly, or at least there is no reason to think 1NT will play better than 1 .  But I would guess that there are many more hands where you, S, will want to hit 1NT than there are hands where you would feel comfortable leaving 1 X in.  So the best   rescue here is no rescue. A confident pass, and even if NS can beat 1 they may well not feel confident enough to leave it in.   If E passes, probably they will live.

There is also the defense to comment on. After the auction as it went, I can perhaps see W leading a small at T1. Possibly S has bid to 3NT on QJx, maybe E has xx, and then the are established. It's asking a lot but at least it could be. But I can't see the point at all of starting with a high . S has at least something in  for the Leb route to 3NT, and if W understands that the X was for penalty then S  probably has, well, something like what you had. The  AK of won't vanish in a cloud of smoke, or if they do there was no way to beat 3NT anyway.

I can imagine both that 3NT went down and that people did not reach 3NT. A standard uncontested auction might go 1 -1 - 2NT -P. On this auction W knows that S has four and he might well just try to not give away a trick on the opening lead. A reasonable plan when most of the strength is to the right of the opening leader. I don't know just how the are arranged but W is holding one and 5 .  Dummy has bid , so W might well select a .  Declarer has to figure out how to play the , but A and small to the J is apt to be the choice, losing to the Q.  After which 9 tricks might be hard to find.

[OliverC]

For sure I'd rather defend 1NTX than try to make 3NT