Finding the safest line

[OliverC]

This was a hand I played yesterday, which worked out okay, but I realised afterwards that I might have missed the best line, especially if I had actually been in game.

Game All, You are South, the Declarer in 3 . West leads the 8 .

North (Dummy)
  AJ5
  1076
  Q1093
  975

8 led

South
  Q942
  AK854
  J
  AK6

You can argue that we should be in game. Several Pairs were in game. Some made, some didn't. I think it probably hinges on the opening lead. Where West led a Club early on, the defence usually came to 4 tricks. I thought about bidding 4 , but I knew Partner was 6-7 HCP here, so I decided this was one I would stop out of.

How do you play and what is your plan for the hand? Clearly you have an inescapable loser in each red suit. Nothing to be done if West has QJxx. The opening lead is looking like a singleton or doubleton, so we can add a Spade loser to that. It all comes down to avoiding a Club loser assuming that the Hearts are 3-2. What do you play at trick 1?

You can make out a case for any of Dummy's 3 cards:

• Ace: This looks attractive in that you get to draw 2 rounds of trumps before EW get a chance to continue Spades and get a costly Spade ruff if West only has 2 trumps. The problem with this is that if East doesn't continue Spades, you will inevitably end up with one loser in each suit because you will not be able to get to Dummy to lead a small Spade towards your Q9 on the 3rd round of the suit
• 5: This works great if the opening lead is a deceptive one from, for example,
  K108x. I didn't think that was likely, but it does expose you to the possibility of 2 Spade ruffs if the 8 is a singleton (K!S, ruff, to a top honour, ruff)
• Jack: This still loses when the Spades are 5-1 and Opps can get 2 Spade ruffs in.
   The argument for it is that it retains the entry to Dummy. If Opps only get to ruff 1 Spade (West has 8x or East has no quick entry), I can potentially use that entry to my advantage later

Personally I think the best choice is between the 5 and the Jack. At the table, I chose the 5 on the basis that East might try inserting the 10 rather than the King. In practice East won their King and instead of giving Partner a ruff, switched to the Jack of Clubs. I won, cashed 2 top Hearts, everyone following, and played 2 rounds of Spades (West discarded a Club and a Diamond). Now I was home - a Club back to hand and my last Spade disposed of the Club loser. Still nobody ruffed, so I ruffed my losing Club and conceded one trick in each red suit for 10 tricks.

I'm still not certain which of the Jack and 5 are best. In most scenarios it probably makes little different. Any time East started with K10xxx or K10xx it makes no practical difference, I suspect. I do feel that the Ace is wrong. It only seems to help when the opening lead is a singleton and West only has 2 trumps and East has a top Diamond honour. You're still off in 4 , though, because you are definitely still going to lose one trick in each suit.


There is a case, in 3 , however, for winning the Ace of Spades at trick 1, cashing the AK and leading the J at trick 4. This is probably the safest line for 9 tricks, and the line I think I missed. Okay, you'll never make 10 tricks, but it's very unlikely you'll ever make only 8.

[kenberg]

I still like the 5 at T1 even in 3 .

As you note,  if W has a stiff he has exactly two hearts to go with that stiff, then you can lose the first four tricks on !SK, ruff, back, ruff.   There is an unlikely case in which you are still ok. If W was precisely 1=2=6=4 and his doubleton was 9x then after these four tricks you win the return, cash a high   finding that E has the last 3, but you can cash the remaining $S throwing a , play AK and anther (bot overruffed on the assumed shape, and lead dummy's last .

Ok,  if W has a stiff  and exactly 2 you are probably going down even in 3 . But with the hypothetical stiff it seems like a good bet that W has 3 or 4 $H in which case you are still making your 3 contract.

Couple that with the fact that going up with the A at least could result in going down.  A, AK, J, won by whomever holds the top trump , last trump drawn, shift.  This could get a little tricky. Defenders are not going to help with the if they can avoid it.


I like the 5. For one thing people seem to be leading the 8 from T8x lately. But even if it is a stiff I think you might well survive.

4 needs a lot! Playing standard I open 1 and I have no idea who would drive this to 4 .

[OliverC]

Well there were quite a few pairs in 4 , as I said, nearly half the field. We had an OCP auction of
1 - 1
1 ⁽¹⁾ - 1 ⁽²⁾
2 ⁽³⁾ - 3
All Pass


(1) 2-way: Hearts or 19+ balanced
(2) Semi-automatic relay
(3) Might be 3-card


I did think about 4 , but I figured that with 7 hcp and shape and decent 3-card support (Hxx) or better, Eszter would probably have bid game straight off, so one or two of those three things was probably missing.

[kenberg]

Did the 2 , combined with the previous 1 , shoe that opener has five hearts? I can imagine the answer either way. If opener could still have the balanced 19, responder's 3 could be an announcement that he is at the upper end of his negative 1 call, so opener with the balanced 19 rebids 3NT while opener with hearts passes or bids 4 . Is that it? Or did the 2 clarify that opener has hearts?

Anyway, I guess, looking only at NS cards, 4 has its chances. The J is potentially very useful, which is difficult to determine on any auction.  Declarer has exactly two tricks in clubs, he has four tricks in his hand in , assuming they break. So he needs four more in some combination of ruffs and and winners.  Sometimes yes, sometimes no, I imagine.  I think 3 is a good contract.

I need practice playing against Precision. If some other IAC player out there feels the same, s/he should let me know. I am not so much interested in various coded defenses, CRASH or whatever. I am more interested in learning through experience how to interpret auctions such as the above. Playing defensive methods is fine too, but there are many hands where it is best to pass and then just do our best. Understanding what's up can help there.

[OliverC]

Yes, any rebid in NT's by Opener shows 19+ balanced hands (various ranges). Any rebids in suits confirm the Heart suit and are essentially natural.


There are a few hand-types where Responder doesn't bid the 1 relay (0-4 with a long Minor - bids it, 5-7 with 5-card hearts and a singleton or void somewhere - bids 1NT with a Minor suit shortage and 2 with a Spade shortage).


The ranges for 19+ balanced hands are
1 - 1 - 1 - 1 - 1NT: 19-21
1 - 1 - 2NT: 22-23
1 - 1 - 1 - 1 - 2NT: 24-25
1 - 1 - 3NT: 26-27
1 - 1 - 1 - 1 - 3NT: 28-29

I really love the first one of those, because we're in 1NT and most of the rest of the world are opening the hand 2NT That's given us a swing on many occasions when Responder has almost nothing at all.


If you see me playing, Ken, the likelyhood is that it's with an OCP Partner, so give me a shout if you want some experience playing against Precision.

[kenberg]

I can see how that first one is very useful The standard auction 2NT P P P  is very ominous. Even if a finesse is working you may not be able to get to dummy to take it, and if dummy has a long suit you can't get there to cash it. So being in 1NT could be very useful. 


I'll see if I can get someone to play a bit.

[OliverC]

Yes, That first sequence gains us IMPs hand over fist time and again. We all of our "normal" 1NT continuations available plus the option of ...1NT - 3 being Puppet Stayman in case Opener has a semi-balanced 5-card Major. Over the 2NT and 3NT rebids, 3 and 4 respectively are Puppet and 4-way transfers are always in effect (raises in NT always going via Puppet).


Overall it's a very comprehensive system of responses. The "Complex" version of OCP even has sequences available to show 30-31 and 32-33 balanced hands