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Messages - wackojack

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331
Sleight of Hand / 7 card support
« on: May 22, 2019, 06:45:48 PM »
Here is a bit of fun.  You are playing in a 10 board  iac team match and your team is 3 imps down and on board  9 you get dealt:
 !S K3,   !H Q976543,  !D 3,  !C KQ3.  White against red.  Playing 2/1.  Partner opens 1 !S, you respond 1NT and partner jump rebids 3 !H.  I cannot think of any slower bid showing slam interest other than 4NT.  Partner responds 5 !H.  Your bid.

332
IAC Teaching Sessions / Re: Dare to declare 20/05/19 B6
« on: May 22, 2019, 06:18:26 PM »
Yes stupid me for giving east 14 cards.  I now see why running the J !C is the correct play as it will succeed if North has all 4 remaining clubs.  If instead East plays the 3 and LHO does not split her honours from K1096 or from 1096 i.e follows with the 6, then play of the 8 succeeds.  However  I would look very stupid if trumps split 2-2 with RHO having K10 or K9 when I take a 2nd finesse and it loses to the King.  I failed to see this when I wrote the questions in my first post.   :o

333
IAC Teaching Sessions / Dare to declare 20/05/19 B6
« on: May 20, 2019, 10:55:20 PM »
West  !S A109 ,  !H Q54,  !D AK2,  !C J753 

 East !S K2,  !H AK5,  !D QJ53,  !C AQ842

You are East in 6  !C with no intervention.  Lead is Q  !S. 

How do you play the clubs? 
Run jack?
Play 3 to Queen?
Play 3 to East's 8 if North plays low?
Play 3 to Q if North plays 10 or 9?
Play 3 to Ace if North plays 10 or 9?

I dont think it is obvious

334
Sleight of Hand / Re: What means what?
« on: May 17, 2019, 04:56:25 PM »
I don't expect to convert readers here to minorwood, but for the sake of completeness I will try and define when a bid of 4 !C or 4 !D should be regarded as minorwood. 

ALL of these conditions must apply:

(i) A bid that would be a slam try even if not playing minorwood
(ii) A bid made by an unlimited hand or already declared max limited opposite a limited hand.
(iii) The trump suit is agreed or implied agreed

In your auction:
1 !D (unlimited)      2 !D (unlimited suit agreed unless overridden later by no trumps)
2M (Unlimited)        3  !D (Limited)
4  !D Suit agreed

Whether or not this is minorwood depends on whether or not you view 4  !D as passable. I tend to agree with you Ken that it is passable and so cannot be minorwood.  However, if you have agreed to play minorwood and have also agreed say that you cannot pass a 4m bid, then this bid would be minorwood because it then becomes a slam try by an unlimited hand asking a limited hand with the trump suit agreed. 

As I said in an earlier post I think it it a good principle that opener limits his hand with his 2nd bid wherever possible. So opener's rebid should be 3NT.  Yes this uses up bidding room but is descriptive giving partner a good chance of judging where to go next.


 
Quote from: kenberg on May 15, 2019, 05:38:01 PM
Board 15 in the USBC today, 5th set I think, was an interesting example of both what means what and who should do what. 
Red against white, S has a 16 point NT opener (playing 14-16). N had a 4-1-7-1 shape, the !S being something like Txxx and the !D AJ9xxxx.   

At one table:

1NT - Pass -  3 !C - 3 !H
X

Ok, the 3 !C showed !D, the 3 !H was natural. The double? Ambitious I think, but he had his max, he had !H AKJ, and he had !D xx. So he does not think much of playing in !D, and thinks he can beat 3 !H.  Well, they can, but just barely. They get one !D (the KQT is in dummy), and of course three !H, and they can get a !S trick, at least if they get going on it. But N worried and so pulled to 4 !D. Now  W  got ambitious and doubled 4 !D when it came around to him. +710 for NS. The contracts were all over the place, one was 5 !D off 2 for -500 (some right choices have to be made to bring in 10 tricks, there is no hope for 11). Doubles by the NT opener at the 2 level are generally not for penalty, I was a little surprised that it was for penalty at the 3 level but from the holing I gather it was. If the 3 !H bidder had a !D void instead of the stiff T they might  not beating this or even worse if partner's 3 !D is on seven cards to the KJ9 instead if seven to the AJ9..

In this case the 3!c bid just shows a long diamond suit.  Therefore  when opps come in with 3  !H and opener doubles it cannot be for take out.  It just says "As far as I can tell I think 3  !H can be defeated comfortably"

335
Sleight of Hand / Re: What means what?
« on: May 15, 2019, 10:20:01 AM »
What stands out  for me, Ken, in your bidding sequence is that you made yourself captain.  Yet you were not able to ascertain partner's clubs holding.  Could partner have held,  !S Q109,  !H KQ,  !D QJ9743,  !C Q2.  12 points?  You might say no, because after 1 !D -2  !D - 2  !S partner would bid 2NT to show a heart stop and not 3  !D, ignoring the weak position in clubs.  Nevertheless, as you said you were uncertain about clubs. 

Instead as opener, why not rebid 3NT showing a balanced hand with 18-19 points?  Partner will then become the captain.  The issue now is what should partner bid next?  I believe that 4  !D has to be Minorwood.  (The rule being, that it is Minorwood when it is an unlimited hand is asking a limited hand)  Best I believe to be keycard and not ace asking say 0314 but could be 1430.   Then the bidding would go:
1  !D -  2  !D "invm"
3NT (18-19 bal) -  4  !D (minorwood)
4  !H (4)  -  6  !D. 

This bidding is not watertight.  Opener could easily have  !S Axxx,   !H Axx,   !D AKxx,  !C Kx and 6  !D has no hope.  So back to the drawing board.

Responder has to find out if partner has the K  !S.  So we have to continue with a hopefully agreed asking sequence where next suit up asks for Q  !D and the 2nd suit up is a specific King ask.  So we bid the 2nd step 4NT asking "Do you have a side suit King?  If so bid it and if not bid 5  !D.   Opener bids 5 !S which is what you want to hear and lo and behold you can count 12 tricks and bid 6  !D.

OK this needs a very experienced partnership but is does demonstrate that using firm bidding principles and very detailed slam bidding agreements you can bid the slam with confidence.                                   

336
Sleight of Hand / Re: What means what?
« on: May 14, 2019, 05:29:50 PM »
The first thing I noticed when I started playing in the iac was that almost universally players had "invm" on their profile.  Back in my Acol years very few played this convention and would tend to improvise on the rare occasions that responder had (a) no major to bid, (b) could not bid a number of no trumps, and (c) was stronger than a natural 3 level raise.  Nowdays I do recognise the need to have "invm" in my repertoire and in the absence of any discussion to the contrary, I would go with Max Hardy in "Bridge for the 21st Century" where he says that if you have stops in both majors, then you bid no trumps unless you have a singleton club when the splinter bid of 3  !C describes this hand. 

So after 1 !D - 2 !D, 2 !H - 3  !D - 3  !S I would be mystified.  I could only assume either (a) partner had something like  !S Jxx and was looking for something like  !S Qx in partner's hand or perhaps (b) partner has 6 !D s and 5   !H. 

Ken, you say that your actual distribution was 4342 and presumably you had 18-19HCP.  I confess that if I had this hand I would not care if my clubs were a low doubleton.  I would still happily bid 3NT.  It would now be up to the hand with 3361 and 9HCP to decide where to go next.  This raises questions.  What would bids of 4 !C  4 !D 4  !H, 4  !S be showing? 4 !C =A  !C?  4  !H  !S = Ace of that suit denying a lower ranking ace?  And most contentious 4  !D = minorwood?     

337
Sleight of Hand / Re: ok, but next time?
« on: May 12, 2019, 05:16:49 PM »
I also agree, however there is an interesting corollary to this.  Give opener the same distribution and a minimum opener say:  !S Q93,  !H KQJ95,  !D A854,  !C 5.  Here even 3 !S could be too high.  So you must raise to 2  !S immediately landing you into a good contract. 

Now give responder a near minimum for a 1 over 1 response and only 4 spades, say,  !S KJ10x,  !H 102,  !D 763,  !C QJ103  and with this hand opposite the minimum opener we find that we would be better off in 2  !H (the 5-2 fit)  not 2  !S (the 4-3 fit).  If however, we disobeyed or didnt recognise the corollary I just identified, the bidding sequence 1 !H -1  !S- 2  !D -2  !H - pass, would have found us in the best contract.

C'est la vie!  Or is there a solution?  Let us go back to the min opener opposite Ken's original responder's hand and we eschew raising with 3 cards and we rebid 2  !D.  Then we could of course pass 2NT,  Unfortunately 2N is a poor contract with responder's 10 opposite opener's 12, whereas 3 !S when responder has 5 has a much better chance than 2NT. So we are back to making an immediate raise to 2  !S with 3 which is less than prefect.     

338
Sleight of Hand / Re: ok, but next time?
« on: May 11, 2019, 07:54:21 PM »
https://www.bridgebase.com/tools/handviewer.html?bbo=y&lin=pn%7Cwackojack%2CRobot%2CRobot%2CRobot%7Cst%7C%7Cmd%7C2SQJ2HAKQ5D93CQ743%2CSK94HJ942DKT5CT86%2CS53HT863DAQ642C52%2CSAT876H7DJ87CAKJ9%7Csv%7CE%7Cah%7CBoard%2016%7Cmb%7CP%7Cmb%7CP%7Cmb%7C1S%7Can%7CMajor%20suit%20opening%20--%205%2B%20%21S%3B%2011-21%20HCP%3B%2012-22%20total%20points%7Cmb%7CD%7Can%7CTakeout%20double%20--%203-5%20%21C%3B%203-5%20%21D%3B%203-4%20%21H%3B%202-%20%21S%3B%2012%2B%20total%20points%7Cmb%7C2S%7Can%7CFree%20raise%20--%203%2B%20%21S%3B%206-10%20total%20points%7Cmb%7C3H%7Can%7CFree%20bid%3B%20new%20suit%20--%204%2B%20%21H%3B%2011-%20HCP%3B%206-12%20total%20points%7Cmb%7CP%7Cmb%7C4H%7Can%7C4%2B%20%21H%3B%2016%2B%20total%20points%7Cmb%7CP%7Cmb%7CP%7Cmb%7CP%7Cpc%7CCK%7Cpc%7CC3%7Cpc%7CC6%7Cpc%7CC2%7Cpc%7CCA%7Cpc%7CC4%7Cpc%7CC8%7Cpc%7CC5%7Cpc%7CSA%7Cpc%7CS2%7Cpc%7CS4%7Cpc%7CS3%7Cpc%7CS8%7Cpc%7CSJ%7Cpc%7CSK%7Cpc%7CS5%7Cpc%7CD5%7Cpc%7CDQ%7Cpc%7CD7%7Cpc%7CD3%7Cpc%7CH3%7Cpc%7CH7%7Cpc%7CHA%7Cpc%7CH4%7Cpc%7CHK%7Cpc%7CH2%7Cpc%7CH6%7Cpc%7CS6%7Cpc%7CHQ%7Cpc%7CH9%7Cpc%7CH8%7Cpc%7CD8%7Cpc%7CSQ%7Cpc%7CS9%7Cpc%7CD2%7Cpc%7CST%7Cpc%7CCQ%7Cpc%7CCT%7Cpc%7CD4%7Cpc%7CCJ%7Cpc%7CC7%7Cpc%7CDT%7Cpc%7CD6%7Cpc%7CC9%7Cpc%7CDJ%7Cpc%7CD9%7Cpc%7CDK%7Cpc%7CDA%7Cpc%7CHT%7Cpc%7CS7%7Cpc%7CH5%7Cpc%7CHJ%7C

Here is one that got too high

339
Sleight of Hand / Re: ok, but next time?
« on: May 11, 2019, 07:24:43 PM »
How about this then?
Sometimes partner may make a take out double of 1♥ with only 3 spades, say:
 ♠ Q42, ♥ A5, ♦ A872, ♣ KJ103.  Then say partner has:
 ♠ A873, ♥ 842, ♦ KQJ3, ♣ 94. Now, you can avoid playing in a 4-3 spade by making a responsive double.  Partner bids 3♣, you bid 3♦ and partner passes.
However, if partner has:
♠ J942,♥ A5, ♦ A872, ♣ KJ10 and you have:
♠ A873, ♥ 842, ♦ KQ, ♣ Q942
the bidding would go: 1♥-(dbl)-2♥-(dbl); p (3♦)- p -(3♠); all pass
If you were weaker say:
♠ KQJ3, ♥ 842, ♦ 84, ♣ Q942 then after 1♥-(dbl)-2♥-(?) You would go for 2♠ as you cannot afford to play at the 3 level and would therefore rather play in in a possible 4-3 spade fit at the 2 level than a 4-4 ♣ fit at the 3 level.

Does this make sense?

After 1♠ - (dbl) -2♠, it is harder to work out if there is a heart fit.  A solution is to agree that double shows 4♥ and 2NT is unusual and shows 4-4 in the minors.

340
Sleight of Hand / Re: ok, but next time?
« on: May 10, 2019, 08:29:30 PM »
Quote from: kenberg on May 10, 2019, 12:01:55 PM


A place where I think a responsive double makes sense with four cards in the major we are seeking is when the auction begins 1 !S - X - 2 !S. In this case, when fourth hand has four !H, it would be useful to have two ways of bidding 3 !H, either with a direct bid of 3 !H or a slower 3 !H, starting with the responsive double and then correcting the expected 3m to 3 !H. I think the latter should be the weaker way, but no doubt others reverse this.

This use of a responsive double after 1 !S (x)-2  !S seems to make sense.  However, I think that the slower route to 3  !H, i.e. via the responsive double should be stronger than 3  !H direct.  With a weaker hand you need to get your bid in quick because it could be your only chance.

 
Quote from: kenberg on May 10, 2019, 12:01:55 PM

Here is another case where the bots and I see things differently: After three passes I open 1 !H, it goes 1 !H - Pass - 2 !H - X.  Now after 1 !H - Pass - 2 !H - Pass I think standard is to play 3 !H as invitational. Some play 1-2-3 Stop and that has merit, but I believe it is standard to play it as an invit. However, after 1 !H - Pass - 2 !H - X I think I should be able to bid 3 !H as non-invitational. I had a 4=6=3=1 shape and I want to play 3 !H, So I bid 3 !H and ended in 4 !H. I made it on bizarre defense, but I think my 3 !H should be non-encouraging. In defense of the bot, he had shape of his own, 1=3=4=5.



I recall a few years ago I was partnering a Welsh international and after opening 1  !H the auction went 1 ! !H -2  !H -3 !H.  We were playing Acol and my understanding was 1-2-3-stop taken from an old book "Acol without tears".  I put this before BBO forums and Fred weighed in on the discussion arguing that 1-2-3 should be an invite to game. 

When it goes   1 !H - Pass - 2 !H - X. however, I feel that pass followed by 3  !H should be stronger than an immediate 3  !H for pre-emptive reasons.  This again accords with slower is stronger principle. 

341
IAC & Master Solvers Club / Re: Master Solvers Club
« on: May 10, 2019, 01:31:21 PM »
Problem A
I have tried to give probabilities for the success of each choice based on what the cards the opps are likely to hold and also what the opps would do.  Here are my thoughts:

We know that East does not have a 5 card major suit and very likely does not have 4-4 in the majors either since East would Stayman with 4441 and quite likely 4432 no matter what strength since a 4-4 fit is odds on and this is match points.  East’s most likely distributions are therefore 3451 or 3442 and West 4432 giving partner 4441.  Strength wise there are 10HCP to share between partner and East and so 5 each is most likely. 
You bid 3♣.
East with 3451distribution would likely double with 5+HCP if so EW would almost certainly get a positive score.  With equal or fewer than 5HCP EW are unlikely to double.  Probable scores:  50%  -140 (opps double), 50%  +110.
You pass
Everything hinges on what partner leads.  Given that a club lead, in order not to give away a trick, looks very low probability, then there is a 33% chance of finding the killing ♥ lead. A pointy suit lead looks like giving the opps 7 or 8 tricks.  Possible scores: 33% +300; 67% -100 or -200. 
 You bid 3NT
If west has ♠AK or ♦AK then he will lead it. If partner does not have the A in the other suit, then we score anything between -100 and -400. (Exception is when partner has Q over AK and QJ in the other suit).  What is the likelihood of having ♠AK or ♦AK? I would reckon about 50%.  Given that chance, what are the odds of partner having the A of the other suit or the magic Q and QJ stop?   30% perhaps? 
The other 50% of the time when west does not have ♠AK or ♦AK, what is the chance of a ♥ lead?  Picking 1 out of 3 suits it would be 33%. The remaining 67% chance of leading ♥ or ♠ there is still a chance of making if partner has an ace. I would rate this chance to be about 20%. Chance of making with this 50% = 0.33 + 0.67*0.2 = 0.46. 
Overall chance of making 3N = (0.46+0.3)/2 = 38%

Reward /Risk ratio
Pass is low risk low reward
3♣ is low risk moderate reward
3N is moderate to high risk and high reward.

If we go for the best chance of a positive score the 3♣ looks best.
Probability   3♣   Pass   3NT
Positive score   50%   33%   38%

Conclusion
Choices are fairly close but based on this rough analysis I will go for 3♣

342
Sleight of Hand / Re: often it's just not clear
« on: April 30, 2019, 02:00:48 PM »
I think we can rely on partner having a 6 card  !C suit.  We must also think about the rule of 15.  It is obvious that partner must be disobeying the rule of 15 for the reason that there are not enough points in the pack for your 11 points + opps overcall and mixed raise support.  (Opps absolute min 10+8 =18)  Added to your 11 = 29.  So it appears that partner opens with a maximum of 11HCP.  We can almost rule out partner having 3 spades as partner would more likely raise spades than rebid clubs.  So perhaps partner is making up for his falling short of the rule of 15 with a 5HP in spades.   

So if we give partner a 2146 distribution then we have partner's precise hand. 

East's distribution will be either, 2551 or 2542.  This makes West's distribution either 4423 or 4432.  So as South you can see that EW in a 3  !H contract will lose 2 clubs, 2 spades 1 heart and possibly 1 diamond.  Whereas in 4 !C, you will lose 1 heart, 2 diamonds and maybe 1 spade.  My money would be on making  a 4 !C contract. 

And yes LoTT works on this hand.  I find it a very good guide. 

343
IAC Teaching Sessions / Re: B2 Fun tournament
« on: April 29, 2019, 11:05:15 PM »
Robson - Segal 's" Partnership bidding"  is the most influential bridge book I have ever read. 

344
Sleight of Hand / Re: often it's just not clear
« on: April 29, 2019, 11:01:52 PM »
My thoughts:
partner opens 1 !C  in 4th and then doubles 3  !C.  This suggest that she has an unbalanced hand and unless she had 3 spades, must have more than a min opener.  It does look like the opps have a 9 card  !H fit.  If so partner has a singleton  !H.  Possible distributions then:  3136, 2146.  Or maybe opps only have an 8 card  !H fit.  Then 2236 giving opps an 8 card fit in both the red suits.
3N could be on if partner has perfect cards like Ax, J, Axxx, KQJxxx but that looks very unlikely.  More likely Ax, J, Qxxx, KQJxxx just worth a 4th in hand open.  Here 4!c is the limit and 4 !H wont make. I reject the possibility of partner having 3136 distribution because she would next bid 3  !S rather than double 3  !C.

So I vote for 4 !C and at MP double if opps compete to 4 !H.   

345
IAC Teaching Sessions / Re: B2 Fun tournament
« on: April 27, 2019, 05:33:34 PM »
I would be very interested in what Robinson has to say about continuations after a ML 2 !D overcall.  I live in Acol weak no-trump land and so it is necessary to play double for penalties.  So I am happy to play simple Landy where overcalls of 2 !D, 2 !H or 2 !S are natural.  In 15-17 no trump land you could double to show a 6 card minor suit but I think this would be ineffective as it takes up no bidding room for the LHO.  But much more effective would be a double to show 4M + longer minor.  However, since the double cannot be passed it could be made to include a 6 card diamond suit  also.    I would be interested in what Oakley has to say.  If you play entirely natural overcalls and so a 2 !C is natural it is very rare that this bid will be passed out, so it is a wasted bid.  A natural 2 !D however is much more likely to survive as the final contract or stop the opps in finding the optimum.   

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