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Messages - wackojack

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361
Sleight of Hand / Re: A stronger in-between hand
« on: April 01, 2019, 09:56:38 PM »
I have not seen responder's hand so as an excercise I will say what I think each bid is showing in Ken's auction.
1C                                                        1S 
2D    5+C, 4+D longer clubs strong         3C      3+ clubs, 4+spades, game force so 8+HCP
3H    Tell me more                                 3NT     Didnt bid 3N over 2D so has a shortage.  5314 looks most likely. 
??
So I would guess something like at QJxxx, Axx, x, J10xx. So I would reasonbly confidently bid 6C.

Now looking back into jcreech's post I see    Partner held !S QT64, !H Q86 !D 93 !C KQJT.  Ah yes I see that qxx in hearts is also possible. 

So I agree with Ken's suggestion that 3H is the best bid to get you to the correct contract 

362
The IAC Café / Re: Hand 8, dare to declare last week
« on: March 31, 2019, 10:41:43 AM »
As you say you lose nothing by holding off the first club.  It seems the question you have to ask yourself is:  How many clubs is North leading from? 

1. If from 5 (or 4 for that matter) you can likely hoodwink North into playing out her winning clubs enabling you to to discard a blocking diamond. 
2. If from 6, then you have to give up a diamond hoping that the long diamond is with the short clubs. 

Which do you play for? 5-3 is more likely than 6-2.  Also 5  !C lead is more consistent from 5 cards than 6, as from 6 she might lead the Q . 

The dilemma is:  The only double dummy way to make is almost certainly if North is leading from 6.  However, 5-3 gives you better odds because defender North will not be up to NOT cashing her clubs. 

Hoping this analysis has no flaws.

 

363
The IAC Café / Re: Hand 8, dare to declare last week
« on: March 29, 2019, 10:11:10 AM »
Thanks Ken for a very thorough look at the possibilities.  Yes I mistakenly thought there would be a squeeze against North if the clubs and diamonds were swapped in the North South hands and North held all the boss cards in the majors.  QJ9, KQJ53, J1052, 10.  I forgot that the count was not rectified as you now have to play the hand like a no trump contract. 

On some of these DARE hands I do wonder if the recommended line does cover all realistic possibilities.  It is interesting to look at the probabilities.  The chance of  both minors NOT breaking 3-2 is about 10%.  There are 4 possible 4-4 minor suit distributions and since the chance of 0544 with North can be discounted we come down to 3 possible.  Of those 3, the contract can make with 2 of them.
 i.e. When North has both and when North has 4 clubs and South 4 diamonds.  So of those 10% of hands the expert gets another 6.7%. 

In summary:  Non expert can expect 90% success rate whereas the thinking expert can expect 97% success rate.   

364
The IAC Café / Hand 8, dare to declare last week
« on: March 27, 2019, 06:56:10 PM »
I do not know where to look for the given solution, but believe it is very complex.   

http://www.bridgebase.com/tools/handviewer.html?bbo=y&myhand=M-2534619509-1553540499

It is easy to see that if both minor suits split 3-2 then 13 tricks are available.  If one of the minor suits does not split 3-2, then 12 tricks are available.  Then can we guard against both minor suits splitting 4-1?   So there are 4 scenarios:   

1. 4 clubs and diamonds with South. 
You can play AK  !D and discover the bad news.  Then you can play clubs any way you like discover South has 4 and so ruff a club in dummy for the extra trick.

2. North has 4 clubs and South 4 diamonds.
Here you have to be very careful. You must play a small club to dummy's King and then when South shows out you are in control.  If South ruffs you can play your low club and then later make your long club.  If South discards then you play to Dummy's A spades and lead another club.  So inevitably make your 12th  trick.

3. North has 4 clubs and South 4 diamonds.  If you play as in 2, then South will ruff your 2nd club and you are left with a club loser.  Even if you initially only draw one round of diamonds you are still left with a club loser.  There is one last ray of hope.  And that is you may be able to squeeze North for your 12th.  This only works if North has all the top cards in the majors. I.e   !H KQJ and  !S QJ10(x) 

4. 4 Clubs and diamonds with North.  This is the same as 3 except looks the least likely layout. 

Conclusion:  I believe the recommended play was to play AK  !D first and then low to K  !C in dummy which does guard against layouts against 1 and 2.  With layouts 3 and 4 it does look like you play the same to the first 4 tricks and when you discover the bad news you can still make provided North has all the major suit honours.

I think quite a difficult hand

365
Sleight of Hand / Re: An in between hand
« on: March 23, 2019, 11:48:21 AM »
Sorry accident with the keys:
10 ..................... 1NT    Down grade to 14 and singleton A  !S is worth a doubleton if partner chooses to repeat spades.
6......................... 2  !C  Leaves more options open if partner has an invitational hand
3.......................... 2  !D.  You may get lucky slightly overstating your hand
2..........................  1  !D followed by 2  !C  Deceiving you partner about the minor suit length is not good.
           

366
Sleight of Hand / An in between hand
« on: March 23, 2019, 11:39:19 AM »
In  a Spurs Team match opps at our table had these hands:  South:  !S A,  !H Q76,  !D K1094,  !C AQ975......... North  !S Q652,  !H AK10,  !D AQ8,  !C K86.

South opened 1 !C, reversed into 2 !D opposite partner's 1  !S response and thereafter had no difficulty in getting to 6NT.  At the other table South opened 1  !D and rebid 2   !C opposite partner's 1 !S.  North then bid 3N which was the final contract. 

I don't want to comment too much on North's 3NT bid and can see that had she bid the 4th suit 2  !H, there was a chance that with good partnership agreements, they could have got to 6NT. 

I am just interested in South's bidding.  This is an awkward in between hand too weak to reverse, out of range for a 1NT rebid (and singleton spade makes it slightly unsuitable), and a rebid of 2  !C does not really describe the hand well.  Worst of all imo is to distort the shape by opening 1 !D and rebidding 2  !C.  This practice seems to be more prevalent on the other side of the pond from me.
 I could be wrong but I do not think an expert over here would bid this way. 

fwiiw I give the following marks:



367
The IAC Café / Re: Hands and philosophy
« on: March 22, 2019, 05:04:37 PM »
It comes down to the difference between a hand that bids 3 !H and a hand that bids 4 !C.  Both are forcing.  So after 1 !H-2 !C-2 !H:
4 !C says: I have bypassed 3NT and am committed to at least 5 !C.
3 !H says: I have club support but do not want to rule out 3N being the best contract.  So with  !S xxx,  !HAxx,  !D x,  !CAQJ10xx opposite Ken's hand she could bid 3NT counting almost certainly 9 top tricks when 5 !C would be unmakeable.  So Ken's 3 !H bid was perfect. 

So how can you get to the very decent slam?  I am mulling over how NS could confidently bid the slam and thought of a possible way.   1 !H-2 !C-2 !H-3 !H:
3 !S control (King or Ace)............... 4 !H (singleton?)
4 !S Kickback.................................5 !C 3 (1430)
6 !C

Fanciful?   

Oh I haven't said why I think 4 !C here should be forcing?  I think that 4 !C should only be passable when you are in a competitive situation when 4 !C is the only bid that you can make to compete.
 What about non competitive then say: 1 !S-1NT-2 !C-3 !C-4 !C?  That also has to be passable.  I expect there are other obvious situations where 4 !C should be passable.       
 

368
The IAC Café / Re: My thoughts on a couple of squeezes
« on: March 21, 2019, 01:26:23 PM »
Sorry to make this more complicated right away but I have to point out that if the opps do switch to a club that you do not have to take the club switch in the South hand in order to make the contract. Although I agree that the squeeze become much more complicated and harder to see.  The key is not cash all your diamonds in hand which would squeeze yourself.  Instead you leave a long diamond in hand and come down to: 
North  !S 4,   !H -,    !D5,   !C63
South  !SQ,  !HK8,   !D -,   !CK

West has  !S -,  !H A6,  !D -,  !CQ10

So west is squeezed when North leads 4 !S.  She discards Q !H say, now you play your 8 !H, West King and you ruff.  Now your   !HKing is a master.  If west discards down to Q !C, then you take with your King and the 5 !C becomes a master in the North hand.   In effect the K !D has become the E(Entry) to the North hand.

As ken says.  "Squeezes do get more complicated"

 

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