Another ruff hand

[kenberg]

   
   North
AJT98
AK54
J
A42
   
 
     South
753
QT62
A64
T53


Matchpoints
Nobody vul, East deals, I am South

 P       P      3     X
 P    3     4    4    
 P      P        P


The opening lead is the 4.

As Sam said about Green Eggs and Ham, I do not like this, not one little bit.

Surely the !s lead is a stiff. Maybe a ray of hope? I play small, the Q appears, a comes back, ruffed.
Note that if W started with three hearts I am now making the hand. I will be able to draw trump in two rounds since W is now down to two trump. Say that W  plays a at T3. I take the A, draw two rounds of trump,  play to A, another ruffing out the Q, A and !ruff a , , another   pitching a , lose a , ruff the last .

This is what I was hoping for and why I posted this. It's another hand where taking the ruff would be wrong, they take two and two if they simply shift to a at T2. 


The good news is that a was continued at T2, the bad news is that W ruffed this with her stiff , yes she was 1-1 in the majors, but the very very good news is that !E chose to lead the K back at T2 after which, with a little care, I can bring in 10 tricks.

This play of the high at T2 could not be anticipated, but I think a small from dummy is the best shot at making 4. As mentioned, if W started with three hearts, and if E produces a , any , at T2 then I am making it.

I guess the high at T2 was intended as suit preference. E has the K and she reasonably expected her partner to have the A.

So the fact that it actually made was a fluke, but the point that ruffs are not always best is valid.If she had led back a small at T2 I think I can bring in 9 tricks, even with the 4-1 trump split.

   

[OliverC]

Yes, certainly it's definitely best not to go up with the Ace at trick 1. On any normal distribution if West is about to ruff Spades, they will probably have at least 2 if not 3 trumps, and holding the AJ1098 in Dummy means that if they do ruff the second trick (East having led back a small one), you now have a marked ruffing finesse against East in Spades once you've sorted the trumps out. Moreover ducking the Spade at trick one also pretty much assures you of a Spade continuation rather than the killing Club switch.

[kenberg]

I think for it to work, after the ruffed  return, it has to be that W started with three trump. E with 2. If E started with 3 then if it starts , back ruffed, , it won't work if I draw three rounds of trump.  ! gave some thought to maybe it would work if I drew only two rounds, but I don't think that it does.

So it's a bit of a Hail Mary. I need a return ruffed and I need W to have started with 3 trump. But nothing else has a chance so it is reasonable, and I think I still make 9 tricks when the hoped for magic holding isn't there.