IAC Forums
Chew the Fat! => Sleight of Hand => Topic started by: wackojack on September 19, 2019, 09:52:34 AM
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This came up in a Regional tourney last weekend. You have vul v nv:
!S void
!H 1098632
!D K1092
!C A63
Playing 5542 15-17, partner opens 1 !C; RHO overcalls 3 !S your call? In the style of "Master Solver" please award marks out of 10 for the following? (i) Pass? (ii) 4 !H? (iii) double? (iv) other?
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Pass = 10
Double = 4
4 !H = 2
Preempts work. Although I have great shape, I'm about an Ace short to take action. There's no guarantee partner doesn't have a stiff !H and my LHO the missing !H honors behind me.
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Tough, A practical consideration is that it would take me a while to decide, so if I then pass partner would not be able to re-open unless that action was very clear cut. I guess I double. So:
X: 10 points
An in tempo pass: 6 points
Obvious huddle followed by a pass: 0 points
4 !H: 4 points.
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Agreed - not for the feint of heart.
Pass - 10
Double (if negative doubles played that high) - 7
Double (if penalty) - 5
4 !H - 2
Other - 2
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!S A K 7 4
!H A K 5 4
!D 7
!C 10 9 4 2
!S Q 6 !S J 10 9 8 5 3 2
!H Q J !H 7
!D A Q J 8 6 !D 5 4 3
!C K J 8 7 !C Q 5
!S - -
!H 10 9 8 6 3 2
!D K 10 9 2
!C A 6 3
I passed with the South and West raised to 4 !S. As you can see double would get us to the right contract and so would 4 !H, provided partner does not get too excited.
In retrospect I think double is the best bid as it does not preclude a club or diamond contract.
At the other table, my hand doubled, 4 !S - 5 !H all pass. Match -12 imps. X imps -9.53
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This is one of those hands where even though X was my choice and X works out, I am not at all confident of it. My initial choice was pass but then I started thinking. A major part of my flip really was that I figured I would, at the table, be thining too long and too obviously for my partner to be able to reopen if he had the hand for it. Surely the director would be called (this was a regional, you mentioned, not a friendly club game, although the director should be called there also) or, more likely, partner would just look at his hand and figure my thinking precluded him from acting unless it is really obvious to do so. Anyway, on the current hand he surely would not act over a pass by me, in tempo or not.
The hand is a bit lucky, more than a bit. We have a ten car heart fit, the trumps split 2-1 (likely but not certain and there was a pre-empt), the !S AK not only provides 2 tricks it also takes care of the !C losers.
One worry about my X was that they would go on to 4 !S, which they did, and partner would double, expecting me to have more than I have. I would be very uneasy about passing that X, and even more uneasy about pulling it. As the cards are, partner is not doubling 4 !S and, for that matter, we can set it 2 tricks if he does. On the auction, getting two top trump and a ruff seems unlikely, but so it is. LOTT actually is accurate here, we can take 11 ricks, we can hold them to 8.
All's well that ends well!
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Jack, I somewhat expected a hand like this, simply because you posted it. But it does not change my view. At the table--I pass.
Preempts work.
[Added] I do think it's an interesting hand as shapely hands often are. So I created a BW poll to satisfy my curiosity. Will report back in a day or so after some numbers roll in.
[Added later]
A moderate sampling, 52 votes so far, but enough to report.
What is most significant to me is not so much the numbers, but the people who voted. In each of the three bids people chose there are outstanding players. I often look at not the numbers, but who voted. Pass and 4 !H both garnered world-class player votes.
As of this writing there are the three bids we expected:
Pass = 37%
4 !H = 40%
Dbl = 23%
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1 !C -(3 !S) -? !S void, !H 1098632. !D K1092, !C A63.
Here is a go at assessing an average strength and distribution for the other 3 hands:
Spades In the light of RHO's 3 !S overcall and partner's opening bid of 1 !C, I will assume that RHO has 7 spades for the overcall. There are 6 spades in the other 2 hands. The median spit will be 3-3.
Hearts: There are 7 hearts to be shared into the other 3 hands. There are 6 spaces in RHO's hand and 10 spaces in partner's and LHO's hands. So we would expect on average that partner and LHO tp have 10/6 as many spades as RHO. The nearest to this in whole numbers is 322. So do we give partner 3 or 2 hearts?
Minors I have 7 minor suit cards and the remaining 19 must be shared into the other 3 hands.
I come up with an average distribution for partner to be 3334.
Strength: I reckon RHO's most likely point will be 7. This leaves 13 apiece between partner and LHO. This fits in with partner's opening bid of 1 !S. It could be pessimistic as we "know" that partner has 12+ HCP and LHO could have far fewer. Here then is a likely layout:
!S Kxx
!H Qxx
!D AJx
!C K10xx
!S Jxx !S AQ10xxxx
!H AK !H Jx
!D Qxxxx !D xx
!C QJxx !C xx
!S void
!H 1098632
!D K1092
!C A63
I have deliberately included 3 wasted points in dummy (K !S) and still 4 !H is comfortable.
Nevertheless I note that the experts biggest vote goes to "pass". Thanks for the research Todd.
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This hypothetical hand illustrates a problem It's true that 4 !H makes. It also seems likely to me that after S bids 4 !H then W will bid 4 !S. North has !H Qxx and might well not realize that S has bid 4 !H on six cards to the T, the !D K, and the !C A. And of course the void. But still. Both 4 !S and 5 !H go down, or so I think. But will N restrain himself/herself from going to 5 !H? Maybe, maybe not. A vul game is maybe there, and N might not be confident 4 !S is even going down.
Interchage the !C J and 6 abd then 5 !H makes, while 4 !S is still only off 1. N will be tempted!
Well, if we wanted easy we could have played 500. Or Uncle Wiggly.